Looking dicey for bipartisan tax bill

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Mar 25, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Bernie Becker

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CHECKING IN ONCE MORE: The vibes on that bipartisan tax bill heading into a two-week Senate recess? Yeah, still not great.

In fact, Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a longtime GOP tax writer, gave even more reason to doubt the tax bill’s chances late last week, when he blasted the measure negotiated by Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith in a floor speech.

Cornyn talked about the tax bill, which would expand the Child Tax Credit and restore key tax breaks for business, for nine paragraphs, and spoke exactly eight words worth of praise for the legislation. “There are some portions that are very promising,” he said.

Beyond that, the Texas Republican charged that the child credit provisions would eat away at work requirements and add on to the national debt, while also complaining that Wyden refused to bring the bill to the Finance Committee for a mark-up.

It’s that kind of thinking that has some right-of-center tax lobbyists close to incredulous about where the Senate GOP currently stands, particularly given how Republicans generally have supported allowing businesses to more quickly write off investments — something the bipartisan tax bill would accomplish in multiple ways.

Still, Cornyn’s speech underscores that there are multiple layers to what’s become a pretty entrenched Senate GOP opposition to this tax bill, which now passed the House with close to 360 votes going on eight weeks ago.

Both Cornyn and Senate Minority Whip John Thune, also a Finance member, are running to replace Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and both seem to now be seeking to keep GOP senators as united as possible in that opposition.

MORE ON THIS IN A BIT, but we always appreciate you all joining us for more Weekly Tax. At least we have this going for us after that first weekend of March Madness: The Yale Molecular Biophysics and Biochemistry Department’s long nightmare is over.

Doesn’t look a day over 1,400: Today marks 1,603 years since what’s commonly thought to be the founding of Venice, which was when the city’s first church was dedicated.

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MORE ON THOSE VIBES: Wyden responded to Cornyn on social media on Friday, focusing on his bill’s crackdown on the Employee Retention Credit — and arguing that Senate Republicans would have to own the blame if this chance to end the questionable claims of that pandemic-era incentive went by the wayside.

That’s perhaps a fitting response from Wyden: Friday was also the deadline for businesses to disavow erroneous ERC claims and face more modest penalties than they might if the IRS pursues them with an audit or even criminal investigation.

The agency said that it had recovered some $225 million from more than 500 companies through that program, as Pro Tax’s Brian Faler noted Friday.

That number almost certainly will rise — the IRS still has to wade through hundreds more applications for the amnesty initiative — and, in all, the tax collector has assessed or clawed back some $1 billion in wrongful ERC claims after it placed a moratorium on new claims last year.

Still, that’s a far cry from the $78 billion that would be saved through the Wyden-Smith plan, and might underscore why IRS chief Danny Werfel has asked Congress to give his agency more tools to battle the flood of claims that it’s still receiving.

Why don’t you like this? Some Senate Republicans, like Thom Tillis of North Carolina, are downright hostile to the Wyden-Smith plan’s use of the ERC crackdown as an offset, while others at least don’t seem to think the savings from the move is attractive enough to offset their other concerns about the bill.

With that in mind, the Bipartisan Policy Center released a new analysis on Friday that tries to make the case for the Employee Retention Credit provisions as a “necessary and worthy offset.”

The group’s Caroline Osborn and Andrew Lautz argued that it’s past time to end a pandemic relief measure, particularly with so many questionable claims still pouring in — and that the $78 billion in the Wyden-Smith bill are legitimate savings

There’s a 2025 angle for all this, too, when Democrats and Republicans battle over those numerous expiring provisions from the 2017 GOP tax law. “The ERTC provisions in the current tax bill are an example of lawmakers working together to find responsible and robust fiscal offsets,” Osborn and Lautz wrote, adding that “Congress should build on this progress in the months and years ahead.”

FIRST LOOK: There are now three weeks left in this tax filing season, during which a lot of people have been paying attention to how well the IRS’s Direct File pilot program is working.

By the latest count, the IRS says that more than 50,000 people have at least started a tax return on its portal, as the Biden administration has sought to build Direct File out slowly.

Now, the progressive group Groundwork Action, which has been a big supporter of the government-run filing portal, is trying to give Direct File one last push during this filing season.

The organization is launching a six-figure ad campaign that will reach all dozen states where the Direct File portal is currently operational — Arizona, California, Florida, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming.

“We’re launching this advertising campaign to ensure taxpayers know that Direct File is an option for them this tax season and to signal to lawmakers that providing a free filing option through the IRS is popular,” said Igor Volsky of Groundwork Action.

Meanwhile, conservative groups and the private tax preparation industry have continued to knock Direct File as a bad idea — arguing, among other things, that it’s a wasteful use of government resources.

(Worth noting: Given how narrowly Direct File is starting this year, these arguments certainly will bleed into next year’s filing season as well.)

 

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Around the World

Reuters: “Trudeau government survives no confidence vote over Canada carbon tax rise.”

The Guardian: “‘The cost of dealing with disease is growing all the time’: why experts think sugar taxes should be far higher.”

Bloomberg: “Exxon Signs Ammonia Accord, Presses Case for Hydrogen Tax Credit.”

Around the Nation

The Clarion-Ledger: “Mississippi legislature unlikely to pass new income tax cut this year.”

Nebraska Examiner: “Property tax relief bill advanced to lower school tax by half or more.”

Associated Press: “Chicago voters reject ‘mansion tax’ to fund homeless services during Illinois primary.”

Also Worth Your Time

NPR: “This tax season, IRS launches e-filing, goes after wealthy tax evaders.”

Bloomberg Tax: “5-Hour Energy Founder, Swiss Bank Focus of Senate Tax Probe.”

Associated Press: “How freelancers can prepare for changing tax requirements.”

Did you know?

Venice has 417 bridges. (For whatever it’s worth, Hamburg, Germany, has around 2,500 bridges.)

A message from Intuit, powering prosperity and financial health worldwide with TurboTax, QuickBooks, Credit Karma, and Mailchimp:

The gender pay gap still exists. A complex tax code isn’t helping. Today, women earn only 82 cents for every dollar earned by men. As a result, women open fewer retirement accounts, contribute less to them over the course of their careers, and enjoy fewer benefits from one of the largest federal tax breaks available—retirement savings.

Intuit believes that taxes should be transparent, simple, and fair. After all, everyone deserves to be treated equally when it comes to filing their taxes. Learn more.

 
 

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