πŸŽ“ Student-loan szn

…and hotel strikes, net neutrality, and the FTX trial

The IOUs are coming (Hans Gutknecht/Getty Images)

Last Week's Market Moves
Dow Jones
33,508 (-1.34%)
S&P 500
4,288 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq
13,219 (+0.06%)
Bitcoin
$26,868 (+1.10%)
Dow Jones
33,508 (-1.34%)
S&P 500
4,288 (-0.74%)
Nasdaq
13,219 (+0.06%)
Bitcoin
$26,868 (+1.10%)

Hey Snackers,

Panera Bread can't stop thinking about the Roman Empire… menu. The chain is hopping on a TikTok trend with a "Roman Empire" menu featuring Caesar salad and cinnamon crunch bagels, which ancient icons like Julius Caesar surely consumed. Call it Panera Bread and Circuses. 

The S&P 500 had its worst month of the year in September, losing 5%. On Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation index showed prices cooling in August. But sentiment was low last week after the US central bank suggested rates could stay higher for longer. On Saturday, Congress signed a stopgap funding bill to avert a government shutdown through November 17.

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Messy

Student-loan borrowers face a hot mess as the US braces for payments to restart

On your mark, get set… loans. After a three-year pause, student-loan repayments are restarting for 28M Americans. That's 5X more than the number of borrowers who typically enter repayment in an entire year (picture: new grads). While we knew this was coming, borrowers are facing extra stress as student-loan systems buckle under the influx. Frustrated borrowers are dealing with incorrect bills, glitchy websites, and long hold times. Adding to woes:

  • Overwhelmed: Because loan servicers like Navient quit the federal student-loan biz during the pandemic, 40% of borrowers have a different servicer than when they last made a payment. Other servicers have a bigger workload with a smaller staff — like Nelnet, which has eliminated 500+ jobs this year.

  • Confused: Some borrowers who signed up for the Biden admin's new Save plan (designed to cut monthly payments in half) are actually seeing their payments increase from prepandemic. That's because the income-driven benefit doesn't go into effect until next July.

  • Understaffed: The Federal Student Aid office (which oversees loans) received $800M less than what the Biden admin requested in this year's funding bill. FYI: a gov't shutdown would only add to the processing mess.

Retailers brace for impact… While the three-year grace period was a financial boon for consumers and companies, pandemic savings have dwindled. Now, student-loan payments could pull $100B out of Americans' budgets in the next year, with 56% of borrowers saying they'll be choosing between making repayments and buying necessities. That's concerning for retailers, which rely on discretionary splurges. Student loans were mentioned 40+ times in recent S&P 500 earnings calls, as the likes of Target, Walmart, and Best Buy warned they might feel a squeeze.

THE TAKEAWAY

Easing into cold water can ease the shock… Borrowers can breathe a (slight) sigh of relief knowing their credit scores won't be dinged for nonpayment for the first 12 months, though interest will accrue. Companies are hoping that the long grace period, plus this buffer, can cushion the blow to consumers, who've stayed surprisingly resilient through years of inflation.

Sponsored by Masterworks

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When incredibly rare and valuable assets come up for sale, it's typically the wealthiest people that end up taking home an amazing investment. But not always…

One platform is taking on the billionaires at their own game, buying up and securitizing some of history's most prized blue-chip artworks for its investors. Now you can build a portfolio of iconic art, curated by industry-leading research and acquisition teams – without having to fork over tens of millions to get in the game.

It's called Masterworks. Their nearly $1 billion collection includes works by greats like Banksy, Picasso, and Basquiat, all of which are collectively owned by everyday investors. When Masterworks sells a painting – like the 16 it's already sold – investors reap their portion of the net proceeds.

It's easy to get started but offerings can sell out in minutes. However, as a trusted partner, Snacks readers can skip the waitlist to join with this exclusive link.*

Zoom out

Stories we're watching

"I do not stay at the InterContinental"… not just Drake. More hotel workers could walk out of jobs. Nevada's 60K-member hospitality-worker union recently voted to authorize a strike against 22 casino-resorts including Caesars and MGM. They want a new contract with pay raises as the hotel industry has lost 238K+ workers since the pandemic. Meanwhile, LA hotel workers who started striking this summer are intermittently picketing against properties owned by Marriott, Hyatt, Hilton, and IHG. Lionel Messi even canceled his stay at the Fairmont in Santa Monica in support.

5 bars, low speeds… Last week the FCC proposed reviving net-neutrality rules for the first time since 2018. Refresher: net neutrality prevents providers (like: AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast) from slowing or blocking internet speeds based on how much customers pay. Connectivity was a must-have for most Americans during the pandemic, and about a dozen states already have net-neutrality rules. Next week the FCC will vote to bring the federal rule back, but broadband providers are expected to fight it.

Events

Coming up this week

SBF'd… The crypto trial of the decade begins tomorrow. Officials charged former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried with fraud and money laundering, and his day in court could stretch into a weeks-long spectacle. Former FTX execs are expected to testify against crypto's once-called "White Knight," including his ex-girlfriend and a former fraternity brother. If convicted, SBF could face life in prison (experts say 10-20 years is more likely). Meanwhile, the FTX bankruptcy is trucking along: management says it's recovered $7B+. 

A rivalry's a-brewin'… Constellation Brands is expected to report bubbly results on Thursday. Constellation owns a bar cart's worth of alcohol brands, from Svedka Vodka to Cook's Champagne and Modelo. Modelo Especial became the US's best-selling beer this spring after a boycott of former titleholder AB InBev's Bud Light saw celebs like Kid Rock destroying their cans. AB InBev's US revenue sank 11% in the second quarter, but total revenue was buoyed by strong international sales.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights

  • Pelulu: After years of trying to copy each other, Lululemon and Peloton are spinning up a five-year partnership. Peloton classes will stream on Lulu's fitness app, while Lulu will become Peloton's main apparel partner.

  • Prime: The Federal Trade Commission and 17 states filed a mega antitrust suit against Amazon to "pry loose" what the FTC calls its ecomm monopoly. Regardless of who wins, the regulatory heat could pressure Big Tech to make changes.

  • Action: After a five-month strike, Hollywood writers reached a contract deal with studios and streamers. Writers secured more than analysts first thought possible, including wage increases and AI protections.

What else we're Snackin'
  • Page: A database of 183K+ pirated books used to train AI is fueling a class-action suit joined by literary stars like George R.R. Martin and Jodi Picoult. The case could shape AI copyright laws.

  • Isle: Cruise companies like Norwegian and Carnival have spent millions resort-beach-ifying private islands. As popular stops like Nassau and Jamaica are overrun, private beaches create a more exclusive escape.

  • PitStop: Operators of highway rest stops like Pilot are investing in amenities (think: dog parks, restaurants, lounges) to attract EV road-trippers as they charge up. Pilot's spending $1B on upgrades.

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The Daily Newsletter
Get fresh takes on financial news every week day. Try a sample:

πŸ‹ Peloton's Lululemonade • Sep 29, 2023
πŸ›‘ Gov't shutdown jitters • Sep 28, 2023
⚖️ Amazon's FTC suit • Sep 27, 2023

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Snack Fact Of the Day

The US has lost 7M workdays to walkouts this year, the most in over two decades

This Week
  • Monday: UN World Habitat Day

  • Tuesday: Job openings. Earnings expected from McCormick and Cal-Maine Foods

  • Wednesday: Sam Bankman-Fried trial begins. Earnings expected from Tilray and Helen of Troy

  • Thursday: Initial jobless claims. Earnings expected from Constellation Brands, Lamb Weston, ConAgra, and Levi

  • Friday: September US jobs report 

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: AB InBev, Amazon, Comcast, Lamb Weston, Norwegian, and Walmart

*Advertiser's disclosure: See important disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate... See more

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