BURNS’ HOT TAKE: CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS offered a stark warning to lawmakers on Capitol Hill: If you don’t send aid to Ukraine now, they could lose the war by the end of the year. Speaking at an event at the George W. Bush Presidential Center today, Burns urged lawmakers to pass the supplemental that would dedicate billions to Ukraine’s war efforts. “With the boost that would come from military assistance, both practically and psychologically, Ukrainians are entirely capable of holding their own through 2024 and puncturing Putin’s arrogant view that time is on his side,” he said. But if that doesn’t make it through Congress, “the picture is a lot more dire,” he said. “There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could essentially dictate the terms of a political settlement." It’s perhaps the strongest warning from a senior administration official yet regarding the war, coming as officials in Kyiv warn that a looming Russian offensive in the summer — which would see massive waves of troops invading Ukraine — could overwhelm Kyiv’s struggling soldiers. RAFAH TALKS: The White House and Israeli officials held another tense meeting about a potential Rafah operation today, a sign that Iran’s attack isn’t stopping talks over Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas, our own ALEX WARD reports. In the virtual session, senior leaders were expected to discuss how to target Hamas’ roughly 3,000 fighters in Rafah while protecting the city’s 1.4 million Palestinians, a senior Biden administration official and Israeli official told Alex. Attendees included national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, his Israeli counterpart, TZACHI HANEGBI, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs RON DERMER and representatives from the Israel Defense Forces and Israeli security agencies. Pentagon officials Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy MELISSA DALTON, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy DAN SHAPIRO and Maj. Gen. JOSEPH MCGEE, joint staff vice director for strategy plans and policy, were also at the meeting, DOD Press Secretary Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told our own LARA SELIGMAN. The initial plan had been to hold the discussion in person in Washington, but Iran’s weekend attack postponed a trip. ‘LIMITED’ ISRAELI RESPONSE? U.S. officials are still waiting to find out whether and how Israel is going to respond to Iran’s attack. They believe the response will be “limited in scope” — but only in the sense that it won’t be on par with the Iranian assault, which included hundreds of missiles and drones and was intended to cause mass casualties, a U.S. official told Lara. One option is for Israel to continue its “shadow war” against Iran, for example taking out an Iranian military official in Syria, and publicly call that the retaliation, the official said. But that campaign has been going on for years, and such a response is not likely to spark a regional war. Each day that goes by, the less likely it is that Israel will retaliate in a major way, the official said. NOT ENOUGH AID: More aid has been entering Gaza since the U.S. called on Israel to ramp it up after the World Central Kitchen strike, but relief workers told The Wall Street Journal’s MARGHERITA STANCATI, ABEER AYYOUB and ANAT PELED that it’s not enough to prevent famine. Freshly baked bread and affordable vegetables are now available in the northern part of the territory for the first time in months, and Israel opened up another crossing in the north directly from Israel to allow more trucks to enter. But the problem “is not just about food,” ANDREA DE DOMENICO, who heads the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Gaza and the West Bank, told WSJ. “It’s much bigger than simply bringing in flour and baking loaves of bread or pita. It is much more complex.” About 185 aid trucks have entered Gaza from two southern crossings in the first half of April, up from 157 aid trucks in the two weeks prior, a U.N. tracker found. NEW IRAN SANCTIONS: The Biden administration unveiled a slate of new sanctions against Iran in the wake of its strike against Israel over the weekend, our own MICHAEL STRATFORD reports. The sanctions, issued in coordination with the U.K. government, target Iran’s production of drones, its steel industry and automotive companies that supply the country’s military. They come as the House mulls additional restrictions on Iranian oil sales as part of Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s package of foreign aid bills. As E&E News’ MANUEL QUIÑONES and ANDRES PICON report (for Pros!), the appropriations package unveiled yesterday incorporated the “Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act,” passed earlier this week that would make it harder for China to buy Iranian oil. It also included the "Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act," which would sanction people and institutions that help Iran trade its oil. That bill passed the full House in November. BLINKEN’S BACKLOG: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN hasn’t acted on a months-old proposal by a State panel to disqualify multiple Israeli military and police units — accused of committing human rights abuses mostly in the West Bank before Oct. 7 — from receiving U.S. aid, ProPublica’s BRETT MURPHY reported Wednesday. “This process is one that demands a careful and full review,” a State spokesperson told the outlet. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
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