| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Alexander Ward | |  Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who led the military alliance from 2009 to 2014, blamed the past three administrations for laying the foundation that caused the conflicts to arise. | Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Nahal Toosi and Maggie Miller A war between Russia and Ukraine with no end in sight. Multiple ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Increasing worries of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In the eyes of ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, the former NATO secretary-general, the proliferation of global flashpoints stems from the United States’ failure to act. “Recent global events in the Taiwan Strait, in the Middle East, in Ukraine,” he said, “are all results of American hesitance to actually lead.” Speaking with NatSec Daily at a hotel near Dupont Circle on Tuesday, Rasmussen, who led the military alliance from 2009 to 2014, blamed the past three administrations for laying the foundation that caused the conflicts to arise. In the Middle East, for example, the Obama administration began to “retreat,” and that was continued under the Trump and Biden administrations, he said. When Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, Europe and the United States acted too weakly, emboldening Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN to begin a full-scale war against Kyiv, Rasmussen said. He added that the U.S. needs to be clearer with China in regards to how it would defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion. “Time and again we see that …. if the U.S. is not exercising global leadership, then the bad guys would take advantage of the situation,” Rasmussen said. “When America leads, then the bad guys retreat.” But the Biden administration could make the case that it has been leading on these issues — or at least has been trying to. The National Security Council pointed us to national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, in which he said the U.S. has been “rallying a global response to push back” against aggression around the globe. He detailed the administration’s efforts to support Ukraine with military assistance, emphasized the need to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait, and noted the White House’s diplomatic effort in the Middle East to de-escalate tensions. “We are not turning inward,” Sullivan said Rasmussen’s musing about Washington’s global leadership was in response to a question about former President DONALD TRUMP saying that if Europe is attacked, he wouldn’t come to its defense. Trump also reportedly said that NATO is “dead.” European leaders have been unsettled by the growing possibility that Trump, the GOP presidential frontrunner, could return to office and damage ties with allies. Speaking with NatSec Daily in Davos today, Lithuanian Foreign Minister GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS underscored the importance of the U.S. standing by Europe. “The U.S. is a guarantor of European security. That’s a fact,” he said. “I'm not even starting to think about the scenarios that would change the posture of the United States.” But Europe must carry more of the burden, Landsbergis added, saying a defense buildup needs to happen alongside a continued partnership with the United States. Rasmussen offered a solution to all the unfolding chaos: “For good and bad, we need a global policeman, and the U.S. is the only power on earth that can exercise that job.” Read Matt’s story on Rasmussen’s border deal thoughts here.
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The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security, connecting assets across domains with advanced capabilities and networking to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | BLINKEN’S POST-WAR THOUGHTS: Israel shouldn’t be an obstacle to Palestinian efforts to reform their governance structures, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told the World Economic Forum today. The U.S. is pushing the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the West Bank, to make changes as part of a long-term goal of having it run the Gaza Strip, where Israel is battling Hamas militants in a war that has killed more than 20,000 people. Blinken said Palestinian leaders appeared open to reform, but he acknowledged deep resistance among Israeli leaders to a future role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has long sought to weaken the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian Authority “has to be able to operate in what you might call a permissive environment. In other words, with the support, with the help of Israel, not with its active opposition,” Blinken told the audience in Switzerland. “Because even the most effective Authority is going to have a lot of trouble if it’s got the active opposition.” Blinken wouldn’t, however, put a timeframe on how long such reforms could take. “I personally feel the fierce urgency of now,” he said. “It’s not that any of this happens overnight. It’s not like it’s flipping a light switch.” HOSTAGE AID DEAL: A rare diplomatic breakthrough mediated by Qatar and France is allowing life-saving medicine and other critical aid to flow to hostages being held by the Hamas militant group. A pair of Qatari air force planes left the country, and at least one of the planes carrying medicine landed in Egypt this morning, per The Washington Post’s SHIRA RUBIN, NIHA MASIH and ANNABELLE TIMSIT. The deal to transfer the supplies is now underway, an Israeli official told WaPo. On Tuesday night, Netanyahu’s office said Mossad head DAVID BARNEA helped negotiate the deal. A list prepared by Israel showed that the supplies were purchased in France, WaPo wrote, and Qatari representatives are responsible for delivering the aid. HOUTHIS ON THE LIST: The Biden administration put Yemen’s Houthi militants back on one of its terrorist organization lists because of their strikes on shipping vessels in the Red Sea, per a White House release. “If the Houthis cease their attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, the United States will immediately reevaluate this designation,” national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said in the statement. The designation will take effect in 30 days. A senior administration official, speaking anonymously with reporters ahead of the announcement as a condition of the briefing, said that “the ultimate goal of sanctions is to convince the Houthis to de-escalate and bring about a positive change in behavior.” Naming the Houthis as a specially designated global terrorist group reverses a previous order by the Biden administration to remove the label due to fears of it hurting potential peace talks and Yemen’s struggling economy. The Trump administration first placed the group on the terrorist list. Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, blasted the Biden administration for not designating the Houthis as foreign terrorist organization instead, which was the label initially given to the group. The label given today only applies sanctions, he said in a statement, and “avoids taking any real action.” IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | DESANTIS’ IRAN PLAN: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS blasted the Biden administration today for its handling of Iran, promising harsh sanctions on the country if he’s elected president. “The way you deal with Iran is you turn the financial screws on them, you deny them money going into the regime,” he said during a CNN town hall Tuesday night. “Biden relaxed sanctions on Iran. Why would you do that? They're going to take that money, and they're gonna use it for nefarious purposes.” The Biden administration was heavily criticized for releasing $6 billion in frozen funds to Iran in a prisoner swap last year. DeSantis added that his administration would “starve” Tehran of money to make them incapable of aggressive actions in the Middle East.
| | CYBER DRONES: The FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency today strongly warned of cyber threats from Chinese-manufactured drones and advised U.S. critical infrastructure groups to steer clear, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The joint advisory is the latest effort by the federal government to clamp down on use of Chinese-made technologies and underlines the growing tensions between Washington and Beijing over technology competition, among other issues. The advisory noted the Chinese-manufactured drones, “pose a significant threat to critical infrastructure and U.S. national security.” The advisory pointed to Chinese intelligence laws that require Chinese companies to share data with the state if asked and to potential cyber vulnerabilities in the products. HACKERS CLIMB EVERY MOUNTAIN: Switzerland’s Federal Council blamed Russian-linked hackers for an attack today that temporarily knocked several Swiss government websites offline, Maggie writes in. In a statement, the Federal Council blamed Russian cybercriminal group “NoName” for the attack, which took place the day after Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY was attending the World Economic Forum. According to the Swiss government, NoName carried out the attack in retaliation for Zelenskyy’s presence, and took down several websites temporarily including some for Swiss federal agencies and offices. No data was stolen in the attack, and certain government websites were only briefly unavailable. Switzerland’s National Cyber Security Center had anticipated the attacks and had warned critical infrastructure groups in the country to be prepared, according to the statement.
| | ‘WARFIGHTING TRANSFORMATION’: A top NATO official said member countries need to be on high alert for war and "expect the unexpected," our own JOSHUA POSANER reports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed the calculus for NATO militaries who spent years complacent in an era of relative peace. Now, Dutch Adm. ROB BAUER, chair of the alliance's military committee, argued, all 31 member states must prepare for "an era in which anything can happen at any time, an era in which we need to expect the unexpected, an era in which we need to focus on effectiveness in order to be fully effective.” Bauer argued that public-private cooperation will be key for “a warfighting transformation of NATO.” His remarks could also mean increased investment in defense and new military technologies. But the war in Ukraine has strapped the defense industry, with strained supply chains preventing a rapid buildup of arms to replenish what has already been sent to Kyiv. That means it could take years of sustained investment and attention to produce the items NATO countries will need to handle the more turbulent era Bauer describes. TRANSATLANTIC TALKS: A group of parliamentarians from several European countries is in Washington this week to meet with counterparts in Congress about Ukraine, and what’s ahead for U.S. military assistance, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The group, comprising the heads of foreign affairs committees from the U.K., France, Lithuania, Spain, Canada and the Czech Republic, will also discuss goals for the NATO summit in Washington in July that marks the alliance’s 75th anniversary. China is also on the agenda, ŽYGIMANTAS PAVILIONIS, the chair of the Lithuanian parliament's foreign affairs committee, told our colleagues. “China is the biggest challenge, we understand that,” he said. “But you can't contain China without European support. If you want to [deal with] China, if you want to get rid of Chinese technologies and ban Huawei from 5G, you need Europe” on board with those plans. Read: EU confident of Orbán U-turn on allowing money to Ukraine by our own GREGORIO SORGI
| | DAVOS DOWN: The glitzy affair that is Davos was mostly devoid of a perennial fixture this year: American lawmakers, Alex reports. The congressional delegation of two senators and five House members in Davos was unusually small. After stops in nearby European countries, the bicameral and bipartisan group arrived on the Magic Mountain on Sunday night, with all but Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) leaving Tuesday at dawn. The event itself doesn’t end until Friday. Political turmoil dragged the elected officials back home, as votes to keep the government open and negotiations over more military aid for allies required their presence. That left many opportunities to engage foreign counterparts and private-sector leaders on the table — as well as a lingering sense that America’s domestic issues turned Washington’s attention away from the world. “Everyone would love for us to stay,” said one of the CODEL members. “We had to turn down meetings with presidents because we wouldn’t be here … we could’ve accomplished more.”
| | | |   | | | | | PAKISTAN (AND IRAN) PISSED: Pakistan recalled its ambassador in Tehran today a day after Iran’s airstrikes on the country killed two children, The Associated Press’ MUNIR AHMED and JON GAMBRELL report. “Last night’s unprovoked and blatant breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty by Iran is a violation of international law,” MUMTAZ ZAHRA BALOCH, spokesperson for Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, said in a televised address announcing the ambassador’s recall. Iranian Defense Minister MOHAMMAD REZA ASHTIANI wasn’t happy about that, saying that Tehran his country would “not set any limits” on using missiles against enemies, The New York Times’ VIVIAN YEE and FARNAZ FASSIHI report. “Wherever they want to threaten the Islamic Republic of Iran, we will react, and this reaction will definitely be proportionate, tough and decisive,” told reporters, per state media. HAMSTRINGING HAMAS: The European Union is set to announce new sanctions on Hamas on Monday, three EU diplomats told our own BARBARA MOENS. The new sanctions are set to hit the financing sources of Hamas and target several individuals linked to the group.
| | — Former Deputy Director of the National Security Agency GEORGE BARNES will lead Red Cell’s cybersecurity practice, joining former Secretary of Defense MARK ESPER at the venture capital firm, Bloomberg News’ LIZETTE CHAPMAN reports.
| | — DANIEL LEVY, The New York Times: Team Biden needs a reset on Israel — HAL BRANDS, Bloomberg: Ukraine’s desperate hour: Is U.S. to blame for Kyiv’s struggles? — JOSH ROGIN, The Washington Post: Taiwan doesn’t want to be a pawn in the U.S.-China competition
| | — United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: Religious actors and peacebuilding in Ukraine — House Homeland Security Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Voices for the victims: The heartbreaking reality of the Mayorkas border crisis — Arab Center, 10 a.m.: Gaza and the crime of genocide: legal and political dimensions of accountability — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The U.S. arms control agenda: a discussion with NSC Senior Director PRANAY VADDI — Brookings Institution, 11:15 a.m.: A new maritime partnership for the Atlantic — House Foreign Affairs Western Hemisphere Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: The myth of the new Cuban entrepreneurs: an analysis of the Biden administration's Cuba policy — RAND Corporation, 4 p.m.: What Americans think about veterans — and why it matters, focusing on benefits, military recruitment and budget decisions Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who blames us for the various conflicts around the world. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who knows how to solve all the world’s problems.
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At Lockheed Martin, our mission is to deliver seamless and secure integrated deterrence with advanced systems that serve as intelligent nodes in the networked battlespace. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
