The race for second place

Nov 16, 2023

Former Governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley speaks alongside Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during the third Republican presidential primary debate.

Former Governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley (L) speaks alongside Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during the third Republican presidential primary debate at the Knight Concert Hall at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, Fla., on Nov. 8, 2023. | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Good morning and welcome to Thursday.

The fight to be No. 2 is ramping up.

Gov. Ron DeSantis is increasing his attacks on former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley as the two battle to take on Donald Trump, who remains far ahead of the GOP presidential pack.

As his campaign has sputtered, the Florida governor has been looking for every opportunity to go after Haley. In recent interviews, he criticized Haley for dismissing the need for a transgender “bathroom bill” in South Carolina, as well as her comments saying the 2020 murder of George Floyd needed to be “personal and painful for everyone.”

Most recently, the DeSantis campaign highlighted her controversial proposal that would require people who post anonymously on social media platforms to verify their identities online. That criticism worked to DeSantis’ advantage as it drew a spate of outside GOP critique, causing the Haley campaign to backpedal and say the policy wouldn’t apply to U.S. citizens. The DeSantis campaign is also getting ready to release authoritarian-tinged merch to drag Haley over the First Amendment concerns her proposal raised.

With two months to go until the Iowa caucuses and a smaller field after former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina dropped out, Haley’s campaign is buckling down. It bought $10 million in TV, radio and online ads to run in Iowa and New Hampshire. As for DeSantis, he just put out a new TV ad highlighting his endorsement from GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds of Iowa.

Haley seems to have momentum, with a slew of new Iowa endorsements, polls showing she’s in second place in key early voting states New Hampshire and South Carolina, as well as major donors gravitating toward her candidacy. A New York Times/Siena College poll also shows she’s competitive in swing states against President Joe Biden. New Hampshire just set its primary for Jan. 23, 2024, and DeSantis has fallen to fourth in the state, with 7 percent support, per a new poll from Emerson College/WHDH.

DeSantis and Haley differ on how they talk about key issues that could sway general-election voters. DeSantis has a more hardline abortion record, having signed a six-week ban into law in Florida, while Haley has stressed the need for compromise and better access to contraception and adoption services. Haley also has been supportive of U.S. funding for Ukraine, while DeSantis has struggled to articulate his position.

Delivery-wise, Haley has revealed that she’s very nimble and agile on the debate stage, and will use the upcoming December debate in Alabama to capitalize on that.

Haley and DeSantis also will both be among the presidential candidates set to appear at the Christian FAMiLY Leader’s Thanksgiving Family Forum in Iowa tomorrow, though a new opportunity may emerge for Haley and DeSantis to face off directly — if the Republican National Committee doesn't squash it.

Fox News Channel Host Laura Ingraham has invited both Haley and DeSantis to debate each other on her show, and while Haley hasn’t RSVP’d, DeSantis was quick to reply, “Count me in!” DeSantis is already scheduled to hold a "debate" against California Gov. Gavin Newsom at the end of this month, in what he has acknowledged is a bid for attention to try to "cut through."

“He's trying to fight the trend — and the trend right now is Haley, particularly in Iowa," said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman, pointing to the polls. “If he doesn't finish second in Iowa, he's probably done.”

Yet every moment DeSantis and Haley spend fighting each other takes away from making the case against Trump. Both rivals have cast Trump as a loser and said it’s time for new leadership in the GOP. But their criticism doesn’t extend much further and it's increasingly likely that neither can catch up to Trump's formidable lead. The main factor offering a slice of uncertainty over Trump's inevitability is whether a conviction resulting from one of his many legal battles will spell the end of his political career — whether Republicans, if faced with a binary choice, would gravitate toward a less risky Republican candidate.

“I put the odds on Trump,” Stutzman said. When asked what was the point of running for second place, he replied: “To have a 20 to 30 percent chance of being the Republican nominee against Joe Biden … that's as close as a lot of these people are going to get to being president, and they might make it.”

— WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis will join Jack Heath on Good Morning New Hampshire’s Veterans Townhall at 8:20 a.m. EST.

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TODAY — House subcommittee meetings, including on health regulation. (Tune in.)

ALSO HAPPENING TODAY — State government economists are meeting one last time today to decide how much Florida’s proposed abortion amendment would cost and save the state if it were to become law. They’re considering factors such as food and medical assistance that would be needed to support families after they’ve had an unplanned pregnancy, as well as travel spending when patients come to Florida from states with more restrictive abortion laws.

The amendment would allow abortion for any reason up to fetal viability — generally understood to be roughly 24 weeks into a pregnancy — and then after when the procedure is performed for broadly defined health reasons. As the ballot amendment moves forward, the state Supreme Court is still weighing whether to uphold a law making abortion illegal after 15 weeks.

Lab-grown meat from the U.S. is presented in the Disgusting Food Museum.

Lab-grown meat from the US is presented in the Disgusting Food Museum on December 6, 2018, in Los Angeles, California. | Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

SIMPSON AGREES — The steaks are high: Florida Republican wants to ban lab-grown meat, reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie. State Rep. Tyler Sirois has proposed legislation that would make it a criminal offense to sell ”cultivated” meat in Florida, claiming that it’s an “affront to nature and creation” and the latest front in the “ESG agenda” — referring to environmental, social and corporate governance, which has been target of DeSantis and Republican state leaders.

NEW BILL — Florida Republicans target scholarships, grants for students who “promote” Hamas and other designated terrorist organizations, reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. The legislation, introduced Wednesday, is the latest attempt by Florida policymakers to punish college students who are expressing support for Palestinians as the Israel-Hamas war rages on with tensions inflamed on campuses across the country.

SCHOOL DEREGULATION — “Key pieces of the Republican education agenda in Florida would be wiped out under Senate bills that would end the rule that students pass two exams to earn high school diplomas, again allow teachers to sign multi-year contracts and, to the consternation of ‘recess moms,’ cut the mandate that elementary schools offer 20 minutes of daily recess,” reports the Orlando Sentinel’s Leslie Postal.

$3.1 BILLION — “Florida senators want statewide standard for opioid settlement spending,” by Florida Phoenix’s Jackie Llanos. “Senators on the Appropriations Committee for Health and Human Services expressed worry Wednesday that an uncoordinated approach would lead to patchwork solutions throughout the state.

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

MIAMI CITY HALL — “Suspended Miami commissioner Alex Díaz de la Portilla loses family home to foreclosure sale days before election,” reports the Miami Herald’s Joey Flechas. “The sale comes as Díaz de la Portilla faces criminal charges that he sold his City Commission vote in exchange for $245,000 in campaign contributions and gifts, which prompted DeSantis to suspend Díaz de la Portilla the day after he was arrested in September. As he seeks reelection to the commission’s District 1 seat, legal issues have mounted for the longtime politician, who denies wrongdoing and has pleaded not guilty to charges that include bribery and official misconduct.”

PROSECUTOR CHALLENGE — “Suspended State Attorney Monique Worrell said Wednesday her successor is pursuing many of the ‘exact same’ policies as she did, in a rebuttal press conference to his 100-day update,” reports the Orlando Sentinel’s Cristóbal Reyes. “At a law office in downtown Orlando, Worrell pointed to the reintroduction of the Orange-Osceola State Attorney’s Office’s adult civil citation program, which was initially discontinued by appointed state attorney Andrew Bain before he announced Monday it will resume this month. The program offers alternatives to arrest for non-violent offenders, such as counseling or community service.”

HEALTH CARE GAP — “Positive Healthcare is leaving Florida, causing an insurance scramble for HIV/AIDs patients,” by the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Cindy Krischer Goodman. “PHP is a Medicare Advantage health plan that also includes prescription drug coverage for people who have HIV or AIDS. The plan is backed by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation and members get all of the regular Medicare benefits and access to specialists at no additional cost. Their prescription drugs, especially HIV medications, are also covered at a low cost. The insurer will continue to operate in California, but a Positive Healthcare executive says Florida has become too costly to continue to offer its plan after changes to Medicare reimbursement.”

PINK SLIPS — A group that calls itself “Disney Defenders” said during a Wednesday public meeting with the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District that it’s collecting signatures for two petitions — one to restore the previous leadership, known as the Reedy Creek Improvement District, and the other to prohibit political retaliation.

Chris Wills, who is leading the effort, handed board members “pink slips” during yesterday’s public meeting and said he was putting them “all on notice that once these petitions get the signatures needed we will restore Reedy Creek and your services will no longer be needed.”

He accused the DeSantis-picked board members of causing “chaos and corruption” in the district. Wills wore a T-shirt that pictured a frowning Mickey Mouse over the website “DisneyDefenders.com.”

CAMPAIGN MODE

TODAY — U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is holding a meet and greet for Hispanic voters with Tom Keen, who is running for Congress in Florida’s 35th House District.

DESANTIS DONOR — “DeSantis talks tough on China, takes cash from China-backed company,” reports the Miami Herald. “This August he took a check for more than $11,000 from the CEO of a Tampa refrigerant company with direct backing from China. It was just the latest in years of financial support that the company, iGas USA, has given DeSantis. Last year DeSantis even held a rally at the Chinese-backed refrigerant company’s Tampa complex.”

‘BACKSTABBED’ — “Once Florida's favorite son, Floridians turn on DeSantis in his bid for president,” reports NPR’s Ashley Lopez. "I'm a little upset that he's out campaigning as president because I voted for him to do a job here as governor," one voter said. "And while he's out campaigning, he's not doing his governorship job. And I'm not the only Floridian that feels that way. And we need him back here to govern. That's what we elected him for."

U.S. SENATE RACE — “Stanley Campbell says Florida Politics report on abuse allegations trivializes the story of his ‘thriving Black family,’” by Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles. “In an email blast to supporters, the Palm City Democrat dismissed the reporting, based on allegations made by ex-wife Ethel Rowlett when she filed for divorce in 1986, as a distortion of the truth. ‘I refuse to remain silent while attempts are made to rewrite the story of two divorced parents who came together to raise two incredible African American men,’ Campbell wrote. Maryland court records show a warrant was served on Campbell in December 1985 for two counts of misdemeanor battery.”

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

BIRTHDAYS: Darrick McGhee, chief operating officer of Johnson & Blanton

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