AI, drug development, and big, big bucks

The ideas and innovators shaping health care
Nov 20, 2023 View in browser
 
Future Pulse

By Shawn Zeller, Carmen Paun, Daniel Payne, Ruth Reader, Erin Schumaker and Evan Peng

follow the money

A researcher points at a computer screen displaying partial results of the genome sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (Covid-19) and its variants at the Centre National de Reference (CNR - National Reference Centre) of respiratory infections viruses of the Pasteur Institute in Paris on January 21, 2021. (Photo by Christophe ARCHAMBAULT / AFP) (Photo by CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP via Getty Images)

Artificial intelligence can mine millions of research papers to find overlooked drug targets. Christophe Archambault | AFP via Getty Images

40.2 percent

An estimate of the annual growth rate in revenue connected to the use of artificial intelligence in drug discovery from the firm MarketsandMarkets

A leading use case for artificial intelligence in health care is in the development of new drugs.

Market researchers agree that employing AI to develop drugs is nascent, but they expect it to grow fast.

In a new report, the consulting firm MarketsandMarkets predicts growth in revenue related to AI’s use in drug discovery to rise from $0.9 billion this year to $4.9 billion by 2028.

Vantage Market Research expects big growth, too: 24 percent a year to $7.1 billion in 2030.

Why so? AI could contribute to drug discovery by helping design the synthetic molecules that start the manufacturing process.

Machine learning could help better predict which drugs will prompt a response from the body or attack a disease.

MarketsandMarkets believes the push toward precision medicine, in which treatments are tailored to the individual, will drive AI use.

The firm argues in its report that AI offers hope in sifting through “intricate genetic and molecular datasets” so drugmakers can find the therapies that work best for individuals.

Vantage Market Research points to AI’s ability to mine millions of research papers to find overlooked drug targets.

Who’s ahead? The U.S. is, according to MarketsandMarkets, with control of close to half of the market and home to key players like semiconductor chip maker Nvidia, biotech company Recursion, Microsoft and Google.

What’s next? MarketsandMarkets says regulators will need to adapt to a changing drug development process that could potentially slow the growth of AI’s role.

 

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WELCOME TO FUTURE PULSE

Green fields on the shores of São Miguel Island, Portugal

São Miguel Island, Portugal | Erin Schumaker

This is where we explore the ideas and innovators shaping health care.

Debt jubilee: A campaign to cancel medical debt started by a 38-year-old woman who died from ovarian cancer raised $500,000 in a week, The New York Times reports. The campaign is raising money for the non-profit RIP Medical Debt, which buys and cancels medical debt from households with heavy debt burdens. The funds will amount to an estimated $50 million in debts paid off.

Share any thoughts, news, tips and feedback with Carmen Paun at cpaun@politico.com, Daniel Payne at dpayne@politico.com, Evan Peng at epeng@politico.com, Ruth Reader at rreader@politico.com or Erin Schumaker at eschumaker@politico.com.

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Today on our Pulse Check podcast, host Kelly Hooper talks with POLITICO health care reporter Chelsea Cirruzzo, who reports on the CDC's distribution of an additional 77,000 doses of a monoclonal antibody shot protecting infants from severe RSV amid ongoing shortages as the winter illness season approaches.

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POLICY PUZZLE

Surgeon General Vivek Murthy looks at a wall of art.

Better social connection can be a low-cost, high-yield approach to improving people's lifespans and their quality of life globally, Murthy said. | The Office of the U.S. Surgeon General

Surgeon General Vivek Murthy is taking his campaign against loneliness global.

Murthy chairs a newly launched World Health Organization Commission on Social Connection, aimed at addressing loneliness as a pressing health threat.

He and Chido Mpemba, the African Union youth envoy, will co-chair the group of 11 policymakers, thought leaders and advocates.

Why it matters: About a quarter of the world’s older people experience social isolation, and 1 in 6 teenagers feel isolated and lonely, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters this month.

And social isolation can have a negative impact on health: Loneliness is associated with a 50 percent increase in dementia and a 30 percent increase in both stroke and heart disease, he said.

“We are now poised to do something that we have never done before, which is to come together as a global community to address the public health challenge of loneliness and isolation,” Murthy said.

Social connection is good for people’s health and for their communities, he added.

“If approached thoughtfully, improving social connection can be a low-cost, high-yield approach to improving both the lifespan and the quality of life or health span of the global community,” Murthy said.

What’s next? The commission will set a global agenda on social connection and build collaborations aimed at finding solutions for countries, communities and individuals to address social isolation and loneliness, the WHO said.

The timing is crucial, as pandemic-induced isolation has undermined social connections, according to the WHO.

 

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WORLD VIEW

A member of the Economic Freedom Fighters holds a sign with the word We Want a Vaccine as they march to the South African Health Products Regulatory Authority offices in Pretoria, on June 25, 2021.

People demand a Covid vaccine in Pretoria, South Africa, in June 2021.| | Phill Magakoe/AFP via Getty Images

​​The competition for masks, personal protective equipment and vaccines during the pandemic led many governments — from Europe to Africa — to attempt to set up their own production of health care supplies to avoid relying on others during an emergency.

Even so: Self-reliance has its limits, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the World Trade Organization’s director-general, said at a global health security and diplomacy event organized by the Council on Foreign Relations and the State Department last week.

“Making everything at home does not necessarily equal resilience, as demonstrated by last year’s baby formula crisis in the U.S.,” Okonjo-Iweala said.

What’s next? What would build resilience, Okonjo-Iweala added, is “a deeper and more diversified global production base that can count on open and predictable trade in inputs and finished products.”

This is re-globalization, the WTO boss said: a reimagining of global production networks that make them more resilient and inclusive.

 

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