| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida spoke alongside President Joe Biden at the White House this afternoon, a moment that underscored Tokyo’s major defense upgrades with Washington’s backing. | Alex Brandon/AP | With help from Phelim Kine, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The White House is celebrating tightening ties with Japan and the Philippines to counter China's increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific — days after toasting the stabilization of relations with Beijing. Japanese Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA spoke alongside President JOE BIDEN at the White House this afternoon, a moment that underscored Tokyo’s major defense upgrades with Washington’s backing. On Thursday, they’ll hold the first-ever trilateral summit with Philippines President FERDINAND MARCOS JR., cementing one of the administration’s main priorities: Creating a regional alliance against China. The timing is somewhat ironic. As loyal NatSec Daily readers know, U.S. officials spoke with their Chinese counterparts many times last week. In one instance, the Pentagon built on months of talks between top officials, culminating in the resumption of a meeting designed to prevent conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Even Xi said the U.S.-China relationship “is beginning to stabilize.” This week, the Biden administration is aiming to “make China isolated and the outlier in the neighborhood,” a senior administration official told reporters Wednesday evening, granted anonymity as a condition to preview the visit. The summit aims to redefine the Japan-U.S. alliance from “alliance protection to alliance projection” in areas including Europe and the Middle East, the official added, saying Japan will now be a “full global partner” of the United States. That includes more integration of U.S., Japanese and regional forces in the Indo-Pacific, and the creation of a council to discuss co-production of defensive weapons. If the White House pulls off this week without any major rebuke from Beijing, they would have good reason to pop champagne: The U.S. was able to improve communication channels with its adversary, the main goal in that fraught relationship, while demonstrating to China that Washington won’t stand idly by if conflict breaks out in the region. But China could also view the Biden-Kishida-Marcos victory lap as the one of the strongest denunciations of Beijing’s actions in the Indo-Pacific yet and again limit communication on military matters with the U.S. The Biden administration isn’t losing sleep over ruffling Xi’s feathers, who met with the former Taiwanese president today — an apparent message to the U.S. that China remains focused on reunification with the island nation despite the trilateral this week. Asked if the White House believes the summit could backfire, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily, “I don’t think we do, no.” This week’s summit “speaks to the broader end goal of there being less surprises in the relationship,” said the official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal discussions. “There's not anything that's gonna get telegraphed here that isn't something that has already been communicated” to Beijing. Read: Israel and Ukraine dominate Biden’s life. China gets its moment this week by our own ALEX WARD and JONATHAN LEMIRE
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Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | IRAN’S IMMINENT STRIKES: The U.S. and its allies believe Iran could strike Israel with a major missile or drone attack in the coming days, people familiar with the intelligence told Bloomberg News’ DONATO PAOLO MANCINI, JENNIFER JACOBS, and GALIT ALTSTEIN report. The assault, which could use high-precision missiles, is seen more as a “when” and not “if,” one person told Bloomberg. It would mark a significant widening of Israel’s war seven months in, as the conflict has mostly been contained to Israel fighting Hamas and Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group. The assessment comes hours after Israel’s foreign minister ISRAEL KATZ said that his country will strike Iran if Tehran launches attacks against Israel. “If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran,” Katz said in a post on X. That statement came shortly after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI reiterated his vow to retaliate against Israel for its strike on a consulate in Damascus last week, which killed top Iranian commanders. Since then, the U.S. has considered Iran to be an “active threat” against Israel. IRAN’S NUKES: Tehran is closer to nuclear weapons capability than any time in its history, The Washington Post’s JOBY WARRICK reports, citing confidential inspection reports and interviews with officials and experts who closely monitor Iran’s progress. “While Iran says it has no plans to make nuclear weapons, it now has a supply of highly enriched uranium that could be converted to weapons-grade fuel for at least three bombs in a time frame ranging from a few days to a few weeks, current and former officials said,” The Post writes. That analysis comes six years after the Trump administration pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal, which aimed to keep Iranian uranium enrichment below the grade necessary to develop nukes. It could now take as few as six months to make a crude nuclear device, and a nuclear warhead deliverable by missile could take as long as two years, the officials told the Post. “The trend is unmistakable,” the Post writes. “The emerging view is one of Iran advancing slowly but confidently, accumulating the means for a future weapon while making no overt move to build one.” MORE HAVANA SYNDROME: At least eight employees of the National Security Agency suffer from the mysterious ailment known as “Havana syndrome,” our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The disclosure from NSA Director Gen. TIMOTHY HAUGH comes after news reports that a secret Russian military unit may be behind the attacks. “I can definitely assure you that any new evidence we receive, we will pursue,” Haugh said while testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee today, announcing the diagnoses. LATEST ON A CEASE-FIRE: Israel agreed to a part of a proposed cease-fire deal that would allow a large number of Palestinians to return to northern Gaza unchecked, but Israel’s negotiators argue that Hamas doesn’t want to strike a deal. A pair of Israeli officials told Reuters’ JAMES MACKENZIE that under a U.S. cease-fire proposal, Israel would allow 150,000 Palestinians to return to the north without undergoing security checks. Hamas would then be required to provide a list of female, elderly and sick hostages who are still alive, they added. On Tuesday, Hamas said it will study the proposal, which the group said doesn’t meet some of their demands: a permanent cease-fire, a withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and permission for Palestinians to return to their homes in the territory. But Israel negotiators believe Hamas isn’t interested in striking a deal yet, the officials told Reuters Today, Hamas’s political leadership head ISMAIL HANIYEH announced that three of his children were killed in an Israeli strike in Gaza, which could further complicate a potential deal. BIDEN’S BIBI DISAPPROVAL: Biden offered one of his harshest public criticisms of Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU to date, calling Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza a “mistake,” Alex and SAM STEIN reported Tuesday night. “I think what he’s doing is a mistake,” Biden said of Netanyahu in an interview with Univision. “I don’t agree with his approach.” The president appeared to specifically cite the drone attack that killed the aid workers from the World Central Kitchen aid group, calling it “outrageous,” and said their vehicles did not pose a threat. ‘CONSIDERING’ ASSANGE: Biden said today that the U.S. government is “considering” dropping charges against Wikileaks founder JULIAN ASSANGE in response to a question asked by the White House press pool. The Australian government has called on Biden to end Assange’s prosecution for publishing classified documents on his site over a decade ago. IT’S WEDNESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | TRUMP A SPOILER ON SPY BILL: Nineteen Republicans voted to block debate on a bill to renew Section 702, a controversial information collection bill that is set to expire soon, hours after President DONALD TRUMP came out swinging against the bill our own JORDAIN CARNEY and OLIVIA BEAVERS report. In a post on Truth Social this morning, Trump wrote “KILL FISA. IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME, AND MANY OTHERS. THEY SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN!!!" The rebuke from the presumptive Republican nominee comes as Republicans accuse federal and state prosecutors of unfairly targeting the former president in a litany of civil and criminal trials ahead of the November election. It also re-upps long-standing claims from Trump and his allies that federal law enforcement attempted to sabotage his 2016 presidential campaign. The post bolstered protests from members of the House Freedom Caucus, who voiced concerns that the proposed reauthorization bill lacked provisions preventing data brokers from selling consumer information to law enforcement. Earlier today, in response to Trump’s post, Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) posted simply “On it.” Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) also signaled she would use the issue against Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA and Olivia report. "How he handles the FISA process and how he handles funding Ukraine is going … to tell our entire conference how to handle the motion to vacate," Greene told reporters today.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | QUANTUM LEAP: Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) and Sen. MARSHA BLACKBURN (R-Tenn.) are introducing legislation today to fast-track the DOD’s adoption of quantum technology, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The Defense Quantum Acceleration Act would require DOD to create a “set of activities” to embrace quantum information science and to hire a principal quantum adviser to the defense secretary. The bill would also establish a “national defense quantum information science joint center of excellence” to host a testbed for quantum tech. It would authorize $20 million per year through 2029 to support the center, though appropriators would have to match that. We’ll be watching to see if Stefanik uses her perch on the House Armed Services Committee to include the bill in the NDAA for fiscal 2025, which has yet to be drafted.
| | TAURUS MISSILE SPATS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY blasted German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ over Berlin’s refusal to provide Ukraine with powerful Taurus missiles in an interview with Axel Springer’s PAUL RONZHEIMER. In an interview with Ronzheimer, Zelenskyy said Scholz has been reluctant to send Ukraine Taurus missiles, which have a range of 500 kilometers and carry a powerful warhead. The Ukrainians want the missiles so they can strike further into Russian-occupied territory, including Crimea. But the Germans see it as a powerful defensive tool in their arsenal in the face of nuclear threats and don’t want to deplete their stocks. “As far as I understand, the chancellor believes that, as he is a representative of a non-nuclear state, this is the only weapon that Germany has, is the most powerful one,” Zelenskyy said. “He shared messages with me saying that he cannot leave his country without such a powerful weapon.” POLITICO is owned by Axel Springer. Zelenskyy disputed the logic behind that calculus, saying “any missiles … will not protect a single person from nuclear strikes, if a nuclear war breaks out, God forbid." Scholz has said he does not wish to provoke Moscow and escalate the war further. “That is a line that I do not want to cross as chancellor,” Scholz said in March. “I have a responsibility to prevent Germany from becoming involved in this war.”
| | | |   | | | | | DIRE WARNINGS ON UKRAINE AID: The top military commander in Europe warned Congress that Ukraine can't win without further U.S. support, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. Gen. CHRISTOPHER CAVOLI, the head of U.S. European Command and NATO's Supreme Allied Commander on the continent, told the House Armed Services Committee that Ukrainian forces will run out of artillery shells and air defense interceptors in "short order" and warned that "Ukraine could lose" if further support isn't approved. "If one side can shoot and the other side can't shoot back, the side that can't shoot back loses," Cavoli said. Ukrainian forces, Cavoli testified, are being outshot 5-to-1 by Russia artillery as Kyiv rations shells that have mostly been supplied by the U.S. But he predicted that disparity would double quickly. "That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks," Cavoli said. "We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically." Assistant Defense Secretary for International Security Affairs CELESTE WALLANDER told lawmakers that the Pentagon would be able to begin providing ammunition, artillery and air defense interceptors "within a week or two" if Congress approves supplemental funding.
| | STRIKING OIL: Ukraine pushed back today on Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN’s insistence that Kyiv shouldn’t focus on attacking Russian oil refineries. “Russian refineries are legitimate military targets, as they are a source of financing and material support for Russian aggression against Ukraine. Ukraine only reacts symmetrically to the enemy's continuous attempts to destroy Ukraine's energy system,” reads an internal Ukrainian government document setting out talking points for Ukrainian officials, obtained by NatSec Daily. Speaking in front of lawmakers on Tuesday, Austin said, “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.” AMLO AWAITS OTTAWA: Mexican President ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR expressed gratitude today that leaders from across the political spectrum had condemned Ecuador’s incursion into the Mexican embassy in Quito — and called out Canada for not going as far as others. “Yesterday, the national security adviser came out with a more clear, more defined position of condemnation to these events,” López Obrador told reporters, referring to JAKE SULLIVAN. “We’re waiting for the same from Canada, even though we are respectful of the decisions which governments take.” Global Affairs Canada directed NatSec Daily to an Apr. 6 post on X where they said the government were “deeply concerned” about the embassy attack. The populist Mexican president also called Washington’s initial response “ambiguous and tepid” but praised Sullivan’s comments condemning the embassy attack at Tuesday’s White House press briefing. “We appreciate that gesture of solidarity,” López Obrador said. CAMPBELL: CHINA’S RUSSIA AID THREATENS EUROPE: Deputy Secretary of State KURT CAMPBELL said the Biden administration has warned Beijing that its ongoing assistance in rebuilding Russia’s industrial weapons production system threatens Europe and will have grave consequences for U.S.-China ties, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. “We have told China directly, if this continues, it will have an impact on the U.S. China relationship — we will not lie and say everything's fine,” Campbell said at a National Committee on U.S. China Relations event Tuesday evening. If future Russian offensives allow Moscow to take more of Ukraine’s territory, “we will see this not as just a Russian unique set of activities but a conjoined set of activities backed by China but also North Korea,” Campbell said
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CATHERINE WHITE has been promoted to be deputy press secretary for U.S. Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI, our DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was a press assistant for USTR. — House Republicans selected Rep. TOM COLE (R-Okla.) as the next chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, elevating a widely-respected supporter of Ukraine into a critical role in the fight to pass the supplemental aid bill. The convivial cigar-smoking Oklahoman will also be the first Native American to helm the influential funding panel.
| | — MATT POTTINGER and MIKE GALLAGHER, Foreign Affairs: No substitute for victory — SPENCER ACKERMAN, The New York Times: Where is America’s ‘rules-based order’ now? — JENNIFER KAVANAGH and KELLY GRIECO, Foreign Policy: It’s too soon for Biden and Kishida to take a victory lap
| | — Senate Armed Services Committee, 8 a.m.: The posture of United States European Command and United States Transportation Command in review of the defense authorization request for FY2025 and the future years defense program — Brookings Institution, 8:30 a.m.: “Lessons on mitigating election interference," focusing on "the current state of play of AI technology and the lessons learned from the experiences in Europe, Taiwan, and Australia on foreign election interference" — Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Chips and the China threat — Senate Foreign Relations Western Hemisphere, Transnational Crime, Civilian Security, Democracy, Human Rights, and Global Women's Issues Subcommittee, 9:30 a.m.: Countering transnational criminal networks and corruption in the Western Hemisphere — Inter-American Dialogue, 9 a.m.: New infrastructure - emerging trends in Chinese investment in Latin America — Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: South Korea's general elections: implications for Yoon's foreign policy — Freedom House, 10 a.m.: Discussion on a report titled "Nations in Transit 2024" — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 11 a.m.: Ukraine's global identity: eurocentric and decolonial — House Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee, 1:30 p.m.: FY2025 request for the United States Agency for International Development — Georgetown University's Institute of Politics and Public Service, 1:30 p.m.: A discussion with former British Prime Minister BORIS JOHNSON, on the U.S. and United Kingdom elections and the role of global powers in addressing escalating crises in global hotspots. — House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and Projection Forces Subcommittee, 3 p.m.: Posture and readiness of the mobility enterprise - TRANSCOM and MARAD — House Armed Services Intelligence and Special Operations Subcommittee, 3:30 p.m.: A review of the defense intelligence enterprise's posture and capabilities in strategic competition and in synchronizing intelligence efforts to counter the People's Republic of China — Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, 4 p.m.: Joining the free world: the Baltic journey post-communism — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4:30 p.m.: A more representative American foreign policy with U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who will never be part of the historic Matt-Eric-Greg summit. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who helps us in repelling Heidi’s aggression.
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