| | | | |  | | By Victoria Guida | Presented by the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition | | 
A Federal Reserve Office Building on March 21, 2023 in Washington, DC. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | FED UP — The U.S. economy reached an encouraging milestone this week: the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation showed prices rose 3 percent over the past 12 months, inching ever-closer to their 2 percent target. That means the Fed is probably done raising interest rates, which is good news for anyone with a credit card or looking to buy a car or house. But Chair Jerome Powell isn’t saying it just yet. “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” he said today in a speech at Spelman College. “We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.” To explain what he means here, let’s back up. In their fight against inflation, central bank officials have strived to raise borrowing costs into “restrictive” levels, which is wonkspeak for a level that is actually cutting into growth and spending (and therefore, ideally, inflation). They now think rates are at restrictive levels, but they’re not ready to say, for certain, that they are “sufficiently restrictive,” as Powell says. And they’re not closing the door on tightening the screws further, the Fed chief said. But talking about the potential for more rate hikes is also a way to avoid talking about rate cuts. That might sound odd, but it’s what stock and bond investors really want to know. If the Fed has been raising rates to beat inflation, and they look close to beating inflation, when will they stop actively slowing growth and lower rates to a less punishing level? Powell himself has acknowledged rate cuts would come before the Fed reaches their 2 percent target to avoid unnecessarily tanking the economy. But Fed officials want to feel pretty confident that inflation is on its way back to 2 before they ease off, which is why Powell said it’s “premature” to “speculate” on when rates might come down. Markets are doing lots of speculating though, with investors pricing in a high likelihood that the Fed’s main policy rate will be at least a percentage point lower by the end of next year. In the meantime, watch out for whether the data continues to break the Fed’s way; they’ll get the latest consumer price index report a day before their next rate decision in mid-December. For President Joe Biden, the prospect of no more rate hikes is sure to be a relief heading into an election year. But until it’s clearer when and under what circumstances the Fed will cut rates, the verdict is out on whether he’ll get to avoid a recession. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at vguida@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @vtg2.
| | | | A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition: Some politicians are trying to defund data security by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill, serving your private financial data to hackers on a silver platter. But you can stop them. Learn more and tell Congress to stop the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. | | | | | — House expels Santos: George Santos is out. The House voted to expel the indicted New York Republican 311-114, exceeding the two-thirds threshold required for booting a member. Nearly all Democrats supported the measure, with two voting against it and two voting present, while 105 Republicans backed it. It’s the first time the House has expelled a member without a conviction since the Civil War. The New York Republican told reporters as the vote concluded: “It’s over. ... They just set a dangerous new precedent for themselves.” He declined further comment. — Sandra Day O’Connor, first woman Supreme Court justice, dies at 93: Sandra Day O’Connor, the first woman Supreme Court justice, died this morning in Phoenix, Arizona. She was 93. It was announced in October 2018 that she had been diagnosed with dementia. In a letter, she wrote: “As this condition has progressed, I am no longer able to participate in public life.” Throughout her 24-year term on the bench, O’Connor voted on some of the most contentious issues the court has faced, including affirmative action and abortion. One of her most influential roles was in the 5-4 vote in Bush v. Gore, as she joined justices Anthony Kennedy, William Rehnquist, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas in a decision that led to George W. Bush’s 2000 election win. — Trump may be sued over Jan. 6 incitement claims, appeals court panel rules: Donald Trump can be sued over claims that he incited violence on Jan. 6, 2021, an appeals court ruled today, rejecting the former president’s argument that he is entirely immune from being held liable for incendiary remarks that preceded the attack on the Capitol. The three-judge panel concluded that Trump’s actions as a candidate for president would not automatically be protected by “presidential immunity,” turning aside Trump’s sweeping argument that nearly all speech and conduct by an incumbent president should be shielded from lawsuits, including several brought by members of Congress and injured police officers.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | | | | | BIDEN’S ATM — President Joe Biden will head to Los Angeles next week for a big-dollar event that will be his first since strikes by writers and actors effectively ground his fundraising to a halt in the heart of the entertainment industry, which has long served as the ATM for the Democratic Party. The event next Friday at the home of Michael Smith, a celebrity interior designer, and his partner James Costos, a former HBO executive who was President Barack Obama’s ambassador to Spain, is expected to raise millions and draw a star-studded crowd. Rocker Lenny Kravitz is expected to perform, according to the Associated Press. Director Steven Spielberg and his wife, Kate Capshaw, who starred in “Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom,” are among the hosts of the event, as are recording industry mogul David Geffen, “Scandal” showrunner Shonda Rhimes and “This is Spinal Tap” director Rob Reiner. DESANTIS CALLS ON FL GOP CHAIR TO RESIGN — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said state Republican Party Chairman Christian Ziegler should resign while police investigate a rape allegation against him, reports the Associated Press. Ziegler hasn’t been charged, but the investigation comes as the 2024 election heats up. DeSantis is running for president, and the state GOP is working to reelect U.S. Sen. Rick Scott. Florida was also key to Republicans winning a slim majority in the U.S. House in 2022, and the party will be defending the newly won seats. DESANTIS SUPERPAC DRAMA — The main super PAC supporting Ron DeSantis’s presidential campaign has been rocked by another significant departure, as Adam Laxalt, a friend and former roommate of the Florida governor, has stepped down as chairman of the group, reports the New York Times. Laxalt, who unsuccessfully ran to become a Republican senator in Nevada in 2022, lived with DeSantis when he was training as a naval officer. He joined Never Back Down in April, soon after his own campaign ended and before DeSantis officially joined the presidential race, in a move that was widely seen as DeSantis and his wife seeking to have someone they trusted monitoring the activities of the well-funded group. He also suffered the unexpected death of his mother over the summer, a friend said.
| | | | A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition:   | | | | | | | 
People displaced by conflict wait for the arrival of United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix in Bunia, eastern Congo on Feb. 22, 2022. | Moses Sawasawa/AP | PEACE PLOTTING — A top U.S. intelligence official presented a detailed proposal to the leaders of Congo and Rwanda last week for a pact to reduce fighting in eastern Congo — and promised to help enforce the deal, reports POLITICO. The leaders largely signed off on the U.S. plan, which included commitments for Rwanda to pull back its forces and offensive military equipment by Jan. 1 and for Congo to ground its drones, according to a readout of the meetings. Fighting in eastern Congo has dragged on for decades; since the Rwandan genocide, various rebel groups and militaries have vied for control over the border region. The readout shows that the U.S. is playing a much more active role than previously disclosed in trying to calm tensions in the increasingly volatile region, where conflict between Congolese forces and rebels backed by neighboring Rwanda is threatening to escalate into all-out war between the countries. The Biden administration previously said that Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines flew to the region last week to “secure commitments” from Congolese and Rwandan leaders to deescalate fighting and that they “plan to take specific steps to reduce current tensions.” But the administration did not disclose the extent to which the U.S. was designing and overseeing the plan. Washington drew up the deal, according to the readout. The administration is also setting up an intelligence fusion cell — a formalized information-sharing mechanism — to transmit data to Congo and Rwanda about ground movements and to ensure both countries adhere to the deal. It’s a surprising level of engagement for a U.S. administration that has played a more passive role in the talks between warring parties involved in other conflicts on the continent. And it highlights the seriousness with which Washington views the potential for war and for the long-volatile region to become the latest global flashpoint.
| | | | GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | | | | | SEO HEIST — Last week, a marketing professional named Jake Ward tweeted out that he had done what few had done before: “pulled off an SEO heist.” Ward was able to steal millions of clicks in online traffic through training AI to copy a competitor’s sitemap information and use that to create article headlines. Ward’s tweet demonstrated how AI can influence what information we get from the search engine monopolies of the internet. And after recent revelations that AI is being used to create fake journalists to write articles for Sports Illustrated and Ward’s “SEO heist,” we’re seeing how AI can take advantage of those monopolies. In a newsletter for Dirt Media, Michelle Santiago Cortés dives into the “crimes against search” and how AI is curating our daily media intake.
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On this date in 1989: Demonstrators lie in the middle of Pennsylvania Avenue near the White House to protest the lack of government support in AIDS research. Police later cleared the demonstrators. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
| | | | A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition: Your security is on hackers' wish list this year and some lawmakers are trying to put defunding data security under the tree by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill.
If the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill becomes law, it could put millions of credit card transactions at much greater risk of hacking, fraud and identity theft. Washington should protect our private financial data, not make it easier for cyber criminals to hack into your wallet this holiday season.
Learn more and tell Congress to say no to defunding data security by rejecting the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
