| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters he hadn’t made any commitments on reneging on his spending deal. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | SHUTDOWN SHOWDOWN — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER moved toward a stopgap bill to keep the government open, filing cloture on a shell for a continuing resolution. But hard-line House Republicans emerged from a meeting with Speaker MIKE JOHNSON today telling reporters that Johnson is going to renege on his topline spending deal with Schumer and draw up a new plan, which could get the far right to agree to a CR — but would fall flat with the Senate, of course. If true, that could unleash chaos on the Hill and make a government shutdown much more likely. But, but, but: Johnson then came out and said he hadn’t made any commitments, per Olivia Beavers. More at Inside Congress Live FOUR DAYS TO IOWA — A new Suffolk University poll of Iowa finds DONALD TRUMP cruising and NIKKI HALEY nudging ahead of Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS for second (54%, 20% and 13%, respectively). With CHRIS CHRISTIE gone, Haley ticks up to 22%. And Haley still has a potential, if narrow, path to upset Trump for the nomination, as Charlie Mahtesian sketches out: She knocks DeSantis out in Iowa, overperforms in New Hampshire, emerges as a real Trump alternative in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday, and benefits from the frontrunner’s legal woes. That’s just the kind of “doomsday scenario” that Trump advisers fear, reports 24sight’s Tom LoBianco: “a surprise two-person contest.” But the headwinds are strong for Haley: A Daily Mail snap poll found that viewers by far gave DeSantis the win in last night’s debate. Trump launched a new ad hammering Haley on entitlements. And she’s the subject of a big, skeptical new treatment today from The Atlantic’s Mark Leibovich, who follows her on the campaign trail and concludes that despite her political gifts and reasonable, sturdy tone, the substance of her message is often wobbly or lacking: “Beyond her expertly rendered deliveries, Haley’s actual answers can be mushy or even nonsensical, with strange constructions and frequent malaprops.” One more potential wrinkle: No Labels was eyeing Christie for a potential presidential bid on their ticket before he dropped out of the GOP primary and was talking to people in his orbit, NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard and Shaquille Brewster scooped from Des Moines, though Christie has said he’s not to open that. More Iowa stories: Bloomberg’s Gregory Korte and Stephanie Lai break down Iowa’s political geography and how the leading economies of different regions will benefit each candidate. … Reuters’ James Oliphant, Leah Douglas and P.J. Huffstutter find that Iowa’s farmers are still strong for Trump, despite his plans for trade wars that could disrupt their livelihoods. … The L.A. Times’ Faith Pinho profiles one family that ditched California for Iowa to better align with their politics — and now is tasked with a big caucus decision. … NYT’s Jennifer Medina rounds up a range of Iowa voters, in their own words.
| | | | A message from Instagram: More than 75% of parents want to approve the apps teens under 16 download.
According to a new poll from Morning Consult, more than 75% of parents agree: Teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps from app stores without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more.
1"US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads" by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023. | | | INFLATION NATION — The latest consumer price index data today offered some mixed signals: Inflation sped up slightly in December, ticking up to a 3.4% year-over-year increase from 3.1% in November. But core inflation, stripping out fuel and food, fell to a 3.9% annual increase — the first time it’s fallen beneath 4% in nearly three years. The data showed that even though policymakers have brought inflation way down, the final road to the Fed’s 2% target will be a bumpy one. Today’s news dampened hopes that a rate cut might be coming soon, though the central bank isn’t expected to raise rates further. What it means for ordinary consumers (and voters): Americans are still facing overall higher prices across many sectors of their lives, squeezing pocketbooks. Wages are rising and consumer sentiment is improving. And while some prices have fallen — like televisions dropping 10% over the past year — rising housing costs remain a major sore spot. More from WaPo BIG BLINKEN SWING — From Vera Bergengruen’s Time cover story on the secretary of State: “[President JOE] BIDEN promised to restore American leadership on the world stage after the chaos of the Trump years. But his tenure has been as much defined by evidence of its limits. … The question hanging over it all is whether the U.S. is still capable of steering an increasingly dangerous world. More than anyone else in America besides Biden, it falls to [ANTONY] BLINKEN to supply the answer.“ Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | |  | 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | | 
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's hospital stay is now prompting an IG probe. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | 1. BIDEN CABINET IN THE HOT SEAT: The Pentagon inspector general said today it will investigate Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN’s secrecy and notifications around his hospitalization. More from Bloomberg … DHS told House Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) that Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS will agree to appear before the panel as it works to impeach him — but not next week, as Republicans wanted, Bloomberg Government’s Ellen Gilmer scooped. Green responded angrily to the news. Read the letter 2. THE TRUMP FRAUD TRIAL: “Trump’s Lawyers Use Closing Arguments to Attack N.Y. Attorney General,” by NYT’s Jonah Bromwich and Ben Protess: “Painting [TISH] JAMES as a rogue official, Mr. Trump’s legal team argued that she had no actual evidence buttressing her claims, only partisan talking points. … Lawyers for the New York attorney general are expected to counter that the former president violated state laws by exaggerating his net worth to obtain favorable loans and other financial benefits.” Trump spoke briefly at the trial, but Judge ARTHUR ENGORON cut him off. … Earlier today, there was a bomb threat at Engoron’s Long Island home, per NBC. 3. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: The NRCC is stepping up its early ground game across the districts of 21 GOP-held seats that could be competitive this fall, Axios’ Stef Kight reports. The eight-figure investment will fund “battle station” field offices in an effort to get door-knocking and turnout operations humming early — trying to counter Democrats’ early-vote advantage. The majority of the districts are in California and New York, which broader RNC resources won’t emphasize as much since they’re not swing states, making early NRCC moves all the more essential. 4. THE NEW ELECTORATE: “For the Biden Campaign, Mobilizing Young Latinos Will Be Harder Than Most Realize,” by The Messenger’s Adrian Carrasquillo: “22% of Latinos will be voting in their first presidential election in 2024, with a surprising 38% of the Latino electorate — nearly 4 in 10 voters — being new since [HILLARY] CLINTON and Donald Trump faced off … [There’s] a boom of U.S.-born young Latinos entering the electorate who care less about immigration and won’t be reached through Spanish-language ads on Univision and Telemundo. … [T]he campaign eyes the social media juggernaut TikTok as a key part of the media mix for young Latinos.”
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | 5. LORDY, THERE ARE TAPES: “New Recording Shows NRA Treasurer Plotting to Conceal Extravagant Expenses Involving Wayne LaPierre,” by Mike Spies: “Secret audio obtained by The Trace and ProPublica reveals executives from the gun group and its PR firm hatching a plan that would conceal payments for fancy hotels, limousines, and other luxury expenses for a decade. … The recording was unknown to New York’s attorney general, who is pursuing the NRA and [WAYNE] LaPIERRE over a range of alleged financial misdeeds.” 6. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: One big trend to watch this year in GOP-dominated state capitols: further legislation to clamp down on gender transition-related medical care for children, and in some cases even adults, AP’s Andrew DeMillo and Hannah Schoenbaum report. Just this month, Ohio, South Carolina and New Hampshire have already moved closer to new bans. Other bills will target transgender issues related to schools, from pronouns to bathrooms to books to sports teams. And legal challenges to some of the recent laws could start making their way toward the Supreme Court. 7. MEGATREND: Tumbling murder rates across much of the U.S. last year are starting to make the pandemic-era spike seem like just a temporary aberration, fueled by Covid-related disruptions and the aftermath of GEORGE FLOYD’s murder, NYT’s German Lopez writes. Overall violent crime neared a half-century low mark, which could give Democrats a political boost after concerns about crime dominated Republican messaging in 2022. 8. ANNALS OF CAMPAIGN FINANCE: “Republicans Are Making ‘Dark Money’ Even Darker for 2024,” by The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger: “[L]ate last month, one small outside group quietly told election law regulators to shove off when watchdogs demanded to see the group’s donors, a move that legal experts say could signal a profound shift in campaign finance disclosure laws … [A]s a justification, the [climate advocacy] group cited a policy statement from the FEC’s three Republican commissioners released in June 2022, signaling they would not enforce ‘dark money’ disclosure rules as courts had previously decided.” 9. THE SYMBOLIC PRIMARY: New Hampshire won’t send any binding delegates to the Democratic convention, and Biden has mostly ignored the primary, but that hasn’t stopped the state’s Dems from working hard to deliver a big write-in victory for him, New Hampshire Public Radio’s Josh Rogers reports. And though Biden is expected to win, concerns about his age and disappointments with his tenure are tipping some voters to Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) or MARIANNE WILLIAMSON, Reuters’ Jarrett Renshaw reports from Manchester.
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Ted Cruz raised $5.5 million last quarter. Ilhan Omar raised $1.6 million. Mark Robinson privately met with Virginia Thomas in 2021. Kim Reynolds has a burner X account. Jill Biden said Republicans’ treatment of Hunter Biden is “cruel” and has hurt her grandchildren. SPOTTED: FTC Chair Lina Khan meeting in Cannon this morning with Congressional Black Caucus Chair Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) right after Sam Altman finished a meeting with him. TRANSITIONS — The Biden campaign is rolling out its leadership team for battleground states, USA Today’s Joey Garrison and David Jackson scooped: Dan Kanninen as battleground states director, Lauren Brainerd as deputy battleground states director and Josh Marcus-Blank as comms director. … Jeremy Slevin will be senior adviser for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). He currently is senior adviser for Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). … Sarah Flaim is now a managing director at DCI Group, focused on comms and congressional strategy. She most recently was GOP comms director and senior adviser for House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas). … … Melissa Walsh will be VP of U.S. state and local government relations and community and public affairs at McDonald’s. She most recently was VP for state government affairs at AbbVie. … The Afghanistan War Commission is adding Mariam Jalalzada as senior adviser for Afghan outreach and Pamela Faber Shearman as deputy research director. Jalalzada most recently was senior research analyst at the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. Shearman most recently was a senior research scientist and coordinator of the Africa security portfolio at the Center for Naval Analyses. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM misspelled Speaker Mike Johnson’s name.
| | | | Sponsored Survey WE WANT TO HEAR FROM YOU: Please take a 1-minute survey about one of our advertising partners | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
