| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Paul McLeary and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  “We face the biggest arms race in our region since 1945, and the greatest strategic uncertainty, and we're responding,” Pat Conroy, Australia’s Minister for Defense Industry and Minister for International Development and the Pacific, told NatSec Daily. | Pool photo by Willy Kurniawan | With help from Nahal Toosi, Connor O’Brien and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Top Australian officials are sounding their own alarm about China’s threat in the Indo-Pacific as President JOE BIDEN unveils historic defense partnerships with Japan and the Philippines today. “We face the biggest arms race in our region since 1945, and the greatest strategic uncertainty, and we're responding,” PAT CONROY, Australia’s Minister for Defense Industry and Minister for International Development and the Pacific, told NatSec Daily during a visit to Washington today. Conroy said that the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pact between the Australia, the U.S. and the U.K. — which has been touted as a major step toward deterring China — is “a bipartisan commitment and it will outlast any particular government.” When it comes to building up Australia's own defense industry and integrating it with the U.S. and U.K., Conroy said “everyone needs to pick up the pace.” Canberra is doing its part, pledging to boost its navy from 11 large warships to 26, while Australian companies co-produce the U.S. Army’s new precision strike missile that will replace the Army Tactical Missile Systems, and other munitions. Shortly after this newsletter lands in your inbox, Biden will sit down with Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA and Philippines President FERDINAND MARCOS JR. for their first-ever trilateral summit. Marcos in particular is “coming under pressure from the PRC’s aggressive tactics,” which is a reason for the meeting, a senior administration official said in a preview of the meeting. Australia’s rapid beefing up of its defense, coinciding with Japan’s record defense budget increase this year, is intended to deter China’s actions in the region, especially a potential invasion of Taiwan. China delivered a harsh rebuke today to Biden’s meetings with his Indo-Pacific allies: “The U.S. and Japan attacked and smeared China on the Taiwan question” and other issues, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING told reporters today. “China deplores and opposes it, and has made serious démarches to relevant parties.” During a lecture at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis on Wednesday, Australian Ambassador to the U.S. KEVIN RUDD applauded the Pentagon’s efforts since November to rebuild frayed connections with their Chinese counterparts, with the end goal to minimize conflict in the Indo-Pacific. But observers need to be “deeply sober” about the fact that “there is nothing in our analysis which suggests that China’s strategic intentions in relation to Taiwan — nor its military preparations for achieving that objective by force — have in any way changed,” Rudd added, per a copy of the speech obtained by NatSec Daily. “In fact, they continue apace,” Rudd emphasized. Last month, a top U.S. commander estimated that an invasion could come as soon as 2027. Regardless of the threat China poses right now, the White House sees the past two weeks as a major foreign policy accomplishment for Biden. The partnerships are also a rare moment in which both progressives and conservatives largely agree on the steps necessary to keep China at bay. “While we want to provide deterrence, we want to show that we're not naive and we're not passive … find the right balance,” Rep. MARK TAKANO (D-Calif.) who met with Rudd last month told NatSec Daily, warning against “excessive hawkishness” that could provoke China.
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The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security. The most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter in the world is helping those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | AID TRUCK TROUBLE: Aid trucks trying to enter Gaza are struggling with long processing delays, creating a backlog of humanitarian aid, aid workers told our own ERIN BANCO and ALEX WARD. This week has seen about 400 assistance-carrying trucks a day entering the enclave from Egypt, the largest number since Israel began its counteroffensive against Hamas, according to Israeli government figures. But aid groups are still having difficulty accessing that aid, which is pooled in a restricted area on the Gazan side of the border overseen by Israel for vetting. Humanitarian organizations have to load that aid onto other trucks and can retrieve the cargo only at certain times of the day, according to four aid workers whose organizations work in Gaza. Yes, distributing humanitarian aid is difficult in any war zone. But the aid workers said Israel’s bureaucratic processing and rules around access are creating particularly large delays in Gaza. Israel has fired back at the aid groups’ allegations, saying the U.N. does not have the capacity to distribute all of the aid it has let through the border. The Washington Post’s NIHA MASIH reports that Israel is still restricting the contents of aid shipments, preventing life-saving medical equipment, hygiene products and even toys for children from entering the territory. Aid groups said the items blocked by Israeli authorities include chocolate croissants, field hospital boxes, cardiac catheters, and solar panels. PUTIN’S MISSILE MANIA: Russian forces launched a massive early-morning missile attack on Ukraine, battering the country’s energy infrastructure and triggering power outages, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. Russia targeted the regions of Odesa, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kyiv and Kharkiv, with most of the missiles heading towards the western city of Lviv. Ukrainian Air Defense Forces managed to shoot down 57 incoming aerial targets across the country, but a barrage of missiles still struck the eastern city of Kharkiv, according to the city’s mayor. The attack also destroyed the Trypilska power plant, which is the largest energy provider in the Kyiv region. The Russian military has increasingly homed in on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, targeting power plants and power lines with drone and missile strikes in recent weeks. MYANMAR IN ‘FREE FALL’: The United Nations is warning that the ongoing civil war in Myanmar is hollowing out the country’s middle class and driving its economy into “free fall,” according to the Washington Post’s REBECCA TAN. More than half the country’s population now lives under the poverty line of 76 cents a day. The country’s middle class has also shrunk by half since 2021, according to data from the United Nations Development Program released today. GDP has also contracted by 18 percent. The economic data is a sobering about-face for a country that, for the better part of a decade, was seen as a beacon of both economic opportunity and democratic revitalization in Asia following the release of then-dissident leader AUNG SAN SUU KYI from house arrest. At one point, Myanmar was the fastest-growing country in the world, but a coup by the country’s armed forces in 2021 triggered a new war between the central government and a coalition of ethnic and ideological insurgency groups. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | FACE TIME WITH TRUMP FRIENDS: European diplomats are scrambling to set up meetings with allies of former President DONALD TRUMP ahead of his possible return to office, CNN’s KYLIE ATWOOD reports. Diplomats are taking to the usual Washington hangouts — clubs, hotels, embassies and think tanks — for private meetings to discuss Trump’s potential policies and who he would bring to his administration. After gathering the intel, diplomats send “notes back to their European capitals where officials are hungry for any insights as they work to set up guard rails for NATO and try to ensure lasting support for Ukraine in its war with Russia,” CNN writes. “We are not that nervous because we know that with Trump it is all about relationships,” a veteran European diplomat who has been in DC since the Trump administration told CNN. “We are working on them, and we are telling the capital that the prime minister’s office needs to establish a personal connection with Trump right out of the gates.” Informal lists of former high-ranking Trump officials are floating around embassies, the outlet writes, with names including former Director of National Intelligence JOHN RATCLIFFE, Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO, national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN, and former VP MIKE PENCE’s top national security adviser KEITH KELLOGG. Read: Trump intensifies his grip on congressional GOP agenda by our own BURGESS EVERETT
| | 702 IN LIMBO: The fight to reauthorize federal surveillance powers got a surprise boost today from the general in charge of military logistics, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. Gen. JACQUELINE VAN OVOST, who heads U.S. Transportation Command, went to bat for the Section 702 program in a Senate Armed Services hearing today, arguing it "provides me [with] insights into adversary intent, capabilities and activities to contest our logistics flows." "The loss of this authority adds risk to my mission," Van Ovost told senators. Her comment comes as House GOP leaders work to break the impasse on the reauthorization of the controversial Section 702 surveillance program after suffering their fourth procedural defeat in six months, as our own KATHERINE TULLY-McMANUS reports. Last night, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and House Republican Whip TOM EMMER were meeting with some of the 19 Republicans who voted against advancing the reauthorization bill. It’s unclear if Johnson and Emmer’s meetings have worked to sway the GOP holdouts, who had criticized the bill for not banning the sale of consumer data to law enforcement. But a saving grace for the Louisiana Republican is emerging: Some Democrats are signaling their willingness to help Johnson get the reauthorization over the finish line. As our own NICHOLAS WU reports, Rep. JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said the idea came up “in a casual way” with Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES on Wednesday, though he added: “If the Republicans want help on the rule, they need to go to talk to Hakeem and Hakeem is a 'get it done' kind of guy, so I know he'll listen." DISINFO CAMPAIGN: The Chinese disinformation network known as Spamouflage has never gotten much traction on social media. Then, a small number of accounts started pretending to be American. On the latest POLITICO Tech podcast, senior analyst ELISE THOMAS from the Institute for Strategic Dialogue tells host STEVEN OVERLY how pro-Trump and anti-Biden tweets from a group with ties to the Chinese Communist Party may signal deeper concerns about 2024 election interference.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | RUSSIA’S REBUILDING FAST: Russia has replaced its heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine faster than anticipated, the top U.S. commander in Europe and NATO warned lawmakers today. As Connor reports, Gen. CHRISTOPHER CAVOLI, who heads up European Command and is also NATO’s supreme allied commander on the continent, made the case Thursday for long-stalled aid to Ukraine, telling senators that Kyiv “could lose” without further U.S. assistance. “The overall message I would give you is [Russia’s military has] grown back to what they were before,” Cavoli told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “They’ve got some gaps that have been produced by this war, but their overall capacity is very significant still, and they intend to make it go higher.” In a written statement, Cavoli also sounded the alarm that Russia’s army has even more manpower than when it launched its full invasion in February 2022. Moscow has also boosted its frontline troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000 soldiers, he noted. His warning comes the same day that Kyiv passed a new law aiming to replenish its military’s ranks, The New York Times’ MARC SANTORA reports. It’s the culmination of months of political debates over the topic, as drafting men — as young as 25 years old — is widely unpopular among civilians. But Kyiv sees the move as essential, as Russian assaults are expected to intensify in the summer. This law, however, aims to avoid public backlash, in part by including financial incentives for soldiers who enlist and families of those who are killed. But it also imposes penalties on men who try to evade service and doesn’t provide a timeline for when troops would be demobilized. ICYMI — France prepares for naval warfare against an enemy that ‘wants to destroy us’ by our own LAURA KAYALI
| | GOP CONTINUES IRAN CONCERNS: Republican senators are continuing to raise alarm bells about a potential attack by Tehran on Israel in the aftermath of a presumed Israeli airstrike that killed two top Iranian officials. In a post on X, Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) said that “Israel is under threat of imminent attack by Iran” and called on the White House to communicate to Iran’s leaders that “the joint American-Israeli retaliation for any attack will be swift and devastating.” Meanwhile, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote on X that Iran “wants to launch a large scale attack from their own territory” and that “what happens next is the most dangerous Middle East moment since 1973.”
| | ‘BODY BAGS’ IN HAITI: Some Haiti advocates are arguing that plans for a Kenyan-led multinational security mission to the island nation is a recipe for more deaths rather than more stability. “Please keep the Kenyans in Kenya,” MONIQUE CLESCA, an activist advocating for a Haitian-led solution to the nation’s chaos, said during a Council on Foreign Relations event Wednesday. Though there’s no surefire way to help stabilize Haiti, Clesca said the force isn’t large enough or well-equipped to fight the gangs: “Do not bring them to Haiti. They'll be going back in body bags … We do not want this.” Kenya is weighing a plan to send 1,000 security forces and Benin has said it would send 2,000 to secure the island, which has more than 11 million citizens. She was speaking to fellow panelist BRIAN NICHOLS, assistant secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs, who defended the mission: “What we're effectively looking at is the entire breadth of the Haitian political spectrum, trying to agree on something that's not easy.” Nichols added that he’s confident the multinational security mission — a plan that has been criticized as being insufficient — will deploy to Haiti, despite ongoing issues with the Kenyan government blocking the deployment.
| | — NICK MIKULA joined DARPA as its chief of legislative affairs. He was a senior director at Invariant.
| | | |   | | | | | — MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI, Foreign Affairs: Iraq needs a new kind of partnership with the United States — PHILIPPE LAGASSÉ and JUSTIN MASSIE, War on the Rocks: Don’t count on us: Canada’s military unreadiness — JENNIFER RUBIN, The Washington Post: A new tech privacy bill is a good start, though hardly sufficient
| | — House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, 9 a.m.: FY2025 budget request for missile defense and missile defeat programs — Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: Local perspectives: unlocking U.S.-Colombia ties on development and democracy — Henry L. Stimson Center, 3:30 p.m.: Prime Minister Kishida's visit to Washington: a way forward for U.S.-Japan relations Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, whose aggressive tactics concern Matt and Eric. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is building a nuclear-powered submarine to deter Heidi.
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