NOT CALLING ALL THE SHOTS: Intelligence officials have calculated that Tehran doesn’t have full control over its proxy groups in the Middle East, including those responsible for attacking and killing U.S. troops in recent weeks, two U.S. officials familiar with the matter told our own ERIN BANCO. The Quds Force — an elite branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp — is responsible for sending weapons and military advisers as well as intelligence to support militias in Iraq and Syria as well as the Houthis in Yemen. The groups have varying ambitions and agendas, which sometimes overlap, but Tehran does not appear to have complete authority over their operational decision-making, the officials said. While the disclosure means it may be particularly hard to predict what actions these groups will take, it also could lower the chance of the U.S. getting pulled into a direct confrontation with Iran. Any indication that Tehran was directly involved in ordering or overseeing the attacks would make U.S. retaliation against Iran more likely. AUSTIN SAYS SORRY: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN apologized for the way he handled his prostate cancer diagnosis and treatment, Matt and LARA SELIGMAN report. “We did not handle this right. I did not handle this right,” Austin told reporters today at the Pentagon. Top members of the national security team, including Biden, were not informed by Austin’s staff that he was in the hospital until Jan. 4, three days after he was admitted. It took several more days before they found out that he had been diagnosed and was being treated for cancer. “I should have told the president about my cancer diagnosis. I should have also told my team and the American public, and I take full responsibility,” Austin said, adding that he has apologized to Biden personally. Senate Armed Services Chair JACK REED (D-R.I.) agreed that the matter was handled poorly and said he’s awaiting DOD’s review on what went wrong: "What we're trying to do … is see if there are any gaps in our command and control system. And if there were, we have to fix them, and the second thing is who was responsible,” he told our own JOE GOULD. Reed said he expects Austin to face questions from his committee when the secretary appears for a posture hearing in April. "This issue is not going to evaporate before then," he said. APPROVED STRIKES: Plans for U.S. strikes on Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria have been approved, CBS News reports. The attacks will happen over a number of days and some will target “Iranian personnel and facilities.” “Weather will be a major factor in the timing of the strikes,” per the report, as better visibility in preferable conditions make it easier for the U.S. to avoid civilian casualties. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards has pulled its senior military officers out of Syria due to deadly Israeli airstrikes, and is now relying more on allied Shi'ite militia in Syria to maintain its influence there, five people familiar with the matter told Reuters. Iran was “driven partly by its aversion to being sucked directly into a conflict bubbling” in the Middle East, Reuters writes. Tehran has no intention of fully leaving Syria, they added. One of the people described it as a “downsizing of the presence,” Reuters writes, saying that senior commanders had left the country along with dozens of mid-ranking officers. The Guards are expected to manage operations in Syria remotely with the help of Hezbollah, three people told Reuters. HOUTHI HIT: The U.S. struck a drone station belonging to the Houthis in Yemen today in its ongoing efforts to weaken the Iran-backed militants’ capabilities to strike ships in the Red Sea. U.S. forces hit the Houthi drone ground control station, as well as several drones, after determining they posed an “imminent threat” to ships in the region, U.S. Central Command said in a statement. Meanwhile, Yemeni Foreign Minister AHMED AWAD BIN MUBARAK urged the European Union to do more to combat the militant group, calling for “mid and long-term solutions” because striking them “won’t do enough.” "The EU has the wrong approach. They need to exercise more pressure on the Houthis such as by designating them as a terrorist group,” the foreign minister told reporters, per Reuters’ JULIA PAYNE. AID TO UKRAINE: European Union leaders today reached a deal to provide $54 billion in aid to Ukraine, agreeing unanimously after leaders persuaded Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to drop his veto, our own GREGORIO SORGI, BARBARA MOENS and ELISA BRAUN report. “This locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine,” European Council President CHARLES MICHEL wrote on X. The European leaders managed to win over Orbán with three additions to the draft proposal, diplomats told our colleagues. There will be an annual report by the European Commission on the implementation of the aid package, there will be a debate at leaders' level on its implementation and, if it is needed, in two years the European Council will ask the Commission to propose a review of the new budget. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe and @JGedeon1.
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