| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | NEW THIS MORNING — “The Nikki Haley surge in New Hampshire may have peaked, Globe poll finds,” by the Boston Globe’s James Pindell: “[T]he latest poll by the Boston Globe/Suffolk University/USA Today finds that [NIKKI] HALEY has either leveled off or her support has cooled in recent weeks. She is now down 20 points to [DONALD] TRUMP, 46 to 26.” But, but, but … “Haley trims Trump’s lead to single digits in New Hampshire,” by CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy: “Support for Haley has risen 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, continuing an upward trajectory that began last summer.” As for November … “In new poll of N.H. voters, Trump leads Nikki Haley but trails Biden in general election rematch,” by the Globe’s Matt Stout and Jim Puzzanghera: “[JOE] BIDEN received nearly 42 percent to Trump’s 34 percent, among 1,000 likely voters, nearly identical to Biden’s victory margin in New Hampshire in 2020.” More results from the Globe
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Donald Trump speaks at a rally at Des Moines Area Community College in Newton, Iowa, Jan. 6, 2024. | Andrew Harnik/AP | THE PRETTYMAN PRIMARY — The Iowa Caucuses are in just six days. Usually that means candidates are practically living in the state, hitting multiple towns a day, and building excitement for a major turnout operation next Monday evening. But the GOP frontrunner is in Washington today. Trump said he will be attending oral arguments before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on whether he is immune from prosecution for election subversion, which will take place at 9:30 a.m. on the fifth floor of the E. Barrett Prettyman Courthouse. You can listen in yourself if you like. Whatever the D.C. Circuit decides, the Supreme Court is likely to have the final word on the issue. District Court Judge TANYA CHUTKAN struck down the Trump team’s immunity claim last month, and how that question is resolved — and how quickly — will determine whether Trump stands trial in the case this year. The three-judge panel hearing the case consists of a GEORGE H.W. BUSH appointee, KAREN LeCRAFT HENDERSON (fun fact: she replaced KENNETH STARR on the court in 1990), and two Biden appointees, J. MICHELLE CHILDS (fun fact: LINDSEY GRAHAM recommended that Biden nominate her to the Supreme Court) and FLORENCE Y. PAN (fun fact: she replaced KETANJI BROWN JACKSON on the D.C. Circuit in 2022). Childs was confirmed by the Senate in a 64-34 vote, and Pan 68-30. There is some intrigue around an unsigned notice the court sent to both parties asking them to be prepared to address "any inquiries by the court regarding discrete issues raised" in amicus briefs. Legal analysts will be watching closely to see if the three judges question Trump’s lawyers about an issue raised by the watchdog group American Oversight, which Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney report “has argued that Trump’s appeal on the immunity issue is not ripe because criminal defendants normally have to wait until they’re convicted before challenging their indictment at an appeals court.” Trump’s visit to Washington to attend oral arguments that don’t require his presence is the latest example of how the former president is using the criminal indictments against him to steal attention from his primary rivals. Trump yesterday “falsely told supporters in an email that he was being ‘forced’ off the campaign trail on the eve of GOP primary voting to attend the appeals court arguments, even though criminal defendants rarely attend appellate proceedings and are not required to do so,” Josh and Kyle note. The political press corps would normally be hyper-focused on the final days of campaigning by the candidates in Iowa this week. Instead, all eyes will be on Trump’s courtroom appearance today — and again on Thursday, when Trump says he will attend the closing arguments in his civil fraud trial in New York.
| | | | A message from Instagram: More than 75% of parents want to approve the apps teens under 16 download.
According to a new poll from Morning Consult, more than 75% of parents agree: Teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps from app stores without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more. | | | PAROLE POLITICS — The Senate border talks are faltering. Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla), one of the three core negotiators trying to craft an immigration-policy-for-foreign-aid deal, told reporters Monday that there would be no framework agreement this week. After briefing his GOP colleagues he told reporters, “There's too many unanswered issues.” The biggest sticking point remains the presidential asylum authority known as parole, which Republicans want to severely restrict. Curtailing parole, which gives presidents wide latitude to temporarily admit migrants for humanitarian or other reasons, is a red line for many progressives, and so far the Biden administration has refused to give any ground on the issue. We’ll be watching this one very closely because it’s emerging as the key issue that could decide whether Congress takes up Biden’s $100 billion-plus foreign aid request for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. CBS reported on Sunday that the White House “is weighing whether to restrict” parole: “[D]uring a White House meeting on Friday, Mr. Biden's advisers recognized that a border deal with Republicans would not be possible without the administration agreeing on limiting parole, people briefed on those talks told CBS News.” A source close to the talks told Playbook that Biden advisers didn’t cede any ground and that parole remains off the table for the White House. “From what I’ve heard, this was a conversation about the political reality that the GOP is going to demand more than what is in the Senate framework, including changes to parole,” the source said. “But they didn’t make decisions about whether they will negotiate with the GOP on Trump policies like ending parole. They have consistently told us that they won’t do that and it’s not a part of the Senate framework.” The activists worried that Biden will sell them out on immigration in order to secure funding for Ukraine remain confident that parole will scuttle the possibility of a deal. However, it would not be totally surprising if Democrats were holding back on the issue of parole and waiting to negotiate on it if and when the talks move from the Senate to the more hard-line Republican House. But it will be a heavy lift. Asked why parole is such a tough issue, Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) told reporters that “many of us warned that it’s not a good idea to condition the salvation of Ukraine and Europe on our ability to craft a comprehensive immigration reform. Period.” Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — If the border talks weren’t difficult enough, DHS Secretary and administration point man ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS is under threat of impeachment by House Republicans, and the White House is now moving to rally support for him — enlisting Hill Democrats, TV surrogates, and outside groups to back the embattled secretary in the coming weeks. New talking points going out this morning advise White House allies to contrast Mayorkas’ “working across the aisle to find bipartisan solutions for the border” with House Republicans’ “baseless and extreme political stunt.” It also quotes GOP lawmakers who have criticized the impeachment push. Read the memo The document comes after weeks of coordination between the White House and DHS on how to handle the impending impeachment, a person familiar with the effort tells Playbook. Senior Biden aides have also spoken with Mayorkas in recent days to finalize their strategy.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in. The House will meet at 6:30 p.m. for a quorum call vote. 3 things to watch …
- Things are heating up for Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, with lawmakers in both parties yesterday demanding answers pronto on his surreptitious hospitalization. After previously holding his fire, House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) said he was “quickly losing faith” in Austin’s ability to lead, while Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), the Senate Armed Services ranking Republican, accused Austin and deputies of flouting the law and demanded a “quick hearing” on what happened. Added SASC Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.): “This lack of disclosure must never happen again.”
- The House returns today from its holiday recess, and the big question is: How big is the “Shut Down the Border or Shut Down the Government” crowd? That’s the mantra of a growing group of GOP hard-liners, led most vocally by Rep. CHIP ROY (R-Texas), who want to insist on tough new immigration restrictions as a condition for passing any new fiscal 2024 appropriations. With topline spending caps now agreed to, that could be the biggest obstacle to avoiding a government shutdown in the coming weeks.
- Related question: Will there be another short-term CR? With scant time to turn the caps deal into passable legislation, it’s a distinct possibility, Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes report. Senate leaders acknowledged yesterday a new stopgap is an option, but you can expect the idea to get a chilly reception from House Republicans as they trickle back into the Capitol.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief this afternoon. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Atlanta to participate in a roundtable discussion about voting rights in the afternoon. On the trail Fox News holds a town hall event with RON DeSANTIS at 6 p.m.
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Donald Trump arrives to speak at a commit to caucus rally, Jan. 6, in Clinton, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP | AS FOR THE 14TH AMENDMENT CASE — Josh Gerstein breaks down the various ways in which the Supreme Court could dodge a decision that would either remove Donald Trump from the ballot or grant him “an unqualified legal and public-relations victory.” Just some of the options: SCOTUS could declare the president isn’t an “officer” under the 14th Amendment insurrection clause … agree the Colorado Supreme Court trial “didn’t do enough to safeguard Trump’s rights” … or invoke “‘political question doctrine,’ to bow out of the issue of Trump’s disqualification.” A visual analyzing the various indictments …”Trump’s Pattern of Pressure to Overturn the 2020 Election,” by NYT’s Lazaro Gamio and Karen Yourish WHOA IF TRUE — A new court filing out yesterday alleges that Georgia DA FANI WILLIS has inappropriately employed a romantic partner as a special prosecutor against Donald Trump and reaped financial benefits from their connection, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Bill Rankin and Tamar Hallerman scooped. The details: “The bombshell public filing alleged that special prosecutor NATHAN WADE, a private attorney, paid for lavish vacations he took with Willis using the Fulton County funds his law firm received. County records show that Wade, who has played a prominent role in the election interference case, has been paid nearly $654,000 in legal fees since January 2022. The DA authorizes his compensation.” “The motion, filed on behalf of defendant MICHAEL ROMAN, a former Trump campaign official, seeks to have the charges against Roman dismissed and for Willis, Wade and the entire DA’s office to be disqualified from further prosecution of the case. PALLAVI BAILEY, a Willis spokeswoman, said the DA’s office will respond to Roman’s allegations ‘through appropriate court filings.’” More top reads:
- Chutkan was the latest victim in a recent spate of false “swatting” incidents. AP's Lindsay Whitehurst reports that police responded Sunday night to a report of a shooting at a house the judge owns in Washington. “But officers quickly found out that no shooting happened, the Metropolitan Police Department said Monday.”
- And she’s not the only one … NBC News’ Michael Kosnar and Zoë Richards scoop that special counsel JACK SMITH’s Maryland home was also targeted, on Christmas Day: “According to two law enforcement sources, someone called 911 and said that Smith had shot his wife at the address where Smith lives. Montgomery County Police dispatched units toward the home but were called off when the Deputy U.S. Marshals protecting Smith and his family told police that it was a false alarm.”
MORE POLITICS
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California Assemblymember Vince Fong, center, is on the March ballot seeking to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy following his resignation. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP | CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’ — The House seat once belonging to former Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY could remain vacant until late May under a schedule approved Monday by California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM. Ballots will be counted March 19, with a May 21 runoff to follow if necessary, giving “Republican hopefuls a longer-than-expected window to mount a campaign for the solidly-red seat,” Lara Korte reports from Sacramento. More context: “Rather than consolidating it with the state’s March 5 primary, the governor scheduled the special primary election at a later date at the request of county officials. … Assemblymember VINCE FONG is running to replace his longtime mentor, and confirmed to POLITICO on Monday that he would compete in the special election as well [as the general election].” CACTUS CASH — The Arizona Senate race is heating up fast, with GOP candidate KARI LAKE's campaign announcing a fundraising haul of $2.1 million since her October launch, Ally Mutnick reports. “The National Republican Senatorial Committee has not yet endorsed in the primary but is working closely with Lake’s team.” Meanwhile, Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO’s campaign said it took in $3.3 million in Q4, giving it a $6.5 million war chest entering 2024, The Messenger's Matt Holt reports. More top reads:
- Rep. STENY HOYER (D-Md.) squashed retirement rumors, announcing he’s running for his 23rd term in Congress this year in an interview with WaPo’s Erin Cox: “[Hoyer’s] long tenure and departure from leadership helped fuel speculation he might step aside in 2024, questions amplified when he remarried in June after 26 years as a widower. … Hoyer, who is on the Appropriations Committee, cited securing funding for the FBI headquarters as unfinished business he wants to conclude.”
- Also running … Rep. ANN WAGNER (R-Mo.), who announced her reelection bid in a statement on X last night.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | 2024 WATCH
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Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign stop, Dec. 30, 2023, in Coralville, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP | HALEY’S COMET — With the Iowa caucuses just around the corner, Haley picked up an endorsement yesterday from veteran Republican contributor and fundraiser CAM SUTTON, The Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller reports — “ a former finance co-chair for the Republican Party of Iowa [who] has donated to and raised money for most major Republican elected officials in Iowa over the last decade.” “When we had Nikki in last week her approach to getting things done was to get people together in a room and find a solution," he said. "And if you have to lock the door before they go home, you did that. But in the end you came up with something that everybody could live with.” Meanwhile, Haley stood firm in her policy positions and took several swipes at Trump during last night’s Fox News town hall event, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman and Jazmine Ulloa report. Trump, she said, “‘copped out’ on the United States’ international alliances, lied about her record and brought turmoil with his presidency. … ‘Chaos follows him, and we cannot be a country in disarray,’ she said.” More top reads:
- Biden’s primary challengers DEAN PHILLIPS and MARIANNE WILLIAMSON “sparred in front of a crowd of seventh-graders and adults in a downtown Manchester ballroom,” Lisa Kashinsky reports. The two “tried to outflank Biden on the left by getting into an argument over Medicare for All” but “largely agreed on other issues.”
THE WHITE HOUSE DISPATCH FROM SOUTH CAROLINA — “Biden condemns white supremacy in a campaign speech at a church where Black people were killed,” by AP’s Colleen Long, Zeke Miller and Darlene Superville: “Biden spoke from the pulpit of Mother Emanuel AME Church, where in 2015 nine Black parishioners were shot to death by the white stranger they had invited to join their Bible study. … Biden also used his second major campaign event of the year to thank the state’s Black voters.” ANOTHER ONE — The Secret Service took a driver into custody yesterday evening after a collision at a White House gate, NBC News’ Ginger Gibson reports. POLICY CORNER FOCUS ON THE FAMILY — An informal, preliminary framework to expand access to paid family leave was unveiled by the House's bipartisan paid leave working group yesterday, WaPo’s Leigh Ann Caldwell reports. The four-part outline would “increase paid leave to more people through a combination of private-public, state-based partnerships backed by the federal government and federal tax incentives for small business[es] to provide paid leave.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY NEW YORK STATE OF MIND — As she prepares to deliver her third State of the State address today, New York Governor KATHY HOCHUL must balance the wishes of her party’s left flank against the concerns of Democratic House candidates, Nick Reisman reports this morning: “Democrats are watching Albany as this year’s legislative session unfolds, knowing that it will have an effect on the rest of the nation.” MISCELLANY PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “Bowser launches effort to reimagine Chinatown as loss of Caps, Wizards looms,” by WaPo’s Meagan Flynn
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Sarah Sidner is battling breast cancer. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. backed out of his own birthday party. Kamala Harris created a candle scent, and she’s not sharing. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Amy Rutkin is joining with the firms Kasirer and NVG in partnership with her new consultancy practice, Rutkin Strategies. She is retiring this week from her longtime role as chief of staff to Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) and staff director on the House Judiciary Committee. MEDIA MOVE — Brian Barrett is returning to Wired as executive editor. He most recently was VP of content at SpeakEasy AI, and is a former Wired executive editor and Gizmodo alum. NEW NOMINEE — The White House announced that Biden will nominate Jennifer Gavito as ambassador to Libya. TRANSITIONS — American Bridge is adding Caroline Closson as director of campaign programming and Alice Visocchi as political director. Closson previously was director of the Maryland Senate Democrats Caucus and is a DLCC alum. Visocchi is political director of The American Independent and a DCCC and Elizabeth Bennett-Parker alum. … Matthew Jackson is now assistant director of federal relations for the University of Kentucky. He previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) … … Abigail Jung will be a defense and foreign affairs legislative assistant for Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) . She previously was the aerospace and defense fellow for Del. James Moylan (R-Guam). … Mitch (Kost) Chaney is now a managing director at Innsena. She previously was the outreach and Coordination lead at HHS’ Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology. ENGAGED — Asher Allman, a professional staff member on the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee, and Theresa Jeffrey, a legislative assistant with Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), got engaged on Sunday in Alexandria, Virginia. Pic … Another pic WEEKEND WEDDING — William Mesinger, director at Meraki Communication Group and a Signal Group and Seven Letter alum, and Madeline Strack, a pediatric ICU nurse at Children’s National Hospital, got married this weekend at St. Peter’s Catholic Church on Capitol Hill. The couple met in September 2020 at Capitol Hill Cider House and celebrated their reception and after-parties at venues across the Georgetown Waterfront. Pic … SPOTTED: Alex Borisov, Morgan Dye, Tori Hairston, Katie LaRoque, Thomas Mathiasen, Carly Coakley, Dan King, Alyson Chwatek and Connor Murray. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sophia Setterberg, senior director of strategic comms for health care and life sciences at FTI Consulting, and Drew Setterberg, deputy director of congressional affairs for Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, recently welcomed Jesse Andrew Setterberg. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Linda Greenhouse … Brooke Brower … Pamela Walsh … U.N. Development Programme’s Sarah Jackson-Han … Richard Fontaine … New York Public Radio’s Kenya Young … Fred Wertheimer … Don Kent and Luke Holland of the Nickles Group … Tasha Hendershot … Richard Fowler … AARP’s Jodi Sakol … Deana Bass Williams … Dan Black … Meta’s Diana Doukas … Jessica Medeiros Garrison … Colin Campbell of Yahoo News … Sam Arora … Joe Onek of the Raben Group … former Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) … Al Felzenberg … former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin … Tim Punke of Monument Advocacy … Raman Kaur of the Brookings Institution … American Institute for Economic Research’s William Ruger … Scott Dacey of Pace Government Relations … Larry Sandigo … Isabelle Solomon … Various’ Raghu Manavalan … Ron Castleman … PBS’ Kristin Lehner … Peter Edelman of Georgetown Law Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Sam Spencer’s name.
| | | | A message from Instagram: New federal legislation will give parents a say in teen app downloads.
According to a new poll by Morning Consult conducted in November 2023, more than 75% of parents believe teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more.
1"US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads" by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
