| | | | |  | | By Ursula Perano, Daniella Diaz and Burgess Everett | | | With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team
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Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) offered this grim forecast: “Gun control is a piece of cake compared to immigration reform.” | Darko Vojinovic/AP | EVERYBODY HAS THEIR BORDER PRICE AND NO ONE WANTS TO PAY With less than three legislative weeks left before 2024, the fate of a massive national security aid bill hinges — at least for Republicans — on senators’ ability to reach a bipartisan immigration agreement. But the prospects of striking that deal look poor, at best. Take it from Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who negotiated a bipartisan deal on gun control last summer and offered this grim forecast: “Gun control is a piece of cake compared to immigration reform.” Here are three reasons why things look off track: 1. Six senators — two Democrats, three Republicans and Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) — are carrying the weight of the entire negotiation. Leadership on either side isn’t intimately involved, nor is the White House. That could easily lead to a deal that doesn’t work with members on both the far left and the far right of the Senate. For instance, some Democrats are ticked off that immigration policy changes are up for discussion at all. A group of 11 senators led by Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) sounded off about the entire arrangement on Wednesday. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who cosigned that statement, said he’s particularly concerned that the core negotiating group does not include any Hispanic senators. “None of us are involved in these negotiations,” said Menendez, who’s usually involved in immigration talks but has been sidelined because of his criminal charges. “That would be like having civil rights or voting rights legislation being negotiated by people when you have three African American senators.” 2. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republicans are demanding that as much as possible of H.R. 2 — the conservative House-passed immigration bill — be included in any deal. And GOP senators coming out of lunch with Johnson Wednesday seemed on board. But H.R. 2 includes provisions like continuing to build the border wall and significantly restricting asylum claims. Those topics are no-gos for Senate Democratic leadership. Shortly after Johnson’s trip to the Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told POLITICO, “H.R. 2 will get nothing done, if they insist on [it]. Not only will it not pass the Senate, it will not pass the House because they need Democratic votes." 3. Simply put, a deal on immigration remains a white whale for Congress. This is an issue that lawmakers haven’t been able to reach any sort of consensus on in nearly four decades, with the last fruitful attempt in 2018 crushed by then-President Donald Trump.
It would be a major breakthrough if senators were able to reach a deal by next week, which is when Schumer wants to call a vote on the spending bill to aid Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. That vote could very well fail if it comes to the Senate floor. But in tandem, that could further raise the stakes of the talks. "The people in these negotiations are working hard and they're in good faith, but we've all seen negotiations around here. The plane never lands. It never lands. Most of the time it crashes. And that's where we are,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said in an interview. We can’t forget about the one lingering reason why these talks could succeed, though. Republicans have made clear they won’t support Ukraine aid if there aren’t border security measures included in a supplemental funding package. That could be enough pressure for a sufficient number of Democrats to support border measures. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) has a horse in each race. He’s an adamant proponent of further Ukraine aid, but he’s also pushed for border improvements that could help his Arizona constituents. With the two issues colliding, he offered a succinct assessment: “We're all going to have to ultimately make a choice. And we're having those discussions right now,” Kelly said in an interview. — Ursula Perano, Daniella Diaz and Burgess Everett
| | | | A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes: Powering the nation's supply chain, the U.S. business of chemistry drives innovation in semiconductors, energy, healthcare, and more. But urgent action is needed! Already the most heavily regulated sector, America’s chemical industry faces growing regulatory overload. The Biden Administration and Congress must correct course and do a better job understanding the negative impact of additional, unduly restrictive regulations on a fragile supply chain and economy before it’s too late. Learn more – Chemistry Creates, America Competes | | | GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Nov. 29, where we are still trying to get to know Speaker Mike Johnson – no better reason than for him to release his Spotify Wrapped! MIKE DROP: JOHNSON TOUTS CASH MONEY, BEST TARGETS When Speaker Mike Johnson took the gavel, his party feared that he might struggle to keep up with predecessor Kevin McCarthy on the fundraising chase that’s critical for House Republicans trying to hang onto the majority next fall. But so far, Johnson is doing well dispelling those fears. He announced in a closed-door conference meeting on Wednesday that he would transfer $2.5 million to the House GOP campaign arm, with Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) kicking in a $2 million transfer of his own. (Scalise has raised $10 million in grassroots funding this cycle, a weighty haul for the majority leader.) Johnson’s latest impressive haul suggests that as unknown of a commodity as he was to many donors, there’s a fundraising advantage inherent in being the top dog. It helps that Johnson has held fundraisers with deep-pocketed members and their similarly wealthy friends – Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) recently raised $1.4 million with the speaker at a fundraiser he hosted at his mansion. But Johnson has boosted online fundraising, too. Coming up: Johnson will head to fundraisers in New York this weekend for a NRCC donor retreat. While he’s there, he will attend a fundraiser hosted by Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman and Wayne Berman, according to a Republican strategist with direct knowledge of the plans. The money raised there is slated to benefit Johnson’s joint fundraising committee as well as Empire State GOP candidates. Johnson will also attend a fundraiser for Lawler this weekend. And that’s not all… SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON: Johnson has a growing list of GOP candidates he is trying to promote heading into next year’s election season. A list of more than two dozen candidates were projected on screen during Wednesday’s House GOP chiefs’ meeting in a bid to help stoke extra contributions. Some of the names on Johnson’s preferred list are familiar figures like former Reps. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) and Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-N.M.), who both lost reelection last cycle. Also on his slate is Tom Barrett of Michigan, who lost his bid last cycle and is now looking to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) as she seeks a Senate seat. Here are his other names:
- AK-At Large: Nancy Dahlstrom, the Alaskan lieutenant governor who is challenging Rep. Mary Petola (D-Alaska) for the state’s at-large seat
- CA-09: Kevin Lincoln, who is looking to unseat Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.)
- CA-47: Scott Baugh, who is running for Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Calif.) seat as she runs for Senate
- CT-05: George Logan, who is challenging Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.)
- IL-17: Joe McGraw, who is challenging first-term Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.)
- IN-01: Randy Niemeyer, who is challenging Rep Frank Mrvan (D-Ind.)
- KS-03: Prasanth Reddy, who is looking to unseat Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in Kansas
- ME-02: Austin Theriault, who is vying for Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s seat in Maine
- MN-02: Joe Terran, who is looking to replace incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.)
- OH-09: Craig Riedel, who is looking to win the seat from Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur (Ohio)
- PA-08: Rob Bresnahan, who is vying for the seat held by Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright (Pa.)
- PA-17: Rob Mercuri, who is running against first-term Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.)
- VA-07: Derrick Anderson, who previously lost the GOP primary in the race for Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s Virginia seat. He’s now running against as Spanberger vies for governor.
— Olivia Beavers
| | | | GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE. | | | | | SPY POWERS CAUSING BIG PROBLEMS There’s talk of inserting a short-term extension of a soon-to-expire foreign surveillance powers into a sweeping defense policy bill – and it’s getting swift backlash, potentially imperiling the entire defense measure in the House. Congress has until the end of the year to reauthorize what’s known as Section 702, a provision of intelligence surveillance law that’s meant to target foreigners abroad but has stoked controversy for its ability to sweep in Americans. And with time running short, congressional leaders are planning to link an extension of the authority to the annual defense authorization bill, a person familiar with the plan told us. Johnson told Senate Republicans during a private Wednesday lunch that he wanted to extend the authority until early February, according to another person familiar. According to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Johnson urged senators not to “leak this.” (They clearly didn’t listen.) But leadership is facing intense pressure to reverse course. More than 50 lawmakers sent them a letter warning against linking the surveillance extension to the defense bill. And opposition is growing. Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), whose committee has worked on a long-term reauthorization, told us that he was “not a fan” of attaching the two, calling it the “wrong way to do it.” Jordan added that he has said as much to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Worth noting: Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said that he thinks GOP leaders are trying to link the two issues to help lock in votes for the defense bill – that top Republicans will push the rank-and-file on the need to extend a crucial intelligence capability. “‘Oh my god, FISA is expiring, we’re going to kill everybody in the world because FISA expired,” Roy joked about Republican leaders’ endgame, referring to the acronym for the broader law that includes Section 702. While there’s pushback against including an extension in the defense bill, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) – who has helped spearhead the surveillance talks so far – said that he still wanted to go even further by adding an intelligence committee reauthorization to the defense bill. The math: The final defense policy bill isn’t done yet, meaning that leaders could always decide to ax the surveillance powers extension. And notably members still haven’t gotten final text, with the surveillance issue still on the table. But a handful of aides and lawmakers predicted to us that, if the extension survives, it would stoke enough opposition to possibly sink the defense bill in the House. Others involved, however, cautioned it was too soon to say. Reminder: The defense bill is likely to come to a vote on the suspension calendar, which means it needs to clear a higher two-thirds threshold to pass the House. – Jordain Carney
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | A pomeranian was lost. Then Miss Francis Buttercup was found. Halloween might be back for a certain staffer. Strangely enough, this is not the weirdest thing we’ve seen in this building. Paging Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.
| | | | A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes:   | | | QUICK LINKS Activists wanted a Middle East cease-fire. They got something else from Dems, from Nicholas Wu and Ursula Perano Boebert leans into environment policy in bid to win over critics, from Kelsey Brugger and Jennifer Yachnin at E&E News Think Companies Are Struggling to Fill Offices? Look at the Government, from Peter Grant at The Wall Street Journal
| | | | A message from American Chemistry Council – Chemistry Creates America Competes: Our nation’s supply chain runs on the U.S. business of chemistry. When chemistry creates, America competes.
Semiconductors, automotive, healthcare, infrastructure, and energy all rely on chemistry. From EV’s to smartphones, America’s chemical manufacturers power innovations we can't live without.
Unfortunately, regulatory overload and lack of coordination between the White House and its agencies is handicapping American chemistry’s ability to create products that support national priorities, jeopardizing the economy and America’s ability to compete with countries like China. This tidal wave of unduly restrictive regulations could disrupt the supply chain for crucial technologies and everyday products.
President Biden and his administration need to understand how vital chemistry is to the supply chain when it comes to making the things America and the world can’t live without. The Biden Administration and Congress must support policies that empower chemistry, promote American innovation, and strengthen U.S. competitiveness. Learn more – Chemistry Creates, America Competes. | | | TRANSITIONS Joe Barry is now the Executive Director of the Republican Study Committee. He was previously the RSC Policy Director. Abby McHan is now Policy Director of the Republican Study Committee. She was previously on the RSC policy staff and before that, was the legislative director for Rep. Michael Cloud. Neil Kornze is now senior vice president at Cassidy & Associates. A former director of the Bureau of Land Management, Kornze most recently served as chief of staff to Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). More from POLITICO’s E&E News. Joe MacFarlane is now legislative director for Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.). He previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.), and is a Jackie Walorski alum. TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House is in session. The Senate is in session. THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL 9:15 a.m. Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) and others will host a press conference to urge passage of the Outdoors for All Act. (House Triangle)
| | TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Eric Bazail-Eimil correctly answered that John Lewis was the pupil of Dr. King's in non-violent protest, and future Presidential Medal of Freedom winner worked on RFK's 82 day quest for the White House. TODAY’S QUESTION from Eric: What long-time Florida lawmaker and former Rules Committee chair was ousted from his Senate seat in a 1950 primary, returned to Congress as an anti-Castro, pro-labor, House Democrat representing South Florida, and died in office as the oldest member of the House in 1989? He was succeeded by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to huddletrivia@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela. | | | | Follow us | | | | |
