| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Canada's military is in the middle of a crisis, says Canada's military. → A key border-watcher in Congress, BRIAN HIGGINS, hangs up his skates. → STEVEN GUILBEAULT wants to keep his "dream job" as environment minister.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | A 'CRISIS' AT DND — The mess is always in the fine print. Every federal department publishes annual post-mortems on the fiscal year that was. The 2022-23 reports just dropped, and the Department of National Defence served up a doozy. Canada's military can't deploy multiple operations concurrently to the extent that it is supposed to be able to, amid a recruitment crisis, aging fleets and infrastructure, and planned spending cuts. The Liberal government insists the defense budget will continue to increase, and billions in long-term investments will maintain Canada's status as a capable ally with the resources to contribute effectively to missions around the word. DND's report is a snapshot of the recent state of things, and the strongest language is in the footnotes. — First, an appetizer: Gen. WAYNE EYRE, Canada's chief of the defense staff, recently set the stakes for Canada's armed forces in an interview with CBC's HANNAH THIBEDEAU. The top soldier's big takeaway: "The study of our military history could almost be considered a study in unpreparedness," he said. "I am very concerned as I see the deteriorating security situation around the world." That quote is useful context for anyone flipping through DND's lookback. — One at a time, please: A new defense policy is way overdue. For now, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) are still leaning on "Strong, Secure, Engaged" — a 2017 policy document badly out of date given a rapidly evolving geopolitical context. That document sets an expectation that Canada can deploy multiple operations at the same time. For example: "Two sustained deployments of ~500-1,500 personnel in two different theaters of operation, including one as a lead nation." The armed forces were "currently unable to conduct multiple operations concurrently per the requirements laid out in the 2017 Defence Policy," reads a footnote. "Readiness of CAF force elements has continued to decrease over the course of the last year aggravated by decreasing number of personnel and issues with equipment and vehicles." — Crumbling around us: Military fleets are hampered by a mix of badly needed repairs, obsolescence, personnel shortages and inadequate maintenance infrastructure. In 2022-23, only a fraction of "key fleets" were "serviceable to meet training and readiness requirements in support of concurrent operations": 56 percent for the army, 51.2 percent for the navy, and 43.88 percent for the air force — all well below targets. Less than two-thirds of military infrastructure was in "suitable condition." The military property portfolio includes a "significant number of assets that are approaching or have surpassed their life expectancy and have deteriorated." The maintenance budget can't keep up with competing needs. DND's fine-print takeaway: "The seriousness of deteriorating infrastructure will ultimately impact the CAF operations." Translation: something's gotta give. — ISO new recruits: The military shrunk during the pandemic, a result of Covid measures hampering recruitment centers and a competitive labor market in the private sector. The regular forces dropped by 4,100 personnel between March 2020 and July 2022. As of Sept. 30, the strength of the regular forces was 63,149. The goal the department is in search of is 71,500. The report blames an "applicant crisis." DND doesn't have enough people to maintain airplanes, and expects that problem to linger for years. The report notes "a continuing decrease of qualified aircraft technicians due to delays in the training system during COVID and scarcity of qualified workforce in the Canadian aerospace industry. That trend is expected to continue until 2027-28." — Dwindling reserves: The reserve forces have also taken a hit. The defense policy on the books calls for a reserve force of 30,000, with a goal just shy of that for 2022-23. Pre-pandemic recruitment efforts had boosted the force to 24,442. But the reserves shrunk to a strength of 22,217 in 2022-23. — Cuts, cuts, cuts: DND is grappling with spending restraint enforced by Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND and Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND — a former defense minister whose job now involves saying "no" to spending requests. The departmental spending projections at the bottom of the annual report reveal with precision the planned cuts to come. → 2020-21 actual spending: C$26.83 billion → 2021-22 actual spending: C$24.13 billion → 2022-23 actual spending: C$26.93 billion → 2023-24 planned spending: C$26.49 billion → 2024-25 planned spending: C$25.73 billion → 2025-26 planned spending: C$25.33 billion — Conversation starters: The low-profile DND report with high-stakes nuggets dropped a few days before military leaders and defense experts from the Western alliance gather on Canada's East Coast for the annual Halifax International Security Forum. Playbook's KYLE DUGGAN joins the POLITICO reporting team. You can reach him here. Watch for coverage in Monday's newsletter. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free!
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Explore how Google is helping to keep Canadians safe online at g.co/safety/cyber. | | | | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in San Francisco for the APEC Summit. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto. 8:15 a.m. Small Business Minister RECHIE VALDEZ and Women and Gender Equality and Youth Minister MARCI IEN will be at the Toronto Stock Exchange to announce funding for women entrepreneurs — and to join the market opening ceremony. A media availability will follow. 9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer will publish two new reports: “Costing Support for EV Battery Manufacturing” and “Pausing the fuel charge on heating oil and doubling the rural top-up rate for fuel charge rebates.” 10:30 a.m. Eight new ambassadors-designate will present their credentials to Governor General MARY SIMON. 11 a.m. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a press conference in Kitchener, Ontario. 11:30 a.m. Freeland will make her third announcement of the week alongside Toronto Mayor OLIVIA CHOW. This one is about public transit. Freeland will hold a media availability, also joined by Ontario Transportation Minister PRABMEET SARKARIA. 1 p.m. (10 a.m. PT) Emergency Preparedness Minister HARJIT SAJJAN will be at Simon Fraser University’s campus in Surrey, British Columbia, to announce the location for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada’s new HQ. 1:05 p.m. (10:05 a.m. PT) Trudeau will hold a media availability alongside Trade Minister MARY NG. 2 p.m. (11 a.m. PT) Trudeau will attend the APEC Leaders’ retreat. 4:30 p.m. Immigration Minister MARC MILLER will hold a media availability in Toronto with his provincial and territorial counterparts after a meeting of the Forum of Ministers Responsible for Immigration. 6 p.m. Poilievre hosts a rally in Kitchener at the Bingemans Conference Centre ballroom — maximum occupancy: 1,200.
| | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | | | UP: Grocery store profits. And this food for thought from COREY MINTZ at TVO.org: “Does anyone see food prices coming down? I don’t.” DOWN: Expectations for Tuesday’s Fall Economic Statement. In the words of economist TREVOR TOMBE over on The Hub: “It will not be pretty.”
| | For your radar | | | |  World leaders get settled for a group photo Thursday during the the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco. | AP | CLOSING TIME — The floodgates have opened on JUSTIN TRUDEAU's future. The prime minister has given zero hints that he's ready to leave office, but he can't escape a corrosive swirl of gossip that is here to stay. Every week brings fresh analysis of Trudeau's weakened position. Playbook's NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY spoke to people for whom this all sounds familiar. — Inevitable fatigue: “Every prime minister arrives at year seven, eight or nine basically in the same condition,” GEOFF NORQUAY, the consultant and former senior Conservative aide, told us. “The government is tired. It’s losing focus. It sometimes looks arrogant, or not in charge. And the policy failures are piling up.” When former PM BRIAN MULRONEY’s popularity sank in 1992 and 1993, his eighth and ninth years in power, DAVID MCLAUGHLIN had a front-row seat. McLaughlin, now the president and CEO of the Institute on Governance, traveled the world with the Conservative prime minister as a senior aide, and served as his final chief of staff. He observes several parallels between Trudeau’s current circumstances and Mulroney’s final months in power, including persistent personal unpopularity and a “spent agenda” after nearly a decade in power. — Quiet convos: Few outside the inner circle were aware what Mulroney was thinking on the timing of his resignation. Senior staff never convened formal meetings on the topic, McLaughlin insists. But as soon as Mulroney’s inevitable exit became the elephant in the room, governing became more complicated. “You know it’s on [the PM’s] mind. You know [he’s] not unaware. They have to present themselves as being not fussed by it,” says McLaughlin. “That would become an open invitation to the sharks in the political waters.” Read the rest of our reporting here.
| | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | | | | 
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault at COP27 in November 2022. | AP | NOT BUDGING — STEVEN GUILBEAULT says he’s not going anywhere. Canada’s environment minister ignited resignation speculation when he pledged that there would be no more exemptions to the Liberals’ carbon tax on his watch. He said Thursday that he takes marching orders from the prime minister, who has promised no more carve-outs. “That's the scenario I'm working with,” he told Playbook. “I love being environment minister. I mean, it's a dream job for me and I have no intention of leaving the job anytime soon.” He did acknowledge that voters may decide otherwise in the next election. “But for the time being, I want to stay right where I am.” — The more you know: 338Canada’s latest horse race numbers for Guilbeault’s Montreal riding suggests the Liberals have a narrow 1-point edge on the NDP. The Liberal incumbent’s odds of winning Laurier–Sainte-Marie have dropped to 53 percent. Guilbeault’s stance comes in the midst of debate on Bill C-234 and a proposal that seeks to exempt natural gas and propane used on farms. It’s edging closer to becoming law, which would technically count as another carve-out. — World is curious: The high-stakes political fight over the Liberals’ carbon tax is an active case study in observing how far voters will support progressive climate policies against anxiety-inducing affordability concerns. — More lumps for Liberals: Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE’s government introduced a new bill Thursday to withhold the federal carbon tax on natural gas for home heating. A short time later, a federal court quashed a Cabinet order that listed some plastic items as toxic. Both news alerts will refuel debate over the Liberals’ credibility on climate action.
| | | | Tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 15th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 17. The Forum's full topical agenda can be found here. | | | | | | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | |  Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) on the cross-border experience: "In many cases, it's hell." | Getty Images | EXIT INTERVIEW — Rep. BRIAN HIGGINS (D-N.Y.) is leaving Congress next February after 19 years serving as Buffalo's man in the U.S. House of Representatives. Higgins is the long-serving co-chair of the Canada-U.S. Interparliamentary Group, which includes lawmakers from the House and Senate on both sides of the border. He also co-chairs the bipartisan congressional Northern Border Caucus, which is always helmed by a Democrat and a Republican. Higgins' name is relatively familiar to the average Canadian because, unlike most Washington lawmakers, Higgins often talks about Canada. Every interview with the 64-year-old Buffalonian eventually circles around to his childhood hockey tournaments north (well, west) of the border, his summertime vacations and beach days on the Niagara Peninsula, and those annoyingly long lines at the Peace Bridge between Buffalo and Fort Erie. Higgins reflected on his biggest wins and frustrations since that first congressional election win in 2005. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. What are the biggest challenges on the border? Let's make that border what it was when I was a kid. The technology that's available today should make the cross-border experience a good one. In many cases, it's hell. The United States federal government has been channeling Customs and Border Protection agents down to Mexico. Consequently, there's four of 12 inspection booths that are open on the Peace Bridge, which discourages people. The cross-border experience between the United States and Canada has to be reliable. It has to be predictable. It has to be pleasant. I mean, everybody's surly. We're all economic actors. When we're confident, we move. When we're not, we don't. That's true individually, but it's also true collectively. How effective were the interparliamentary group and border caucus? How can they improve? I would say that, perhaps the northern border caucus should have administrative participation. Somebody from Customs and Border Protection, somebody from the Department of Homeland Security, so that there is a direct line to an administrative fix to a lot of the problems that are raised by the interparliamentary group. You've raised concerns with border issues, including a Canadian tax on underused housing you said unfairly penalized Americans who own cottages in Canada. How responsive was the Canadian government to concerns like that one? Everybody says the right thing, but it's not decisive. Typically, when you run into binational relationships, there's always another priority on the table, whether it's free trade, Buy American provisions, this and that. A lot of other issues kind of get delayed. The Canadian ambassador to the United States, KIRSTEN HILLMAN, she was fine. I spoke with her many, many times. DAVID COHEN, I spoke with him many times. Everybody is great. "We're gonna try. We're gonna do that." They're good faith actors. But what do they do? They're diplomats, they bring things to the attention of people who are empowered to do things. They have the ability to communicate, and it's up to somebody else to implement those changes.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — On The Big Story pod: How the Hamas-Israel conflict is changing Canada. — A prediction via LINDA MCQUAIG, writing in the Star: “It looks like Big Pharma will soon be doing a victory dance.” — Alberta MLA JODI CALAHOO STONEHOUSE tells APTN why now is a “powerful moment in time” with Indigenous politicians changing the history of Canada. — TODD HIRSCH and CARLO DADE share a warning in the Globe: “Canada must protect its economy and trade from a Donald Trump 2.0 presidency.”
| | | PROZONE | | If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM. In other news for Pro subscribers: — US announces details of climate, anti-corruption deals with Indo-Pacific allies. — Does the architect of Europe’s Green Deal truly understand what he’s unleashed? — OECD: Developed countries ‘likely’ met $100B U.S. climate funding goal last year. — China’s EV overcapacity will get worse, von der Leyen warns. — UK approves world's first CRISPR gene editing therapy.
| | | | A message from Google Canada:   | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to former MP INKY MARK, born on this day in 1947. Celebrating Saturday: MP BOBBY MORRISSEY, former MPP GARRY GUZZO, professor and career diplomat ANNE LEAHY, Crestview’s ALEX BYRNE-KRZYCKI and long-time CPC HQ director of membership TREVOR BAILEY. On Sunday: Former MPs JOE JORDAN and PETER LANG. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: Mental Health and Addictions Minister YA’ARA SAKS, in Washington to meet with Ambassador DEBORAH LIPSTADT, U.S. special envoy to monitor antisemitism, as well as the executive office of U.S. President JOE BIDEN: “We discussed the important role special envoys play in combating antisemitism in Canada, the U.S., and internationally.” COLUM GROVE-WHITE, director of orders-in-council at the Privy Council Office, serving up some public appreciation for the federal-provincial machinery of government cooperation required to install a new lieutenant-governor in Ontario. CN president/CEO TRACY ROBINSON is vice chair at the Business Council of Canada. A few names we noted on the 2023 edition of Toronto Life’s 50 most influential Torontonians: TIFF MACKLEM, OLIVIA CHOW, CHRYSTIA FREELAND, JENNI BYRNE, BONNIE LYSYK, DOUG FORD, ANITA ANAND, LANA PAYNE and KINGA SURMA. Movers and shakers: The mid-month meeting dump in the lobbyist registry offered fresh clues as to who has the ear of decision-makers in Ottawa. As the government's pre-budget engines rev up, stakeholders are looking for time with MIODRAG JOVANOVIC, Finance Canada's assistant deputy minister for tax policy. Jovanovic popped up in 15 recent meeting reports with Electricity Canada, Teck Resources, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Bruce Power, Cenovus, Shell Canada, the Mining Association of Canada, Canadian Fuels Association, Business Council of Canada, Imperial Oil, ConocoPhillips Canada, Pathways Alliance, and Emera Inc.
| | On the Hill | | — The House is adjourned until Monday, Nov. 20.
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Ambassador Kirsten Hillman will serve as guest trivia master on Dec. 4 when POLITICO Canada brings Playbook trivial to Washington. | Francis Chung/POLITICO |
JOIN US IN D.C. — Calling all Canada-U.S. geeks in Washington to Playbook Trivia on Monday, Dec. 4 at Astro Beer Hall, a space race-themed venue a couple of blocks from the White House.
Doors open at 7 p.m. First question at 7:30. We'll have a special guest and returning quizmaster: Ambassador KIRSTEN HILLMAN. Registration is open. Space is limited. RSVP via this Google Form.
| | TRIVIA | | Thursday’s answer: The late Ag Min EUGENE WHELAN was hit on the head with a milk jug during a protest in 1976. Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best. Props to SARA MAY, LISA HALEY, QASIR DAR, JOHN ECKER, MATT DELISLE, J.D.M. STEWART, KEVIN BOSCH, DOUG RICE, BOB PLAMONDON, DOUG SWEET, KATHERINE FEENAN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DAN FONDA, GUY SKIPWORTH, NANCI WAUGH, SCOTT LOHNES, JOHN DILLON, DAN MCCARTHY, ROBERT MAGUIRE, WAYNE EASTER, BLAIR ARMITAGE, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, TIM MCCALLUM, PATRICK DION, MARCEL MARCOTTE, ADAM ENKIN, HELEN DARBY, DUANE BRATT, and GORD MCINTOSH. Props + 1 to STEPHEN HAAS. Today’s question: What ship was the pride of the U.S. side — a big freighter with a well-seasoned crew? For complete marks: Connect your answer with this date in history. Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Emma Anderson and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
