Trump’s primary endgame comes into focus

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Feb 26, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Eli Okun

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THE CATCH-UP

BORDER SONG — The U.S.-Mexico border will host a high-stakes split screen Thursday when President JOE BIDEN and DONALD TRUMP both visit Texas towns, NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Zolan Kanno-Youngs scooped. In Brownsville, Biden will meet with Border Patrol and law enforcement, though he’s not likely to announce new immigration executive actions and it’s unclear whether he’ll speak publicly. It’ll be his second trip to the border in office and his first in more than a year. In Eagle Pass, Trump plans to attack Biden on immigration and highlight crimes committed by undocumented immigrants.

KFILE STRIKES AGAIN — “Key figure in fake electors plot concealed damning posts on secret Twitter account from investigators,” by CNN’s Em Steck, Andrew Kaczynski, Marshall Cohen and Allison Gordon: KENNETH CHESEBRO’s posts as BadgerPundit “undercut his statements to investigators about his role in the election subversion scheme … The Twitter posts reveal that even before the 2020 election, and then just two days after polls closed, Chesebro promoted a far more aggressive election subversion strategy than he later let on.”

Former President Donald Trump speaks to a room of supporters at Winthrop Coliseum during a campaign event.

Donald Trump may be headed for an endorsement from a longtime skeptic, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

TRUMP’S PRIMARY ENDGAME — As Trump tries to consolidate Republican Party support to win the presidential nomination, a sizable portion of the GOP still wants an alternative, as evidenced by NIKKI HALEY’s 40% showing in South Carolina. But the most prominent leader of the non-Trump Republicans — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL — may be heading for a Trump endorsement, NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Shane Goldmacher report.

Trump adviser CHRIS LaCIVITA and longtime McConnell consigliere JOSH HOLMES have been in talks since roughly the Iowa caucuses to keep lines of communications open between the two camps, per the Times. McConnell has previously said he’ll support the Republican nominee.

But an endorsement sooner rather than later — from the leader who has long criticized Trump and hasn’t talked to him since he left office — would help close the door on the primary well before the convention, flagging to donors and other Never Trumpers that it’s time for the GOP to unite. It would be especially notable given that Trump is still actively sabotaging McConnell’s congressional priorities, like Ukraine aid.

To get a sense of the writing McConnell sees on the wall, look no further than this Dearborn dispatch from WSJ’s Jimmy Vielkind and Ariel Zambelich ahead of tomorrow’s Michigan primary: Many white, working-class autoworkers in the Detroit suburbs still haven’t wavered into their fealty to Trump, drawn to his economic agenda and his personality.

Haley’s supporters aren’t giving up. Many of them are thrilled to see her staying in the race, arguing that the rest of the country still deserves a choice and that the long shot is worth it, USA Today’s Francesca Chambers reports. “It’s like a lottery ticket,” one Haley fan tells WSJ’s Molly Ball.

But the Michigan primaries tomorrow will be more closely watched as a general-election indicator than for any suspense about the primary victors. And that’s where Biden faces real political peril too, as encapsulated by NYT’s Jennifer Medina’s profile of a Palestinian American longtime Democratic organizer who’s all out on the president. TERRY AHWAL vows she will absolutely not vote for Biden this week or in November — and the number of Michiganders like her, who are souring on the very idea of working within the established political system, could be determinative in the fall.

PAGING VLADIMIR PUTIN — “Hungary’s parliament ratifies Sweden’s NATO bid, clearing the final obstacle to membership,” by AP’s Justin Spike in Budapest

WHAT CENTURY IS IT? — “A bureaucratic printer jam holds up a major Biden climate rule,” by POLITICO’s E&E News’ Robin Bravender

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

 

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9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

FORT PIERCE, FLORIDA - JUNE 20: The Alto Lee Adams Sr. United States Courthouse where U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon scheduled former President Donald Trump's trial to begin Aug. 14 in her courtroom on June 20, 2023 in Fort Pierce, Florida. Trump was indicted earlier this month on 37 criminal counts and pleaded not guilty to charges related to taking   classified records when he left the White House in January 2021. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

A hearing in Fort Pierce, Florida, on Friday could provide some answers from Judge Aileen Cannon. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

1. SCHEDULE SHENANIGANS: Trump’s legal team is hoping this week to lay the groundwork for the former president not to face trial before the election in his federal criminal election subversion case, CNN’s Katelyn Polantz reports. With Judge TANYA CHUTKAN’s trial currently on pause, Trump’s lawyers want Judge AILEEN CANNON to delay his federal classified documents trial until the summer — and then keep postponing it, preventing Chutkan from getting hers on the calendar.

There are many moving parts in getting ready for trial, of course, and Trump appointee Cannon has shown some openness to delays. “[A] gradually shifting calendar could be just as effective at shielding Trump from other trials through the summer,” CNN notes. A hearing in Fort Pierce, Florida, on Friday could provide some answers from Cannon.

2. KNOWING ALEXANDER SMIRNOV: “The informant next door: A quiet L.A. life masked Kremlin ties for FBI source accused of lying about Bidens,” by the L.A. Times’ Matt Hamilton: “It is unclear how Smirnov went from being a renter in the San Fernando Valley awash in credit card debt to orbiting the powerful in Ukraine, Russia and elsewhere with millions of dollars in his bank accounts. … [There’s] a hearing Monday morning for [Judge OTIS] WRIGHT to evaluate whether Smirnov, who has not yet entered a plea, should remain in custody.”

3. HUNTER BIDEN SPEAKS: “Hunter Biden sees his sobriety as key to keeping Trump from winning,” by Axios’ Alex Thompson: “‘Most importantly, you have to believe that you’re worth the work, or you’ll never be able to get sober. But I often do think of the profound consequences of failure here,’ Hunter said. … A slip by Hunter would weigh heavily on the president as he seeks re-election. … He is resolute that he won’t — can’t — relapse.”

4. RECALL ME MAYBE: California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM is facing yet another recall effort from conservative activists in the state, Chris Cadelago reports from Sacramento. Organizers led by Rescue California slam Newsom for the state’s budget deficit, controversial policy decisions and his perceived focus on national politics. It will take a lot of money and signatures to get the campaign on the ballot, but Newsom’s office says they’re taking it seriously. “A recall that qualifies for the ballot would be another headache for Newsom, but the campaign as it stands in the early stages could prove to be a blessing,” Chris notes: “It gives Newsom a conservative boogeyman to fundraise against.”

 

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5. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD: Artificial intelligence has helped the U.S. determine where to strike in its campaign of Middle East retaliation for the deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan, Bloomberg’s Katrina Manson reports. Using machine learning algorithms that were created via DOD’s Project Maven, U.S. Central Command worked to figure out which rocket launchers and other objects to hit — but humans have to verify any recommendations from AI first. “Oct. 7 everything changed,” says CENTCOM’s SCHUYLER MOORE. “We immediately shifted into high gear and a much higher operational tempo than we had previously.”

6. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: Just as it stops supporting Haley financially, the Koch network’s Americans for Prosperity Action is doubling down on Senate races. The super PAC is going up with $1.6 million worth of positive ads supporting DAVID McCORMICK in Pennsylvania and SAM BROWN in Nevada, NBC’s Emma Barnett reports. McCormick’s own internal polling finds that he’s down by 7 points to Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY, the Washington Examiner’s David Sivak reports. Meanwhile, billionaire KEN GRIFFIN also said he’s now focusing on Senate candidates rather than Haley, per Bloomberg’s Amanda Gordon, Christian Hall and Stephanie Lai.

7. WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: South Dakota activists are working to put a ballot measure to voters this fall that would transform the state’s abortion landscape from a near-total ban to broad legalization. They’re facing backlash not only from Republican lawmakers but also from local and national progressives who say the measure isn’t good enough, Vox’s Rachel Cohen reports. The concerns from the likes of the ACLU of South Dakota and Planned Parenthood North Central States “[illustrate] ideological and strategic fissures within the abortion rights movement that have intensified since the fall of Roe, and leave ballot measure organizers in South Dakota to push ahead alone.”

8. AT 1600 PENN: “As the Election Comes Into Focus, Pressure Builds in the West Wing,” by NYT’s Peter Baker: “For some working in the West Wing or its nearby environs, it can be hard just to catch a breath. Meetings are marked by occasional gallows humor about what catastrophe lurks around the corner. … [T]his period has felt like one of the most intense ever, made all the more bristling because of sharp internal disagreements over the president’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war.”

9. YOU DON’T HEAR THIS EVERY DAY: “GOP budget chair: Tax hikes should be on the table to reduce the deficit,” by Semafor’s Kadia Goba: “‘It’s only fair to have both revenue and expenditures on the table,’ Rep. JODEY ARRINGTON, R-Texas recently told Semafor as he discussed his push for a bipartisan fiscal commission … At a moment when Washington’s eyes are mostly glued to the endless battle over this year’s budget, Arrington has been using his perch to tackle longer-term projects.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Spencer Cox has been announced as the GOP speaker at this year’s Gridiron Dinner, replacing Glenn Youngkin.

Drew McKissick is following Ronna McDaniel out the door at the RNC next month.

Aaron Bushnell, the U.S. airman who self-immolated in front of the Israeli embassy, has died from his injuries.

Alexei Navalny’s team said a prisoner swap to free him was in the works before he died.

MEDIA MOVE — Luke Bradley-Jones will be the next president of The Economist. He previously was general manager of Europe, the Middle East and Africa for Disney+. More from Adweek

TRANSITIONS — Colby Nelson is joining Dezenhall Resources as VP. He previously was senior external relations director at AARP. … Chris Mewett is now deputy assistant secretary of Defense for global partnerships. He most recently was legislative director for Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), and is a Sheldon Whitehouse alum. … Advancing American Freedom has added Andy Koenig and Alan Nguyen as policy advisers. Koenig is a Trump White House alum. Nguyen previously was director of research at the NRSC independent expenditure.

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