| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg | |  French President Emmanuel Macron said there was no consensus among EU-member leaders to actively fight on Ukraine’s behalf, but added the idea wasn’t wholly “ruled out.” | Thibault Camus/AP | With help from Maggie Miller, Daniel Lippman, Lee Hudson and Lara Seligman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The Biden administration isn’t keen on French President EMMANUEL MACRON’s remark that Western troops could at some point directly defend Ukraine. “President [JOE] BIDEN has been clear that the U.S. will not send troops to fight in Ukraine,” said National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON. Getting roughly $60 billion in military aid for Kyiv passed by Congress, she continued, is “the path to victory.” Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER, the top Pentagon spokesperson, added later that “we have no plans to send U.S. service members to fight in Ukraine.” NSC spokesperson JOHN KIRBY drilled that point home: “There’s not going to be U.S. troops on the ground in Ukraine,” he said while speaking with reporters today. The U.S. isn’t alone in shouting down the idea. The far-left and far-right parties in France denounced it. German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ said today it wouldn’t happen: “There will be no ground troops, no soldiers on Ukrainian soil sent there by European countries or NATO states.” Russia expectedly warned of all-out war with the West if Macron’s proposal came true. “We need to talk not about the likelihood, but about the inevitability,” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said today. “That’s how we evaluate it.” Importantly, Macron said there was no consensus among EU-member leaders to actively fight on Ukraine’s behalf, but added the idea wasn’t wholly “ruled out.” He refused to disclose which Western leaders gathered in Paris on Monday to bolster support for Ukraine were open to the idea, stating he preferred to maintain some “strategic ambiguity.” But France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs STÉPHANE SÉJOURNÉ added some more clarity about his administration’s thinking. “We must consider new actions to support Ukraine. These must respond to very specific needs, I am thinking in particular of mine clearance, cyberdefense, the production of weapons on site, on Ukrainian territory,” he said. “Some of [those] actions could require a presence on Ukrainian territory, without crossing the threshold of fighting. Nothing should be ruled out.” Slovak Prime Minister ROBERT FICO, who is more sympathetic to Russia’s cause, brought all this out into the open before the meeting. “A number of NATO and EU member states are considering sending troops to Ukraine on a bilateral basis,” he said. As of this moment, the chance of any Western country sending their troops to Ukraine isn’t zero, but it’s darn close. Even when Russia was just contemplating an invasion, Biden gave clear guidance to his team as they prepared to support Kyiv. A direct fight between the West and Russia had to be avoided at all costs, Biden said to senior aides. “We don’t want World War III.” That has impacted not only America’s Ukraine policy, but also the approach of EU and NATO countries toward Kyiv: Military and economic assistance are well within bounds, but the war is Ukraine’s to fight. No foreign troops, from the U.S. or anywhere else, are to deploy to Ukraine and help the Ukrainians kill Russians. France could choose to send troops without American backing, but that’s an unlikely prospect as allies want to present a united front. That said, the U.S. is offering more than just material support. The New York Times on Monday reported how the CIA financed and partly equipped a secret bunker where Ukrainians track Russian spy satellites and listen in on private Russian military conversations. The U.S. also shares battlefield intelligence that Ukrainians often use to find enemy forces. And Ukrainian troops are training at American and European bases to better fight Russians. But that — and surely some other aspects we don’t know about — are as far as the U.S. and its allies will go.
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Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | DEAL BY MONDAY? Biden’s comment that a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas could be in place in roughly a week came as a surprise to Israel’s top leaders, while Hamas downplayed the possibility, The Associated Press’ TIA GOLDENBERG, WAFAA SHURAFA and SAMY MAGDY report. While holding an ice cream cone Monday night, Biden said of the deal: “My national security adviser tells me that we’re close, we’re close, we’re not done yet. My hope is by next Monday we’ll have a cease-fire.” The public assessment wasn’t made in coordination with Israel’s leadership, catching them off guard, the AP reports. Israeli officials told the outlet that Hamas’ demands are holding up an agreement. Hamas spokesperson BASEM NAIM, meanwhile, told The New York Times’ AARON BOXERMAN and HWAIDA SAAD today that the militant group has yet to formally receive “any new proposals” since negotiators met in Paris last week to discuss a hostage deal. HOSTAGE DEAL DETAILS: But Hamas has received a draft proposal from the Paris talks, Reuters’ SAMIA NAKHOUL reports. That draft proposes a 40-day pause of Israel’s military operation, during which hospitals and bakeries in Gaza would be repaired, hundreds of aid trucks would enter the territory daily, and thousands of tents and caravans would be delivered to house displaced civilians, the outlet reports. In exchange, Hamas would release 40 hostages — including women, children, and elderly and sick people — while Israel would release about 400 Palestinian prisoners who wouldn’t be re-arrested. Israeli officials have also signaled that they’d be open to releasing high-profile Palestinian prisoners serving lengthy sentences, NYT’s RONEN BERGMAN and PATRICK KINGSLEY report. Israel agreed to avoid fighting during Ramadan if hostages are released, Biden said during an appearance on NBC’s “Late Night With Seth Meyers” Monday night. ICYMI — Biden’s late-night talk show appearance draws pro-Palestinian protest by our own SAMANTHA LATSON ‘MORAL CASE’ TO SEIZE ASSETS: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN voiced support for the world’s largest economies seizing Russian assets to help Ukraine’s war efforts and reconstruction, Bloomberg News’ VIKTORIA DENDRINOU and CHRISTOPHER CONDON report. “There is a strong international law, economic and moral case for moving forward,” she said today in Sao Paulo in remarks before meeting with G7 nations, saying that it could push Russia to negotiate an end to the war. “The G7 should work together to explore a number of approaches that have been suggested.” Yellen has previously discussed it with European leaders but hadn’t said whether progress had been made on convincing skeptics of the move. Still, her remarks today demonstrate her continued push to seize the Kremlin’s assets, which has gained bipartisan support in Congress via the REPO bill introduced by Sen. JIM RISCH of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | ‘CHALLENGES WITH HIS SOCIETY’: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY predicted that DONALD TRUMP would face significant pushback in the U.S. if he doesn’t support Ukraine while in the Oval Office. “If Donald Trump doesn't know whom he will support, Ukraine or Russia, he will have challenges with his society,” Zelenskyy told CNN’s KAITLAN COLLINS in an interview that aired Monday night. “To support Russia, it means [to] be against Americans.” Zelenskyy is appearing more and more in American media to encourage the passage of $60 billion in military aid by Congress. If Kyiv gets the money, Ukraine can push back on Russian positions. If it doesn’t, Ukraine will have to prioritize defending what it has. But when asked about the former president, the Ukrainian leader answered with clear alarm about what he’s hearing. “I think Donald Trump doesn’t know Putin. I know he met him,” Zelenskyy continued. “But he never fought with Putin. The American army never fought with the army of Russia … I don’t think he understands that Putin will never stop.”
| | SOMEBODY’S IN TROUBLE: There have been at least 211 types of U.S.-made components found in Russian weapons systems on the battlefield in Ukraine, according to research from the Ukrainian government made public by Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) today, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. Blumenthal, who recently returned from his fifth trip to Ukraine, cited research provided to him by Zelenskyy on the use of American-made components on the battlefield. According to Blumenthal, these included semiconductors and other “high technology,” and were primarily traced to four companies: Intel, Analog Devices, AMD and Texas Instruments. “American manufacturers are fueling and supporting the growing and gargantuan Russian war machine,” Blumenthal said while chairing a hearing on the same topic held by the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations Spokespersons for Intel, TI and AMD all said in statements that the companies suspended sales to Russia in February 2022, and all three stressed they are taking steps to stop the flow of products to Russia. Analog Devices did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Blumenthal sharply criticized U.S. efforts to cut Russia off from the West and hurt Moscow on the battlefield, noting that “our sanctions systems is a sieve, our export control regime is lethally ineffective, and something has to be done.” The senator said that he had sent a letter to the Commerce Department on the issue of U.S. technology being used against Ukrainians, adding that “sanctions are dead letter unless they are enforced.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | ARMY CUTS: The Army is slashing its force by about 24,000, or 5 percent, amid recruiting shortfalls, the AP’s LOLITA BALDOR reports. Importantly, those cuts will mostly be to posts that are already empty and were needed during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, but not as much now. Soldiers won’t be cut, according to a document obtained by the outlet, as the Army reorganizes to prepare for the next major war. The Army is capable of having up to 494,000 soldiers, but there are currently only 445,000 active duty troops. Under the new plan, the Army hopes to have 470,000 soldiers within the next five years. AMMO FOR MOSCOW: South Korea’s defense minister said North Korea has sent some 6,700 containers filled with millions of munitions to Russia since July, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports. Those containers might carry more than 3 million 152mm artillery shells, or 500,000 122mm rounds: "It could possibly be a mix of the two, and you can say that at least several million shells have been sent," SHIN WON-SIK told reporters, per South Korean media. Shin didn’t say how he obtained the information. But he added that, while many of Pyongyang’s munitions factories are operating at 30 percent capacity because of a lack of electricity and raw materials, those making ammo for Moscow are “at full swing.”
| | | |   | | | | | ANGER AROUND AUSTIN: Senators on both sides of the aisle emerged from a classified briefing today deeply frustrated by the initial secrecy surrounding Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN’s hospitalization as well as the Pentagon’s own probe into the episode, our own JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN report. Pentagon officials briefed Senate Armed Services Committee members behind closed doors about the department’s 30-day investigation into the matter, which found that senior officials had no “ill intent” in not informing the White House or the public about Austin’s hospitalization until days later. Some senators said they were also vexed that the review does not blame any staffers for the process and communications breakdown, in which the White House was not told of Austin’s early December cancer diagnosis, his late December surgery or his Jan. 1 hospitalization due to complications from the procedure. But they also fumed about Austin, who has previously taken responsibility for the communication breakdown, for showing poor judgment. Austin has said his need for privacy overcame his duty to inform the commander in chief and the American people about his state. 20/24 VISION: Senate Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) said today that the federal government is “less prepared” to counter foreign interference efforts in elections now than in 2020, citing concerns about a lack of threat-sharing by social media groups, Maggie reports. During an appearance at the Trellix Public Sector Cybersecurity Summit, Warner zeroed in on threats from Russia, noting that it’s “cheaper” for Moscow to meddle in U.S. elections and cause chaos than to build military equipment. “Anyone who doesn’t think the Russian intel services have and will continue to interfere in our elections is — I wonder where they are getting their information to start with,” Warner told reporters following the event.
| | MEDEVAC ISSUES: The United Nations humanitarian office accused Israel’s military of stalling a medical evacuation convoy in the southern city of Khan Younis and forcing paramedics to take their clothes off, Reuters’ GABRIELLE TÉTRAULT-FARBER and EMILY ROSE report. The incident happened on Sunday when paramedics evacuated two dozen people from the Al-Amal Hospital, the office said. The hospital complex has been under siege by the Israeli military, according to Palestinian officials and aid agencies. "The Israeli military forced patients and staff out of ambulances and stripped all paramedics of their clothes," JENS LAERKE, spokesperson for OCHA, told reporters. "Three Palestinian Red Crescent Society paramedics were subsequently detained, although their personal details had been shared with the Israeli forces in advance." Israel’s military didn’t immediately comment but said it was looking into details of the incident. Read: Navalny’s team says Russian funeral agencies won’t deal with them by our own DENIS LEVEN
| | — The Afghanistan War Commission announced several new additions to the team: ELIZABETH NATHAN CONRAD, team chief for interviews and information management; E.J. DEGEN, team chief for military operations and security force assistance; LEAH FIDDLER, senior analyst for policy and diplomacy; AVERY GRAYSON, analyst for development; LUIS VERTIZ, senior data analyst; and KATHERINE ZIMMERMAN, senior counterterrorism analyst. — ASHLEY POWERS is now counsel in Miller & Chevalier’s government contracts counseling and litigation practice. She most recently was senior counsel in the contract law division of the CIA’s Office of the General Counsel. — JAMES SINGER is joining the Biden-Harris 2024 team as a rapid response adviser as the campaign turns its attention to the general election. He comes to the campaign from USAID, where he was a senior communications adviser. — NANA GONGADZE is now a digital comms specialist at The German Marshall Fund. She most recently was head of advocacy communications at Razom. — CINDY DANIELL has joined Enabled Intelligence’s board of advisers. She recently served as director of research for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. — JON STIVERS is the new U.S. director for the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation. He most recently was the minority staff director for the House China Committee. — CHRIS HERRMANN is now U.S. program coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He most recently was the Brent Scowcroft Award Fellow at the Aspen Institute.
| | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: Biden’s never been driven by human rights. This time, it might cost him. — DAHLIA SCHEINDLIN, The New York Times: Myth and reality in Israel’s hostage negotiations — CHIETIGJ BAJPAEE, War On The Rocks: Managing a managed decline: the future of Indian-Russian relations
| | — Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Taking stock of Ukraine in 2024 — Brookings Institution, 9:30 a.m.: Optimizing air power — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Evolving workforce dynamics and the challenges for defense acquisition and defense industrial base personnel — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Can the European Union become a reliable defense actor? — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: Tehran's shadow army: addressing Iran's proxy network in the Middle East — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 11 a.m.: The political landscape in Russia — Hudson Institute, 2:30 p.m.: Financial transparency and national security with Treasury Under Secretary BRIAN NELSON — Atlantic Council, 5 p.m.: Bolstering cooperation among Quad and Pacific Islands countries — Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Wagner Group: the privatization of the instruments of national power — Axios, 6:30 p.m.: The path forward in developing transparent AI guidelines Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, whom we would happily send into a warzone. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is unambiguously strategic. Correction: Yesterday's edition of NatSec Daily incorrectly stated the reason for Thich Quang Duc's self-immolation.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.
Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn More. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
