| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | BEAUCOUP BUCKS FOR BIDEN — “Pro-Biden group raised $208M as Dems brace for tough election year,” by Elena Schneider TOP-ED — “The DeSantis Team Ran the Worst Campaign in History,” by Curt Anderson and Alex Castellanos: “TIM PAWLENTY’s and SCOTT WALKER’s presidential campaigns can breathe a sigh of relief. The mantle of Worst Republican Presidential Campaign Ever has been lifted from their shoulders, stolen by the crew that ran Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ campaign into the dirt.”
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House Speaker Mike Johnson departs a meeting at the U.S. Capitol Jan. 18, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | WOULD DEMS SAVE JOHNSON FOR A BORDER DEAL? — With Senate negotiators expected to unveil their elusive bipartisan border deal any day now — and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER floating a vote on the White House’s $106 billion supplemental as soon as next week — the watercooler chatter on Capitol Hill has turned to one elephant-sized question: How the hell do you get this thing past the GOP-led House? Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is under tremendous pressure from former President DONALD TRUMP and other conservatives not to give President JOE BIDEN a win on border security — an issue that has plagued him in the polls — ahead of the 2024 election. And members like MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) are openly threatening to oust the Louisiana Republican if he allows a new tranche of Ukraine aid through the House. But given the political fallout from the migrant crisis, the stakes are so high that some Democrats are considering a once almost unthinkable idea to land the plane: trading a border deal for protecting Johnson’s gavel. You read that right. Several Democrats — including House Armed Services Committee Ranking Member ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), House Homeland Security Committee Ranker BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) and border Rep. VICENTE GONZALEZ (D-Texas) — told Playbook yesterday that if Johnson puts the Senate deal on the floor, some in their party would likely step in to make sure he holds on as speaker. “Our job is not to save Johnson, but I think it would be a mighty pity, if he did the right thing … for us not to support him,” Thompson said. “Up to this point, he’s been a fairly honest broker.” First off, let’s be clear that there are a million reasons why this idea isn’t a silver bullet and will probably never come to pass. For one, Johnson is very unlikely to ever go there. He’d utterly ruin his relationship with Trump — not to mention alienate large swaths of his own conference by relying on Democrats to keep his job. But the fact that some Democrats are even talking about the idea shows how desperate they are to find a solution. The party knows that time is running out to help Ukraine. And they’re getting pummeled on the border issue politically and need to do something to alleviate the situation. At first, it might seem like a major change in thinking from just a few months ago, when Democrats refused to lift a finger to help KEVIN McCARTHY keep his speakership. But more than half-dozen senior Democratic aides and lawmakers told us that there is a huge difference between the two men. For one, Democrats largely viewed McCarthy as a bad-faith actor who lied to them and was instrumental in resurrecting Trump after Jan. 6. Johnson, they note, hasn’t shown himself to be untrustworthy, even if he’s even more conservative than McCarthy. “People really underestimate the degree to which people really didn’t like Kevin McCarthy,” said Smith, who has personally implored Johnson to find a way to yes on a border deal. “The argument I've made to Mike is: You're going to make an enormous amount of progress on the border however this comes out — and you’ve still got your political issue because you think there's more that needs to be done.” Not all Democrats agree. Some told us that Johnson would likely be asked to pay some sort of political ransom in the form of a power-sharing agreement, more committee seats or other rules changes. But, realistically, Johnson wouldn’t need all Democrats— only a few to counter the Republicans who vote to oust him. (Note: For McCarthy, that was eight.) Democrats aren’t the only ones desperate to find a path through the House for the supplemental agreement. On the right, some Republicans truly want to see Ukraine aid pass, while others are eager to provide relief to constituents in overrun and exhausted border towns. Already, a host of Republicans are hitting the TV airways to counter the pressure from the right to hold the border matter for 2024. “I am looking for solutions now, not a year from now,” Texas border Rep. TONY GONZALES, a Republican, told us. Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) was even more blunt, arguing that delaying progress for political purposes is, essentially, gross. “My question to those Republicans … is: How many hundreds of thousands of illegals would you allow in the country just because it might help your chances of the election?” he said. “I ran for Congress literally on getting the border secure. So if I have a chance to do that, and I don't do that, I'm a traitor.” Yet there isn’t much these members can do if Johnson either (1) refuses to take up the Senate deal or (2) brings it up but attaches H.R. 2 provisions that will never pass the Senate, effectively killing it. There isn’t an easy way to make an end-run around the speaker. Lawmakers in both parties told us yesterday that there’s no hope for a discharge petition to force a vote on a Senate deal. Republicans are too skittish to go against Trump and their own leadership. And Democrats readily admit that dozens of progressives and Hispanic Caucus members won’t support the deal at all because of the changes to asylum and a process that did not include their input. “I think it's dead on arrival in the House,” Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.), a skeptic of the deal, told us. Some Republicans say it wouldn’t come to that, however. Crenshaw, for example, was adamant that even if Johnson is staying in touch with Trump and other border-deal opponents — and despite Greene’s threat of a motion to vacate — that the speaker wants to get to yes. “I know how Johnson actually thinks, and he’s of the same opinion I am here,” Crenshaw told us. Democrats? They’re not so sure. “He's got to decide if he’s going to do what’s right — or he’s going to do what’s politically expedient to just keep himself there for another — er, I don't know how long,” Vicente Gonzalez said. Related reads: “Senate braces for Trump to try to kill its border-Ukraine deal,” by Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano … “‘It’s time to act’: McConnell pushes Ukraine-border plan despite Johnson’s doubts,” by WaPo’s Paul Kane … “‘We’re sucking wind’: McHenry slams Johnson’s work as speaker,” by Eleanor Mueller Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: Every January, NRF convenes the most extraordinary retail industry leaders and partners in New York City for its annual conference and expo. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show will bring together 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries for three days of learning, collaboration and discovery. Retail leaders will connect with 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate visionary individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more. | | | TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest: “How a Judge in India Blocked Americans From Reading a Blockbuster Reuters Investigation” THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: JOE McQUAID — The New Hampshire primary is on Tuesday, but you could be forgiven for not knowing that it’s just a few days away. After all, there are no debates, some major candidates aren’t campaigning in the state, others are not on the ballot and still others who should be risking everything to win there instead seem to be playing it safe.
|  | But there is one bit of mystery left in the race: On Sunday, the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s influential 161-year old conservative paper, will issue its endorsement. Joe McQuaid was the longtime publisher of the Union Leader, and has lived and breathed New Hampshire politics ever since he was a teenager and was pressured by his social studies teacher to back LYNDON JOHNSON instead of the candidate who won his heart, BARRY GOLDWATER. It may have been the last time anyone told him what to think. Over the decades, McQuaid became well known for blunt editorials that punched candidates in the face. GEORGE W. BUSH was “an empty suit.” MITT ROMNEY was “plastic” and “desperate.” RON PAUL was from “the island of misfit toys.” Trump was “a crude blowhard with no clear political philosophy and no deeper understanding of the important and serious role of President of the United States than one of the goons he lets rough up protesters in his crowds.” In 2020, after his son Brendan took over as publisher, the Union Leader endorsed Biden. Joe McQuaid is the ideal person to hear from if you want to understand the history of the state’s primary, especially on the Republican side. On the latest episode of Playbook Deep Dive, he joins Ryan to talk about whether or not Haley can win on Tuesday, if she’ll get the Union Leader’s endorsement, how things went so far south between him and Trump and whether or not New Hampshire’s primacy in American politics has come to an end. Listen to the show on Apple Podcasts or on Spotify
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   Every day, NRF stands up for the people, policies and ideas that help retail succeed. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. 3 things to watch …
- It’s an impromptu snow day for the House, but Ways and Means members are sticking around to mark up the bipartisan, bicameral tax legislation that would extend nearly $78 billion worth of incentives. Expect Democrats to try and sweeten the $35 billion Child Tax Credit expansion that Chairman JASON SMITH (R-Mo.) negotiated with Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.). And watch the final vote: A big number could build momentum to get this sucker through the House before tax season starts.
- Both the House and Senate managed to pass a six-week CR before leaving town yesterday, but appropriators still have lots of work to ready fiscal 2024 spending bills for floor action — starting with making a deal on allocations for the 12 subcommittees. The so-called “302(b)” numbers are still being hashed out between Senate Approps Chair PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.) and House Chair KAY GRANGER (R-Texas), and time’s a-wastin’. More from Inside Congress
- Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN, freshly out of the hospital, got an unwelcome Valentine from House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) yesterday: an invitation to testify at a Feb. 14 hearing about the circumstances and secrecy surrounding his hospitalization. We’ll see if Austin quickly accepts or waits for an invite from the Democratic Senate.
At the White House Biden will welcome bipartisan mayors attending the U.S. Conference of Mayors Winter Meeting to the White House this afternoon. In the evening, Biden will travel to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks to reporters following a town hall campaign event, Tuesday, Dec. 12. | Robert F. Bukaty/AP | HALEY’S COMET — Just days out from the New Hampshire primary, NIKKI HALEY is ramping up her attacks against DONALD TRUMP, Natalie Allison reports from Hollis, New Hampshire. “Over and over as she campaigned here this week, Haley insulted her former boss in ways she had restrained herself from doing for much of the past year. … In the last two days alone, Trump’s former ambassador has gone after him at almost a Trump-like pace, posting clips of herself taunting him with calls to debate — ‘He can’t hide forever’ — and making fun of him for suggesting his own campaign’s polling data was wrong.” Haley also hit back yesterday against criticism that she doesn’t communicate with voters at events after previously refusing to take questions from attendees, NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa and Neil Vigdor report. Related reads: “Haley: Trump’s going birther because he’s ‘threatened’ and ‘insecure’,” by Alec Snyder … “Trump plays defense after Haley attacks his age,” by WaPo’s Mariana Alfaro More top reads:
- Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) says he has now put $5 million of his own money into his longshot presidential bid, our colleague Lisa Kashinsky reports, after initially loaning his campaign $2 million. He declined in a brief interview with Lisa yesterday to put a cap on how much of his personal wealth he is willing to pour into his campaign. "I don't know, I don't want to set a number," Phillips said, adding that his fundraising is "ramping up." Phillips also was endorsed by ANDREW YANG yesterday in New Hampshire.
- A new super PAC associated with billionaire hedge fund investor BILL ACKMAN and OpenAI CEO SAM ALTMAN is endorsing Phillips’ presidential campaign, WaPo’s Meryl Kornfield and Elizabeth Dwoskin report: “This week, [the PAC, We Deserve Better] launched Dean.Bot after weighing the implications of using a sophisticated AI tool that can chat like a real person — one of the first known uses of artificial intelligence in a political campaign. … The PAC has already raised $4 million to target New Hampshire voters with short confessional-style videos — targeted social media ads featuring Phillips and supporters making his case.”
CONGRESS HUNTER GATHERING — After months of defiance, HUNTER BIDEN agreed yesterday to appear at a closed-door deposition before members of the House Oversight Committee on Feb. 28, AP’s Farnoush Amiri reports. “Republicans had been set to advance a contempt resolution against him to the House floor this week but called it off Tuesday to give the attorneys additional time to negotiate.” SCARY STUFF — “Capitol Police investigated more than 8,000 threats against lawmakers last year,” by NBC News’ Zoë Richards: “Last year’s tally marked an increase from a figure released for 2022, but it's below the 9,625 cases the agency investigated in 2021 when the Jan. 6 riot occurred. TRUMP CARDS
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Last night, Trump’s legal team outlined to the Supreme Court the reasons why the former president should be included on 2024 ballots. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | BALLOT BATTLE — In a 59-page brief released yesterday, Trump’s legal team outlined to the Supreme Court the reasons why the former president should be included on 2024 ballots, urging the justices to “put a swift and decisive end” to the state rulings that have found him ineligible to stand for election — which, they argue, “threaten to disenfranchise tens of millions of Americans” and “promise to unleash chaos and bedlam” if allowed to proceed, write Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney. More top reads:
THE WHITE HOUSE GROWING PAINS — “Biden's blue-collar pitch: Factories now, jobs later,” by Adam Cancryn: While the White House keeps hyping the prospect of an impending economic boom, “those new factory projects remain in their early stages — and have yet to generate an anticipated wave of manufacturing jobs … The lull has threatened to complicate the White House’s depiction of an economy that's entered a manufacturing renaissance, feeding fears that Biden is losing ground among voters in key battleground states — even as he advances policies aimed squarely at boosting their communities in the long run.”
| | | | A message from the National Retail Federation:   We are retail’s greatest advocates, uniting an industry of leaders and boundary breakers around complex issues and bold opportunities. Learn more. | | | MORE POLITICS McCARTHY’S REVENGE TOUR — “Nancy Mace’s ex-chief of staff weighs a primary challenge against her,” by Jacqueline Alemany: Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy has “privately encouraged [DAN] HANLON to explore a primary challenge [against NANCY MACE], according to people familiar with the discussions.” NO LABELS DISABLED BY LIBERAL ROUNDTABLE? — The centrist political group No Labels has asked the DOJ to investigate a number of left-leaning organizations which, they allege, have together mounted an “unlawful conspiracy to … shut down the organization’s effort to secure ballot access for the 2024 presidential election.” More from WaPo’s Michael Scherer Related read: “No Labels: We’d consider Haley on our ticket. Haley: No thanks,” by Daniel Lippman AMERICA AND THE WORLD
|  The U.S.-owned ship Genco Picardy came under attack Wednesday from a bomb-carrying drone launched by Yemen's Houthi rebels in the Gulf of Aden. | Indian Navy via AP | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The U.S. military conducted its fifth strike against Houthi rebels along the Red Sea yesterday, targeting two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were prepared to launch, AP’s Zeke Miller, Aamer Madhani and Tara Copp report: “Biden said the U.S. would continue the strikes, even though so far they have not stopped the Houthis from continuing to harass commercial and military vessels.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY DEEP IN THE HEART — A scathing new report from the Justice Department reveals “cascading failures of leadership, decision-making, tactics, policy and training” by law enforcement responding to the 2022 mass shooting that killed 19 children and two teachers at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, Texas, Lomi Kriel, Alejandro Serrano and Lexi Churchill report for the Texas Tribune. AG MERRICK GARLAND: “Had law enforcement agencies followed generally accepted practices in an active shooter situation and gone right after the shooter to stop him, lives would have been saved and people would have survived.” JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH FOR THE RECORD — “DOJ has a near-perfect record in Jan. 6 cases. But it’s starting to stumble,” by Kyle and Josh: “The new setbacks have already resulted in two Jan. 6 defendants being released, at least temporarily, from prison terms, and several others having their cases indefinitely delayed. … At the top of the list is the Supreme Court’s announcement last month that it will review the scope of one of the primary felony charges brought against Jan. 6 defendants: obstruction of an official proceeding.” SUNDAY SO FAR … NBC “Meet the Press”: New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu … Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) … Steve Kornacki … Chuck Todd. Panel: Dasha Burns, Lanhee Chen, Jonathan Martin and Jen Psaki. CBS “Face the Nation”: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley … Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer … Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). Panel: Brit Hume, Bret Baier, Harold Ford Jr. and Martha MacCallum. ABC “This Week”: Gov. Doug Burgum (R-N.D.). Panel: Former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-Md.), Donna Brazile, Rachael Bade and Toluse Olorunnipa. CNN “State of the Union”: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Panel: Jeff Zeleny, Leigh Ann Caldwell and Zolan Kanno-Youngs. … New Hampshire Panel: Josh Rogers and Jack Heath.
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Malia Obama’s short film is being screened at Sundance. Chris Stirewalt will host a new Sunday show for NewsNation. Gretchen Whitmer denied the NY Post’s report that she signed a seven-figure book deal. Chuck Grassley was released from the hospital following an infection. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at the NewDEAL Mayors’ reception at political consultant and NewDEAL co-founder Helen Milby’s D.C. home: Reps. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) and Gabe Amo (D-R.I.), St. Louis, Mo. Mayor Tishaura Jones; Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego; Grand Rapids, Mich. Mayor Rosalynn Bliss; Scranton, Penn. Mayor Paige Cognetti; Everett, Wash. Mayor Cassie Franklin; Jersey City, N.J. Mayor Steve Fulop; Waterloo, Iowa Mayor Quentin Hart; Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson; Newport News, Va. Mayor Phillip Jones; Albuquerque, N.M. Mayor Tim Keller; San Jose, Calif. Mayor Matt Mahan; New Bedford, Mass. Mayor Jon Mitchell; San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg; Rochester, Minn. Mayor Kim Norton; Lansing, Mich. Mayor Andy Schor; Scranton, Penn. Mayor Paige Cognetti; Stamford, Conn. Mayor Caroline Simmons; Elk Grove, Calif. Mayor Bobbie Singh-Allen; Providence, R.I. Mayor Brett Smiley; Richmond, Va. Mayor Levar Stoney; Burlington, Vt. Mayor Miro Weinberger and Birmingham, Ala. Mayor Randall Woodfin. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg … Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker … Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) … Del. Gregorio Kilili Camacho Sablan (I-Northern Mariana Islands) … Jon Karl … UAE Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba … DOD’s Sarah Farnsworth CNN’s John Avlon … Evan McMorris-Santoro … Dan Holler of Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) office … CAP’s Anne Dechter … WaPo’s Drew Harwell … Substack’s Catherine Valentine … POLITICO’s Dianne Manian … Bloomberg’s Tyler Kendall … Megan Shannon … Philip Reeker … Jason Waskey of Civic Nation and Blue Crab Strategies … National Women’s Law Center’s Melissa Boteach … Brennan Hart … Meta’s Caitlin Rush … Mike Goodman of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Shelley Fidler … Brooke Ericson Donilon … Vice’s Subrata De … Jerry Howe of Leidos … Ann Compton … Marc Schloss … Adrienne Jacobs … Lori Wallach of the American Economic Liberties Project … Puru Trivedi … Phil Verveer Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook included outdated information about the House schedule.
| | A message from the National Retail Federation: For more than a century, NRF has served as the leading voice for retail and is the only organization able to bring the industry together. At NRF’s annual conference and expo, retailers from all over the world hear from the biggest changemakers, experience the latest innovations and make the relationships that matter most. NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show is bigger and better than ever with 40,000 people from 6,200 brands and 100 countries who will have access to 1,000 exhibitors highlighting the latest innovative solutions for retailers and 450 speakers discussing emerging trends, challenges and opportunities facing the industry. Retail leaders will connect with more than 1,100 students at the NRF Foundation Student Program, and the industry will celebrate The Visionary 2024 and individuals shaping retail’s future at the NRF Foundation Honors. Learn more about NRF 2024: Retail’s Big Show. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
