| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Philippe J. Fournier | | Presented by |  | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Kyle| Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today’s edition: → What we’re watching: The latest on Israel, what to expect in the federal budget, and a rare move in which Parliament calls an ArriveCAN contractor to answer before the House. → From the desk of 338: PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER looks at which parties have the least stable political bases right now. → Some press gallery dinner highlights. |  | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | | | 
Israeli Iron Dome air defense system launches to intercept missiles fired from Iran, Sunday, April 14. | Tomer Neuberg/AP | WORLD ON TENTERHOOKS — All eyes are on what Israel says, and does, next. Israel’s war cabinet met Sunday to mull its response after Iran launched a surprise attack over the weekend. It fired a stunning 300 drones and missiles over five hours. The attack failed. The world is recoiled in shock. Israel’s government has said it will hit back on its own terms, but is deliberating the how and when. — The background: G7 leaders released a statement Sunday condemning the attack, expressing support for Israel and saying the countries will work to “stabilize the situation and avoid further escalation.” Iran said it was retaliating for an attack on a consular building in Syria, and warned of more attacks if Israel retaliates. U.S. President JOE BIDEN told Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU the U.S. will not take participate in a counter-offensive. — Reverberations: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY called it a wake-up call for Washington to get its act together on supporting allies. The attacks have fueled questions about whether that means Congress’ long-stalled Ukraine aid package will get punted again as Speaker MIKE JOHNSON vows to move ahead with aid for Israel this week. — Here at home: Israel’s Ambassador to Canada IDDO MOED told CTV’s VASSY KAPELOS on Question Period the situation for his homeland is “very volatile.” “We are not tolerating such attacks, and Israel will not tolerate it.” Moed capped his TV appearance with praise for Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE for offering unequivocal support for his country. — Domestic spat extended: Parliamentarians fired off on social media over the developments. Conservative MELISSA LANTSMAN took an aggressive shot on social media at YA’ARA SAKS over the Liberals’positioning against arms exports to Israel. Foreign affairs expert ROLAND PARIS waded in, then revised his words. — Can the Middle East avoid all-out war? MICHAEL HIRSH considers the question in a piece for POLITICO Magazine. | | | | A message from Google: At Google, we know it can be tough keeping your family safe online. So we help make it easier by automatically turning on safety settings for kids and teens. With protections like filtering explicit content with SafeSearch, blocking age-restricted videos on YouTube, and more. To find online safety features for kids and teens, visit:g.co/families | | | BUDGET EVE — Welcome to the day before the Liberals’ penultimate pre-election budget. The pre-budget roadshow has had some ups and downs. → Up: It has earned praise for captivating attention and breathing new life into Liberals comms strategy, and even if planning has been a quick scramble at times, it’s getting Cabinet on the road to battlegrounds. → Down: Putting the PM on a campaign-style roadshow exposed him to campaign-style risk during media Q&As. He at one point delivered fodder to his rivals with an admission about temporary immigration levels being too high, even generating international news calling it a liberal own goal. The announcements competed with news coverage for the daily agenda at a busy time rather than dominating it, and left a lot of room for speculation about how to pay for it all. — Related reading: iPolitics’ MARCO VIGLIOTTI has a handy recap of the major announcements thus far. — Key comms question: What will the news-of-the-day story be on budget day, if there’s anything left to reveal? The back-of-the-book tax measures? The exact size of the budget and deficit? Freeland’s defense of the plan? The timelines? Maybe: A tax hike on the wealthy or large corporations. The government has ruled out raising taxes on the middle class, but the math suggests they’ll look to shore up the cash for their big announceables from somewhere. KARINA ROMAN of CBC News has “Experts predict tax hikes in budget as Trudeau government stretches to pay for its promises” — A few things to watch: → As RYAN TUMILTY of the National Post previews, Freeland is expected to spread the spending out,kicking a can of problems down the road. → Freeland said the forecast of a C$40-billion deficit won’t budge. But Reuters’ PROMIT MUKHERJEE writes experts are casting doubt Ottawa will hit its fiscal targets following all the goodies announced and speculation about sourcing new revenue to contain any fiscal fallout. → Economist MOSTAFA ASKARI of the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy in an interview with CPAC’s ANDREW THOMSON points to a key indicator that doesn’t get a lot of love: the primary balance, which is revenues with program spending subtracted, excluding debt charges. "That really is quite important for their guidepost, the debt-to-GDP ratio,” he said. “If you have a primary surplus, that makes it much easier to actually deal with that.” BAR NONE — It’s a rare move. GC Strategies’ KRISTIAN FIRTH, one of the contractors on the ArriveCAN app engulfed in scandal following a scathing audit,will be called to the official Bar of the House of Commons this week, to be reprimanded for failing to answer questions. And he’ll be quizzed again. “We're going to continue to force answers in this historic scandal,” said Conservative MP MICHAEL BARRETT, who called the event “extraordinary.” The grilling is scheduled for April 17 by unanimous consent in the House. — Historic tactic: It’s a literal bar — a brass rod at the front of the Commons chamber where the Sergeant-at-Arms sits. Since 1913, there have only been a few cases in which people were summoned. There were two instances, one in 1991 and another in 2002, where MPs tried to grab the ceremonial Mace and subsequently had to appear to be admonished by the Speaker or apologize. In 2021, IAIN STEWART, then head of PHAC,became the first non-MP in a century to be summoned to the bar to be reprimanded by then-Speaker ANTHONY ROTA over the government preventing Opposition parliamentarians access to Winnipeg lab documents. — Becoming a go-to: Earnscliffe’s SEAN MURPHY, former chief of staff in Conservative whip’s office,posted on Linkedin that future committee witnesses should take heed. “Now that they’ve dusted off this procedure twice in the last three years, we may expect it to be used again in the not-too-distant future,” he wrote. “Come prepared, bring receipts, don’t lie.”
| | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU meets with Belarus Opposition Leader SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA at 10:30 a.m. in Ottawa. He’s slated to address the Canadian Chamber of Commerce at 3 p.m., then at 6:15 p.m. speak at an Eid al-Fitr dinner hosted by the Ahmadiyya Muslim Jama’at.
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa for a Canadian finance minister tradition: buying a new pair of shoes, scheduled for 11:30 a.m.. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Québécois YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released their public schedules. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH speaks at the International Association of Fire Fighters conference. At 2 p.m., ahead of QP, he’ll outline his expectations for the budget. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY, Deputy Leader JONATHAN PEDNAULT and MP MIKE MORRICE will hold an 11:30 a.m. press conference to share their budget expectations. | | | | A message from Google:   | | | | | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | |
LIBERAL BASE JUMPS SHIP — A new Pallas Data poll suggests that of the main federal parties, the Conservative Party holds the highest proportion of voters from the last election.
— The largest blocs of “vote switchers”: 2021 Liberal and NDP voters fleeing to the Conservatives. — Strongest base: Among respondents who said they backed ERIN O’TOOLE’s CPC in 2021, 90 percent now support PIERRE POILIEVRE’s Conservatives. Only the Bloc Québécois comes close to such a high voter-retention rate with 85 percent. — Trailing far behind: Only 58 percent of 2021 Liberal voters still back JUSTIN TRUDEAU and the LPC, and merely two thirds (67 percent) of 2021 NDP voters still support JAGMEET SINGH. — The linchpin: According to Pallas, 21 percent of 2021 Liberal voters — one in five — now side with the Poilievre Conservatives. Given that the Liberals received 33 percent of the popular vote in 2021, one-fifth translates to a direct transfer of 6 to 7 points directly from the Liberals to the Conservatives. That’s the ball game for the Liberals if they can’t find a way to bring voters back. — That’s not all: Pallas also sees 15 percent of 2021 Liberal voters (about one in seven) now siding with the New Democrats. This should theoretically be great news for the NDP. But many 2021 NDP voters are also deserting, nearly making it a zero-sum game. — State of play: The latest 338Canada federal projection puts the Conservatives comfortably in majority territory at an average of 206 seats (in the 338-seat map). The Liberals stand as a distant second, with 72 seats on average. — Chop, chop, chop: More than half the current Liberal caucus would be defeated if the numbers transfer to the ballot boxes. In Quebec, the Bloc benefits from a combined rise of CPC support and an erosion of the Liberal base. The Bloc wins an average of 38 seats in the province. Meanwhile, the NDP slips again this week to an average of 20 seats, the lowest projection for the New Democrats in 338Canada’s tracker since the new year.
| | Talk of the town | | | | 
Parliamentary Press Gallery President and Canadian Press reporter Mia Rabson on Saturday night in Ottawa. | Spencer Colby, The Canadian Press | THE EMCEE'S EYE VIEW — Playbook's NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY co-emceed the annual Parliamentary Press Gallery dinner with National Post's CATHERINE LÉVESQUE. A few observations from the Sir John A Macdonald Building on Saturday: → The evening started with a short statement from Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU about Iran's missile attack on Israel. He left immediately after to track unfolding events. (No jokes for the PM for a second year in a row.) → The dinner fell behind schedule, because of course it did. Schmoozing beats punctuality on the Hill. The dance floor was still crammed when your co-emcee collapsed into an Uber sometime past 1 a.m. Some revelers even made it to the Bloomberg afterparty and fell asleep to birds chirping. → The late BRIAN MULRONEY closed the show — in a clip of a legendary gallery dinner moment in which the former PM told journalist PETER C. NEWMAN to, um, go f--k himself (a response to Newman's scathing biography). Mulroney delivered the bleeped expletive at the 2005 dinner via recorded video. That moment lives on YouTube. Saturday's show closed with the unbleeped version — a tribute to a man who sang his own funeral procession out of a church and who recently lay in state in the same room hosting the press gallery gala. Props to MICK GZOWSKI, the videographer who filmed Mulroney, for digging up the old tape and getting it digitized. Thanks also to the Mulroneys for being cool with the lack of bleep. An early part of the evening is available online,courtesy Global News. Spotted: ANITA ANAND among those tearing it up on the dance floor at SJAM, along with CHRISTOPHER NARDI (hey, those dance classes are paying off), PETER FARRELL, BEATRICE BRITNEFF and many more bodies who were difficult to identify due to the fog machine and laser lights. FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET appearing on the jumbotron after being name checked, seemingly missing the zingers lobbed at them by PPG President MIA RABSON. On the stage ... DON NEWMAN (of welcome to the broaaaaadcast fame) introducing ROB RUSSO who introduced CBC reporter ASHLEY BURKE who introduced this year’s CHARLES LYNCH award winner PAUL WELLS. Lighthearted jibes fired off through the night at: MARCO MENDICINO, CATHERINE TATE, MAX VALIQUETTE, SEBASTIAN SKAMSKI and many more politicos. Among the journalist’s dates: A host of PMO staff fresh off testimony at the foreign interference inquiry, including BRIAN CLOW, KATIE TELFORD and JEREMY BROADHURST. Other guests included JASON KENNEY, CHRYSTIA FREELAND, ANNE MCGRATH, KORY TENEYCKE, SCOTT REID, Sen. PETER BOEHM, Speaker GREG FERGUS and too many more to name without turning this email into a guest book. Are you a PMO joke-writer? Did you write a real zinger that ended up in the dustbin? We want to hear from you.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | | | 
Former U.S. President Donald Trump greets attendees during a campaign event in Schnecksville, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. | Joe Lamberti/AP | — Today is a historic day in American law and politics, as DONALD TRUMP becomes the first former president to go on criminal trial. ERICA ORDEN looks at key potential witnesses. — Top of POLITICO this morning: "US to Israel: Don’t do something you’ll regret." — Maclean’s has released its 2024 Power List. — Question from KEVIN LYNCH and PAUL DEEGAN in The Hill Times: “Where are today’s Mulroneys, Mazankowskis, Lumleys, Wilsons and Martins?” — Economist ARMINE YALNIZYAN joined “The Herle Burly” for what she later described as “a sprawling, unpredictable conversation … the kind that leaves you chewing on the thinking-out-loud ideas for days after.” — From our colleagues in Europe: Two months ahead of June’s Europe-wide election, Brussels is abuzz with European diplomats and officials warning that European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN is not a shoo-in for another five year term leading the EU’s executive. — Leading CBC News at this hour: "The dirty secret of the housing crisis? Homeowners like high prices." — “Herbert Hoover’s 1928 presidential campaign famously promised ‘a chicken for every pot’ and ‘a car in every backyard.’ That’s light beer by Poilievre’s standards,” CHRIS SELLEY writes in the National Post. | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Trudeau ratchets up housing plan.
In other news for Pro readers: — Google blocks some California news as fight over online journalism bill escalates. — World Bank chief manages pressure for climate cash. — RFK Jr. wants to poach climate voters from Biden, skeptics from Trump. — Social media is a threat to the French language, says France's PM. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to MP RANDEEP SARAI, retired Sen. SANDRA LOVELACE NICHOLAS, climate scientist KATHARINE HAYHOE, journo BEVERLY THOMSON, retired public servant and chancellor HUGUETTE LABELLE and carver and politician URIASH PUQIQNAK.
HBD to The Hub, which just turned 3. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: The Queen’s Gates, leaving Parliament Hill. U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN hosting Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH at Lornado for “a warm and substantive lunch.” At Toronto’s Union Station on Friday afternoon, U.K. High Commissioner SUSANNAH GOSHKO joining the queue to catch a Friday afternoon train back to Ottawa … former PCO clerk MICHAEL WERNICK making a beeline to say hello to someone in line. DAVID COLETTO of Abacus Data teasing unconventional polling questions coming out this week: Would Trudeau or Poilievre be better at solving an escape room? Movers and shakers: ANNIE BOUDREAU has been named Comptroller General of Canada. She replaces ROCH HUPPÉ, who has retired. PAUL HALUCHA, deputy secretary to the Cabinet (clean growth), Privy Council Office, has added deputy minister of public lands and housing to his responsibilities. Media mentions: JOAN HOLLOBON, the Globe and Mail’s medical reporter from 1959 to 1985, died earlier this month at age 104. In an obituary ANDRÉ PICARD writes: “The long-time reporter helped usher in an era when medical stories became a mainstay of daily journalism, driven by an explosion of scientific advances and burgeoning public interest.” Farewells: “If there is one thing that should never change in politics, it’s the teamwork,” PERCY MOCKLER said in his final speech in the Senate. “Like a hockey team, each caucus and political party plays wearing its own team colors. However, the logo on all their jerseys is the Canadian maple leaf.” Read his speech and tributes here. | | ON THE HILL | |
→ Find House committees here.
→ Keep track of Senate committees here. — Canada Carbon Rebate payment day. ICYMI: The government launched a rebate estimator tool. 8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada will release its February survey of manufacturing and wholesale trade numbers. 11 a.m. NDP MP BONITA ZARRILLO hosts a newser in the National Press Theatre for Dense Breasts Canada and the Coalition for Responsible Healthcare Guidelines to raise concerns about decisions made by the Canadian task force on preventive health care. 11 a.m. The government’s defense policy update will be the topic du jour at the House national defense committee. Defense Minister BILL BLAIR will be in the hot seat. 11 a.m. The House industry committee will continue its study of Bill C-27, the committee’s 24th meeting on the topic since September. 11 a.m. The House justice committee will meet to study NDP MP PETER JULIAN’s C-273. 11 a.m. The House operations committee will study rural access to Canada Post. 3:30 p.m. Canadian Council on Africa President and CEO NOLA KIANZA and Canada-Africa Chamber of Business President GARRETH BLOOR will be witnesses to the House foreign affairs committee’s study on Canada’s approach to Africa. 3:30 p.m. Canada’s opioid crisis is on the agenda at the House health committee. 3:30 p.m. Union leaders representing Canada's Building Trades Unions, Teamsters Canada, United Steelworkers Union, Canadian Union of Public Employees and United Steelworkers Local 1944 will participate in the House human resource committee’s study on Bill C-58. 4 p.m. The Senate national security committee will hear from CSE head of Canadian Centre for Cyber Security SAMI KHOURY; Global Affairs Canada’s International Cyber Policy Director KELLY ANDERSON; and DisinfoWatch Director MARCUS KOLGA. 5 p.m. The Senate human rights committee will study forced global displacement. 5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee will study matters relating to minority-language health services. 6:30 p.m. Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, CSIS Director DAVID VIGNEAULT and the PM’s National Security and Intelligence Advisor NATHALIE DROUIN are on the witness roster at the House Canada-China committee study of bilateral relations. We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients . | | TRIVIA | |
Friday's answer: The Parliamentary Press Gallery Dinner went on the record in 1977.
Props to MARCEL MARCOTTE, JENN KEAY and ROBERT MCDOUGALL. Today’s question: Name the sister ships of the Titanic. Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Correction: Friday’s Playbook contained an error about the most sponsored trips taken by an MP. Conservative MP GARNETT GENUIS accepted four last year followed by Liberal MP JUDY SGRO who accepted three separate trips.
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