| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | FIRST-PERSON ACCOUNT — “Why Ukraine is losing the war with Russia,” by Jamie Dettmer in Kyiv: “Just ask a Ukrainian soldier if he still believes the West will stand by Kyiv ‘for as long as it takes.’ That pledge rings hollow when it’s been four weeks since your artillery unit last had a shell to fire, as one serviceman complained from the front lines. It’s not just that Ukraine’s forces are running out of ammunition. “Western delays over sending aid mean the country is dangerously short of something even harder to supply than shells: the fighting spirit required to win. As I discovered while reporting from Ukraine over the past month, morale among troops is grim, ground down by relentless bombardment, a lack of advanced weapons, and losses on the battlefield.”
|  House Speaker Mike Johnson is struggling to navigate the fury on the hard right over his his long-awaited foreign aid plan. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | MEANWHILE IN WASHINGTON — First things first: There’s still no bill. Going on 36 hours after Speaker MIKE JOHNSON announced his long-awaited foreign aid plan, it still has not been translated into legislative text and released for public review. It’s the latest troubling sign as Johnson struggles to navigate the fury on the hard right over his plan to set up separate votes on aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, as well as TikTok divestiture and other sundry issues, then package them up and send them to the Senate for final passage. Things went off the rails early yesterday, when Rep. THOMAS MASSIE (R-Ky.) announced in a morning conference meeting that he’d join Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) in calling for Johnson’s removal. Some Republicans think it’s all a bluff. But note that Johnson isn’t acting that way: He spent much of his Tuesday huddled with the conservatives who are trying to walk back his plan, which can only succeed with Democratic buy-in. The hard-liners want border security measures and offsets that won’t pass muster across the aisle. When and if a bill appears, we’ll know if he caved. But know this: If Johnson wants the bill to make it to JOE BIDEN’s desk — and we’re told he does — he’ll have to hold firm and face up to a potential motion to vacate. About that ouster threat … We’ve written plenty already about how Democrats are open to saving Johnson’s skin in a way they weren’t for KEVIN McCARTHY. Behind the scenes, discussions are picking up about what exactly that looks like — and whether it’s sustainable through the rest of the 118th Congress. Should the motion be called, the expectation is that GOP leadership will move to table it (i.e., kill it dead). Rather than have Democrats put up a bunch of yes votes to save the speaker — clearly not a good look for Johnson — there’s talk about having them “take a walk” and not show up to vote, thus bringing the threshold for passage down to where rank-and-file Republicans could swamp Johnson's GOP critics. We asked a few Republicans if they thought this would work — not only procedurally, but politically: Could he continue to lead in such a situation? “I really don’t think it changes a whole lot,” Rep. GARY PALMER (R-Ala.) told us yesterday, arguing that it’s just “a handful of people who want to use [the motion to vacate] as a weapon” and that the rest of the conference could tolerate it so long as Johnson doesn’t offer Democrats any special concessions. But Rep. BLAKE MOORE (R-Utah), the conference vice chair, wasn’t so sure. While he told us he hopes it doesn’t happen, he suggested Johnson’s critics might try again and again, grinding the House to a halt. Having Dems no-show “gets through one round of it,” he said. “Are there subsequent rounds? Are we doing the motion every week, every single day we’re in session? … We were in unknown territory last fall; we’d be in completely unknown territory again with that. I don’t anticipate something like that being sustainable.” Related reads: “Revolt against Johnson opens up fresh talk over House GOP leadership’s future,” by CNN’s Melanie Zanona, Annie Grayer and Manu Raju … “House Democrats keep options open as effort to oust Johnson grows,” by CNN’s Lauren Fox and Kristin Wilson DON’T CALL IT A ‘TRIAL’ — It might well become the shortest impeachment trial in American history. But just how short will today’s proceedings against DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS actually be? Party leaders spent yesterday in negotiations trying to come up with a process both sides can agree to. The back-and-forth boiled down to this: If Democrats allowed a few hours of floor debate, would Republicans hold back on their procedural grenades so the chamber can get the whole thing over with by dinnertime? More from Ursula Perano and Burgess Everett The answer appears to be no: Some conservatives haven’t been willing to consent to any short-circuit arrangement, even if it’s the only way to guarantee some debate on the articles. Democrats have entertained the talks because they want the most bipartisan dismissal vote possible. Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah), in particular, has suggested he’s no fan of this impeachment but that he also wants to see at least some deliberations; Sen. LISA MURKOWSKI (R-Alaska) has also aired concerns. These Democrats argue that allowing a couple of hours of debate is worth ensuring a bipartisan outcome. One thing we were told last night: Don’t expect the House managers to get any floor time. If both parties agree to allow debate, it will be between senators — not between managers and Mayorkas’s camp. In fact, we’re told, Mayorkas won’t even have counsel there. Bottom line: If no agreement pans out before the trial starts at 1 p.m. — as appears likely — Democrats appear to have the votes to shut off debate completely. Related read: “The White House is monitoring Mayorkas impeachment — but not actively working the trial,” by Jennifer Haberkorn and Myah Ward: “The absence of direct outreach to senators such as Romney and Murkowski — either of whom could provide the added boast of a bipartisan dismissal — underscores their belief that the matter will die quickly in the Senate, and that there will be few if any repercussions for the president.” Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: Essential pro-growth tax policies have expired or are being phased out, making it more difficult for U.S. businesses to invest at home, create American jobs and compete globally. The House has passed legislation to stop these tax increases on U.S. job creators. Now, it’s up to the Senate to act. It’s time to strengthen America’s global competitiveness. Pass the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act. Learn more. | | | RATING ARIZONA — Arizona is getting a shake-up in the race ratings this morning: Sabato’s Crystal Ball is moving the Grand Canyon State’s open-seat Senate race between GOP candidate KARI LAKE and Democratic Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic,” while Rep. JUAN CISCOMANI’s (R-Ariz.) seat moves from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up.” Kyle Kondik explains the moves: “The two new developments that pushed us to make these changes are the increased importance of abortion rights in the state following a blockbuster state court decision last week to reinstate a draconian abortion ban as well as recent Democratic fundraising strength in both races.” Speaking of Arizona … “Kari Lake suggests supporters 'strap on a Glock' to be ready for 2024,” by NBC’s Alex Tabet: “That’s why the next six months is going to be intense. And we need to strap on our — let’s see. What do we want to strap on?” Lake said at a campaign event recently. “We’re going to strap on our, our seat belt. We’re going to put on our helmet or your Kari Lake ball cap. We are going to put on the armor of God. And maybe strap on a Glock on the side of us just in case.”
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate is in and will take up the Mayorkas impeachment articles at 1 p.m. AG MERRICK GARLAND and Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM will testify before Appropriations subcommittees at 9:30 a.m. The House will meet at 10 a.m. to take up the various national security bills. First and last votes are expected at 5 p.m. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. CHARLES Q. BROWN JR., Interior Secretary DEB HAALAND, and Acting Labor Secretary JULIE SU will testify before various Appropriations subcommittees this morning. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA will testify before the Energy and Commerce Committee at 2 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- Two heavyweight hearings are worth your attention today: At 10:15 a.m., Columbia University President NEMAT SHAFIK testifies before the House Education and Workforce Committee in a potential reprise of the explosive December hearing that resulted in the resignations of two other Ivy League presidents. An hour later, the Senate Homeland Security Investigations Subcommittee hears from Boeing whistleblower SAM SALEHPOUR and other aviation experts in a deep dive into the troubled jet manufacturer.
- As Johnson faces saber-rattling from his hard-right critics, various figures in the GOP firmament vouched for the speaker (and were retweeted by Johnson comms director RAJ SHAH): Georgia Gov. BRIAN KEMP, Utah Gov. SPENCER COX, Family Research Council President TONY PERKINS and SBA President MARJORIE DANNENFELSER. A less enthusiastic endorsee was former President DONALD TRUMP, who was asked about Johnson’s plight leaving court yesterday: “We’ll see what happens with that.”
- The House votes later today on the Fourth Amendment Is Not For Sale Act, a bill teed up as part of the deal that allowed for last week’s spy-powers extension vote. The bill from Rep. WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio) would block the U.S. government from purchasing commercially available data on Americans. The White House opposes the bill, pointing out that foreign entities would be free to buy and use the same data. Davidson retorted: “Apparently, the Biden Administration loves violating your privacy.”
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. Before noon, the president will travel to Pittsburgh, where he is scheduled to meet with steelworkers in the afternoon and deliver remarks. In the evening, Biden will return to the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS will depart Los Angeles in the morning to return to D.C.
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In some progressive primaries, AIPAC's spigots haven’t yet been turned on. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | ALL POLITICS HOW IT’S PLAYING — Liberal lawmakers and candidates have fretted for months about the influence of AIPAC in Democratic primaries after it spent heavily against some in the party last cycle. They’re still bracing for a wave of spending, but in some progressives’ primaries, the spigots haven’t yet been turned on, Nicholas Wu and Madison Fernandez report, indicating efforts to “neutralize” the group might be working. “Progressives critical of Israel … think they can exploit even the threat of AIPAC’s involvement in their races, in yet another sign of the schism among Democrats over the escalating Israel-Hamas war. Their digital ads warn of the group’s influence and seek to energize small-dollar donors. Advocacy groups supporting them have formed an anti-AIPAC coalition to coordinate a defense against the expected influx of cash.”
- Idaho Democrats are trying to plot a path out of the political wilderness, Liz Crampton writes, running candidates in every state legislative district for the first time in at least 30 years. It’s part of a nationwide push to reverse the GOP’s dominance in state houses, where they hold 55 percent of all legislative seats.
- California GOP Senate candidate STEVE GARVEY “struggled to pay his taxes following his Major League Baseball career,” Chris Cadelago reports, finding that he and his businesses “were named in more than 40 tax liens, federal and state, totaling about $3.85 million.” Garvey campaign’s acknowledged the debt and said he is working to pay it off.
TRUMP CARDS
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Seven jurors have now been chosen and sworn in for Donald Trump's Manhattan hush money trial. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | ON WEDNESDAYS, WE DITCH COURT — While Trump’s first criminal trial is underway this week, you won’t see him filing into a courtroom today — or any Wednesday, for that matter. “Justice JUAN MERCHAN, the judge presiding over the trial, uses Wednesdays to attend to the business of other cases he is handling,” Erica Orden writes, “and said he won’t hold proceedings those days unless there are ‘excessive delays’ in the Trump case.” The weekly reprieve offers the former president an opportunity to get out on the campaign trail. Scenes from Day Two: Seven jurors have now been chosen and sworn in. They “include a West Harlem man originally from Ireland, an Upper East Side oncology nurse and two lawyers,” Erica reports. “Four of the jurors chosen so far are men; three are women. Once the full panel is selected — which could happen by the end of the week — the trial will enter its next stage: opening arguments and the presentation of evidence.” “Though Trump himself said little during the day’s events, he earned himself his first reprimand from Merchan. ‘Your client was audibly uttering something,’ Merchan told [Trump lawyer TODD] BLANCHE after he had finished questioning a prospective juror. ‘I won’t tolerate that,’ Merchan said. ‘I will not have any jurors intimidated in this courtroom.’” From trial to trail: “Trump moves to flip the script on New York trial,” by Emily Ngo and Meridith McGraw: “Trump visited … the site of a 2022 fatal stabbing, which the perpetrator described as self defense against an unprovoked attack in a case that inflamed conservatives. The appearance signaled an effort by Trump to go on the offensive after two days besieged in court, while kneecapping ALVIN BRAGG, the Democratic prosecutor trying his case.” More top reads:
- Trump today is planning to meet with right-wing Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA in New York, “the latest in a series of his private interactions with leaders or emissaries from countries from the Persian Gulf to Eastern Europe, many of whom share an affinity with his brand of politics,” NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Michael Crowley report.
- “Company defends Trump’s $175 million bond in new filing,” by WaPo’s Michael Kranish and Jonathan O'Connell: “The filing sets the stage for a court hearing next week in Trump’s New York civil fraud case, where Justice ARTHUR ENGORON will decide whether the bond has met state requirements.”
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable:   | | | CONGRESS
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Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) discussed Johnson’s Ukraine/Israel package in a podcast interview with The New Republic's Greg Sargent. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo | CONGRESS WHAT THEY’RE SAYING — For a taste of how some rank-and-file Dems are approaching the latest House GOP drama, Rep. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.) went on Greg Sargent’s podcast for The New Republic to share a surprisingly bullish outlook for the Ukraine/Israel package, saying Democrats would likely support it and that she personally was inclined to support Johnson in a motion-to-vacate scenario. Sherrill added that she trusts Johnson more than McCarthy — “I think that’s a pretty low bar, however” — and that she would prefer (and has communicated to Dem leadership) that the Ukraine aid bill moves first. WHAT ABOUT BOB — “Sen. Bob Menendez may point the finger at his wife, newly unsealed documents show,” by Ry Rivard 2024 WATCH COMING TODAY — In a speech today at United Steelworkers headquarters in Pittsburgh, Biden will prose “hiking tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum as part of a package of actions aimed at penalizing Beijing and winning the votes of steel workers and other industrial employees this November,” Gavin Bade writes. “The result could be tariffs nearing 50 percent for Chinese steel and over 30 percent for aluminum. … But the actual impact of the tariffs could be minimal, because of a precipitous drop in Chinese metal shipments to the U.S.” BIDEN BACK HOME — Biden went on the attack in a campaign stop in his hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, yesterday in remarks that were ostensibly about taxes, NYT’s Nicholas Nehamas reports. “But … the president returned again and again to Mr. Trump. His jabs at his predecessor took aim at the former president’s wealthy upbringing, his friendships with billionaires and his 2017 tax cuts that disproportionately benefited America’s upper crust.” POLICY CORNER FED UP — “Powell Dials Back Expectations on Rate Cuts,” by WSJ’s Nick Timiraos: “Firm inflation during the first quarter has called into question whether the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates this year without signs of an unexpected economic slowdown, Chair JEROME POWELL said Tuesday. His remarks indicated a clear shift in the Fed’s outlook following a third consecutive month of stronger-than-anticipated inflation readings.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD THE MAN WITH NO PLAN — Nahal Toosi pens the latest edition of her must-read Compass column on Biden’s seemingly absent Iran plan: “When I asked the U.S. official what President Joe Biden’s Iran strategy is, I was immediately met with laughter. Then, the official said, ‘You know, a lot of people inside the administration ask that same question. Sometimes they ask it on the first day. Sometimes they ask it six months later.’ I have an answer for them: There is no Biden strategy for Iran. If he wants to end the growing chaos in the Middle East, he might want to come up with one.” Related read: “Israel Weighs Response to Iran Attack, With Each Choice a Risk,” by NYT’s Ronen Bergman, Isabel Kershner, Julian Barnes and Russell Goldman WATCH THIS SPACE — “Pro-Palestinian protests could foreshadow a summer of upheaval,” by WaPo’s Tim Craig MEDIAWATCH FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Smartmatic and OANN settle lawsuit over 2020 coverage,” by WaPo’s Jeremy Barr: “Smartmatic, headquartered in Florida, also sued Fox News Channel — for $2.7 billion — and Newsmax; both of those cases are ongoing, according to court dockets.”
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Jill Biden will speak at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation’s First Ladies Lunch, becoming the first sitting first lady to do so. David Ellison, son of GOP megadonor Larry Ellison, gave nearly $1 million to Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. Nicole Shanahan injected $2 million of her own cash into Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign. Mary Peltola is not pleased with Joe Biden’s decision to block an Alaska mining road. Kiran Ahuja is stepping down as director of the Office of Personnel Management. IN MEMORIAM — “Bob Graham, former Florida governor and U.S. senator with a common touch, dies at 87,” by the Tallahassee Democrat’s Bill Cotterell: “He passed away at 8:30 p.m. of old age with his wife, Adele, and family by his side in a retirement community in Gainesville. … As a wealthy Harvard-educated lawyer from Miami Lakes whose legislator father lost a bid for governor that kindled his son’s early political interest, Graham skillfully balanced his aristocratic pedigree with a quirky common touch.” SPOTTED: Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) snapping a pic of Sens. Angus King (I-Maine) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) outside of Tunnicliff's yesterday evening. Pic OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the XR Association’s “Demo on the Hill” event yesterday: Rep. Nick Langworthy (R-N.Y.), Elizabeth Hyman, Stephanie Burns, Amy Hedrick, Andres Castrillon, Daniel Diez, Debbie Girolamo, Heidi Holman, Joan O’Hara, Miranda Lutz, Adam Cargill, Dan Risko, Sarah Potter, Liam Dow, Dileep Singh, Charlie Moskowitz, Noelle Jones and Marissa Marshall. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Democratic National Convention Committee in Chicago is staffing up with a round of new hires: Joyce Kazadi will be deputy executive director of operations and previously was chief of staff to Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.). Cayana Mackey-Nance will be director of digital strategy and previously was VP of digital for EMILY's List. Alyssa Mensie will be deputy director for federal, state and local elected official outreach and previously was member services and outreach adviser for House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.). Will Alexander will be deputy director for state delegation outreach and Kasseem Smith will be deputy director for allied group outreach. NEW THIS MORNING — The Messina Group and Global Counsel are announcing a new global partnership to align their businesses through a minority investment by TMG in GC, aligning operations across offices in the U.S., Europe, the Middle East and Asia. TRANSITIONS — Catherine Boland is now director of government affairs at LKQ Corp. She previously was VP of legislative affairs in the advocacy office at MEMA, the Vehicle Suppliers Association, and is a Hill alum. … Aaron Woolf and Dylan Peterson are joining the Semiconductor Industry Association. Woolf will be director of global policy for economic security and previously was policy adviser at the Treasury Department’s Office of Investment Security. Peterson will be comms associate and previously was at Denton’s Global Advisors. … … Jamie Morris Line is now director of external comms at Hertz. She most recently was senior director at Locust Street Group. … Joaquin Tamayo is now VP of policy at Communities in Schools. He previously was a senior adviser at the Education Department and is an Obama 44 and Aspen Institute alum. … Robert Nelb is joining America’s Essential Hospitals as policy director. He previously was a principal analyst for the Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission and is a CMS and HHS alum. ENGAGED — Canyon Brimhall, senior manager of federal government affairs at the R Street Institute, and Audrey Smith, senior policy advisor for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), got engaged on Sunday near Harpers Ferry. They met on Capitol Hill while working for House members in 2014 and began dating in 2016. — Mike Gwin, principal deputy assistant secretary for public affairs at the Treasury Department and a White House alum, and Ieva Skrīvere, who is finishing her MSFS graduate degree from Georgetown this spring and is an IMF and Central Bank of Latvia alum, got engaged on Saturday. Mike proposed on a walk in Kalorama, followed by a champagne toast down the street at the site of their first date, McClellan’s Retreat, and dinner at their favorite restaurant, Albi. The couple met on a dating app. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Alex Yergin, an associate who supports the Defense Department at Booz Allen, and Jessica Yergin, co-founder of Tails of Connection, recently welcomed Sydney Gabriella Yergin, who joins big sister Natalie. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte … Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) … Dean Lieberman of the White House … CNN’s Jim Acosta … NYT’s Julie Hirschfeld Davis … POLITICO’s Angelica Botlo and Andres Picon … Chris Durlak … Shaunna Thomas of UltraViolet … Leslie Dach of Protect Our Care … Dickinson Wright’s Jim Tyrrell … Jane Oates of WorkingNation … Greg Lemon … Jackie Whisman of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation … Annie Coulson of Rep. Dwight Evans’ (D-Pa.) office … Dylan Peachey of the House Ways and Means Committee … Jennifer LaTourette … Axios’ David Lindsey … Jessica Ehrlich … Cecile Rohwedder … Jon Simons … Ed Gilroy … Sean Dalton … Eric Sayers of Beacon Global Strategies … Ken Jost … Marty Obst of MO Strategies … former Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.) … Bloomberg’s Jeffrey Horst … Alex Kellner … Chris Eddowes of Atlas Crossing (33) … Benton Coblentz, who is starting as an MPA candidate at Princeton School of Public and International Affairs Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Business Roundtable: From lifesaving medical devices to everyday household products, U.S. companies and the hardworking Americans they employ have developed many of the world’s most important goods and services. These innovations were made possible by a competitive, pro-growth tax system that spurred robust domestic investment.
Unfortunately, key tax policies have expired or are being phased out, making it more difficult for U.S. businesses to invest at home, create American jobs and compete globally. The House has passed legislation to stop these tax increases on U.S. job creators. Now, it’s up to the Senate to act.
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