What Biden’s new request of Israel actually means

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Feb 28, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

President Joe Biden is pictured in the State Dining Room of the White House.

Requiring that Israel submit a letter promising it won’t violate human rights with American weapons, no matter how pro forma, could provide President Joe Biden with some political cover as he weathers voter fallout. | Andrew Harnik/AP

With help from Joe Gould, Nahal Toosi and Eric Bazail-Eimil

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Yes, the U.S. has asked Israel to sign a letter promising it won’t violate human rights with American weapons. No, it’s not a shift in the Biden administration’s approach toward the war in Gaza.

NatSec Daily, following a report from Axios, confirmed the U.S. asked Israel to sign a letter before receiving a new tranche of weapons, promising it won’t violate human rights with them.

The move follows stricter requirements the White House had outlined for arms transfers on Feb. 8 for all allies, including having the State Department “obtain certain credible and reliable written assurances from foreign governments” that they would use those arms in accordance with international law.

That new rule, inspired by a Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) proposal prompted by concerns about Israel’s conduct, gives a country at war 45 days to respond. Importantly, this regulation applies to every nation — not just Israel.

Two senior administration officials, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue, said the letter request isn’t meant to change how Israel fights in Gaza. “It’s from the national security memorandum,” said one of the officials. Another added it’s “not a signal, just standard process.”

National Security Council spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON confirmed that was the case. “The letter contains standards that have long applied to Israel and that also apply to all other countries we provide weapons to under U.S. law. Israel has already indicated to the U.S. government that it anticipates being able to provide the relevant assurances,” she said.

Van Hollen, in a brief interview today, hailed the letter request as an "important" step but declined to speculate on whether it would change Israel's behavior. He noted that if a country breaches the terms of the presidential memorandum, the administration's options include terminating military aid.

"It's going to be very important that the administration enforce these provisions, not just with respect to Israel, but with respect to any country that receives U.S. military assistance," the senator said. "The administration should be prepared to take measures as outlined in the memorandum in the event there are violations."

Critics of Israel’s campaign say that too many Palestinians have died since Israel’s retaliation for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack — nearly 30,000 by Hamas-controlled ministries’ count. That’s on top of the suffering Palestinians are enduring in other ways, including massive displacement of the population and severe food shortages. And a CNN investigation released today reveals how “the Israeli military’s overwhelming and often indiscriminate use of force in areas where civilians were told they would be safe” has, in at least one reported instance, killed half a family in Gaza.

JOHN SPENCER, a scholar of urban conflict at West Point’s Modern War Institute, argues Israel has done more to minimize civilian casualties than any other fighting force, including by warning civilians to evacuate and using precision-guided munitions.

“The reality is that when it comes to avoiding civilian harm, there is no modern comparison to Israel's war against Hamas,” he wrote for Newsweek in January. “It has implemented more measures to prevent civilian casualties than any other military in history.” Nearly 70 percent of Americans agree that Israel is trying to avoid civilian casualties, per a new Harvard-Harris poll.

Still, requiring that Israel submit a letter, no matter how pro forma, could provide President JOE BIDEN with some political cover as he weathers voter fallout.

He’s under pressure for his handling of the war, with only 38 percent of Americans either strongly or somewhat in approval of his response, according to that same Harvard-Harris survey. More than 100,000 people in Michigan, a state with a large Arab-American population, voted for “uncommitted” during the Democratic presidential primary Tuesday amid a protest campaign against Biden’s approach to the war. And with a State of the Union address next week, the president and his team are surely looking for something that appeals to his progressive detractors.

The administration’s main focus is on delivering a hostage deal and a pause in fighting before Ramadan, which is expected to begin March 10 or 11. Biden this week told reporters an agreement could come together by Monday: “My national security adviser tells me that we’re close. We’re close. We’re not done yet.”

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Make Any Point your Center of Command

Lockheed Martin, guided by our 21st Century Security vision, is driving innovation to connect data points across domains to elevate the capabilities of crucial platforms, empowering customers to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn More.

 
The Inbox

TRICKY TRUCE TALKS: Hamas is prepared to keep fighting Israeli forces, the group’s political leader said today, while Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI said a deal could be reached “in the next few days.”

The Hamas leader, ISMAIL HANIYEH, didn’t shut the door on talks, saying in a speech that “any flexibility we show in the negotiation process is a commitment to protecting the blood of our people, matched by a readiness to defend them,” The New York Times’ HWAIDA SAAD and SHASHANK BENGALI report.

While the assessment from Sisi (whose government has been brokering the talks along with Qatar and the U.S.) matched Biden’s, there has been no indication publicly that a breakthrough has been made in negotiations.

Asked today whether Biden still believes a deal will happen by Monday, White House Press Secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE dodged, saying that the U.S. and partners are still working on securing a truce: The president is “optimistic and he believes that it is important to get done,” she told reporters.

GROWING PUSH TO SEIZE ASSETS: EU Commission chief URSULA VON DER LEYEN called on the bloc today to use profits from over $200 billion of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's war effort, our own JOSHUA POSANER and GREGORIO SORGI report.

The Commission is expected to propose a plan to use the profits to support Ukraine in mid-March, two officials told our colleagues. It's the first time von der Leyen has proposed using earnings generated by those assets to purchase ammunition for Ukraine.

The Commission has long pushed to use those profits, but von der Leyen’s renewed call aligns with increasing U.S. support for assets to be seized and handed over to Ukraine. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN said the world’s largest economies should do just that, and a bipartisan group of lawmakers have also called for seizing assets.

RUSSIA'S GOODWILL TOUR: A top ally of Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN is making the rounds in Latin America this week, pledging Moscow's "comprehensive support" for its friends in the hemisphere against alleged U.S. "interference," the Miami Herald's NORA GÁMEZ TORRES reports.

The trip comes as Russia and China increasingly seek to project influence in Washington's backyard. Russian Security Council Secretary NIKOLAI PATRUSHEV, accompanied by Russian intelligence officials, made the promise after huddling with Cuban, Venezuelan, Bolivian and Nicaraguan officials on Tuesday in the Nicaraguan capital of Managua.

Before his stop in Nicaragua, Patrushev also met privately with Cuban ex-leader RAUL CASTRO in Havana on Monday to discuss security cooperation, just days after Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV visited the island.

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ELECTION 2024

‘BOTH GOING TO LOSE’: If Biden loses re-election in November, Colombian officials warned that it would be a “mistake” for a new administration to alter the relationship with Bogotá.

“If we don’t work together, we are both going to lose,” a senior Colombian official, granted anonymity to discuss another country’s politics, told NatSec Daily. The official emphasized how the Biden administration and Colombia have been strengthening their partnership in tackling drug trafficking, migration and counterterrorism issues.

Another senior Colombian official told us that “it would be a mistake for any administration to modify or try to reduce cooperation. What we do benefits the United States.”

Keystrokes

CAN’T CENSOR US: U.S. tech giants have repeatedly spurned Britain’s secretive military censorship board in its mission to prevent state secrets from spreading across social platforms, our own LAURIE CLARKE and TAMLIN MAGEE report.

The Defense and Security Media Advisory Committee is run by retired military officers and counts some of the U.K.’s biggest media brands, including the BBC, among its members.

It’s responsible for issuing notices to British media, asking them to voluntarily withhold details that could ostensibly undermine national security, whether by outing intelligence personnel or sharing details of secret overseas operations. While the informal letters are not legally binding, it’s rare that D-notices are refused.

The committee has been attempting to bring in tech firms, but the Silicon Valley giants just aren’t interested, our colleagues report.

“We’ve been trying to break into the so-called tech giants,” said GEOFFREY DODDS, DSMA notice secretary and a former military diplomat. Google, Meta and X are among those that have resisted partnering with the group.

Read: Notorious cybercrime gang claims credit for health IT attack by our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS (for Pros!)

The Complex

COME CLOSER: Counter-drone firm Dedrone announced this morning that it has established a Defense Advisory Board to deepen its relationship with the Pentagon and NATO-friendly countries, our own LEE HUDSON scoops (for Pros!).

The first members are retired Gen. RICHARD CLARKE, the former chief of Special Operations Command, and JAMES SMITH, the command’s former acquisition chief. Dedrone plans to add members, according to MARY-LOU SMULDERS, the company’s chief marketing officer and head of government affairs.

The firm’s technology is used to detect and classify an autonomous object, and then break the object’s communication link with its pilot or disrupt its GPS signal.

Read: Scholz and Macron feud over arms for Ukraine by our own JAMES ANGELOS and JOSHUA POSANER

 

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On the Hill

PIN THE PACKAGE ON JOHNSON: The leaders of 23 European parliaments are imploring Speaker MIKE JOHNSON to take up and pass additional assistance for Ukraine amid its ongoing war with Russia, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports.

"We believe that thanks to your personal leadership, the Congress will demonstrate historic bipartisan unity in support of the collective effort to assist Ukraine," they wrote in an open letter. Supporting passage of further aid would "provide Ukraine with the necessary funds to continue its fight," the leaders added.

Johnson's office said in response that "while Speaker Johnson believes we must confront Putin, and is exploring steps to effectively do so, as he said at the White House, his immediate priority is funding America’s government and avoiding a government shut down.”

MCCONNELL STEPPING DOWN: Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL will end his record run atop the Republican power structure in the upper chamber, announcing today he won’t run for another term as leader. He’s served as party leader since 2007, the longest stint in Senate history.

The move comes as the Republican party moves away from McConnell-supported, Reagan-era internationalism to Trump-inspired restraint and nationalism. The two have had a bad relationship ever since McConnell wouldn’t back Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election.

“I am unconflicted about the good within our country and the irreplaceable role we play as the leader of the free world,” McConnell said in a statement announcing his decision.

Read: Senate Democrats urge Israeli ambassador to allow greater humanitarian aid for Palestinians by Anthony

Broadsides

BELA-COUPS: A group of Belarusian dissidents say they are planning a coup against the country’s authoritarian ruler ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO that will be undertaken “at the right time,” our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports.

The partisan resistance group BYPOL — which operates from Poland — has been training officers and actively sabotaging the Kremlin in its war against Ukraine, all in preparation of a coup d’état against Minsk’s regime, a senior leader said.

“We have worked out a plan and will put it into effect at the right time,” former Belarusian officer ALIAKSANDR AZARAU told Belgian media outlet VRT.

SUB SPYING: Australia’s intelligence chief said today that a former politician “sold out” the country to a foreign spy ring, which offered money for reports on the partnership with the U.S. and Britain to build nuclear submarines, among other sensitive information, Reuters’ KIRSTY NEEDHAM reports.

In a speech making the accusations, MIKE BURGESS didn’t name the country or the politician involved, and said the politician hasn’t been charged because they’re not in office. Canberra severed links between Australians and the spy ring, he added.

The AUKUS partnership between Canberra, London and Washington is a security pact that involves the sharing of nuclear sub technology in an effort to counter China’s influence in the strategic Indo-Pacific region.

Read: Navalny’s widow fears ‘bloody mobster’ Putin will carry out purge at funeral our own EDDY WAX and DENIS LEVEN

 

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Transitions

— Maj. Gen. GUNNER ARPE NIELSEN, chief of Denmark's army, resigned ahead of a revamp of the NATO member's military. A new head will be appointed by April.

— Aerospace company SNC tapped CHRIS SHANK to be vice president of enterprise strategy. He was previously vice president and general manager at Maxar.

JOSH ALTMAN is now team chief for policy for Office of the Secretary of Defense public affairs. He was last the national security adviser for Sen. JON OSSOFF (D-Ga.).

What to Read

EDWARD FISHMAN and KEVIN BRUNELLI, POLITICO: Putin Needs to Feel the Pain

PATRICIA LOPEZ, Bloomberg: The big winner in Michigan democratic primary? Uncommitted

MATIAS SPEKTOR, Foreign Affairs: What happened to Lula?

Tomorrow Today

— Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Undermining Ukraine: How Russia widened global information operations in 2023

— PunchBowl News, 9:30 a.m.: News of the day and AI policy with Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.)

— Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Command in review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2025 and the Future Years Defense Program

— Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Diplomacy and Iran

— House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: A review of Defense Secretary Austin's unannounced absence

— House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Port cybersecurity: the insidious threat to U.S. maritime ports

— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Russia's religious persecution and misinformation in Ukraine

— Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Will Lebanon be a future theater of regional war?

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: Governing Gaza after the war

— Wilson Center Latin America Program, 11 a.m.: Ecuador's security strategy, including proposed legal reforms, and the role of the international community in addressing transnational crime in the Americas

— Henry L. Stimson Center, 1 p.m.: Examining implementation of the Child Soldiers Prevention Act

— Government Executive Media Group, 2 p.m.: Artificial intelligence-powered endpoint security in the military: a dispatch from AFCEA West 2024

Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, whom we would like to sign a letter of resignation.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, to whom we would sign over our life rights.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Make Any Point your Center of Command

Lockheed Martin, guided by our 21st Century Security vision, is driving innovation to connect data points across domains to elevate the capabilities of crucial platforms, empowering customers to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn More.

 
 

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