| | | | |  | | By Erin Banco, Nahal Toosi, Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  While American officials say they are not making judgments in real-time about whether Israel is abiding by the laws of war, the U.S. has already gathered detailed intelligence that might allow it to make such assessments. | Ohad Zwigenberg/AP | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Oriana Pawlyk and Lara Seligman While American officials say they are not making judgments in real-time about whether Israel is abiding by the laws of war, the U.S. has already gathered detailed intelligence that might allow it to make such assessments. The U.S. has collected intelligence and formulated detailed assessments related to both Israel and Hamas military movements and tactics in Gaza since the war began in October, according to two people familiar with the intelligence. That has included data on targeting by both sides, the weapons they appear to be using and the potential number of people killed in their ranks. That information has been shared with members of Congress in several briefings, including with the members of the intelligence committees, the people said. Both individuals were granted anonymity to detail a sensitive issue. State Department officials are also collecting reports of potential Israeli violations through a system unveiled in August called the Civilian Harm Incident Response Guidance, or CHIRG, according to JOSH PAUL, who quit the department over concerns about its approach to the war. Paul said some officials within the department’s Bureau of Political-Military Affairs have asked State’s legal wing to “provide information about their potential international law exposure as a result of approving these sales.” All this indicates two things: When President JOE BIDEN reiterated Tuesday that Israel was using “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza — a breach of international humanitarian law — he was likely speaking about information he had. And his administration apparently has some of the data it would need to determine whether or not Israel is violating global rules of war. Spokespeople for the State Department declined to comment Thursday on such specifics or the mechanics of any internal deliberations, but they have said in public briefings that the department is monitoring the situation and collecting information. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment. In explaining Biden’s comments, a parade of administration officials said the president just expressed his concerns about the toll of civilian casualties. They have also said that the administration is not conducting real-time legal assessments of Israel’s operations in Gaza because it does not have the intelligence needed to do so. Former officials familiar with the process say that’s inaccurate. “It's really disingenuous for people in the government to claim that it's too hard or we can't do this in real time. It's simply a choice. They choose not to do this,” said BRIAN FINUCANE, previously a State Department lawyer who now advises the International Crisis Group. Indeed, U.S. policy requires the administration to make these kinds of assessments and refrain from transferring weapons should it find that violations of international law are “more likely than not” to occur. Amid increasing public outcry over Israel’s bombardments in Gaza, lawmakers have specifically asked the administration for information about the degree to which Israel is using U.S. intelligence or weapons to target Hamas and whether those attacks have killed civilians. They have received several detailed briefings about Israel’s targeting in Gaza, including its use of non-precision guided munitions by the Israel Defense Force, according to one of the people familiar with the intelligence. CNN reported Wednesday night the U.S. has intelligence indicating nearly half of the 29,000 munitions Israel has dropped on Gaza are so-called “dumb bombs” –– that is, they aren’t precise when launched at a target, typically leading to more civilian casualties. It’s unclear why the U.S. is not actively conducting legal assessments on Israel’s actions in Gaza. One reason may be that international humanitarian law is notoriously difficult to apply, particularly during a war. The U.S. would likely need to understand Israel’s intent with each targeting decision. It would also need to determine if Israel was considering to the fullest extent possible whether the potential civilian loss of life in each attack outweighed the military advantage. “That is the test,” said TODD BUCHWALD, the former head of the State Department’s office of Global Criminal Justice. “When you're looking at these things — to think about how you would calculate that — it does become very hard and very subjective.” And any pronouncement that Israel violated international humanitarian law would likely have implications for Washington as well. It could mean that the U.S. would be legally complicit given the billions of dollars it spends a year to send weapons to Israel.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | SULLIVAN: END FULL-SCALE GROUND OPERATION: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN urged Israeli leaders today to end the ground invasion in Gaza and start a more targeted phase of its mission to take out Hamas, U.S. officials told The New York Times’ ADAM ENTOUS. While Sullivan didn’t specify a timetable during talks with top Israeli officials, four U.S. officials told the Times that Biden wants Israel to start using more precise tactics within three weeks, or shortly after that. The U.S. wants the new phase to involve smaller groups of elite Israeli soldiers moving in and out of population centers in Gaza, “carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said,” per the Times. HARRIS’ GAZA PLEA: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS has been telling colleagues in the administration that she wants the White House to show more concern publicly for the humanitarian damage in Gaza, three people familiar with Harris’ comments told our own EUGENE DANIELS and HOLLY OTTERBEIN. The president is among the officials Harris has urged to show more sensitivity to Palestinian civilians, these people said. KIRSTEN ALLEN, Harris’ press secretary, said “there is no daylight between the president and the vice president, nor has there been.” One person close to the vice president’s office said Harris believes the U.S. should be “tougher” on Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. She has called for being “more forceful at seeking a long-term peace and two-state solution,” this person said. PUTIN WANTS PRISONER DEAL: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said he’s willing to “find a solution” for the release of Americans EVAN GERSHKOVICH and PAUL WHELAN, a sign that a deal might soon be made. Putin addressed why Russia had rejected a previous offer for their return during his annual end-of-year news conference. “It is not that we have refused to return them,” he said. “We want to reach an agreement, and these agreements must be mutually acceptable and must suit both sides. We have contacts with our American partners in this regard, and there is an ongoing dialogue.” Putin used the event to reiterate that he still seeks to conquer all of Ukraine and assess that Western support for the country won’t last forever. "Ukraine produces almost nothing today, everything is coming from the West, but the free stuff is going to run out some day, and it seems it already is," he said. There was a curious moment: Putin revealed that French President EMMANUEL MACRON doesn’t call him anymore. Putin said they had enjoyed a “quite good working relationship and we were ready to cooperate with France further” on bilateral and global issues, our own EVA HARTOG reports. But “at some point, the French president stopped the relationship with us,” he added. “We didn’t do it, I didn’t. He did. If there’s interest, we’re ready. If not, we’ll cope.” Read: EU leaders approve Ukraine accession talks, bypassing Orbán by our own NICOLAS CAMUT DON’T FORGET TAIWAN: The U.S. and Europe must not “look the other way” in the face of a potential Chinese invasion of the self-governing island, said Taiwan’s new top diplomat in the United States. “The best defense, best help that you can do for Taiwan … is by actively, openly voicing your concerns that you will not accept Chinese aggression towards Taiwan,” ALEXANDER TAH-RAY YUI told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast in an interview. Taiwan is getting ready to fight off an invasion, the diplomat said, warning that China’s preparing to attack. It would be similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Yui added, as Taiwan is also “facing an attack from a much larger country” and sought to beef up its defenses.
| | | | Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here. | | | | | IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | VIVEK’S UKRAINE THEORY: GOP presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY said that residents in some parts of Ukraine weren’t as opposed to Russia’s invasion, causing those areas to be more easily taken over. “Part of the reason Putin has been able to seize eastern Ukraine is they have not had the same level of resistance as the rest of Ukraine,” Ramaswamy said during a CNN town hall Wednesday night. Those who live in some parts of eastern Ukraine “don’t even view themselves really as part of Ukraine,” he added. Ramaswamy used that explanation to justify his proposal — if elected president — to end the war in Ukraine, which would include giving Russia “some territorial concessions of the Russian-speaking regions” in the eastern part of Ukraine.
| | | ‘FASTER THAN EXPECTED’: Ukraine assesses that it’s recovering quicker than it expected from the massive cyberattack that brought down its largest telecom provider, Matt and MAGGIE MILLER report (for Pros!). But it still could take weeks before service is fully back. “Restoration of Kyivstar's mobile network has begun, the process is faster than expected,” according to the document, sent to Ukrainian government officials by Kyiv’s Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, obtained by Matt. The document didn’t provide a timeline, though Kyivstar's CEO said it may take several weeks before all of the services targeted are up and running again, per Reuters’ YULIIA DYSA. THE POPE’S AI GOSPEL: Congress hasn’t done enough work on artificial intelligence regulation in the U.S. to join POPE FRANCIS’ proposal for a global treaty to regulate the technology, Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) told Matt. Today, Francis called for a binding treaty that would ensure artificial intelligence is developed and used ethically. He said in a statement that the risks of technology lacking human values of compassion, mercy, morality and forgiveness are too great — and that failing to regulate it could “pose a risk to our survival.” Warner said the United States, where lawmakers have yet to enact AI regulation, is not ripe for such a treaty. “There is more work to do at the national level before we can establish global obligations and restrictions on the use of AI,” Warner, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in an email. BAD SIGNALS: Aviation regulators and airlines will meet next month to discuss how to respond to an uptick of GPS interference on commercial aircraft, most commonly affected when flying near conflict zones, our own ORIANA PAWLYK writes in. News about the meeting first broke last week. Today, International Air Transport Association spokesperson PERRY FLINT told Oriana that the meeting, which doesn’t have a set date just yet, will be held virtually and include representatives from airlines, aircraft and avionics manufacturers and technical organizations, as well as the FAA and its European counterpart. As loyal NatSec Daily readers know, researchers tracking GPS spoofing — a technique to disguise signals or render them inaccurate — saw an increase of the anomaly as Israel worked to degrade signals in the region following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
| | | |   | | | | | MIDDLE EAST VISITS: Army Chief of Staff Gen. RANDY GEORGE will travel this week and next throughout the Middle East to meet with troops, allies and partners, Army spokesperson Col. DAVID BUTLER told NatSec Daily. The visits come as U.S. forces in the Middle East increasingly come under attack from Iran-backed proxies, raising fears of a wider war breaking out in the region. Throughout seven days, he’ll step foot in seven countries, including Jordan, Qatar, Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Djibouti and the U.K. “Our partners and allies in the Middle East should continue to be reminded that the U.S. is committed to them and the region,” Butler said in a statement. “Our adversaries and enemies need to be reminded of the same.” Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN will also travel to the Middle East next week to meet with senior leaders in Bahrain, Qatar and Israel, our own LARA SELIGMAN reported Wednesday. He’ll meet with Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT, Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told Lara today. Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN will also be in the region next week, with plans to stop in Israel the same day as the secretary, a DOD official told Lara. Before heading to Israel today, natsec adviser Sullivan held a Wednesday meeting with Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, in which they discussed how to resolve the Israel-Hamas conflict. PUMP THE BRAKES: The Pentagon should slow down its purchases of dozens of armed overwatch aircraft until it conducts an analysis of how many planes it needs, a Government Accountability Office report released today recommends. “This analysis wasn't completed before DOD decided to buy the planes,” the report reads. “DOD's special operations mission requirements have also changed in recent years, and it hasn't evaluated if it still needs all 75 planes.”
| | SANDERS’ ISRAEL ASK: Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) has introduced a resolution demanding information on Israel's human rights practices amid the sustained bombing campaign in Gaza, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. The resolution, made pursuant to the Foreign Assistance Act, is privileged, meaning Sanders can force a floor vote on the matter and, if passed, it would force the State Department to respond within 30 days — or see security aid cut off. The effort would have to clear both chambers of Congress and be signed into law by Biden. DEFENSE SPENDING BILL THRU: The Republican-controlled House passed a final $886 billion defense policy bill this morning, even though many conservative provisions had been stripped through negotiations with the Senate, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. The National Defense Authorization Act now heads to Biden, who is expected to sign it, ensuring that defense policy legislation becomes law for the 63rd straight year. The Senate overwhelmingly passed compromise defense policy legislation Wednesday night after lawmakers struck a deal to drop hard-right provisions on abortion, transgender troops and other hot-button issues, as Connor also reported. HAMAS SEXUAL VIOLENCE RESOLUTION: About a fifth of the Senate introduced a bipartisan resolution today condemning Hamas for the use of sexual violence against women and children during its Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The resolution, among other things, “demands accountability for the perpetrators of rape as a weapon of war and justice for the victims.” “The deliberate use of rape and sexual violence as a weapon of war by Hamas terrorists against the people of Israel is atrocious,” said Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), who led on the measure alongside Sen. KATIE BRITT (R-Ala.). “These reprehensible, barbaric acts of sexual violence have no place in our world and must be unequivocally and universally condemned,” Britt added. The strong number of cosponsors means chances are good the resolution will pass in the Senate in the near future.
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | | WEST BANK SETTLER BAN: The U.K. is banning violent Israeli settlers from entering the country, Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON announced today, our own MATT HONEYCOMBE-FOSTER reports. The move was made to “make sure our country cannot be a home for people who commit these intimidating acts,” Cameron posted on X this morning. “Extremist settlers, by targeting and killing Palestinian civilians, are undermining security and stability for both Israelis and Palestinians.” He urged Israel to take stronger actions to stop settler violence in the region and hold perpetrators accountable. The ban aims to “make sure our country cannot be a home for people who commit these intimidating acts,” the foreign secretary added. Yesterday, Israel’s ambassador to the U.K., TZIPI HOTOVELY, said that her country should abandon the idea of a two-state solution. “The Oslo paradigm failed on the seventh of October,” she said during a Sky News interview, using shorthand for the Norwegian city where peace process negotiations have taken place, “and we need to build a new one.” Asked if Palestinians should have a state, she answered: “Absolutely no.”
| | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: The Pentagon’s recently departed UFO chief, SEAN KIRKPATRICK, is now working for Oak Ridge National Laboratory, birthplace of the Manhattan Project that helped produce America’s first nuclear weapons in the 1940s, he told Lara. Kirkpatrick is supporting ORNL as its chief technology for national security programs. — THOMAS BOLLYKY was named the Council on Foreign Relations’ inaugural Bloomberg chair in global health, the think tank announced Thursday. Bollyky had been the program’s global health director since 2018 and Bloomberg Philanthropies gave a $5 million gift to establish the chair.
| | — ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, POLITICO: Ukraine must join the European Union — ANTONIO DE LOERA-BRUST, The Washington Post: Sacrificing migrant rights for Ukraine aid would be terrible policy — ALEX DE WAAL, Foreign Policy: Don’t Allow a Disastrous Collapse in Sudan
| | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Gaza: the human toll Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who violates our rights every day. We also thank our producer, Emily Lussier, the most law-abiding citizen in the game.
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