What the third John is thinking

Mar 01, 2024

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Sen. John Barrasso speaks during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol.

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is considering a number of different routes to promotion in Senate leadership. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

THE CATCH-UP

THE LEADERSHIP LIMBO — Sen. JOHN BARRASSO is one of the Three Johns who could make a move for the Senate Republican leader post when MITCH McCONNELL vacates the perch. But the Wyoming Republican might spurn the top spot for another promotion.

Barrasso could “instead pursue the party’s whip job this fall, elevating him to the No. 2 role, a leadership suite, security detail and being at the heart of Senate floor action every day,” our colleague Burgess Everett reports.

“Barrasso has not made a public decision on his plans and seems truly undecided, according to people familiar with party dynamics. In contrast to Cornyn and Thune’s launches this week, Barrasso will decide on his own timeline, according to a person familiar with his thinking. In doing so, he effectively freezes the field for the rest of the down ballot races.”

Another nugget: Sens. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa) and TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) are considering runs for conference chair, the spot Barrasso currently occupies.

SUPER SIZE ME — Sixteen states are set to vote on Super Tuesday next week, delivering the lion’s share of delegates for the presidential race and key results for a handful of primary races.

HALEY’S COMMIT: In the presidential contest, the outsized share of the coverage is likely to stay with NIKKI HALEY as she continues her increasingly quixotic challenge to knock DONALD TRUMP off of his glide path to the GOP nomination.

The latest wind behind Haley’s sails comes in the form of a whopping $12 million fundraising pull for the month of February, “a haul that will likely allow her to remain in the Republican primary against Trump past next week’s Super Tuesday — even though she can’t point to an upcoming state where she thinks she’ll beat him,” AP’s Will Weissert writes.

The details: “Haley outraised Trump in January, taking in $11.5 million while her allied super PAC brought in another $12 million. The former president’s campaign raised $8.8 million in January with his primary super PAC taking in another $7.3 million. Asked about Haley announcing her strong February fundraising, Trump campaign spokesman STEVEN CHEUNG said, ‘Our focus is now on JOE BIDEN and the general election.’”

PRIMARY COLORS: Meanwhile, there is new polling in two hyper-scrutinized Senate primary races (one of which will take place on Tuesday) that shows where both parties stand nine months out from November.

Going to California … In the top-two California Senate primary set for Tuesday, Democratic Rep. ADAM SCHIFF and Republican STEVE GARVEY have moved into a “statistical tie” and are both positioned to advance to a general election matchup to take over the seat of late Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN, according to the latest polling in the race.

Garvey earned the support of 27% of likely voters in what is expected to be the final primary poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, followed by Schiff at 25%. Next in the running is Rep. KATIE PORTER with 19%.

If these results hold on Election Day next week, it would vindicate Schiff’s decision to spend big money elevating Garvey in the eyes of conservative voters: Schiff would likely cruise past Garvey in the general, with the poll showing Schiff leading Garvey, 53% to 38%, in a hypothetical head-to-head November matchup.

Should Garvey advance, it would be a blow for Porter and the progressive wing of the party — though avoiding a Dem vs. Dem matchup may be a blessing in disguise. According to the poll, a Schiff-Porter matchup would result in an expensive dogfight, with the two tied at 30% in a head-to-head, with another 40% undecided. (FWIW, Porter would have a 52% to 38% advantage over Garvey.) More from Lara Korte … See the full poll results

In Ohio … While the GOP Senate primary in the Buckeye State isn’t for another couple weeks, businessman BERNIE MORENO is widening his lead in the contest to double digits as he aims to dispatch his competition for the chance to take on vulnerable Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN this fall, according to the candidate's own internal polling conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.

“Moreno took 31 percent of the vote in the survey of 500 likely voters, conducted in late February. Ohio Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE and state Sen. MATT DOLAN followed with 21 percent and 19 percent, respectively,” our colleague Ally Mutnick reports. “But the race is still up for grabs: 27 percent of voters surveyed are undecided. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.”

A victory for Moreno would be a boon for the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, as he already carries the endorsement of Trump and Sen. J.D. VANCE.

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

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FRIDAY FOOTAGE DUMP — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON announced this morning that the House Administration Committee released 5,000 additional hours of security footage from the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Furthermore, Johnson said, “the Committee will no longer plan to blur the faces of individuals in the footage given the significant logistic hurdles involved.” See the trove for yourself on Rumble

Related read: “Some Jan. 6 sentences were improperly enhanced, appeals court rules,” by Kyle Cheney

7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

President Joe Biden leaves after speaking about the September jobs report in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Friday, Oct. 6, 2023, in Washington.

White House aides are trying to keep protests away from the president during remarks and appearances. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

1. INSIDE 1600 PENN: “How Biden aides are trying to shield the president from protests,” by NBC’s Monica Alba, Carol Lee, Peter Alexander and Elyse Perlmutter-Gumbiner: “Biden’s team is increasingly taking extraordinary steps to minimize disruptions from pro-Palestinian protests at his events by making them smaller, withholding their precise locations from the media and the public until he arrives, avoiding college campuses and, in at least one instance, considering hiring a private company to vet attendees.

“The efforts have resulted in zero disruptions at events the White House or the campaign have organized for Biden in the five weeks since he was interrupted a dozen times during an abortion rights speech in Virginia. But they have also meant that Biden is appearing in front of fewer voters and not personally engaging with some of the key constituencies whose support he is struggling to gain, such as young voters.”

He ain’t wrong … The Intercept’s Ryan Grim observes: “A Democratic campaign that is scared of college campuses is not a campaign that can win given today’s coalitions”

2. BOLD AS HIS BOW TIES: After declining a potential ascension to the top perch of his party last year, Rep. PATRICK McHENRY is “closing out two decades in Congress by returning to the bomb-throwing days of his youth. His new target is House Speaker Mike Johnson, and it’s starting to rattle fellow conservatives,” our colleagues Eleanor Mueller, Jasper Goodman and Zachary Warmbrodt write. “The underlying tension is that McHenry believes Johnson is holding back activity in the House because of fears that he’ll suffer the same fate as his predecessor, KEVIN McCARTHY.”

Said McHenry … “I’ve never been bashful about sharing my views, either in the room or outside the room. And what I’m saying is obvious to a majority of the House Republican Conference.”

3. KNOWING SUSIE WILES: The longtime GOP operative is leading Trump’s reelection effort with a “low-drama approach” that is serving as a “crucial counterbalance to a volatile candidate,” NBC’s Jonathan Allen and Matt Dixon write in a look at Wiles’ perch in the 2024 landscape. “Her task — helping return a defeated, twice-impeached former president facing four indictments to the White House — is unlike any other faced by an American political operative.

“Skeptics note that Wiles has never run anything with the scope or stakes of this undertaking, that the campaign has been spending more than it raises and that Trump’s primary victories more closely resemble those of a prohibitive favorite than a world-beater. And yet, with Wiles at his side, Trump heads into next week’s Super Tuesday contests carrying commanding leads in delegates and most public polling of coming primary contests.”

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4. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: “Deadly Gaza Aid-Convoy Incidents Prompt Calls for Probes,” by WSJ’s Omar Abdel-Baqui, Summer Said and Anat Peled: “The U.S. and other countries called for investigations into how scores of Gazans died near an aid convoy, as the Israeli military gave an initial estimate that it killed fewer than 10 people when its troops shot at a crowd of Palestinians nearby. Israeli officials said two separate nearby incidents took place early Thursday and that in one of them Israeli troops opened fire. They added that dozens of people were fatally trampled or injured in a crush as thousands of Palestinians surrounded some 30 trucks carrying aid into northern Gaza, where supplies have been particularly scant.”

5. THE PRICE OF PEACE: “Document From 2022 Reveals Putin’s Punishing Terms for Peace,” by WSJ’s Max Colchester, Thomas Grove and James Marson: “The document, dated April 15, 2022, sketches out how negotiators on both sides sought to end the fighting by agreeing to turn Ukraine into a ‘permanently neutral state that doesn’t participate in military blocs,’ barred from rebuilding its military with Western support and leaving Crimea under de facto Russian control.”

6. THE MILITARY-INTERNATIONAL COMPLEX: “Why More American Weapons Will Soon Be Made Outside America,” by NYT’s Damien Cave: “The embrace of joint production reflects a wider awakening in Washington and other capitals: The United States by itself cannot make enough of the weapons needed for protracted warfare and deterrence. Vulnerable partners like Taiwan are already facing delayed orders for American equipment even as China’s military capabilities continue to grow.”

7. SPORTS BLINK: “Olympic Commission Wants to Put the U.S. Government in Charge of Youth Sports,” by WSJ’s Louise Radnofsky and Rachel Bachman: “Sports organizations under the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee should focus only on selecting and training elite athletes, the commission recommends. Youth sports, they say, should fall to the U.S. government — with tax breaks for families and would-be coaches.”

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PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) dining at Pastis yesterday evening.

OUT AND ABOUT — Nikki Haley had a fundraiser last night at the Westin Tysons Corner in Falls Church, where she was introduced by former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) and raised roughly $200,000. Co-hosts in attendance included Dave Beightol, Bobbie and Bill Kilberg, Steve Caldeira, Morgan Vina, Lee Dunn, Antonia Ferrier and Kurt Volker. Also SPOTTED: Lisa Gable, Tom Korologos, John Wood, Marcia Carlucci, Steve Livengood and Tom Collamore.

— Warner Bros. Discovery and the Motion Picture Association hosted a screening of “Dune: Part Two” last night. SPOTTED: New Zealand Ambassador Bede Corry, Scott Nathan, Mariana Adame, Rahul Gupta, Drew Rodriguez, Aisling McDonough, Casey O’Shea, Christopher Crawford, Maeve Healy, Alexa Verveer, Neil Fried and Charles Rivkin.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Nick Berning and Gina Coplon-Newfield are joining Sunstone Strategies in newly created managing director positions. Berning previously led the comms team at the Green New Deal Network. Coplon-Newfield previously was chief of staff for the Office of Policy in the Department of Energy.

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