FIRST THING — Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH is Ottawa-bound next week. She's delivering a lunchtime keynote at the Economic Club of Canada on Feb. 5. Meta's RACHEL CURRAN will moderate. Word is the premier is opening an Alberta government office in the nation's capital, headed up by ALEX PUDDIFANT and JAMES CARPENTER. The Canada Strong and Free Network, a nonprofit that trains conservative campaigners, will host an evening reception at the SJAM building just off the Hill. Hundreds are expected to attend. Organizers promise Cabinet ministers. — The elephant in the room: Smith's newly unveiled suite of gender policies — the most restrictive in Canada — includes restrictions on hormone therapy and gender reassignment surgery, as well as parental consent for pronoun changes at school. THE T-WORD — These are heady days for wound-up Tories with visions of a majority government that seem so close, yet so far. Let us count the ways: → They're leaving the Liberals in the dust in key regional polls. → They have a big pre-election warchest. → They're scooping up small donations from the grassroots class and maxed-out contributions from political insiders and corporate honchos. Coalition: built. → Their leader's four-point agenda — "axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget, stop the crime" — is a ready-made campaign platform (reminiscent of Harper's first five priorities). → Liberal operatives savor a showdown, but also joke openly over beers that they're about to get fired by Canadians. — The biggest caveat in Canada: Two-ish years is a lifetime. Campaigns matter. Liberals could win their fourth in a row. Conservatives could yet belly flop. — The biggest secret in town: Almost every Conservative MP, staffer, activist and hanger-on is forbidden by party brass from getting ahead of themselves. Don't think about the day after the next election, focus on today, don't look entitled, don't screw this up. But somebody is probably thinking about it. Any opposition leader serious about a smooth move into power appoints a transition team well in advance of an election. STEPHEN HARPER tapped DEREK BURNEY in the spring of 2005 (as reported by JANE TABER, formerly the Globe's ears on the Hill). "Somebody has to be thinking about this now," says GARRY KELLER, a StrategyCorp VP who was a day-one staffer in the Harper government. "Even if it's people very, very close to the leader, at a very high level before you actually start asking outside people to engage. You do have to be thinking about it, because it is a huge ship of state." PIERRE POILIEVRE's office offered no comment to Playbook on transition thinking. But if Poilievre hasn't thought about the people for the job, he'd be smart to get on that. Sure, an election could be nearly two years away. But every party wants to prep for an earlier vote. Are you one of the chosen few Conservatives thinking about post-election scenarios? Or do you have the goods on who is in the running for transition positions? Your secrets are safe with us and our insider readers who are desperate to know. Drop us a line! — Required reading: Conservatives on the inside ought to be trading copies of DAVID ZUSSMAN's how-to guide for transitions. "Off and Running: The Prospects and Pitfalls of Government Transitions in Canada", is an instruction manual for everybody with a piece of the action: leaders, spouses, confidants, bureaucrats and staffers. Your Playbook host picked up a new copy on Wednesday. Many pages are already dog-eared. → The task at hand: Transition teams don't plan every moment in the life of a new government, but they do think about how they would implement early policy priorities. They study the party leader's cognitive and management styles, and match a new workflow to his or her preferences. A question for Poilievre's team to consider: What does he like in a briefing note? → Timelines: Zussman, a retired public servant who headed up transitions in 1993, 1997 and 2000, tops a chapter on pre-election prep with a BENJAMIN FRANKLIN quote: "By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail." Transition planning can start as early as 18 months before an election, Zussman writes. The pace and rhythm of the work can depend heavily on public opinion: "When the polls are favorable and predict a majority government, the leader is usually keen on thinking about post-election issues." JEAN CHRÉTIEN assembled a team a year in advance of the 1993 election. PAUL MARTIN put his own team together six months prior to the 2003 leadership vote. → Finding a leader: "Most individuals who are chosen to lead the transition exercise already know the leader well and, as former public servants, academics, or lobbyists, have a good knowledge of how government works," writes Zussman. "It may come as a surprise to know that these people are not particularly partisan, but they do bring to the position political instincts that allow them to appreciate the full ramifications of their work." Conservative readers are sketching out potential shortlists. — Don't get ahead of yourself: Conservative MPs and their staffers can't help but think about the prospect of winning. They might picture themselves in a glorious Tory future. They'll poke around about potential jobs or Cabinet roles. The party brass will be on their toes. "Rest assured, they’ll need to ensure someone doesn’t do something brazen and dumb," Earnscliffe's COLE HOGAN tells Playbook. The opposition benches can grind away at a politician's patience. Most got elected in hopes of making a positive difference in the world. "When you've been sitting in opposition, some people for up to nine years, it gets harder and harder and harder to do that. Because when you're in opposition, it's hard to effect change," Keller says. His advice: Don't get distracted. Unless thinking about a Poilievre government is your job, of course.
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