| | | | |  | | By Catherine Kim | | | |  A man wears small Taiwan national flags on his hat during an election campaign rally for one of Taiwan's major political parties, Kuomintang, in Keelung on Jan. 4, 2024. | I-Hwa Cheng/AFP via Getty Images | TAIWAN TUMULT — America’s laser-focused gaze on the Iowa caucuses is, for the moment, diverting attention from another contest with considerably bigger geopolitical implications — Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan. The implications of Taiwan’s election are huge and the U.S. is likely to be in a pickle no matter who wins. The key issue boils down to Taiwan’s tumultuous relationship with China. From the U.S. perspective, there is no ideal outcome since one candidate will draw the ire of China and could pull the U.S. into a quagmire in the region, while another would hew closer to the Chinese party line than U.S. leaders want. The main event is between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposing Kuomintang (KMT) party (a third candidate from the Taiwan People’s Party polls far behind the two). Current Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te of the DPP is narrowly ahead in the polls. His party supports Taiwanese sovereignty and identity — even at the cost of souring cross-strait relations — and advocates expanded relationships with democracies like the U.S. and other European countries. Lai’s running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s former U.S. envoy, is seen as a nod to that ambition. His opponent, Hou Yu-ih of the KMT party, favors a friendlier relationship with China. A victory by either party would be historic in its own right: If Lai wins, it would mark the first time a pro-independence party has won three consecutive terms since Taiwan held its first democratic presidential election in 1996. If Hou wins, it would be the first time in a decade that a Beijing-friendly president took office. The Chinese government looms large in the election, pressuring Taiwanese voters both economically and militarily to vote against the ruling party, DPP, which it sees as defiant separatists. From major tariffs to an increased number of planes circling the island, China has ramped up these intimidation tactics in the past few weeks. Still, DPP officials are encouraging Taiwanese voters to remain steadfast, warning that China is trying“to take advantage of people’s fear, to create internal conflict and harm Taiwan democracy.” Meanwhile, KMT has used the tensions to highlight the election as a choice between war and peace, echoing rhetoric coming from the mainland. It’s widely expected that China will ratchet up its military pressure if Lai comes out victorious, a move that some fear could lead to a major invasion, which has already been foreshadowed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. And any increased military activity or intimidation would likely threaten the delicate relationship President Joe Biden and Xi re-established in November, over a year after Nancy Pelosi and five other congressmembers enraged Beijing by visiting Taiwan. Despite a decades-long commitment to “strategic ambiguity,” the U.S. policy of being deliberately ambiguous on how it would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Biden has been vocal about his support for the island. Since 2021, he’s pledged U.S. military support to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion — statements that his aides have had to walk back on each time. The likelihood of this worst-case scenario happening swells if Lai is elected and threatens the goodwill the U.S. and China have attempted to build. If Hou wins, however, the U.S. remains in a predicament. To appease China, Hou’s government might shy away from cooperating with the U.S., despite its long history of partnership. That would create a serious problem for the U.S.: Not only is Taiwan a strategically important island for defense purposes in the Indo-Pacific, it is also a crucial trade partner, especially in the semiconductor industry. There’s also a general sense of uneasiness surrounding the prospect of a KMT administration, which the Biden administration is unfamiliar with in comparison to the friendly DDP government. “Washington always prefers to deal with what they know rather than what they get, so I think they will find a Hou Yu-ih administration a bit of a challenge,” said Douglas Paal, the former American Institute in Taiwan director, told POLITICO. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at ckim@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @ck_525.
| | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: Congress: Support the highest possible increases for cancer research funding at the National Institutes of Health and National Cancer Institute to make time. Literally. More than 1.9 million people were diagnosed with cancer in 2023 alone. But by investing in the research of today, you’re helping prevent, detect, and treat many of the cancers of tomorrow, creating countless moments for patients and their loved ones in the process. Fight Cancer. Make Time. | | | | | — GOP hardliners push Johnson to abandon funding deal with Democrats: Conservative hardliners are actively trying to renegotiate Speaker Mike Johnson’s bipartisan spending deal — ratcheting up the odds of a partial government shutdown next week. Johnson huddled with House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) and roughly a dozen other members of his right flank today. Those hardliners emerged from the meeting optimistic that they’ll convince Johnson to walk away from the agreement he announced with other congressional leaders to fund the government for this fiscal year. “It’s not going to be the current deal,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told reporters after leaving the meeting. — FAA launches probe into Boeing 737 MAX 9 door plugs: The Federal Aviation Administration is investigating whether the panel doors on Boeing’s 737 MAX 9 jets, such as the one that flew off in the middle of an Alaska Airlines flight last week, match with approved design and manufacturing requirements. In a statement today, the FAA said its investigation will determine if Boeing failed to ensure that the “plug doors” installed on the 737 MAX 9 planes, which cover over an unused exit door, were safe and appropriate to use and whether they complied with FAA-approved design standards. — Trump lashes out at judge in closing arguments of civil fraud trial: Donald Trump accused the judge in his civil fraud trial of having his “own agenda,” berating the judge to his face in brief courtroom remarks that defied the judge’s attempts to control Trump’s rhetoric. For about five minutes today, Trump spoke while seated at the defense table as Justice Arthur Engoron, brow furrowed, watched him from the bench. “This is a fraud on me,” Trump told Engoron. “What’s happened here, sir, is a fraud on me.”
| | | | GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | HOGAN BOLTS NO LABELS — Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan resigned last month from his position at third-party leadership movement No Labels, according to a letter POLITICO received today. Hogan’s co-chair resignation, made official in the letter to Nancy Jacobson, the organization’s president and CEO, went into effect at the end of 2023, stoking speculation that the moderate Republican could mount a potential presidential run on the group’s ballot. ‘PERFECT STORM’ — Elections and disinformation are going hand in hand in 2024, the New York Times reports. As AI developments and foreign influence campaigns supercharge disinformation — all while social media platforms scale back safeguards — roughly half of the world’s population will also be voting in an election this year. And all that could create the “perfect storm of disinformation,” as one researcher put it. DEAD MAN’S VOTE — Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s nomination papers in Rhode Island were signed by dead people from the state, the Boston Globe reports. Boards of canvassers from Rhode Island towns found “several deceased voters” and reported unusual numbers of signatures on his nomination papers. The Ramaswamy campaign said the fraudulent signatures came from one man at a vendor the campaign hired. That person has since been fired.
| | | | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:   | | | | | | | 
Israeli sympathizers take part in a demonstration during a hearing at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on a genocide complaint by South Africa against Israel today. | Robin Utrecht/ANP/AFP via Getty Images | DRAMA AT THE HAGUE — Israel’s foreign ministry accused South Africa of being “the legal arm” of the Palestinian militant group Hamas today, after Pretoria accused it of genocide at the U.N.’s top court in The Hague, reports POLITICO EU. “Today we witnessed one of the greatest shows of hypocrisy in history, compounded by a series of false and baseless claims,” said Lior Haiat, spokesman for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a press release. Israel issued the statement as the International Court of Justice opened hearings on a case brought by South Africa against Israel. “South Africa seeks to allow Hamas to return to commit the war crimes, crimes against humanity and sexual crimes they committed repeatedly on October 7, as its leaders have stated,” Haiat said. “Israel will continue to protect its citizens in accordance with international law, while distinguishing between Hamas terrorists and the civilian population.” Israel’s retaliatory ground assault, airstrikes and siege in the Gaza Strip have so far killed more than 20,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health.
| | | | POLITICO AT CES® 2024: We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show. | | | | | | | | | | 0.3 percent The amount that inflation rose from November to December, according to today’s report from the Labor Department. In addition, inflation rose 3.4 percent from 12 months earlier. Those gains exceeded the previous 0.1 percent monthly rise and the 3.1 percent annual inflation in November. | | | | DOWN TO A SCIENCE — Studying misinformation as a science took off after U.S. elections in 2016, when researchers argued that misleading content across social media helped former President Donald Trump secure victory. In the years since, the field has only grown. But according to the academic philosopher Dan Williams, studying misleading information as a science leads to a host of other problems that obscure the effects of misinformation. Williams writes for his blog Conspicuous Cognition about how researchers have redefined misinformation and why their expanded definitions are rife with issues.
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On this date in 1995: House Speaker Newt Gingrich accompanied by other House members, meets reporters on Capitol Hill after they signed a “subcontract with America” in which they pledge to support a Constitutional amendment limiting the terms of federal lawmakers. | Joe Marquette/AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
| | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: Cancer takes away many things, but the most devastating is time. And while policies and federal research investment have helped avert 3.8 million cancer deaths since 1991, the fight against the country’s second most common cause of death is far from over. With over 609,000 deaths and 1.9 million diagnoses last year, there is still work to do in the fight against cancer. And that is where you come in.
When Congress prioritizes ending cancer as we know it, you literally make time for patients, loved ones, caregivers, and everybody else affected by 200 diseases known as cancer. By investing in the research of today, you’re helping prevent, detect, and treat many of the cancers of tomorrow, creating countless moments for cancer patients and their loved ones in the process.
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