Playing the expectations game in Michigan

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Feb 27, 2024 View in browser
 
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THE CATCH-UP

GONE IN THE BINK OF AN EYE — RYAN BINKLEY, the longest of long-shot GOP presidential challengers, officially ended his campaign this morning: “Throughout my campaign, I have seen our party struggle to find a place for a new vision while weighing the corrupt allegations and indictments against President [DONALD] TRUMP. He will need everyone’s support, and he will have mine moving forward.”

THE WORD OUT OF THE OVAL — The big four congressional leaders filed into the Oval Office this morning for a meeting with President JOE BIDEN and VP KAMALA HARRIS for a meeting about the current funding standoff. As the leaders arrived with reporters still in the room, Biden quipped: “Government funding, I’m sure you guys got that all taken care of,” per Bloomberg’s Akayla Gardner.

On his way to the White House this morning, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON told Fox News’ Chad Pergram: “We’re going to prevent a shutdown.”

Coming out of the meeting, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER called the White House confab one of the “most intense” that he’s been in, though he noted that it was “productive.” “The intensity in that room was surprising to me,” Schumer said, per CNN’s Manu Raju. “The overwhelming sentiment in that meeting is we have to do Ukraine now.” House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES chimed in to say he’s “cautiously optimistic” that Congress will avoid a shutdown, per Punchbowl’s Heather Caygle.

More from our colleagues Burgess Everett and Eli Stokols

FILE - President Joe Biden meets with UAW members during a campaign stop at a phone bank in the UAW Region 1 Union Hall, Feb. 1, 2024, in Warren, Mich. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File)

President Joe Biden's success in Michigan will largely be determined by his ability to distance his final numbers from the “uncommitted” votes. | AP

COMMITTED TO EXPECTATIONS SETTING — We noted this morning that “uncommitted” received over 19,000 votes in the Michigan Democratic presidential primary in 2020, when there was no organized effort. That’s why Listen to Michigan’s goal of 10,000 uncommitted votes seems a little low.

We had some back and forth with the Biden campaign over what was a proper metric, so we wanted to lay out the recent history of votes for “uncommitted” in the Michigan presidential primary:

  • 2008: 238,168 votes (40.1%)
  • 2012: 20,833 votes (10.7%)
  • 2016: 21,601 votes (1.8%)
  • 2020: 19,106 votes (1.2%)

So what is a fair comparison?

The Biden campaign likes to point to 2008, “the last time there was an organized uncommitted push in the state,” as a Biden adviser emphasized to us. (BARACK OBAMA and JOHN EDWARDS skipped the state, and their supporters largely voted for “uncommitted.”)

They also like 2012, because that was the “last time there was an incumbent president on the ballot.”

Both are fair points, and you will see a lot of Biden surrogates on the tube today making them.

However, when the Biden campaign talks about 2016 and 2020, it emphasizes the raw vote totals (roughly 20,000) rather than the low percentages (1-2%).

Pay attention to both tonight as the numbers roll in before you make your judgments about how successful the “uncommitted” campaign was in Michigan.

More Michigan reads: “Michigan primary live updates: In Grand Rapids, votes for Biden aim to ward off Trump,” via the Detroit Free Press … “‘A season of service’: Why Hill Harper left showbiz for a longshot Senate bid,” by Once Upon a Hill’s Michael Jones: “The 57-year-old actor and intellectual is counting on his Obama-esque charisma, a progressive policy platform and union credentials to compete against a formidable frontrunner.”

PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “D.C.’s cherry blossoms will reach peak bloom 10 days early, we predict,” by WaPo’s Jason Samenow: “Because of abnormally mild weather — which shows little sign of easing — we predict the cherry blossoms will reach peak bloom between March 19 and 23.”

Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

 

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9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

President Joe Biden (center), talks with Teamsters union President Sean O'Brien.

Teamsters President Sean O'Brien has set a meeting with Biden as the influential union weighs an endorsement in the 2024 race. | Andrew Harnik/AP

1. TEAMING UP: Biden is planning to meet with members of the Teamsters on March 12 as the influential union “weighs its endorsement strategy for the coming elections, after interviewing former President Donald Trump last month,” Nick Niedzwiadek writes.

“We realize that President Biden’s time is limited and we appreciate that he is making it a priority to meet with Teamsters,” SEAN O’BRIEN, the union’s general president, said in a release. “Our rank-and-file members and leadership are eager to have this conversation about the future of our country and the commitments that working people need from our next President.”

2. THE IVF INQUISITION: As Republicans continue to scramble to put out the fire ignited by the Alabama supreme court ruling effectively banning in-vitro fertilization — with many lining up to claim their support following a controversial court ruling in Alabama last week — there are still looming questions about how far their support and stances go on the issue. Our colleagues Alice Miranda Ollstein and Megan Messerly tick through the minefield for the GOP:

“The struggle to address the details underscores the complex ethical quandaries surrounding the practice, which in the U.S. typically involves creating multiple embryos, implanting those with the highest chance of success and discarding or storing the rest. Many conservatives are torn between their desire to help parents deal with infertility and their belief in fetal personhood, and have struggled over the last week to articulate exactly which laws and policies should govern this fraught area of health care.”

Related read: “Senate Dems set up IVF showdown,” by Alice

3. HALEY COMMIT: NIKKI HALEY speaks to WSJ’s John McCormick in Grand Rapids, Michigan, ahead of the primary tonight, sounding a familiar defiant tone in the face of what’s expected to be yet another defeat at the hands of Trump. “I’m doing what I think is right,” Haley tells WSJ. “I’m doing what I believe 70% of Americans want me to do,” referring to polling that shows voters want an alternative to Trump. “Haley warned that the Republican Party will continue to see electoral failure if it follows Trump and that his selection as the GOP nominee will result in Biden’s re-election. ‘You have to see the writing on the wall, you have to see the hole in the ship,’ she said. ‘And if you don’t see the hole in the ship, we’re all going to go down.’”

4. NO LABELS, NO CLARITY: By now, No Labels’ gambit to prop up a bipartisan “unity ticket” in an appeal to voters who are feeling the general election malaise about a rematch between Trump and Biden is well known. What’s less clear is what a path for success looks like — and what’s actually going on behind the scenes, The Atlantic’s John Hendrickson reports in the latest look at the centrist organization: “I’ve spent the past several weeks talking with No Labels’ leaders, staffers, consultants, and opponents, trying to understand the organization’s endgame. I came away confused, and convinced that the people behind No Labels are confused, too. They’ve correctly diagnosed serious problems in the American political system, but their proposed solution could help lead to its undoing.”

 

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5. YELLEN SPEAKS: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN this morning said that she “personally urged Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU of Israel to increase commercial engagement with the West Bank, contending that doing so was important for the economic welfare of both Israelis and Palestinians,” NYT’s Alan Rappeport reports. “Ms. Yellen’s plea was outlined in a letter that she sent to Mr. Netanyahu on Sunday. It represented her most explicit public expression of concern about the economic consequences of the war between Israel and Hamas.”

6. WAR REPORT: “After U.S. Strikes, Iran’s Proxies Scale Back Attacks on American Bases,” by NYT’s Farnaz Fassihi, Eric Schmitt and Julian Barnes: “Initially, there were regional concerns that the tit-for-tat violence would lead to an escalation of the Middle East conflict. But since the Feb. 2 U.S. strikes, American officials say, there have been no attacks by Iran-backed militias on American bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria. Before then, the U.S. military logged at least 170 attacks against American troops in four months, Pentagon officials said. The relative quiet reflects decisions by both sides and suggests that Iran does have some level of control over the militias.”

7. SEEING GREEN: Biden’s climate agenda is a central piece of his reelection effort as he tries to make good on promises to make the U.S. greener. Two pieces out today show that Biden’s efforts thus far have produced somewhat surprising winners.

It’s electric: ELON MUSK appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Biden’s crusade to expand the supply of electric vehicle chargers across the U.S., our colleague David Ferris reports. “Tesla is installing more charging plazas than any other company funded by Biden’s 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law, according to an exclusive analysis of public records for POLITICO’s E&E News by the data consulting firm EVAdoption. Tesla has won almost 13 percent of all EV charging awards from the law, earning it a total of more than $17 million in infrastructure grants.”

Green and red all over: “Biden’s Green Factory Push Is Benefiting Republican States,” by WSJ’s Jennifer Hiller and Andrew Mollica: “More than three-quarters of the factory and mining investments will go to congressional districts held by Republicans, according to data on green-economy announcements. On a statewide basis, $112 billion in investment would go to Republican or Republican-leaning states. Big winners include Georgia, which has seen $26 billion in investments announced in a little more than two years. In all, around $106 billion in factories and mines are under construction across the country, $91 billion of which have been launched in the wake of the climate laws.”

8. DON’T LOOK NOW: “While the World Was Looking Elsewhere, North Korea Became a Bigger Threat,” by WSJ’s Timothy Martin and Dasl Yoon in Seoul: Particularly troubling, security experts say, is how sure-footed KIM [JONG UN] looks, despite widespread food shortages, a more confrontational South Korean administration and a U.S. that is rotating nuclear assets into the region more often.”

9. IMMIGRATION FILES: “The economy is roaring. Immigration is a key reason,” by WaPo’s Rachel Siegel, Lauren Kaori Gurley and Meryl Kornfield: “About 50 percent of the labor market’s extraordinary recent growth came from foreign-born workers between January 2023 and January 2024, according to an Economic Policy Institute analysis of federal data.”

 

CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a kickoff reception for the Jenkins Hill Society's 2024 program last night: Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Annie Chavez, Erin Neal, Lelaine Bigelow, Alpha Lillstrom Cheng, Emily Coyle, Elizabeth Barnett, Jordan LaCrosse, Kim Corbin, Elizabeth Sharp, Veronica Pollock, Ryann Hill, Catlin O'Neill, Karissa Willhite and Alissa Clees.

— SPOTTED last night at a cocktail reception celebrating the opening of Chief's new D.C. clubhouse on K Street: Carolyn Childers, Lindsay Kaplan, Sevgi Koklu, Nici Bush, Kristal Davy, Sarah Mugo, Karen Maria Alston, Lynn Pina, Margaret Rogers, Samantha Pelosi, Stacey Brayboy, Nisha Devarajan, Haley Dorgan, Sybille St Arromand, Miya Gray, Stephanie Groot and Sherri Dalphonse. 

MEDIA MOVE — ​​Zainab Khan is joining POLITICO as managing editor of global audience. She previously was VP of strategy and growth at Luminary and is an NYT and AJ+ alum. Emma Krstic is also being promoted to director of engagement for Europe. Read the announcement

TRANSITIONS — AJ Manandic is now press secretary for Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.). She previously was an account executive at Rokk Solutions. … Rachel Weiss is now a senior adviser for external affairs at CMS. She previously was VP of advocacy for health care at Arnold Ventures and is an HHS alum. … Robert Julien is now legislative director for Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas). He most recently was comms director for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.). …

… Mike Quickel is joining Hollier & Associates as a partner. He previously was policy director for Senate Finance Committee ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho). … Michael Stwarka is joining The Herald Group as VP. He previously was a managing director at Targeted Victory. … Elizabeth Fusick is now director of comms for the American Sugar Alliance. She previously was a comms consultant at North Bridge Communications.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Shelley Greenspan, White House Jewish liaison and director of partnerships and global engagement at the National Security Council, and Reuben Smith-Vaughan, director for public policy for Latin America at Amazon, on Feb. 15 welcomed Judah Charles Smith-Vaughan, whose middle name comes from Shelley's grandfather, the sole survivor of his family from the Holocaust. Pics

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