Next stop: Davos

Jan 09, 2024

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HELLO AND WELCOME to the first Global Playbook of 2024! I’m Suzanne Lynch, ready to shepherd you through some of the big global moments of the year, as POLITICO’s international team of journalists gears up to again bring you unrivalled coverage from the globe’s most influential gatherings.

And what a year it promises to be. From the United States, to the EU, India and the U.K., billions of people are going to the polls in a series of elections that will set the political backdrop in some of the world’s largest democracies. More on what the tea leaves are saying below. But first, we’ve dusted off our snow boots for the first big international gathering on our calendar: the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

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FROM THE BEACH TO THE SKI SLOPES

SEE YOU ON THE MOUNTAIN: Having patted themselves on the backs after fixing climate change at the COP28 United Nations Climate Change Conference in the UAE last month, the world’s decision-makers (and their hangers-on) are swapping glitzy Dubai for equally glitzy Davos next week. Global Playbook will of course be on the ground bringing you all the news, gossip and inside access to the après-ski activities.

FULL MARKS FOR LONGEVITY: This is the 54th annual WEF gathering — yup, it’s been around for more than half a century. And what began as a small-town get-together has ballooned into a multi-million-dollar schmooze-fest that attracts the world’s richest and most powerful people.

Golden oldies: But the World Economic Forum is also suffering from an affliction that has permeated the U.S. political system: a reluctance to pass the torch to a younger generation. Just as Joe Biden and Donald Trump have refused to step back to make room for the next crop of Democrats and Republicans, 85-year-old Klaus Schwab continues to cling to power at the organization he founded, shying away from discussions on a succession timetable.

Trust barometer: The WEF likes to lean in to some big themes. This year, it’s “Rebuilding Trust,” with the organizers highlighting the need to focus on “the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency and accountability.” Perhaps a motto it needs to live by when it comes to its own secretive corporate structures.

WHO’S COMING: The full list of leaders and political bigwigs is still in flux, but according to the WEF, representatives from 100 governments will be jetting in, as well as 1,000 “partner companies,” plus the usual smattering of civil society groups, media and celebs. Our first Playbook from the Alps on Monday will have the latest line-up.

COP OUT

REHASH: The last time you heard from Global Playbook, we were chucking our burner sim cards in the trash and high-tailing it out of Dubai after the curtain closed on COP28 (and opened on Dubai’s so-called Winter Wonderland).

PLUS ÇA CHANGE: To misquote Oscar Wilde, to appoint one oil chief to lead international climate talks may be regarded as a misfortune, but to appoint two …? And yet that’s exactly what’s happened when Azerbaijan chose former state oil exec Mukhtar Babayev to head up COP29.

Background: Controversy engulfed the COP28 talks in Dubai over the decision to appoint Sultan al-Jaber, chief executive of the UAE’s national oil company, to chair the world’s most important forum to address climate change. Now Azerbaijan, which emerged from a murky geopolitical backroom as the unlikely COP29 host, has tapped 56-year-old Babayev, the country’s ecology minister who previously had a decades-long career with the national oil company SOCAR, as the next COP president.

Petro states on top: NGOs and climate activists reacted (predictably) with fury. But industry players — and the U.N. itself — backed Babayev’s appointment, noting that the COP28 talks did achieve the first-ever commitment to move away from fossil fuels. The stark reality, however, is that yet again, a country with a dismal record on the green energy transition will be in the COP driving seat. (Fossil fuels make up more than 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s exports.)

TRUE BELIEVERS? Given the record-breaking number of attendees at COP28 in Dubai, also known as the “City of Gold,” Playbook wonders if we’ll see the same enthusiasm in Baku, which has a much less appealing nickname: the “City of Winds.” Let’s see how many corporate types make the trip to the ex-Soviet state on the Caspian.

Captive market: Meanwhile, it seems Dubai is still trying to capitalize on its moment in the sun. Our social media feed has been inundated with ads for upcoming Dubai property expos taking place in Brussels and across Europe this year. Nope, not tempted.

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GLOBETROTTING

VIEW FROM DOWN UNDER: Full disclosure: Some of this newsletter was written at 33,000 feet above ground as I was winging my way back from Christmas in Australia just in time for the arrival of sub-zero temperatures in Europe.

One story making the headlines Down Under: Australia’s new queen. Crown Princess Mary of Denmark (known in her humbler days as Mary Donaldson) met her future husband, Denmark’s Crown Prince Frederik, in a Sydney pub called the Slip Inn (yes, really) during the 2000 Olympics — the hair-raising story of their flirtatious first encounter is worth a read. On Sunday, Mary will sit upon the Danish throne, after her mother-in-law Queen Margrethe II announced she would be abdicating in a TV address on New Year’s Eve.

Deadly summer: But the big focus in Australia has been on climate, as the country’s east coast has been hit by devastating downpours and deadly flooding over the Christmas period. Environmental policy is a notoriously tricky political issue in Australia, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters, though Prime Minister Anthony Albanese came to power in 2022 in part on a promise to tackle climate change. Significantly though, the Aussie PM missed COP28 — in part over grumbles that he was spending too much time abroad. Let’s see if he makes it to Baku.

ELECTIONEERING

WHAT EVERYONE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT ON MONDAY: One of the most closely watched elections of this year will take place this coming weekend, when Taiwan goes to the polls at a time of bristling tension in the region and between China and the U.S. Our man on the ground in Taipei, Stuart Lau, has this curtain-raiser on the election, and also an overnight dispatch from an international press conference held by front-runner William Lai of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Top line: Lai again ruled out any plan to declare independence if he’s elected, satisfying a key U.S. demand against upsetting the status quo.

Don’t look away: Meanwhile, Taiwan’s top diplomat in the United States, Alexander Tah-ray Yui, told POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy that the U.S. and Europe must not “look the other way” in the face of a potential Chinese invasion of the self-governing island. “The best defense, best help that you can do for Taiwan … is by actively, openly voicing your concerns that you will not accept Chinese aggression towards Taiwan,” he told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast.

BANGLADESH IN FOCUS: But Taiwan’s isn’t the first blockbuster election of 2024. Over in Bangladesh, after months of protests, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won a fourth consecutive term in power on Sunday — in an election marred by low voter turnout and an opposition boycott.

Quiet powerhouse: A country of around 170 million nestled between India to its west and China to its east, Bangladesh is an increasingly significant player in the region, having become something of a surprise economic success story in recent years. It has also piqued EU interest, recently scoring a bumper €400 million package. But, as Prime Minister Hasina told me in a recent interview, the country doesn’t want to take sides when it comes to the EU and China.

IOWA COUNTDOWN: And of course we’re less than a week away from the first major date in the U.S. election calendar, when voters in the Midwestern state of Iowa choose their candidate for the Republican nomination for president.

In the lead: Donald Trump, who actually lost to Ted Cruz in the state in 2016, is miles ahead in the polls, despite Nikki Haley’s recent surge. Many of the evangelical Christians who helped Cruz win the first-in-the-nation state eight years ago are now propelling Trump to victory (see this analysis from the New York Times).

IT worries? What IT worries? Iowa will still be the first state to choose its nominee for the Republican ticket, despite an IT meltdown that marred this exercise in democracy last time around. I witnessed chaos and confusion back in January 2020 when I covered the Democrats’ Iowa caucus at a small school in Des Moines — and technical mishaps and bad planning prevented a winner from emerging for days.

This time round, the Iowa Democrats caucus will have no bearing on the presidential race — but the Republicans are plowing ahead with a ballot. And once again a state that is not representative of the United States in terms of size or diversity is playing an outsized role in the U.S. presidential contest.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: MORE SOON! Davos Playbook will come to you each morning from the World Economic Forum in Davos, starting Monday January 15, through to Saturday January 20. Get in touch with any tips, goss or invites at slynch@politico.eu.

THANKS TO: Global Playbook Editor Zoya Sheftalovich.

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Watsonx.governance lets IBM clients manage their AI models over their entire lifecycle. This end-to-end, automated governance solution helps mitigate AI risks and improves compliance so businesses can utilize responsible AI to its full potential.

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