Wisconsin: Biden’s latest protest vote test

How race and identity are shaping politics, policy and power.
Apr 02, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Brakkton Booker

With help from Joseph Gedeon, Ella Creamer, Jesse Naranjo, Rishika Dugyala and Ben Weyl

Photo illustration of torn-paper edge on photo of demonstrators marching in street holding Palestinian flags and holding banner reading "Vote Uninstructed on April 2nd."

Demonstrators urging people to vote "uninstructed" in Wisconsin's presidential primary march in Milwaukee on Saturday. | Brakkton Booker/POLITICO

What up, Recast fam! President Joe Biden is set to visit Baltimore later this week to tour the site of last week’s bridge collapse. Donald Trump posts a $175 million bond while appealing his civil fraud case. Plus, a New York judge expands a gag order on the former president ahead of the start of his criminal trial. First, though, we focus on the critical swing state of Wisconsin.

While he faces no direct threat to his status as the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee, Joe Biden — or at least the strength of the enthusiasm for his fall candidacy — will be tested today by Badger State voters.

Progressives, young people and pro-Palestinian activists, fed up with Biden’s policy toward Israel and the ongoing war in Gaza, are using Wisconsin’s presidential primary to register their frustration by urging Democrats to vote “uninstructed,” this state’s version of the “uncommitted” ballot line which already had strong showings in states such as Michigan, Minnesota and North Carolina.

Over the weekend, while I was reporting there, I watched nearly 200 protesters march through Milwaukee’s Bay View neighborhood, some waving Palestinian flags and chanting “Genocide Joe” and “Ethnic cleansing is a crime, Biden should be doing time.”

That march, along with the broader “uninstructed” push, is being spearheaded by the group Listen to Wisconsin, which began organizing in earnest in March. Organizers have been mobilizing on social media and through text-banking, as well as canvassing in deep-blue strongholds like Milwaukee and Madison, the state capital which is also home to the University of Wisconsin.

The group, similar to others making the “uncommitted” push, is calling for the president to support an immediate cease-fire, to end U.S. military aid to Israel and for unhindered humanitarian aid to Gaza, including the reinstatement of funds to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency. The U.S. suspended funding to that program in January and a recent government funding package passed by Congress and signed by the president lengthens the funding moratorium through early 2025.


 

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Democratic state Rep. Francesca Hong is leading an effort backed by 25 Democratic elected state and local officials to amplify the “uninstructed” push. Hong said it’s not simply to pressure the president, but to send a message to Biden that if he doesn’t move urgently on this, he risks jeopardizing Democrats in down-ballot races in the fall.

“I know that specifically electeds of color and those who have trusted relationships with communities who feel most left behind by politicians, our ability to really rally folk to come out to vote is kind of being fucked with, to be honest,” Hong tells The Recast.

View from behind shows demonstrator with handwritten sign reading "Genocide Joe, the people will remember what you've done."

Demonstrators march in Milwaukee on Saturday. | Brakkton Booker/POLITICO

“These are people who we may not be able to persuade if they believe that their president and their country is ... complicit in genocide,” she adds.

Activists point to a poll commissioned by Listen to Wisconsin and released Monday showing roughly 1 in 5 respondents in Wisconsin say the war will impact how they vote in the primary. And of the protest votes, roughly three-quarters say they disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. The poll also found 71 percent of respondents strongly support an immediate and permanent cease-fire in Gaza.

Wisconsin is a pivotal swing state and one that tends to deliver victories though razor-thin margins. Biden won the state by less than 1 percent in 2020 — a margin of victory even narrower than former President Donald Trump’s win in the state in 2016.

Organizers are aiming to hit 20,000 “uninstructed” votes in Tuesday’s primary — roughly equivalent to Biden’s margin over Trump four years ago. Their calculation: If Biden does not shift his stance on Israel, these left-leaning organizers in state may not mobilize for him come November.

“Because our elections are so close, I think any margin where we can show that the constituency is united on this front, and is willing to reflect that at the ballot box is something that this administration should heed,” according to Reema Ahmad, a Palestinian American activist based in Milwaukee and one of the lead organizers with Listen to Wisconsin.

She is also holding out hope that the “uninstructed” effort can secure at least 15 percent of the vote outright or in individual congressional districts to earn delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer.

Quote from Reema Ahmad, Milwaukee-based activist, reads "I think any margin where we can show that the constituency is united on this front ... is something that this administration should heed."

Ahmad and other activists haven’t said what they’ll do after the April 2 primary or how they will instruct their coalitions to vote in November, should Biden fall short of their demands. Still, no one with the group is advocating supporters vote for Trump.

“The pressure in Wisconsin is always through the roof,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler tells The Recast. He sees some positives with the “uninstructed” effort that’s being pushed by activists and some of the state party’s elected officials.

“Voters who want to send the message go to the polls, rather than tuning out of the process altogether,” he said, nodding to the fact that Biden has made six stops in the state since the midterm elections, while Trump’s first stop in the state this cycle will be tonight in Green Bay.

He also echoed what other national Democrats acknowledge: The war is a galvanizing issue for many in the party and Biden has work to do to win back some of the party’s most agitated members.

Top Democrats have increasingly expressed concern with Israel’s conduct in the war. Vice President Kamala Harris called for “an immediate cease-fire” during remarks last month in Selma, Alabama, and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the Senate’s top Democrat and highest-ranking Jewish American official, offered a blistering critique of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But it seems to be having little impact tamping down the protests, as evidenced by the interruptions at a major fundraiser in New York last week when Biden appeared with former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.

Marchers hold Palestinian flags and signs reading "free Palestine."

"Uninstructed" advocates march in Milwaukee on Saturday holding signs and Palestinian flags. | Brakkton Booker/POLITICO

On Monday, my POLITICO colleagues Lara Seligman, Joe Gould and Paul McCleary reported the U.S. is considering major new weapon sales to Israel, including fighter jets and air-to-air missiles.

Though the sale is still pending, and it will likely be years before some of those weapons arrive in Israel if the sale is completed, the move may only further complicate Biden’s ability to win back some of the voters he is losing over his Israel-Hamas war policy.

We’ll keep tabs and report back on how all of this shakes out.

All the best,
The Recast Team


 

INVISIBLE NO MORE ON THE CENSUS

Arabic message on gas pump urges participation in 2020 census.

A message in Arabic on a gas pump in Dearborn, Michigan, urges people to participate in the 2020 census. | Carlos Osorio/AP

For decades, Arab Americans and other Middle Eastern and North African communities have been rendered virtually invisible in federal data collection, an unseen demographic lost in the broad “white” racial category — even though they come in a variety of phenotypes and shades and hail from 22 different countries, from Iran to Egypt to Sudan.

But after years of advocacy, that is finally set to change with the addition of a new “Middle Eastern or North African” checkbox category for the upcoming 2030 census, reports our colleague Joseph Gedeon.

It also comes at a crucial time for the Middle Eastern community, which is torn up about the more than 32,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza. It’s this community who has felt invisible in more ways than one, and — along with their allies — are heavily pressuring the White House to change its position on the Israel-Hamas conflict. In the Michigan primary, Arab American Democrats, a potent voting bloc in the state, voted “uncommitted” to send a message to Biden.

“The severe miscalculation on the part of the Biden campaign and administration is the influence of our community as a size and as a political project around holding this administration accountable,” says Maytha Alhassen, a religion and public life fellow at Harvard University.

Currently, the Arab American population is estimated at nearly 4 million, though community leaders argue the true number could be higher due to severe undercounting in previous censuses. It’s a count that doesn’t include Iranian Americans or Armenian Americans, estimated at around 570,000 and 520,000 respectively.

“For a very long time before we could even say we need disaggregated data, we didn’t have the aggregate data about our folks — literally rendered invisible in all government data collection,” says Maya Berry, executive director of the Arab American Institute, a leading voice in the push for better data.

And better data means better allocation of political representation and funding for social services in Middle Eastern communities in the United States.

The road to recognition has been a long one, with efforts dating years ahead of 1997, when the standards for race and ethnicity categorization were last updated. In the late 2000s, the Obama administration began testing the addition of a MENA category, only to have those plans derailed under Trump.

Now, after a federal review process and over 20,000 public comments in support, the new MENA checkbox is on track to be included for 2030 — a potential game changer for an Arab and Middle Eastern community seeking more equitable political representation and access to government programs.

The changes followed over a decade of research and public outreach by a special working group convened by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget in 2022. Beyond the MENA category, the updated standards call for combining the race and ethnicity questions into one, allowing for multiple selections.

But the journey is not over. Some fear a flip back to a Trump presidency could reverse course.

“We understand the importance of data equity, but we can’t take anything for granted in this environment,” Berry cautions.


 

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