| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | INSIDE DOJ’S TRUMP HUNT — NYT’s Glenn Thrush and Adam Goldman are up this morning with a deeply reported longread that attempts to answer a question that could be central to the outcome of this year’s presidential race: What took AG MERRICK GARLAND and the Justice Department so long to charge DONALD TRUMP with 2020 election-related crimes? With Trump’s D.C. trial held up in Supreme Court limbo, they identify several factors, “some in Mr. Garland’s control, others not,” that pushed an indictment well into 2023. An early attempt to “follow the money” fell flat. Bureaucratic issues inside DOJ, including an overworked and under-managed U.S. attorney’s office in Washington, didn’t help. By the time Garland and deputy LISA MONACO moved to take more control of the case and speed it along, Trump’s political comeback was underway, complicating things further. “In trying to avoid even the smallest mistakes, Mr. Garland might have made one big one: not recognizing that he could end up racing the clock,” Thrush and Goldman write. “[L]ike many before them, Mr. Garland and his team appear to have underestimated Mr. Trump’s capacity for reinvention and disruption, in this case through delay.” OH MY — “Congressman apologizes for using racial slur instead of saying ‘bugaboo,’” by WaPo’s Erin Cox: Rep. DAVID TRONE (D-Md.) “dropped a derogatory word for Black people into a brief speech praising President [JOE] BIDEN’s tax proposals toward the end of a friendly exchange with the director of the Office of Budget and Management.”
|  “The largest majority of people in this country are saying, ‘You know what? When it comes to voting for president, this war in Gaza doesn't matter to me,’” said Dem pollster Mark Mellman. | Evan Vucci/AP | THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: MARK MELLMAN — America’s relationship with Israel continues to roil Democratic politics. The two latest flashpoints are (1) a possible address to Congress by Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU that has Democrats divided on whether they will attend and (2) a growing constituency among congressional Dems for placing additional restrictions on aid to Israel. Out on the campaign trail, this fight is playing out in primaries. The group to watch on that front is Democratic Majority for Israel, which is targeting those House Democrats DMFI sees as hostile to the Jewish state. This week on the Playbook Deep Dive podcast, we sat down with DMFI President Mark Mellman, a longtime Democratic pollster, and got into the weeds on the new politics of Israel within his party. It makes for great companion listening, by the way, with this new POLITICO Magazine dive into the Biden-BENJAMIN NETANYAHU relationship from Michael Hirsh: “From ‘I Love You’ to ‘Asshole’: How Joe Gave Up on Bibi.” We also discussed most of the big polling questions of 2024: Biden’s age, Trump’s hold on the GOP, double-doubters, abortion rights, the fate of NIKKI HALEY voters, the nuances of the Latino vote, bad polling questions, response rates and whether you should bother paying attention to polls at all.
|  | You can listen to the full show on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. What follows are some key excerpts. Mellman on Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s recent speech about Netanyahu: “If you read the whole speech, it was much more balanced and nuanced than the coverage of the speech. … At the same time, I have to tell you: A lot of people in the pro-Israel community were deeply concerned, deeply hurt and angry about aspects of that speech. … To put Bibi Netanyahu on the same level as Hamas as an obstacle to peace is not correct. It's not accurate, and it's certainly not helpful. … He said there are four obstacles to peace: Hamas was one, Netanyahu was another. That’s putting them on the same level. … As somebody who knows something about Israeli politics, I worry that this speech was counterproductive. It was designed to hurt Bibi; it [is] more likely to help him than hurt him.” On why calls for a cease-fire in Gaza are so popular in polls: “When you say to people: ‘Do you favor a cease-fire, yes or no?’ It’s like asking: ‘Do you want world peace?’ Unless you sort of describe the circumstances, the effects, the conditions, you don’t really have anything that's very useful.” On why he thinks the impact of the war in Gaza on Biden’s support has been overstated: “The reality is, when we ask people whether they are more likely to vote for the president because of what he’s done in this war [or] vote against the president because of what he's done in this war, more people are likely to vote for him than against him. … But the largest majority of people in this country are saying, ‘You know what? When it comes to voting for president, this war in Gaza doesn't matter to me.’” On the “uncommitted” vote in Michigan: “I think it was vastly overstated. … All the data journalists said, ‘Meaningless.’ All the storytelling journalists wanted to tell a big story — and they did, irrespective of the facts.” On why he thinks Biden voters upset about Gaza will come around and support him: “The closer we get to this election, the clearer it's going to be to everyone that if you are otherwise a Biden voter who votes for a third party or stays home, you're voting for Trump. And that's going to be very clear to the Muslim community. It's going to be very clear to the Jewish community. It’s going to be very clear to every community that cares about preventing Donald Trump from taking back the White House.” On which House Democrats are on DMFI’s target list: “[New York’s] JAMAAL BOWMAN and [Missouri’s] CORI BUSH — those are the two that are the most vulnerable. Not just because of this issue, but because they also have other problems, additionally. And because both of them have opponents who are serious elected officials in their own right with substantial constituencies. And then you have a couple that don't seem to be vulnerable. [Michigan’s] RASHIDA TLAIB doesn't have an opponent at this moment, so not going to beat somebody with nobody … [Minnesota’s] ILHAN OMAR last time almost lost … She's, I think, in a stronger place than she was before. [New York’s] AOC: in a relatively strong place. The person in the middle is SUMMER LEE, in Pennsylvania. I think it's hard to know exactly how vulnerable she is at the moment. And we'll be looking at that.” On the potential for major protests at the Democratic National Convention this summer: “I certainly hope it isn't the case. … Having a divisive convention hurts Joe Biden. It helps Donald Trump. … But look, it's not going to be the pro-Israel people that are tearing the convention apart. … If there are violent street protests, that's going to be the anti-Israel side of the equation.” On why we shouldn’t place much stock in polling about hypotheticals, such as Republicans saying they will abandon Trump if he’s convicted or Nikki Haley primary voters saying they won’t support Trump in the general election: “People are very bad at putting themselves into an alternative reality and predicting how they're going to respond to some set of facts in an alternative reality. They have a hard enough time predicting what they are going to have for dinner tonight, let alone how they're going to react to some new situation.” On why pollsters keep asking those questions anyway: “Because the people that pay for polls think they’re interesting.” Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from the American Bankers Association: Credit card points and cash back rewards help Americans save, travel and shop — but some in Congress want to end those benefits, just like they shut down debit card rewards in 2011. The misguided Durbin-Marshall bill would eliminate credit card rewards, reduce access to credit cards and jeopardize consumer privacy. Don’t let lawmakers take away your hard-earned rewards just to pad the profits of corporate mega retailers. Tell Congress to oppose Durbin-Marshall. Act now. | | | TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s column this morning: “Why on Earth Does the National Park Service Run a Bunch of Neighborhood Parks in DC?” JUST ANOTHER MANIC MONDAY — “Unless an appeals court soon rules in Trump’s favor, New York Attorney General LETITIA JAMES, a Democrat who brought the case, could begin trying to seize his assets Monday,” note WSJ’s Peter Grant, John McCormick and Corinne Ramey. Indeed, as CNN’s Kara Scannell reports, James’ office has already “filed judgments in Westchester County, the first indication that the state is preparing to try to seize Donald Trump’s golf course and private estate north of Manhattan, known as Seven Springs.” Also on Monday, Trump’s new venture, which runs Truth Social, could become publicly traded. (Its ticker symbol? DJT, of course). Investors are expected to sign off on that move today. If it goes as planned, Trump could pocket around $3 billion. (The surge in the SPAC’s valuation is “reminiscent of the 2021 meme stock craze,” WSJ’s Charley Grant writes this morning.) But, but, but: There’s an important caveat here: It’s unlikely that money will come soon enough to address Trump’s pressing financial woes, as Declan Harty and Victoria Guida report this morning. “Trump won’t be able to cash out anytime soon after the merger. Instead, he’ll likely need to sit on the stock for six months. And his shares, in the meantime, will ride on the whims” of small investors.
| | | | A message from the American Bankers Association:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at 9 a.m., with last votes by 3 p.m. The Senate is in. 3 things to watch …
- If all goes according to plan, sometime later this morning, the House will vote for the $1.2 trillion mini … er, megabus spending bill, sending it to the Senate, where it will face a potentially slow but certain march to final passage. But plans have been tending to go awry in the Capitol these days (if you haven’t noticed), and vote-counters probably gulped nervously when Alabama Rep. ROBERT ADERHOLT, a senior GOP appropriator, announced last night he’d vote no.
- The House math is a little more precarious than usual, since Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is opting to pass the bill under suspension of the rules, meaning a two-thirds majority will be needed — about 280 votes, given attendance this week. The usual suspects are, of course, going to be opposed (watch this morning’s Freedom Caucus news conference for a taste). But it’s GOP regulars like Aderholt and a handful of progressive Democrats upset about cuts to UN funding for Gaza who could make this morning’s vote very interesting.
- Johnson’s plan to invite Netanyahu to address a possible joint meeting of Congress for the fourth time in his long career was met yesterday with grimaces from many Democrats. Top House Democrats mostly kept their powder dry, saying they hadn’t heard from Johnson on the plan. But Schumer said he’d welcome a visit from any Israeli leader, even as many other Democrats — including some longtime friends of Israel — hoped the idea would fizzle, as Nick Wu and Daniella Diaz report for Inside Congress.
At the White House Biden will depart the White House this afternoon en route to Wilmington, Delaware. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Canóvanas, Puerto Rico where she will visit a residential home and deliver remarks with Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM and Puerto Rico Governor PEDRO PIERLUISI. Later, Harris will participate in a campaign reception and depart for Fort Lauderdale, Florida.
| | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So, we have something cool for you: our California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
|  Ever since Biden’s State of the Union address, his campaign has been projecting a new optimism. | Darryl Webb/AP Photo | VIBE SHIFT — Even as polls show a tight race between Biden and Trump, Democrats are breathing easier lately, as Elena Schneider and Jonathan Lemire write. Ever since Biden’s notably energetic State of the Union address, his campaign has been feeling a strange new optimism: He’s outpacing Trump on fundraising, his campaign schedule is purposefully packed and his team is already going up with TV ads in an effort to define the race early — while Trump is still struggling to catch up and mired in legal woes. Even so … “Few, if any, Democrats say that the stretch Biden has had since the State of the Union foreshadows an easy election. … For all the good that the State of the Union may have had in quelling Democratic anxiety, aides privately admit that the president’s age will likely remain a campaign issue, particularly if Biden stumbles again.” (Which, let’s face it, is a virtual certainty.) VEEPSTAKES — Former Rep. TULSI GABBARD (D-Hawaii) once had her sights set on the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Now, the former four-termer is reportedly being considered as a running mate by both Trump and independent presidential candidate ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., NBC News’ Allan Smith and Alex Seitz-Wald report. “But Gabbard’s 2024 possibilities are not fully in her control, nor are they both equally likely … Trump allies and insiders say that while she may be getting a look from the former president, she’s an unlikely choice at best, though she could still land another role in the campaign or in a potential future administration.” More top reads:
- FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Today, Republican Voters Against Trump released its first ad as a part of a new six-figure digital and billboard campaign highlighting former VP MIKE PENCE’s refusal to endorse Trump. The 15-second spot includes a clip of Pence, followed by videos of former Trump voters who won’t be supporting him in 2024. The ad closes with a voiceover: “Mike Pence is putting country over party. We will too.” Watch here
- No Labels, the centrist group-turned-aspiring third party, is running out of time to find a presidential candidate as state ballot deadlines approach. And after several potential prominent names have rejected the idea of a bid on the No Labels ticket, some prominent supporters of the organization have “grown frustrated with the failure,” NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Reid Epstein report.
ALL POLITICS COMING SOON TO A GOP AD NEAR YOU — “Over 100 migrants break through razor wire, knock down guards as they illegally cross El Paso border in wild scene,” by NY Post’s Jennie Taer and Megan Palin THE GOLDEN BOY — Indicted Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) announced yesterday that he will not run for reelection this year — as a Democrat. He’s leaving open the possibility that he’ll run as an independent, Mia McCarthy reports. He’s scheduled to go on trial in early May, and the independent filing deadline is June 4. TRUMP CARDS
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Trump has worked out a unique arrangement with the RNC to help his case. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | MONEY ON MY MIND — We can’t say that we’ve seen anything quite like this before. As Trump's legal troubles (and lawyers’ invoices) mount, the candidate’s “new joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee directs donations to his campaign and a political action committee that pays the former president’s legal bills before the RNC gets a cut,” reports AP’s Michelle Price. What it means: “The unorthodox diversion of funds to the Save America PAC makes it more likely that Republican donors could see their money go to Trump’s lawyers, who have received at least $76 million over the last two years to defend him against four felony indictments and multiple civil cases.” Why now?: The new setup comes as Trump begins the general election well behind the Biden campaign in fundraising. As of the end of last month, Trump’s campaign reported having more than $30 million in cash on hand, while Biden’s reported having more than $70 million. As a bonus, the “new arrangement allows Mr. Trump to tap funds from larger donors for his legal matters without the money ever passing through the R.N.C.,” NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman write.
| | | | A message from the American Bankers Association:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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The U.S. is planning to put a draft resolution requesting an end to the fighting in Gaza before the U.N. Security Council today. | Ohad Zwigenberg/AP | HAPPENING TODAY — The U.S. is planning to put a draft resolution requesting a permanent and immediate end to the fighting in Gaza before the U.N. Security Council today for a vote, “raising the pressure on Israel to pause its five-month-old war with Hamas,” WSJ’s Stephen Kalin and Vivian Salama report. “The call for an immediate cease-fire in the latest U.S. draft is a shift away from Israel for the Biden administration, which has previously called for a cease-fire ‘as soon as practicable.’” The resolution comes as Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is due to arrive in Israel today on his sixth trip to the region since the war began. Blinken said he plans to deliver a message to Israeli officials that “A major military operation in Rafah would be a mistake,” while also remaining optimistic about ongoing cease-fire negotiations, WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum reports from Cairo. Related read: “CIA director heads to Doha for more cease-fire and hostage negotiations,” by Kelly Garrity CONGRESS IMPEACHMENT LATEST — In a rare step for Congress, House Republicans are suing the Justice Department to enforce subpoenas against two career officials — the latest escalation in the GOP’s ongoing, quixotic and sprawling impeachment inquiry into Biden, Jordain Carney and Kyle Cheney report. Yesterday, House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) filed a lawsuit to compel the testimony of DOJ tax attorneys MARK DALY and JACK MORGAN — who “were both first subpoenaed last year as Republicans probed the years-long federal investigation into HUNTER BIDEN.” “The lawsuit sets up a legal showdown that Republicans have been hinting at for months as they near the final stages of their impeachment investigation,” write Jordain and Kyle. “It’s also a potential sign that Republicans are comfortable with dragging out their probe, as GOP investigators eye potential alternatives to impeachment.” SPOT THE DIFFERENCE — “Two Johns’ subtle differences on Social Security, Medicare,” by Anthony Adragna: Amid Democratic attacks on the GOP for entertaining new limits to Social Security and Medicare, Senate Minority Whip JOHN THUNE “suggested that lawmakers take steps to ensure the programs’ continued viability,” Anthony reports. “By contrast, JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) — Thune's chief rival so far in the race to succeed MITCH MCCONNELL — largely demurred on entitlements.” TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Anne Applebaum, Franklin Foer, Jonathan Karl and Nikole Killio. SUNDAY SO FAR … FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). Panel: Guy Benson, Penny Nance, Susan Page and Juan Williams. CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) … Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) Panel: Tia Mitchell, David Drucker and Jeff Maurer. NBC “Meet the Press”: Stephen Breyer … Ruby Bridges. Panel: Stephen Hayes, Kimberly Atkins Stohr and Chuck Todd. MSNBC “The Weekend”: Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) … Mitch Landrieu. ABC “This Week”: Panel: Donna Brazile, Rick Klein, Asma Khalid and Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.). CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Panel: Maggie Haberman, Jeff Zeleny, Julie Davis, and Carl Hulse.
| | | | Easily connect with the right N.Y. State influencers and foster the right relationships to champion your policy priorities. POLITICO Pro. Inside New York. Learn more. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Tim Scott and his fiancée Mindy Noce are planning an August wedding. Ken Buck said that furniture was removed from his House office this week in anticipation of his resignation, even though he was still in it — and that the move might have been punitive. James Lankford had an oddly plated quail breakfast. Kamala Harris and John James don’t agree on much, but both picked Oakland over Kentucky. Rod Blagojevich’s lawsuit against Illinois got tossed by a judge who quoted Dr. Seuss. (“Just Go. Go. GO! I don't care how. You can go by foot. You can go by cow.”) Dan Snyder donated his mega-mansion to charity — and got a gigantic tax write-off in the process. SPOTTED: Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) having lunch with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong at the Capitol Hill Club yesterday. OUT AND ABOUT — José Andrés hosted a “José Andrés and Friends Live” event at the Lincoln Theater last night to celebrate the release of his new “Zaytinya” cookbook, featuring one-on-one interviews with Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Ana Navarro, plus a tribute to former WaPo food critic Phyllis Richman for her 85th birthday. SPOTTED: Patrick O’Connell, Roberto Donna, Todd Gray, Jeff Buben, Jeff Black, Ris Lacoste, Robert Wiedmaier, Ann Cashion, Jamie Leeds, Ashok Bajaj, Joan Nathan, Virginia Ali, Chris Ricchi, Mark Furstenberg, Peter Pastan and Kaz Okochi. — The Streaming Innovation Alliance hosted a panel discussion exploring the streaming landscape and a watch party for the first round of March Madness at the Motion Picture Association last night. SPOTTED: Fred Upton, Mignon Clyburn, Greg Saphier, Michael Maponga, Mann Robinson, Marta Kirsis, Zuraya Tapia-Hadley, John Gibson and Keith Murphy. MEDIA MOVE — Victoria Eastwood is now Middle East news director at the AP. She previously was senior director of Asia coverage at CNN. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kristen Soltis Anderson, founding partner at Echelon Insights and a CNN contributor, and Chris Anderson, software engineering manager at Sweetgreen, welcomed Sophie on Monday. She joins big sister Ellie and dog Wally. Pic — Sopan Deb, a culture and breaking news reporter at the NYT, and Wesley Dietrich, an associate at Cooley LLP, welcomed Kiran on Feb. 28. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) … Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) … Wolf Blitzer … NBC’s Ali Vitali … Judge Neomi Rao … White House’s Alan Williams … Rebecca Miller Spicer of Airlines for America … Lyzz Schwegler … Sarah Feldman of Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-Mont.) office … Kathryn Jean Lopez … POLITICO’s Josh Siegel, Emma Dumain, Alex Wang and Scott Streater … Ann Oliveira … Connor Rose of Rep. Glenn “G.T.” Thompson’s (R-Pa.) office … Dan Backer … Precision’s Matt Williams … Sarah Mars Bowie … AARP’s Myrna Blyth … Patrick Manion … former Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) … former Rep. Thomas Andrews (D-Maine) … Jeff Cohen … former Florida Gov. Buddy MacKay (91) … Public Agenda’s Andrew Seligsohn … Jeffrey Vinik … Time’s Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna … Victoria Blair Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | A message from the American Bankers Association: Credit card rewards are more valuable than ever right now, with high prices and inflation still stinging our pockets — but some in Congress want to take away those rewards points and cash back in order to pad the profits of corporate megastores. The misguided Durbin-Marshall bill would end popular credit card rewards programs that benefit consumers and small businesses. The legislation would impose network routing requirements on banks that issue credit cards, prioritizing cheaper networks pushed by mega retailers that could compromise consumers’ personal information in the process. Tell Congress to leave your credit card rewards alone and stop meddling in the nation’s convenient, safe and trusted payments system. It’s time for lawmakers to protect your points and stand by consumers by opposing Durbin-Marshall. Act now. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
