Congress gets a reality check

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Nov 30, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

HENRY KISSINGER, 1923-2023 — POLITICO: “Henry Kissinger, a ruthless practitioner of the art of realpolitik who had an outsize impact on global events and who won a premature Nobel Peace Prize for ending a war that kept going, has died. A cunning, erudite strategist whose transformative diplomatic efforts helped to reshape the world, Kissinger was 100.”

The obits: “Henry Kissinger Is Dead at 100; Shaped Nation’s Cold War History,” by NYT’s David Sanger … “Henry Kissinger, who shaped world affairs under two presidents, dies at 100,” by WaPo’s Thomas Lippman … “Henry Kissinger, Who Helped Forge U.S. Foreign Policy During Vietnam and Cold Wars, Dies at 100,” by WSJ’s Alan Cullison … “Henry Kissinger, secretary of state under Presidents Nixon and Ford, dies at 100,” by AP’s Nancy Benac

The takes: “Henry Kissinger, the Hypocrite,” by Ben Rhodes in NYT … “Henry Kissinger’s Century,” by Niall Ferguson in WSJ … “Half a century later, Kissinger’s legacy is still up for debate,” WaPo editorial

The tributes: “His ideas, his diplomatic skill, and his sheer force of will in service to our country changed the course of history,” said MITCH McCONNELL. … “[O]ne of the most consequential figures of the 20th century,” said MIKE JOHNSON. … “America has lost one of the most dependable and distinctive voices on foreign affairs,” said GEORGE W. BUSH. … No statement (yet) from President JOE BIDEN.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is seen during a ceremonial swearing-in.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is seen during a ceremonial swearing-in for a new House member at the U.S. Capitol Nov. 28, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

REALITY SETS IN ON CAPITOL HILL — Amid a whirlwind of news on Capitol Hill yesterday, a throughline emerged: The complicated realities of governing are starting to dawn on lawmakers in surprising ways.

To start, there’s this bit of eye-popping news: The leader of the House Freedom Caucus told reporters that the hard-right group is ready to back off its demands for broad discretionary spending cuts and retreat to the number — $1.59 trillion — that then-Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY negotiated with the White House as part of the debt ceiling deal last spring.

If you’re scratching your head at that about-face, just imagine how McCarthy feels.

That debt deal was the beginning of the end for his brief speakership, kicking off nonstop warring with the hard-liners who pressed him to pursue further spending cuts. McCarthy did, it still wasn’t good enough, and it all ended last month in his removal from the speakership.

And now at least some conservatives are willing to live with McCarthy’s numbers, per HFC Chairman SCOTT PERRY. “It’s still too much for many of us,” he said. “But … most of the House voted for it; most of the Senate voted for it. That’s where we have to be.”

We asked around, assuming the Pennsylvania Republican misspoke. We’re told he didn’t.

While conservatives obviously prefer the $1.47 trillion topline they’ve been pushing for, there’s a growing fear that making unrealistic demands will lead to the Senate forcing House Republicans to swallow much higher numbers.

Instead, the thinking is, by sticking to the number written into the bipartisan deal, the House will have more credibility to keep the Senate from spending more than what was negotiated, which senators from both parties want to do. (Perry, notably, didn’t mention respecting the side deals that would allow for another $69 billion in nondefense spending on top of the debt deal’s baseline.)

If McCarthy really wants to chuckle about all of this, we’d recommend he go ahead and read Olivia Beavers’ big dive into the extremely familiar wave of hardliner discontent that his successor is now facing.

COACH CAVES: Meanwhile, across the Capitol, Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE is eyeing an off-ramp for his monthslong hold of more than 350 military promotions in protest against the Pentagon’s abortion policies.

After weeks getting blistered by his own GOP colleagues for the blockade, the Alabamian now says he’s on the verge of a pivot — just as he faces a potential intraparty revolt, with fellow Republicans preparing to join Democrats in an end-run procedural move that would break the blockade.

It’s not clear exactly what Tuberville’s potential cave would entail, but our colleague Burgess Everett reported yesterday that GOP senators are hoping Tuberville will relinquish his hold on all military promotions except those for four-star generals.

IMPEACH-Y KEEN: Back over in the House, Republicans are also coming to the realization that they’re going to have to vote to officially launch an impeachment inquiry of President JOE BIDEN. Majority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) told the GOP rank-and-file yesterday to expect a vote in the coming weeks.

McCarthy, you’ll recall, had borrowed a page from former Speaker NANCY PELOSI’s book and simply announced the inquiry — even as Republicans had blasted Democrats for doing the same during DONALD TRUMP’s impeachments.

With the White House likewise leaning on a precedent established under the Trump administration — that House subpoenas are invalid without a full impeachment inquiry vote — House Republicans now see they have to reconsider.

BORDER BLUES: Meanwhile, members of both parties are getting a reality check on plans to cut a bipartisan deal that might unlock the White House’s $106 billion supplemental funding request before the end of the year.

Those hopes rest on a small Senate gang reaching a border security agreement, and let’s just say the vibes are not good. Negotiators said yesterday little progress was being made just as Johnson took a trip across the Rotunda to tell Senate Republicans that they need to include as much as they can from the House GOP’s own border policy bill, H.R. 2, that is chock full of provisions Democrats hate.

Even if the Senate does strike some deal in return for Ukraine aid — and that’s a big if — Johnson warned he might not be able to get it through the House as part of a large package that combines aid to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as well as border policy. Breaking it up, on the other hand, carries risks of its own. More in Huddle on why the border talks are on life support

 

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FISA PROVISO: Last but not least, leaders are realizing they need more time to reauthorize a soon-to-expire portion of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that has critics on both the left and the right. Johnson told Senate Republicans he was inclined to extend the year-end deadline into February as part of the annual defense policy bill — then asked them not to leak it to reporters, which they, of course, promptly did.

Why the secrecy? The matter is particularly sensitive for conservatives who want to overhaul the program and aren’t interested in a punt. For instance: Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio), whose Judiciary panel has been working on a long-term overhaul, insisted that such a hasty patch is the “wrong way to do it.”

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

A PERFECT PHONE CALL — WaPo’s Jackie Alemany and Leigh Ann Caldwell report this morning that McCarthy told others he cursed out Trump during a phone call following his removal as House speaker: “During the call, Trump lambasted McCarthy for not expunging his two impeachments and endors[ing] him in the 2024 presidential campaign, according to people familiar with the conversation.

“‘F--- you,’ McCarthy claimed to have then told Trump, when he rehashed the call later to other people in two separate conversations, according to the people. A spokesperson for McCarthy said that he did not swear at the former president and that they have a good relationship. A spokesperson for Trump declined to comment.”

AD IT UP — NIKKI HALEY’s campaign is going up with its first television ad of the GOP presidential primary, a spot that focuses on what Haley calls “chaos in our streets” and calling for a new president with “moral clarity,” our colleague Meridith McGraw scoops this morning.

What Haley says: “It’s time for a new generation of conservative leadership. We have to leave behind the chaos and drama of the past and strengthen our country, our pride, and our purpose.” The ad notably does not mention Trump or Biden by name.

The details: “The 30 second spot is part of a massive $10 million ad buy in Iowa and New Hampshire. It will run on broadcast and cable TV and across digital platforms. Haley had previously relied on TV advertising by her aligned super PAC, SFA Fund Inc.” Watch the ad

John Kerry walks at the venue for the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit.

John Kerry, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, walks at the venue for the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Nov. 29, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. | Peter Dejong/AP

COP TO IT — As world leaders gather for the U.N. climate conference known as COP28 in Dubai today, one relationship in particular will be under heightened scrutiny: that of United Arab Emirates oil chief SULTAN AL-JABER and U.S. climate envoy JOHN KERRY.

“That partnership will be put to the test this week, as an expected 70,000 people from nearly 200 nations meet amid war, inflation woes and a global energy boom in a Persian Gulf city built by the UAE’s oil wealth,” our colleagues Zack Colman, Karl Mathiesen and Corbin Hiar report. “So will a central tenet of Kerry’s climate diplomacy — the notion that the countries, companies and executives who have profited the most from greenhouse gas pollution, those with the power to steer energy markets and the money to kickstart multibillion-dollar disaster funds, should play an essential role in solving the problem.”

At the conference today, action will be on the table from the jump. The attending nations are expected to finalize a hard-fought agreement for the creation of an international fund to help communities rebuild from climate-driven calamities, giving the U.N. climate talks a bit of a win on their opening day, our colleagues Zia Weise, Karl Mathiesen and Sara Schonhardt report from Dubai.

Related listen … MARK CARNEY, the U.N. special envoy for climate finance and action, has thrown down the gauntlet as COP28 opens in Dubai. “What we’ll be looking for at COP is who steps up amongst the oil and gas companies and commits to not doing something in the distant future, but doing something over the next few years,” Carney said on this week’s Power Play podcast. Listen and subscribe here 

WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. to take up judicial nominations.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. to take up bills on the border, Iran, and (potentially) the impeachment of DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS. First and last votes are expected at 3:45 p.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. Rep. GEORGE SANTOS is set to give what is likely his congressional swan song in a matter of hours, holding an 8 a.m. Capitol news conference on the eve of his likely expulsion. What will the embattled New York Republican discuss? Not his resignation, he insists. Beyond that, it’s unclear, but in recent tweets he has lashed out at colleagues and the institution he serves in, and reporters are being advised that it will deal with  “issues relating to the 118th Congress.”
  2. The Senate Judiciary Committee will take a second shot later this morning at authorizing subpoenas for LEONARD LEO and HARLAN CROW in its probe of Supreme Court ethics policies. The last attempt earlier this month was abandoned after Republicans filed dozens of amendments, but Chairman DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) said he’s ready this time. The key question might be whether things are wrapped up in time for panel members to make their usual Thursday afternoon flights.
  3. Remember the “Twitter Files”? Republicans on the House Judiciary weaponization subcommittee sure do: Their sixth hearing, kicking off at 10 a.m., will revisit the now-renamed platform’s dealings with the federal government and probe “recent attacks on independent journalism and free expression.” Independent journalists MATT TAIBBI and MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER will make repeat appearances before the panel after joining in March. RUPA SUBRAMANYA of the Free Press and former MIKE PENCE aide OLIVIA TROYE will join them.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1 p.m. In the afternoon, Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Angola President JOÃO MANUEL GONÇALVES LOURENÇO. In the evening, the president, first lady JILL BIDEN, VP KAMALA HARRIS and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will participate in the national Christmas tree lighting ceremony.

On the trail

Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS is set to square off against California Democratic Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM in a televised debate at 9 p.m. on Fox News.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

A man smiles as he is welcomed after being released from prison by Israel.

A man smiles as he is welcomed after being released from prison by Israel in the West Bank town of Ramallah, early Thursday, Nov. 30. | Nasser Nasser/AP

TRUCE CONTINUES — Early this morning, Israel and Hamas “agreed to extend a temporary truce by another day minutes before it was set to expire, said Qatar, which has been mediating between the two sides,” AP’s Wafaa Shurafa, Jack Jeffery and Melanie Lidman report from Jerusalem. Shortly afterward, two Palestinian men opened fire at a Jerusalem bus stop, killing at least three people, the NYT reports: “Israel’s Shin Bet security service said the gunmen were Palestinian brothers from East Jerusalem who were affiliated with Hamas … and had both previously been jailed for ‘terrorist activity.’”

Meanwhile, there is a growing fear that “a miscalculation amid tit-for-tat attacks, combined with each side’s belief that the other does not want a larger fight, could trigger exactly that: a regional conflict, just two years after the United States ended 20 years of war in the Middle East and South Asia,” NYT’s Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt and Julian Barnes report.

Back in the U.S., the families of Americans held captive by Hamas are urging Israel to “expand the scope of hostage negotiations beyond the release of women and children to also include men and military personnel,” WaPo’s John Hudson and Steve Hendrix report. The families are meeting with administration officials and lawmakers this week.

More top reads:

  • There is a growing group of aid workers who are “sounding the alarm about how their agencies are handling the politics and perils of the conflict, which has created one of the most complex humanitarian challenges in modern times,” WaPo’s Hannah Allam and Louisa Loveluck report from Cairo.
  • KINNAN ABDALHAMID, one of the three Palestinian American students who were shot in Vermont speaks with NYT’s Anna Betts and Jenna Russell: “Mr. Abdalhamid said that he expects the attack to have a lasting impact — not only for him and his friends, but for every Palestinian.”
  • Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, OPEC+ delegates are “considering new oil production cuts of as much as 1 million barrels a day,” WSJ’s Benoit Faucon and Summer Said report. “The move, which would likely send oil prices higher, could be announced [today] at a virtual meeting of the cartel.”

2024 WATCH

Nikki Haley addresses a gathering during a campaign stop at a brewery.

Nikki Haley addresses a gathering during a campaign stop at a brewery in Meredith, N.H., on Wednesday, Nov. 29. | Charles Krupa/AP

HALEY’S COMMIT — In addition to Haley’s new advertising blitz, yesterday she received a big boost from JPMorgan Chase CEO JAMIE DIMON, who told a room full of Wall Street bigwigs and watchers that they should help her campaign out.

“Even if you’re a very liberal Democrat, I urge you, help Nikki Haley, too,” Dimon said at the NYT’s Dealbook conference, per NYT’s Maggie Astor. “Get a choice on the Republican side that might be better than Trump.” However, Dimon left the door open on potentially coming back to Trump one way or another: “He might be the president. I have to deal with that, too.”

And despite Haley’s official campaign getting involved in the ad game, she and DeSantis are leaning heavily on outside aid to keep their campaigns competitive as they attempt to knock Trump off his perch atop the party.

“The extraordinary reliance on independent groups for the two Republicans who increasingly appear to be Trump’s closest challengers is testing the practical and legal limits of modern-day presidential campaigns,” AP’s Steve Peoples, Thomas Beaumont and Holly Ramer report.

More top reads:

  • Republicans thought they were done with the Obamacare debate. But then Trump read a WSJ op-ed, and now his interest in the issue has reopened a long-dormant campaign fault line for Republicans, Meridith McGraw and Adam Cancryn report. It’s another demonstration of “how Trump’s impulsive social media habit remains a major variable for the coming election and how much the Republican Party’s policy portfolio can be affected by the whims and media diet of its figurehead.”
  • BRIAN SWENSEN, who was previously the national political director for VIVEK RAMASWAMY’s campaign, is joining the Trump campaign, The Messenger’s Tom LoBianco reports
 

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CONGRESS

PERRY’S PLACE — The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals yesterday released a tranche of documents revealing new details about Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-Pa.) involvement in Trump’s bid to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Our colleague Kyle Cheney has the details: “Many of the documents connected to the case had been kept under seal. But on Wednesday, the D.C. Circuit unsealed them — including a lower court’s opinion that described and quoted from a large volume of the very text messages that Smith has been seeking.”

THE FLORIDA PROJECT — The Republicans who make up the Florida delegation in the House have everything that should make them a formidable bloc of lawmakers among a frequently fractured conference. But the reality is very different, Mia McCarthy writes. “Despite the numbers, they yield little sway. No members are in leadership. No Florida Republican holds a gavel. And while they often vote together on Florida issues, they’re otherwise a motley crew with conflicting alliances and approaches.”

TRUMP CARDS

MORE TROUBLE FOR TRUMP — JENNIFER LITTLE, one of Trump’s lawyers, “told special counsel JACK SMITH’s team that, within days of the Justice Department issuing a subpoena last year for all classified documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, she ‘very clearly’ warned Trump that if he failed to fully comply — but then swore he did — ‘it's going to be a crime,’” ABC’s Katherine Faulders, Mike Levine and Alexander Mallin report.

MEDIAWATCH

WELCOME TO THE SHOW — “Gayle King on Jumpsuits, Waking Up at 3:24 a.m. and Why She Doesn’t Drink,” by Marshall Heyman for WSJ: “As her CNN show debuts, the media queen spills her secrets for living (and dressing) well.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Rosalynn Carter was laid to rest.

Elon Musk had a, uh, bold message for advertisers boycotting X.

Pete Buttigieg got a rude welcome to Michigan State University.

A “Loose Pomeranian” was wandering the halls of Longworth yesterday. But the AWOL pup was returned to its rightful office.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at a reception hosted by VP Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus at their residence: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Reps. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.), Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Tony Cárdenas (D-Calif.), Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas), Gabe Vasquez (D-Texas), Norma Torres (D-Calif.) and Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.), Allison Zayas, Eddie Meyer, Angel Colon-Rivera and Brian Garcia.

— SPOTTED at the Capitol Hill Club last night for a party hosted by Alyssa DaCunha celebrating Denise Grace Gitsham’s new book, “Politics for People who Hate Politics: How to Engage Without Losing Your Friends or Selling Your Soul” ($15.29), where Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who wrote the foreword to the book, and Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) also gave remarks: Reps. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), David Rouzer (R-N.C.), Doug LaMalfa (R-Calif.) and Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), Maj. Gen. Roberta Shea, Sophia Cai, Julia Manchester, Rob Yarin, Samantha Dravis, David Spady and Anne Farrell Tata.

The Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy held a launch party for its upcoming 2024 political program yesterday evening at The Salon at Eaton D.C., where Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.), CFFE Executive Director Sondra Goldschein and Hopkins House President and CEO J. Glenn Hopkins delivered remarks. SPOTTED: Sara Schreiber, Greg Speed, Dawn Huckelbridge, Evan Kost, Julie Kashen, Amy Kennedy, Andy Reynolds, Phoebe Kilgour, Shilpa Padke, Vicki Shabo and Lisa Guide.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Jeff Morehouse is joining Rep. Richard Hudson’s (R-N.C.) office as leadership chief of staff. He previously was managing director of government affairs at ClearPath and is a Bill Flores and John Culberson alum.

TRANSITIONS — Bill Bertles is joining The Herald Group as a partner. He previously was senior VP and partner at DDC Public Affairs. … Ellen Sciales is now deputy comms director for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). She comes from the Sunrise Movement, and is a Warren, Bollier and Ossoff campaign alum. … Jimmy Goodrich is now senior adviser for technology analysis at the RAND Corporation. He most recently was VP of global policy at the Semiconductor Industry Association. …

… Jonathan Hoffman is now VP for comms and marketing at The Citadel. He is the former head of public affairs and chief Pentagon spokesman at DoD under Secretary Mark Esper and is also a DHS and Bush White House alum. … Chris Hayes has joined Capitol Asset Strategies as managing partner. He most recently was head of government relations at the Celo Foundation and is an alum of the Institutional Limited Partners Association and the Small Business Investor Alliance.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Brendan Buck, partner at Seven Letter, and Rebecca Buck, a senior director at Penta, on Tuesday welcomed Beau Henry Buck, who came in at 10 lbs and 20.75 inches. He joins big sister Sophie.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: South Dakota Gov. Kristi NoemLarry SummersLauren Pratapas   … former Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) … Sharon Soderstrom of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s office … Scott Erickson of the America First Policy Institute … Michael Beschloss … CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski Alex Clearfield of Bloomberg Industry Group … POLITICO’s Andy Glass, Michele Carroll and Ruth Reader Sergio Gor Steve HaroWilliam Daroff of the Conference of Presidents … Amijah Townsend-HolmesTravis Waldron of HuffPost … Jodi Rudoren of The Forward … Reuters’ Jonathan LandayAmy Pritchard …Accenture’s Ben Mahler … former Education Secretary Margaret Spellings Wesley Donehue José Bayona of NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ office … Economic Innovation Group’s Benjamin Glasner Staci Rhoads Toby Graff

BIRTHWEEK (was Tuesday): Daniel Neuffer

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