| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Jordan Wolman | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → The budget items the government wants to talk about. → The budget questions on the desk of the Parliamentary Budget Officer. → The budget measures that didn't make headlines. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
NARRATIVE WATCH — The tragedy for any government that produces a 416-page federal budget is that media narratives often veer into dicey territory — especially bad news for a government that hasn't come out ahead in a poll since May 29, 2023.
— Flashback: Léger measured a 2-point advantage over the Tories, 33 percent to 31. — Wish list: Senior Liberals might prefer journalists spend time writing about, say, a federal commitment to open banking and a pile of innovation-focused measures — R&D tax credit reform, regulatory "sandboxes," changes to the accelerated capital cost allowance for IT and tech investments. They also hope we'll credit the government's ambition on everything ending in -care: pharmacare, dental care, child care and health care. — In other words: They see more in this budget to write about than a capital gains brouhaha. UNDER THE RADAR — Playbook asked Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX what the tussle over hiked taxes has drowned out in CHRYSTIA FREELANDs annual fiscal plan. Like most geeks, Giroux and his crew flip straight to the tables near the back of the budget document and compare the government's fiscal and economic projections to the PBO's most recent calculations. Next up are the costs outlined at the end of each budget chapter, followed by the planned legislative measures. Giroux doesn't spend too much time on Freeland's speech. — The size of government: Giroux says the math doesn't add up on an expectation — buried on p. 349 — that the federal public service will shrink, due to "natural attrition," by 5,000 full-time equivalents, or FTEs, over the next four years. The Liberals appear to have pledged too many things for that to be realistic, he says, pointing as one example to a promise to bolster call centers at the Canada Revenue Agency — which will mean staffing more desks with more people. "There's many, many more that are in that same vein." "It's a bit difficult to reconcile all these multitude of announcements and initiatives and spending with a reduction in the number of FTEs," Giroux says. "We can expect the public service to not decrease — and if anything, stabilize or even continue to grow." — Poilievre watch: Bloated bureaucracy is music to the Conservative leader's ears. PIERRE POILIEVRE likely also noticed another pledge — scroll to p. 396 — to increase the federal borrowing limit above C$1.8 trillion. — What's next: Giroux tells Playbook his office plans to publish a post-budget report as early as next week that crunches the numbers on Freeland's plan. | | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | WHAT WE DIDN'T TALK ABOUT — Playbook reached out to budget-watchers who read the fine print. We wanted to know what didn't get covered during the past week. Here are their replies: JENNIFER ROBSON, program director of political management at Carleton University's Arthur Kroeger College: Two undercovered items — one good, one horrible. → The good: The Canada Learning Bond is finally getting automated so eligible kids won’t be left behind anymore. The CLB is education savings for low-income kids, from birth to high school, to make it a little easier for them to go on to the trades, college or university. The program has so far struggled to reach more than one-third of eligible kids — mainly because of the administrative burden on families. This is a measure that could boost long-term productivity and clearly checks the box on fairness. If the government gets it right, the CLB will be a model for how to remake programs to be less frustrating for citizens. → The horrible: The budget pulled a bait-and-switch on the Canada Disability Benefit. Disability organizations have been, for years, patiently going along with rounds and rounds of consultation, settling for framework legislation that kept being delayed, and still more rounds of “consultation,” all because they were promised a say in the final design and a program that would cut poverty rates for adults with disabilities (which are double the national rate). But the design work has been totally short-circuited. The only thing left is for the government to finish trickling out the bad news on how meager and how hard-to-get they’ve decided this program will be. Not even the minister responsible for disability seems to want to talk about it. TYLER MEREDITH, founding partner of Meredith Boessenkool Policy Advisors: The Canada Disability Benefit is one of the largest measures in the budget — C$1.4 billion per year when implemented — and almost as big as all the housing measures combined. The expectations of advocates was (justifiably) very high thanks to the bill that established the benefit. The government didn't meet those expectations, but nor have the opposition or the provinces said what they think is an appropriate level of investment at a time when critics complain about inflation, which exacts a toll on the poor (many of whom are persons with disabilities). KEMA JOSEPH, consultant at Crestview Strategy: A whole chapter was dedicated to reconciliation with Indigenous peoples, and I have yet to hear a peep. It was nice to see the federal government commit C$918 million, adding to the previous C$4 billion, for urban, rural and northern Indigenous housing. I have worked with several organizations advocating for this funding for decades, and it is gratifying to see their advocacy bear fruit. This government has truly prioritized reconciliation and making commitments to this cause, yet it doesn't seem to be gaining traction in the mainstream media. CHRIS SANDS, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center: It was clearly a domestic-focused budget, understandable ahead of an election next year. But given our U.S. election this year, and the “Team Canada” engagement announced after the Liberal Cabinet retreat, I was surprised some things were not done. Most importantly, defense spending only increases to 1.76 percent of GDP by 2029-2030. We could well be at war then. More immediately, it is going to be a top priority under BIDEN 2.0 or TRUMP 2.0. As the debate this weekend in Congress showed, the contributions of allies is on their agenda as well. Also, given the mounting diplomatic and development challenges, the increases to Global Affairs and foreign aid are quite tiny, so Canada will continue to be unable to contribute much internationally. It reinforces the perception of a "Canada that can't" as opposed to the old reputation of a "Canada that won't." | | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Saskatoon for a budget roadshow stop at 10:45 a.m. local time. Trudeau will hold a media availability, joined by Northern Affairs Minister DAN VANDAL and Women and Gender Equality and Youth Minister MARCI IEN, — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto, where she will take part in a fireside chat on the federal budget at 11:30 a.m. followed by a media availability. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Edmonton, where he's knocking on doors with local MPs in the afternoon. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY plans to attend U.N. negotiations on plastic pollution at the Shaw Centre.
| | DULY NOTED | |
— Defense Minister BILL BLAIR launches a three-day trip to the Northwest Territories.
— The ministerial budget roadshow also lands in Coquitlam, B.C., Edmonton, Alta., Thunder Bay, Ont., La Tuque, Que., Quebec City, and Wolfville, N.S. — Governor General MARY SIMON continues her tour of Saskatchewan. — Three Bloc Québécois MPs — ALAIN THERRIEN, GABRIEL STE-MARIE and NATHALIE SINCLAIR-DESGAGNÉ — will tour Quebec's Estrie region. 9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer publishes a report on employee ownership trusts. 2:15 p.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will make an announcement "to help promote a circular economy and reduce plastic pollution in Canada." We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients . | | Talk of the town | |
A LONG WEEKEND IN OTTAWA — POLITICO's sustainability team sent JORDAN WOLMAN to cover this week’s global plastic pollution negotiations. Pro subscribers can read his latest dispatch from negotiations.
Ottawa Playbook invited the Washington-based reporter to grade our nation's capital. — Short version: Although Wolman heard the infamous “city that fun forgot” line more than once during his stay, he says he doesn't entirely buy it. “Parliament Hill is beautiful and ByWard Market is a great spot. Lots of history, too, and Major's Hill Park is great.” — The food scene: “Pretty good. Didn't expect so much diversity. Hats off, Ottawa.” — What's up with the canal? “Doesn't quite match the photos online. Climate change, I guess?” — The accents are great: "’Abooout’" and such. Keep it coming. Don't change.” Lightning round of Ottawa Yelp reviews: — The Shaw Centre's ability to hold a few thousand people: ★★★★★ “I mean, it was impressive. Sure, the security lines in the 8 to 9 a.m. hour in zero-degree weather weren't ideal. But it's a great space that can handle 4,000 people. That's not just me: Other folks who have been to plastics treaty negotiations in Uruguay, Paris and Nairobi also commended the organization in Ottawa.” — A BeaverTail's ability to satisfy your convention-snacking needs: ★★★★ “This was my first BeaverTail experience, and it was fantastic. The knock is more that I wasn't able to detect a BeaverTail in the immediate vicinity of the Shaw Centre.” — Typically garbage April weather: ★ “It was really weirdly off-and-on rainy, cloudy, and yes, there were snow flurries. The moments of sun — and there were moments — livened up the city and had me dreaming of returning in warmer months.” TRIVIAL PURSUIT — We're revving our engines for the fifth round in our First Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup. — Calling all parliamentarians: We're recruiting MPs, senators and their geekiest and keenest staff for May 6 at the Met. We have plenty of space. Just cook up a team name and recruit your sharpest colleagues. — Signing up is easy: RSVP to the quizmaster today! | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— Top of POLITICO: Prosecutors say DONALD TRUMP violated his gag order 10 times. The judge is finally set to weigh in.
— DANIEL LEBLANC of CBC News reports that Canada Post is refusing to collect banned guns for Ottawa's buyback program — SERENA RENNER in “Hakai Magazine” writes that by affirming Indigenous land ownership, British Columbia and the Haida Nation are signaling a new era for Indigenous relations. — How much will it cost to repair 24 Sussex? CTV News put the question to developer STEVE BARKHOUSE. — CATHERINE MORRISON of the Ottawa Citizen details the pests found in federal government buildings: “mice, bed bugs, bats, ants, a skunk, raccoons and insects like silverfish, drain flies, beetles and sand ants.” — Courtesy our D.C. colleagues: Your guide to 2024 White House Correspondents’ Dinner week parties and events. — SALIMAH SHIVJI of CBC News shares a curtain raiser on “the single biggest election in the history of democracy.” | | PROZONE | |
Don’t miss our latest newsletter for Pro subscribers: Trump clock tick tock.
In other news for Pros: — Biden kicks off a weeklong climate offensive. — Typo derails probe of fatal LNG accident. — Alaska senator slams Biden admin's move to restrict drilling and mining. — Oceana president will take over as CEO this summer. — Newsom plots course to reverse carbon loss from wildfires, wetlands and deserts. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
BIrthdays: HBD to Sen. MARTY DEACON and Bluesky Strategy principal SUSAN SMITH.
Celebrate your day with the Playbook community. Send us the details. We’ll let everyone know. Spotted: At MARK CARNEY's speech at Toronto's Omni King Edward Hotel (a frequent stop for Liberal fundraisers of late, for what it's worth): MARCO MENDICINO, ROB OLIPHANT, JEAN YIP, JULIE DZEROWICZ, ALI EHSASSI, JAMES MALONEY, NATE ERSKINE-SMITH, TOM PITFIELD, BRAEDEN CALEY, GERRY BUTTS, TIM BARBER, SUSAN SMITH, MAX VALIQUETTE, Chief CRYSTAL SMITH, Chief DAVID JIMMIE, BEN MULRONEY, KARIM BARDEESY, DAVID HERLE, TIM MURPHY, TERRIE O'LEARY, DAVE FORESTELL and JOHN STACKHOUSE. JULIE SÉGUIN, a Conservative nomination hopeful in Prescott-Russell-Cumberland, telling a local reporter that as an MP, she'd donate her annual raise to charity. Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY celebrating Earth Day and her fifth wedding anniversary. Noted: Nine out-of-control wildfires in two provinces and one territory, per the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Movers and shakers: The Home Depot has a new lobbyist on the Hill: Proof's JOSH ZANIN … Daisy Group's WARREN KINSELLA is now repping the Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation … StrategyCorp's FRÉDÉRIK LAROUCHE met with Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ's chief of staff, ANSON DURAN, on behalf of Flair Airlines and De Havilland Canada. Former Toronto city councilor JOE CRESSY announced Monday that he’s accepted a new job as chief of staff at Waterfront Toronto. | | ON THE HILL | |
→ Find House committees here.
→ Keep track of Senate committees here. Parliament returns April 29. | | TRIVIA | |
Monday’s answer: As CBC described it: “On April 22, 1915, old-fashioned warfare turned modern. … A green cloud — poisonous chlorine gas — rose from the German trenches.”
Props to DAN MCCARTHY, ANDREW FITZPATRICK, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, SHAWN ABEL, EMMA MACKENZIE HILLIER, JOHN G ALHO, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, CAMERON RYAN, DON NEWMAN, LAURA JARVIS, DOUG RICE, PATRICK DION, JIM CAMPBELL, MORGAN LARHANT, WILL BULMER, GUY SKIPWORTH, CHRIS ROL, MARCUS MATTINSON, CHRIS RANDS, SM LEDUC, JOHN ECKER, BOB GORDON, STEPHEN HAAS and MARCEL MARCOTTE. Today’s question: Who was the youngest MP named to Cabinet? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
