| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | ‘TAKE A BREATH’ — “US to Israel: Don’t do something you’ll regret,” by Nahal Toosi and Alexander Ward: “U.S. officials expect Israel to respond in some fashion to Saturday’s strikes, but in both public and private ways they are taking steps they hope will convince Israel to choose a limited response as opposed to an all-out armed counter-attack. … ‘We’re advising them to take a breath before responding,’ said a U.S. official familiar with the Middle East.”
|  And internal poll by Donald Trump's campaign found abortion capturing voters’ attention in the crucial swing state of Arizona — even more so than the border and immigration. | Yuki Iwamura/AP | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK I: ARIZONANS TUNE INTO ABORTION — A survey conducted by DONALD TRUMP’s top pollster, TONY FABRIZIO, found abortion capturing voters’ attention in the crucial swing state of Arizona — even more so than the border and immigration. The internal poll, obtained exclusively by Playbook, was conducted from April 7-11 — a week when the abortion issue dominated the news, between Trump’s April 8 statement insisting abortion rights should be left up to the states and the April 9 Arizona Supreme Court decision reinstating an 1864 ban on the procedure. The Trump campaign asked 400 likely general-election voters in Arizona the following question: “Over the past couple of days, what ONE story about politics or world affairs has captured your attention enough that you are following that story?” Thirteen percent cited “Border/illegal immigration/open border,” while 16% cited “Abortion/women’s rights” or “Arizona abortion ruling/abortion ban.” The war in Gaza was tied with abortion as the top issue. The Trump campaign is viewing this as positive news. Their takeaway is that “Arizona voters are NOT preoccupied with the Abortion ruling, it is largely Democrats” — pointing to the 24% of Democrats who cited the Arizona news versus 6% of independents and 5% of Republicans. (Those figures were even lower for abortion rights generally.) Read the memo And when Arizonans were asked about their top voting issue in the presidential race, abortion was less salient. The top issue for persuadable voters was inflation (22%), followed by taxes, government spending and debt (14%), protecting democracy (13%), honesty in government (13%), and immigration and border security (12%). Only 3% cited abortion. But the new Fabrizio poll shows that within that small universe of persuadable voters, abortion was breaking through as an issue last week, with 7% of those Arizona voters saying they were following the abortion story closely while none said they were following immigration closely. The survey also shows President JOE BIDEN improving by 1 net point in a head-to-head matchup against Trump in Arizona. Fabrizio’s March poll for the WSJ showed the race at Trump 47%, Biden 42%. The new poll shows it at Trump 48%, Biden 44%. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK II: GALLEGO ON ATTACK — While the Trump campaign is spinning that abortion’s importance in Arizona is exaggerated, the Senate campaign of Democratic Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO is taking the opposite view. Gallego is out today with a new digital ad that strings together the many instances of his opponent KARI LAKE endorsing the overturning of Roe v. Wade and praising the 1864 Arizona abortion ban. Like Trump, Lake last week distanced herself from the court decision reinstating it and said she wanted pregnant women in Arizona to have a “choice.” DAY 1 OF THE COURTHOUSE CAMPAIGN — Today will be a tale of two Trumps. Outside … On the sidewalks and in the hallways of New York County Criminal Court in lower Manhattan, Trump will have ready access to cameras and the ability to rail against Judge JUAN MERCHAN and DA ALVIN BRAGG. He can also just as easily ignore the hush money case and stick to campaign messaging during his arrival and departures and lunch breaks. He also has plenty of other familiar nearby locales to use as campaign stages. The swing state of Pennsylvania, where he held a rally Saturday night, is close. His golf club in New Jersey is across the river, and the one in Westchester, where he played yesterday, is just north of the city. His longtime Fifth Avenue home, where he slept last night, is a short motorcade ride up the FDR. As one Trump adviser told Playbook yesterday, “Being stuck in Manhattan four days a week will not affect his ability to communicate.” Inside … Within the confines of the 15th-floor courtroom, which is universally described by reporters as “dingy,” Trump will be in a far more controlled environment. Merchan has so far kept Trump on a short leash, quickly dismissing dilatory motions and issuing, then expanding, a gag order. But with no cameras inside, even the most salacious details about the hush money plot that emerge from such highly anticipated but low profile witnesses as HOPE HICKS, DAVID PECKER, and MADELEINE WESTERHOUT will struggle to compete with Trump’s ability to keep himself center frame. HOW VOIR DIRE WILL WORK: We will learn a few things today that help frame the case. Merchan will introduce Trump and his lawyers and Bragg and his prosecutors to potential jurors. He will explain the charges against the former president using pre-written language (“The allegations are in substance, that Donald Trump falsified business records to conceal an agreement with others to unlawfully influence the 2016 presidential election”). He will give an estimate for the length of the trial, tell jurors they can have Passover off, and read a list of the witnesses and other people who might be mentioned during the trial. The real action today and this week will come as the jurors answer a long list of questions in open court that was heavily litigated by the two sides before the trial. Merchan disallowed any inquiries about party registration or whom potential jurors supported politically. But he allowed 42 questions, often with several subparts, about their neighborhood, education level, marital status, who they work for, their hobbies, what news sources they consume and the social media sites they use, along with more particular ones about their affiliations or connections with Trump. Officially neither side is allowed to strike a potential juror strictly because of their political beliefs. Trump’s lawyer conceded this point when he was trying to win the right to ask about party affiliation. “Of course the mere fact that someone is a Republican or a Democrat does not give either party, I would submit, the right to strike for cause,” he said. But Trump’s jury consultants will use demographics to hone in on potential fans: “The former president’s lawyers,” the NYT reports, “are hoping to spot sympathizers and will focus on younger Black men and white working-class men.” THE DELAY GAME: Merchan has mentioned there could be “thousands” of potential jurors to sift through, so this could take a while. Former Trump consigliere and current key witness MICHAEL COHEN told us last week that he sees voir dire as Trump’s opportunity to slow things down. “They are going to pull out every stop they can to try to demonstrate to the judge that they cannot get a fair jury — that they can not get a fair trial here in New York,” Cohen said. Related reads: “How to pick a jury that can judge Donald Trump,” by Kyle Cheney … “Trump’s hush money trial strategy: Deny, delay and denigrate,” by WaPo’s Devlin Barrett, Josh Dawsey, Perry Stein and Mark Berman … “Trump Tried Everything to Avoid a Criminal Trial. The Day Has Arrived,” by Corinne Ramey and Joe Palazzolo Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: Essential pro-growth tax policies have expired or are being phased out, making it more difficult for U.S. businesses to invest at home, create American jobs and compete globally. The House has passed legislation to stop these tax increases on U.S. job creators. Now, it’s up to the Senate to act. It’s time to strengthen America’s global competitiveness. Pass the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act. Learn more. | | | HAPPY APRIL 15 — “Tax Day reveals a major split in how Joe Biden and Donald Trump would govern,” by AP’s Josh Boak and Jill Colvin: “The presidential candidates have conflicting ideas about how much to reveal about their own finances and the best ways to boost the economy through tax policy.” MORE FROM THE MIDDLE EAST — The aftermath of Iran’s weekend strikes on Israel continue to play out this morning. Biden himself is keeping a low profile, Jonathan Lemire and Alex Ward report, as he leads the quiet campaign to contain any potential Israeli retaliation that could send the conflict spiraling out of control. Notably, the White House opted not to have Biden deliver a televised address on the attacks: “Putting the president behind the Resolute Desk turns up the temperature,” one official said. “That’s something to ideally avoid.” Among the implications that Washington policymakers must consider are thousands of American troops stationed in the region, Lara Seligman and Paul McLeary report. While none of the Iranian drones or missiles appeared to target U.S. forces, “the size and scale of the U.S. response to an Iranian attack is far above anything seen previously in the decades-long standoff between Washington and Tehran,” and further escalation could put them in harm’s way. Meanwhile, more details are emerging about the Iranian attack and how a coalition of Israeli, U.S. and Arab forces countered it. “Israel’s vaunted missile defense systems ramped up to engage the munitions as they were launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen,” WaPo’s Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton write. “But they were flanked by U.S. and British fighter jets, a Patriot missile defense system manned by U.S. troops in Iraq and U.S. destroyers off the coast of Israel, each ready to assist.” The result was a smashing military success, but it also raised troubling questions. “Whether Israel and its supporters can replicate that performance under the conditions of an all-out war — this weekend’s salvo from Iran, clearly telegraphed in advance, was the opposite of a surprise attack — is an open question, as is Israel’s ability to defend itself without outside help,” WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov writes. And his colleague Michael R. Gordon offers another sobering analysis — and headline — amid the crash effort to prevent an escalation: “Biden Wanted to Avoid a Regional War. Now He’s Got One.”
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up RAMONA MANGLONA’s judicial nomination, with a cloture vote at 5:30 p.m. The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up several bills, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- So much for appliance week: This weekend’s attacks on Israel prompted House GOP leaders to scrap their plans to spend the week passing messaging bills opposing Biden administration energy-efficiency standards. Instead, a host of tough-on-Iran bills have been fast-tracked to the floor. But the biggest question of the week is far from settled: What to do about funding for Israel (and, by necessary extension, Ukraine)? Johnson said on Fox News yesterday he’s “looking at all the options” and repeated some previously floated ideas. But much will depend on how his conference reacts, starting with a conference meeting this evening. More from Olivia Beavers, Connor O’Brien and Joe Gould
- This is the week the impeachment trial of DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS finally begins — right? The current plan is for House Republican managers to walk the articles over tomorrow, with juror-senators being sworn in Wednesday and a quick dismissal vote possible anytime after that. But the timing has always been dictated by what might be most politically advantageous for the GOP, and so you should take nothing for granted: One senior House Republican source suggested to Fox News reporter Chad Pergram that the weekend attacks on Israel could affect the timing.
- The other big thing the Senate has to juggle this week is a potential extension of spy authorities for U.S. intelligence agencies which are set to expire Friday. They won’t have much time to do it: While the House passed an extension Friday, it still has to take a procedural vote before the bill can get to the Senate. And with the Mayorkas trial in flux and certain civil-libertarian senators likely to object to swift passage, a short lapse is so-called Section 702 powers can’t be ruled out.
At the White House Biden will have bilateral meetings with Iraqi PM MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI at noon and Czech PM PETR FIALA at 3 p.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel from LA to Las Vegas, where she’ll take part in a conversation about the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act. Later in the afternoon, she’ll make a campaign stop to help out with the signature-gathering effort for a Nevada abortion rights ballot measure, CBS’ Nidia Cavazos scooped, before returning to LA.
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|  Former Trump trade chief Robert Lighthizer sees a weaker dollar as a means to bolster American exports. | Anna Moneymaker/Pool/AFP via Getty Images | THE TRADE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — If he returns to the White House, Trump might move to devalue the U.S. dollar, with major ramifications for the global economy, Gavin Bade reports this morning. ROBERT LIGHTHIZER and other Trump advisers are in active discussions about the idea, which could reshape commerce around the world. Lighthizer and other proponents see a weaker dollar as a means to bolster American exports, since they’d now be cheaper for other countries, and shrink the U.S. trade deficit. But the financial world would balk at currency manipulation, and some sources think it won’t go anywhere if Trump taps a Wall Street-friendly Treasury secretary. “[W]eakening the dollar could have other far-reaching consequences, from sending consumer prices for imported products soaring, to inviting retaliation from other countries and threatening the dollar’s role as world reserve currency, which would undermine U.S. sanctions on adversaries like Iran and Russia,” Gavin writes. “The potential policy shift during a second Trump term could further fragment the global economy.” THE CLIMATE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — AL GORE weighed in on what a second Trump term could mean for the fight against climate change, our colleague Ry Rivard writes in. “Technological tailwinds” will continue to push the “sustainability revolution,” Gore told reporters after a Saturday speech in NYC. “But our chance to accelerate that progress to the levels that are necessary to really solve this crisis would be taken away if an anti-climate president came into office.” 2024 WATCH
|  A group of major news organizations today urged candidates to commit to doing this year's presidential debates on camera. | Morry Gash-Pool/Getty Images | UP FOR DEBATE — With the future of this year’s presidential debates in doubt, a group of major news organizations including the AP, USA Today, C-SPAN and the big five TV news networks today urged candidates to commit to doing them on camera, NYT’s Michael Grynbaum reports. “General election debates have a rich tradition in our American democracy,” the media outlets wrote in their letter, saying that televised debates between the candidates are essential in such a politically polarized society. The Commission on Presidential Debates has already scheduled three presidential debates for September and October. Neither Trump nor Biden participated in any official primary debates this cycle, and Trump withdrew from one against Biden in 2020. This year, Biden is the one sounding uncertain about the commission and its ability to make Trump follow the rules. That the news outlets would all weigh in together highlights how tenuous the debate plans remain this cycle, Grynbaum notes. But the Trump campaign said yesterday that it agreed with the letter and that the former president is eager to debate, Fox News’ Brooke Singman scooped. “I would fully accept any debate, anywhere, anytime, anyplace,” Trump told her. More top reads:
- The split screen: “As Trump goes on trial, Biden goes to Pennsylvania,” by NBC’s Carol Lee, Kristen Welker and Mike Memoli: “Biden’s counterprogramming itinerary includes three days of economy-focused events in Scranton, Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia area, while his campaign keeps a spotlight on Trump’s position on abortion.”
MORE POLITICS DEMOCRATS’ ETERNAL DREAM — “Is Texas About to Turn Latinos Into Single-Issue Voters?” by The Atlantic’s Jack Herrera: “Its new immigration law resembles other ‘show me your papers’ measures that cost the GOP Latino voters.”
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Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) will jump into a major challenge in this year’s fight over federal spending. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | DIAMONDS AND COLE — The new House Appropriations chair, Rep. TOM COLE (R-Okla.), will jump into a major challenge in this year’s fight over federal spending, Jennifer Scholtes and Caitlin Emma report this morning. The 74-year-old Cole, who’s the longest-serving Native American in history, is a blast from the pre-Trump GOP: friendly to earmarks, the media and even some Democrats. And now he’ll have to walk the tightrope between typical bipartisan negotiations to avoid a government shutdown and acclimating to the MAGA culture warriors who want to enact drastic change in appropriations. “There’s got to be broader agreement inside the Republican conference to do this thing,” including compromising with the Biden White House and Democratic Senate, Cole says. “And that’s difficult.” But he’s also evinced an ability to tack to the Trumpist line sometimes, including voting against certifying the 2020 election. “In a Trumpified GOP that’s seen many throwback legislators call it quits rather than herd the cats of the House Republican Conference,” Jennifer and Caitlin write, “Cole stands out simply for sticking around.” JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS WATCH — “Can homeless people be fined for sleeping outside? A rural Oregon city asks the US Supreme Court,” by AP’s Claire Rush in Grants Pass: “The town’s case, set to be heard April 22, has broad implications for how not only Grants Pass, but communities nationwide address homelessness, including whether they can fine or jail people for camping in public.” MEDIAWATCH ANOTHER OUTLET IN TROUBLE — “The Intercept is running out of cash,” by Semafor’s Max Tani: “Now spun off from [PIERRE] OMIDYAR’s First Look Media, The Intercept is losing roughly $300,000 a month, is on track to have a balance of less than a million dollars by November — and could be completely out of cash by May 2025 … The Intercept’s CEO, ANNIE CHABEL, told Semafor in an interview this week that those projections were a worst-case scenario … [T]ensions between the outlet’s star reporters, its founders, and its four-person nonprofit board are threatening to unravel it.” TOP-ED — “Democracy Dies Behind Paywalls,” by Richard Stengel in The Atlantic: “The case for making journalism free — at least during the 2024 election.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “China’s attacks on U.S. infrastructure aren’t going anywhere,” by Axios’ Sam Sabin: “Nearly a year after the U.S. government first named and shamed an ongoing Chinese hacking campaign against American infrastructure, top cybersecurity leaders say the threat is still as palpable as ever. … China’s Volt Typhoon group has displayed a persistence that's rare among nation-state hackers.” WAR IN UKRAINE FROM RUSSIA, WITH LOVE — “Luxury yachts and other myths: How Republican lawmakers echo Russian propaganda,” by NBC’s Dan De Luce and Syedah Asghar: “Some of the arguments, distortions and falsehoods spread by Russia have taken root, mostly among right-wing pro-Trump outlets and Republican politicians.”
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Josh Hawley is getting rare financial support from the Teamsters. Dana White has become a key ally for Donald Trump. BOOK CLUB — Michael Sobolik today is publishing “Countering China’s Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance” ($21.95). A senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and a Ted Cruz alum, he argues that the U.S. today is losing a new cold war against the Chinese Communist Party and offers a road map to undercut the Belt and Road Initiative. MEDIA MOVE — Marissa Martinez is now a politics editor at Apple News. She previously was an agriculture reporter at POLITICO. NEW THIS MORNING — Former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley will join the Hudson Institute as Walter P. Stern chair. TRANSITIONS — Edie Guy is now senior program manager of the Presidential Administration Academy of Project 2025 at the Heritage Foundation. She most recently was comms director for Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), and is a Trump OMB alum. … Combiz Abdolrahimi is joining ServiceNow as VP for the global public sector. He previously was global emerging technology and innovation leader at Deloitte, and is a Treasury Department alum. … … Cara Rich is now chief growth officer for global and Americas at SEC Newgate. She most recently was chief growth officer for North America at BCW Global. … Tara Burchmore, a TechCongress fellow, is joining Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-N.Y.) office as an economic policy fellow. She previously ran Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ (R-Wyo.) Financial Innovation Caucus. ENGAGED — Maria Giannopoulos, director of marketing and digital for the 2024 Republican National Convention, and James Hunt, director of government relations for the Bramer Group, got engaged Saturday at the Netherlands Carillon overlooking D.C. They met in 2017 at a Cypriot Embassy event for the 43rd anniversary of Turkey invading Cyprus. Pic … SPOTTED: Amy Hasenberg-Elliott and Josh Elliott, Corinne Day, Athina Lawson, Greg Steele and Lemonia Mavrophilipos, Sam Markstein, Courtney Mattison, Krista Carter, Noelle Ekonomou, Kalliopi Vlastos and Lauren Bosler. BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Elisse Walter HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) … Sarah Bloom Raskin … Pete Rouse … The Hill’s Amie Parnes … Ray Locker … Pat Devney of Rep. Ann McLane Kuster’s (D-N.H.) office … Leslie Shedd of the House Foreign Affairs GOP … Jamie Geller … POLITICO’s Liz McCormick, Devyn Rorie, Alex Samsel and Suzanne Lynch … Rishi Banerjee … Dana Gansman … FERC’s Mary O’Driscoll … Max Neuberger … Heather Joy Thompson … Lisbeth Lyons of Women in Print Alliance … Nina Rees of the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools … Bloomberg’s John Harney … Jason Lamote … Asher MacDonald … former Rep. Howard Berman (D-Calif.) … Visa’s Cheyenne Hopkins … Ann Miller … Robyn Swirling … Kate Bernard … Jaimey Sexton … SEC Newgate Group’s Cara Rich … Troy Endicott … Tom Rosenstiel … Kathryn Garza … Alex Miller Murphy Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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Unfortunately, key tax policies have expired or are being phased out, making it more difficult for U.S. businesses to invest at home, create American jobs and compete globally. The House has passed legislation to stop these tax increases on U.S. job creators. Now, it’s up to the Senate to act.
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