WHAT HAPPENS IF DEMS GET A MAJORITY MID-CONGRESS With all the recent resignations in Congress, Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority has become so thin that if just a handful of Republicans leave Congress before November, he could be left with a Democratic majority. Right now, that magic number is four GOP lawmakers — at least until four special elections in the next few months tip margins more in the GOP’s favor. And while Republicans likely would not resign to that tipping point, this Congress has prompted a large number to willingly head for the exits, and various personal issues are always a factor in a body of 435 people. So we had two key questions: What would it mean if there were more Democrats than Republicans in Congress? Could Democrats trigger a so-called motion to vacate the speaker and install a Speaker Hakeem Jeffries? We know it’s unlikely, but indulge us in the thought experiment. If Democrats secure a true majority before the end of the 118th Congress, it would be the first time control of the House has ever flipped in the middle of a congressional term. (It happened in the Senate in 2001.) That means the leadership situation is uncharted, but there is some doubt that a motion to vacate would even be needed. Under the rules hashed out by then-speaker hopeful Kevin McCarthy at the start of this Congress, any member from either party can force a vote to remove the speaker. But some Congress-watchers think it wouldn’t necessarily come to that, since the speaker’s power would be neutered without a true majority. Matt Glassman, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, told Inside Congress that he could see Johnson acknowledging that Republicans don’t hold the majority and to resign the speakership. “He might say — just like Boehner did — ‘I'm gonna resign the office pending an election of my successor,’” Glassman suggested. Resigning would avoid another speaker pro tempore nightmare (flashback to Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R-N.C.) angry gavel). Boehner, of course, oversaw the election of a successor from within his conference; he did not hand his gavel to a Democrat. Glassman added that a resolution to vacate the speakership once the GOP has already lost the majority would be “unnecessarily antagonistic,” assuming Johnson doesn’t make swift transition plans. But then again, this has been a congressional session like no other. What a party flip really leaves in flux is the inner workings of Congress, like control and operation of committees and what big-swing legislative opportunities Democrats would actually have, given the realities of a slim Senate majority. The big caveats to this thought experiment: There are two critical pressure points that stack up to a very strong case that a party flip and sudden Jeffries speakership won’t come to pass: The upcoming special elections and the reality that no one wants to be the retirement who actually tips the scale. The Specials: There are four special elections stacked up over the next two months that are expected to slightly replenish Republicans' severely depleted majority. Just one of the races — next week’s NY-26 to replace former Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins — is the only one tilted in the Democrats’ favor. The rest, in California, Ohio and Colorado, are pretty solidly red and are expected to send three new Republicans to join the House GOP. The Tipping Point: It is hard to imagine a level of frustration with serving in the 118th Congress that would prompt a GOP lawmaker to be the final retirement that would flip control of the House, giving Democrats total control over Congress and the White House. Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow at Brookings who studies Congress, said she doubted that “a voluntary act by a member of Congress” would do it. Even a sweet compensation package from Palantir or a performing arts center wouldn’t drive a member to take the heat for handing Democrats the keys and the gavel. “I think it would have to be something almost catastrophic,” Reynolds said. — Katherine Tully-McManus, with assist from Daniella Diaz
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