The other big election next week

Jan 12, 2024

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Good morning and happy Friday.

Throughout the weekend, the national political world will be watching Monday’s Iowa caucuses. But there’s a special election coming in Central Florida on Tuesday that the state's Democrats and Republicans are laser-focused on.

The contest is for state House District 35, which is in both Orange and Osceola Counties. The seat is open because Gov. Ron DeSantis tapped the former lawmaker, GOP Rep. Fred Hawkins, to be president of South Florida State College.

Democrats see flipping this seat as a first step in their goal to undo the Republican supermajority in the lower chamber, per a memo from the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee viewed by Playbook. President Joe Biden won the district in 2020.

Their candidate is veteran Tom Keen, a manager at Collins Aerospace. Democrats’ polling shows the most “potent” messages heading into the election are abortion rights and Florida’s property insurance crisis — and the political committee said in its memo that it was “prepared to spend upwards of seven figures” in the race.

Republicans nominated Erika Booth, a conservative member of the Osceola County School Board. She raised $305,000 for the race, thanks in large part to contributions GOP organizations and lawmakers, per Silas Morgan of Fresh Take Florida. The total far exceeds Keen’s $115,386 raised.

Erin Huntley, Orange County GOP chair, told Playbook that during door knocking leading up to the race, voters told her their top concerns were inflation, border security and parental involvement in schools. When it comes to abortion, she said, it’s not as top of mind for Republican voters but more for Independents.

“They are definitely working really hard,” she said of Democrats. “They are definitely fighting for it.”

By Thursday afternoon, early voting results showed Democrats cast 43 percent of ballots compared to 40 percent from registered Republicans, per Fresh Take Florida.

Samuel Vilchez Santiago, chair for Orange County Democrats, said voters have also been asking grassroots supporters about the governor’s fight with Walt Disney World and how the company pulled out of a $1 billion office space that was slated to add 2,000 jobs in Florida.

“Some residents are concerned about the precedent it sets for governmental intervention in private businesses,” Keen said. “Many folks have told me they are tired of the culture wars that waste taxpayer money.”

But Booth said voters never mention the Disney fight to her. Property insurance problems have resonated, however. Booth told Playbook she was “campaigning on a platform of holding big insurance companies accountable until they lower premiums and stop denying rightful claims.”

Whoever wins on Tuesday victor will still have to compete again in November 2024 — when it looks like Donald Trump and Biden will lead the top of the ticket and probably shake up the race. In 2022, a DeSantis blowout helped carry Hawkins to a 10-point victory.

— WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis has events in Iowa today but there’s a strong chance the blizzard will get in the way.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com

Programming Note: We’ll be off this Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day but will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2024.

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

Florida Senate President Kathleen Passidomo is seen in the Senate chamber at the Florida State Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla., Jan. 11, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Florida Senate President Kathleen Passidomo is seen in the Senate chamber at the Florida State Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla., Jan. 11, 2024. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images) | AP

PRIORITY — Florida Senate in position to pass sweeping health care bill, reports News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders. “The Senate Fiscal Policy Committee on Thursday unanimously passed two bills that make up the plan, setting the stage for the full Senate to vote as early as next week. Senate President Kathleen Passidomo, R-Naples, has made the issue one of her top priorities. Passidomo and other supporters say parts of the plan will work together to help increase access to health care in the state. As an example, one of the bills (SB 7016) would take steps, including providing money, to expand medical residency programs to try to keep more new doctors in Florida.”

MAKING ADJUSTMENTS — Florida lawmakers eye more school choice expansions amid surging enrollment, reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. In a new bill introduced Thursday, House Republicans are proposing several tweaks to last year’s landmark universal school choice bill that widely opened access to vouchers, such as installing guardrails around what parents can buy with the scholarships and creating new timelines and deadlines to get parents and students their money faster.

At the same time, the legislation aims to open the door for thousands of additional special needs students to access scholarships, building on a widely popular program that continues to exceed enrollment limits.

SOCIAL SCRUTINY — Florida Republicans target social media access for children, reports POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury. Republicans in the Florida House introduced two key pieces of the chamber’s 2024 conservative agenda on Thursday intending to safeguard children in the state by restricting their access to social media and pornography websites.

The two proposals — setting an age limit of 16 for creating any social media account and requiring adult websites to block access to anyone under 18 years old — would put Florida in league with several other states that have pursued similar measures.

— “Florida school book bans hit dictionaries,” reports Axios’ Shauneen Miranda

$2 BILLION PRICE TAG— “Legislative panel says 'yes' to boosting state pensions for retired workers,” reports James Call of USA TODAY Network – Florida. “A Florida House panel Thursday unanimously OK'd a proposal to boost the pensions of roughly a million state workers and retirees with an annual cost-of-living increase of 3 percent.”

Florida wetlands.

Proposed legislation moving through the Florida Senate could threaten the states ability to continue issuing federal wetlands permits, environmentalists wrote in a Jan. 8 letter to DEP Secretary Shawn Hamilton. | Bruce Ritchie/POLITICO

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY — Environmental groups this week warned state officials that they risk losing federal wetlands permitting authority because of "loser pays" lawsuit legislation currently moving through the Florida Senate, reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie.

The groups told Florida Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Shawn Hamilton in a Jan. 8 letter that federal law requires opportunities for judicial review and public participation in federal wetlands permits issued by the state.

— “Here are the environmental bills to watch as Florida’s legislative session starts,” reports the Tampa Bay Times’ Max Chesnes, Michaela Mulligan and Jack Prator.

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PENINSULA AND BEYOND

ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT — “Ousted State Attorney Andrew Warren, who won appeal, wants case sped up,” reports the Tampa Bay Times’ Sue Carlton and Dan Sullivan. “An appeals court gave Andrew Warren another chance this week to argue that he should be reinstated as Hillsborough County’s state attorney, 17 months after DeSantis suspended him from the elected position.”

— “Dollar General store expected to reopen Friday nearly 5 months after racist attack,” reports News4JAX’s Marilyn Parker

CAMPAIGN MODE

ANOTHER COUNTY GOP FOR TRUMP — St. Johns County Republicans decided by voice vote last night to formally endorse Trump as the GOP nominee for president, confirmed Blake Paterson, chair of the group.

St. Johns, together with Volusia County, made up the congressional district DeSantis represented when he served three terms in the U.S. House. Volusia conducted a straw poll recently that Trump also won.

CLOSING DAYS — “Haley tops DeSantis for the first time in Iowa poll,” reports the Washington Post’s Scott Clement. “The Suffolk University poll of 500 likely caucus-goers finds 54 percent saying Trump is their first choice, followed by Haley at 20 percent, DeSantis at 13 percent and Vivek Ramaswamy at 6 percent.”

DESANTIS ALLIES — “Iowa governor says DeSantis can still pull off caucus win,” reports Bloomberg. “‘It's a different ball game’ if Trump can't break 50 percent, said Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.”

A campaign worker posts signs in a snow bank before a campaign event for Nikki Haley at Mickey's Irish Pub in Waukee, Iowa.

A campaign worker posts signs in a snow bank before a campaign event for Nikki Haley at Mickey's Irish Pub in Waukee, Iowa on Tuesday. | Carolyn Kaster/AP

HELPING DESANTIS? — This Iowa Caucus could be the coldest ever. Some campaigns may be better prepared than others, reports Time’s Mini Racker. “This year’s caucus day is shaping up to be the coldest ever, according to the Des Moines Register. Temperatures are expected to fall as much as 15 degrees below zero in some areas. Much of Iowa is under a blizzard warning on Friday, and the storm could deposit up to ten inches of snow in some areas.

“The prospect of dangerously cold weather is adding another element of uncertainty into a caucus night in which just about everyone expects former President Donald Trump to come out on top. But as the forecast for Monday draws predictions of icy roads and dead car batteries, such obstacles could discourage all but the most committed voters from making the trek to their caucus sites.”

OFT-MENTIONED WEBSITE — “Haley created a site to fact-check DeSantis. It could use more context,” reports The New York Times’ Angelo Fichera. “There are key differences between Ms. Haley’s effort and an independent fact-checking operation. The website, for example, doesn’t directly quote DeSantis or cite the specific comments being rebutted. It also deems a “lie” some statements that don’t actually contain checkable facts.”

OFF CAMERA — “Did Ron DeSantis shake his wife’s hand?” asks The New York Times’ Rebecca Davis O’Brien. “During the second commercial break DeSantis … strode to the edge of the stage and reached down to shake hands with Gov. Kim Reynolds, Republican of Iowa, and her husband. Then, with a businesslike rigor, he grasped the outstretched palm of Casey DeSantis, Florida’s first lady.”

TRAIL DISRUPTION — Security guard tackles protester during DeSantis Iowa stop, reports POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard. “This is what is wrong with the college system right now,” DeSantis quipped as security escorted one of the protesters out of the crowded venue.

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

BACK IN FLORIDA — “'Mega MAGA' Trumpettes gala for Trump will have Marjorie Taylor Greene, Mike Flynn as headliners,” reports the Palm Beach Post’s Antonio Fins. “The theme is a ‘golden evening’ but the message will be ‘mega MAGA.’’”

BIRTHDAYS: Deputy Chief Financial Officer Frank Collins … Former state Rep. Charlie Stone … Barbara Petersen, executive director at Florida Center for Government Accountability … Victoria Langley Heller, senior director communications and board relations at CareerSource Florida … (Saturday) Liana Guerra of Rep. Darren Soto’s office ... Cathleen Conley, manager of corporate communications at A. Duda & Sons Inc. ... Phillip Perry of On the Line Strategy … (Sunday) Former Florida House Speaker Chris Sprowls.

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