Score gathered together some of POLITICO’s most tuned-in presidential campaign reporters to share what they’re keeping an eye on in the final stretch before the Iowa caucuses. What are you watching throughout the week? What's so strange about this next week is that Trump will be spending two days — Tuesday and Thursday — sitting in courtrooms rather than out on the campaign trail. He was in Iowa over the weekend, and has plans to do a Fox News town hall and a rally blitz next weekend. But the split screen of a leading candidate in court and on the trail will be unprecedented and weird. — Meridith McGraw Does former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley have massive crowds trying to see her in Iowa this week? And I don’t mean “Did her advance staff successfully fill a 200-person room to capacity?” because they’ve done a great job of that in Iowa for nearly a year now. But with a few other candidates also fighting for voters’ attention this week across the state, I’m interested in whether droves of Iowans will turn up to see her. — Natalie Allison I’m interested to hear how well Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is resonating. On paper, DeSantis did everything he was supposed to do to win Iowa by having a strong conservative policy record, visiting all 99 counties and getting the most coveted endorsements. For voters who aren’t convinced by his candidacy: What’s missing? — Kimberly Leonard I'm watching whether businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy turns out a non-traditional caucus-goer that maybe hasn't caucused before, including college students. His argument is that these supporters aren't registering in the polls, which show him in fourth. — Adam Wren Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie means it when he says he’s staking his campaign on New Hampshire. While everyone else is camping out in Iowa this week, Christie is returning to the Granite State on Tuesday for a multi-day swing and is in the midst of a seven-figure advertising blitz there. His allied super PAC is also up on the airwaves in the Granite State. Christie's campaign says it doesn’t have anyone on the ground in Iowa and has no plans to go there. — Lisa Kashinsky What’s one thing you’ll be watching on the night of the caucus? I'll be paying attention to the Northwest corner of the state. The four counties in the corner of the state are ruby red, having the highest concentration of Republicans and predominantly evangelical Christian populations. It will be interesting to see where their support goes, and what strength Trump has there versus his rivals. — Meridith Do Iowa's Evangelicals stick with Trump, or does the Bob Vander Plaats machine crank to life and deliver Ron DeSantis a surprise victory? — Adam Trump is poised to take Iowa. But it’s still possible that DeSantis will exceed expectations. I’ll be watching how his campaign frames the results. If he does worse than expected: Who will be blamed? — Kimberly I'll be watching to see whether we get a result at all. We all remember Democrats' meltdown four years ago. But Republicans' record here isn't unblemished either. Back in the 2012 caucuses, it appeared then-former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had won. Then, two weeks later, the state GOP said, no, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) actually won. Then the next day, it said it was too close to call. Finally, in a statement in the middle of the night some 17 days after the caucuses, the state party officially declared Santorum the winner. — Steve Shepard What would count as a good night for the candidate you’re covering? I was reminded by a Trump staffer that no candidate has ever won Iowa by more than 12 points. The Trump campaign is looking to win by an even greater margin than that, and so I'll be looking to see if his dominance in the polls is reflected in Monday's results. — Meridith By Haley’s top surrogate Chris Sununu’s measure, it’s coming in second in Iowa. He announced recently that she would, so hard to say anything less than that (even a close third) can count as a win there for her now. — Natalie DeSantis needs at a minimum to come in as a close second place, otherwise there will be a widespread sense that his campaign is effectively over. That kind of showing would give some credence to the idea that he has a shot against Trump and also give him momentum heading into other early primary states. It would also help vindicate his all-in-on-Iowa strategy. — Kimberly Happy Monday. Many thanks to Meridith, Natalie, Kimberly, Adam, Lisa and Steve for the insight today. What are you keeping an eye on this week? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 7 Days until the New Hampshire presidential primaries: 15 Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 29 Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 31 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 47 Days until Super Tuesday: 57 Days until the Republican National Convention: 190 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 225 Days until the 2024 election: 303
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