| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he plans to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (pictured) to address Congress, raising the question of whether the Biden administration would make the rejection of the ICC into a public spectacle. | Pool photo by Amir Cohen | With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The White House is furious that the International Criminal Court is seeking an arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU — an action that could pose fresh political problems for President JOE BIDEN in the months to come. ICC chief prosecutor KARIM KHAN’s request “is outrageous,” Biden said in a statement, noting that warrants were also issued for Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR, commander of Hamas’s military wing, MOHAMMED DIAB IBRAHIM AL-MASRI, and Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT. “And let me be clear: whatever this prosecutor might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.” The arrest warrant could take months to be issued, and the U.S. isn’t obligated to arrest Netanyahu if that happens — or take any action — since it’s not a party to the ICC (and neither is Israel). U.S. officials maintain that the ICC has no jurisdiction over Israel and that the case is unfair. Still, the tensions around the decision could spell trouble for Biden. For starters, the case could complicate efforts to bring the war to an end, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said in a statement. Negotiators have been trying for months to secure a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, though talks have recently stalled. “This decision does nothing to help, and could jeopardize, ongoing efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement that would get hostages out and surge humanitarian assistance in,” Blinken said. The Biden administration also risks appearing hypocritical if it completely shrugs off the arrest warrant issue. It has weighed in on ICC cases before — and many world leaders will likely call on the White House to respect the court’s decisions. An arrest warrant could be “highly problematic for the Biden administration, as it effectively puts not only Netanyahu, but also Gallant — who the Biden team has viewed as a potential moderate alternative to Netanyahu — in the same category as VLADIMIR PUTIN,” TRITA PARSI, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute think tank, told NatSec Daily. In March 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for the Kremlin leader over the forced transfer of children to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, limiting Putin’s international travels. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has said he plans to invite Netanyahu to address Congress, raising the question of whether the Biden administration would make the rejection of the ICC into a public spectacle. Despite the pressure, the Biden administration will continue to push back against the ICC’s premise for the warrants: war crimes. In a report earlier this month, the State Department didn’t find that Israel has violated international humanitarian law while using U.S. weapons during its war in Gaza. In the near term, be prepared for action from top Republican senators.As loyal NatSec Daily readers know, a dozen Republicans, including Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL and Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), warned the ICC against issuing the warrants. Progressives are a different story: “If Netanyahu comes to address Congress, I would be more than glad to show the ICC the way to the House floor to issue that warrant. Ditto for Hamas leader," Rep. MARK POCAN (D-Wisc.) said in a post on X.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | A CLOSE EYE ON IRAN: The Biden administration is closely watching how Iran reacts to the sudden helicopter crash death of its president, expecting the regional status quo to hold while still wary that one allegation could escalate tensions with Israel, our own ALEX WARD, JONATHAN LEMIRE, LARA SELIGMAN and NAHAL TOOSI report. For now, senior U.S. officials expect few — if any — changes in the way of Iran’s policies. The crash killed EBRAHIM RAISI and Foreign Minister HOSSEIN AMIRABDOLLAHIAN, but Iran’s Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI, 85, remains the country’s top authority. Washington is watching to see how Iran handles the political crisis and its implications for the longer-term contest to replace Khamenei; Raisi had been a contender for that. At the same time, U.S. officials worry that Iran may formally accuse Israel (and Washington) of sabotaging the aircraft, although there’s no evidence anything beyond poor weather was involved. Tehran has blamed U.S. sanctions for limiting access to spare parts and machinery needed to repair the country’s fleet of Bell helicopters. U.S. officials denied any American role in the crash and called the sanctions angle “baseless.” The U.S. also drew criticism from Iran hawks for offering “official condolences” to Iran, a decades-long adversary. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said “offering condolences is the typical practice,” but noted that Raisi had “a lot of blood on his hands.” NEW GAZA PUSHES: Israeli Defense Minister Gallant told national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN today that Israel plans to expand its operation in the southern Gazan city of Rafah, openly defying the Biden administration’s stance on the matter. In a meeting Gallant “emphasized to him Israel’s duty to expand the ground operation in Rafah, to dismantle Hamas and to return the hostages,” he said in a post on X. The White House for months has warned Israel against launching a major invasion of the city, where many Palestinians have taken shelter, without a plan to protect civilians. And Israel has conducted so-called targeted operations that the U.S. says don’t cross the line. Israel’s operations in Rafah are also making the humanitarian aid crisis worse, according to Egyptian Foreign Minister SAMEH SHOUKRY: “Now there is a military presence on the outskirts of the Rafah crossing and military operations that put aid convoys and truck drivers in danger,” he told reporters today, per Reuters’ CLAUDA TANIOS and AIDAN LEWIS. As hundreds of thousands of people continue to flee Rafah, Israeli forces made a new push in central Gaza and bombarded towns in the northern part of the enclave today, Reuters reports. ICYMI — Blinken orders crackdown on Israel-Hamas leaks by our own ALEX WARD ZELENSKYY SAYS SPEED IT UP: Western countries are taking too long to make crucial decisions about military assistance for Ukraine, President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY told Reuters’ MIKE COLLETT-WHITE and DAN PELESCHUK. “Every decision to which we, then later everyone together, comes to is late by around one year,” Zelenskyy said, urging allies to provide more Patriot air defense systems, help Ukraine intercept Russian missiles and allow Kyiv to use Western weapons to strike Moscow’s military equipment near its border. Ukrainian forces still hold some 60 percent of a key city in the northeastern Kharkiv region after bloody urban combat with Russian troops, our own BEN MUNSTER reports. The battle lines in Vovchansk are now the two banks of the Vovcha River that bisects the town, the region’s governor, OLEH SYNIEHUBOV, told Reuters’ ANASTASIIA MALENKO and YULIIA DYSA. Russia also struck a lakeside resort in the region today, killing at least 11 and wounding many more, according to Ukrainian prosecutors. SAUDI HEALTH WORRIES: Saudi Crown Prince MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN has canceled a visit to Japan over worries about Saudi King SALMAN’s health, according to Bloomberg’s CHRISTINE BURKE and YOSHIAKI NOHARA. The 88-year old monarch is being treated for a lung infection. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | TRUMP’S TEAM IN ISRAEL: It isn’t just Biden’s advisers weighing in with Israeli leaders. Former President DONALD TRUMP’s team met with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials in Israel today, Reuters’ GRAM SLATTERY reports. Those present from Trump’s team included former natsec adviser ROBERT O'BRIEN, former Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates JOHN RAKOLTA and former Ambassador to Switzerland ED McMULLEN. They also met with Israeli opposition leader YAIR LAPID and several other Israeli officials, a person familiar with the plans told the outlet. The meetings with Trump’s team shows that Israel’s leaders may be gearing up for either outcome in the November election. “Among the main goals of the trip was to obtain a better understanding of Israel's complex domestic political situation,” Reuters writes.
| | | AGENCY OVER TROUBLED WATER: Water systems are increasingly coming under threat of cyberattacks by foreign countries, the Environmental Protection Agency warned today. The agency is sounding the alarm as hacker groups tied to Russia, China and Iran have increasingly targeted water systems across the United States in recent months. About 70 percent of utilities are failing to meet cybersecurity standards, the agency said in an enforcement alert released today. Officials are calling on even small water systems to improve protections against cyberattacks, noting that hackers have targeted water systems of all sizes. Water utilities rely on computer software to operate treatment plants and distribution systems, the EPA said, and cyberattacks could disrupt water treatment and storage, damage pumps and valves, and alter chemical levels to hazardous amounts.
| | REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING: The Biden administration is looking to get back to its previous schedule of announcing drawdowns of U.S. stocks of munitions and equipment for Ukraine about every two weeks, our own PAUL McLEARY reports (for Pros!). There probably won’t be a big announcement of more U.S. military aid to Ukraine today when Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN kicks off the latest meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels, but there could be a new package later this week, two U.S officials told Paul. That was generally the cadence of packages for much of last year before the money ran out, and before Congress finally passed the $60 billion Ukraine aid package last month. Read: The robots are coming: How Ukraine became the testing ground for AI-powered combat by our own GIAN VOLPICELLI, VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA and LAURA KAYALI
| | | | JOIN 5/22 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF TAXATION: With Trump-era tax breaks set to expire in 2025, whoever wins control of Congress, and the White House will have the ability to revamp the tax code and with it reshape the landscape for business and social policy. Join POLITICO on May 22 for an exploration of what is at stake in the November elections with our panel dissecting the ways presidential candidates and congressional leaders are proposing to reshape our tax rates and incentives. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | CARROT AND STICK FOR GEORGIA: Washington could sign off on a sweeping package of economic and security support for Georgia if its government abandons its increasingly anti-Western rhetoric and stops backsliding on human rights, Gabriel also reports. Under the terms of a draft bill to be introduced in Congress this week by Rep. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) and seen by Gabriel, the U.S. would start talks with the South Caucasus country to open “a robust preferential trade regime,” provided key political criteria were met. Along with improved access to American markets, the bill calls for liberalization of the visa regime for Georgian citizens. It would also mandate officials to develop a military support package for the country. However, the program would only be activated if the U.S. confirms that “Georgia has shown significant and sustained progress towards reinvigorating its democracy, evidenced at minimum by substantially fair and free elections and a balanced pre-election environment.”
| | ‘VERY BAD, VERY FAST’: The top general in Afghanistan during the U.S. withdrawal from Kabul in 2021 said he repeatedly warned the Biden administration that the pullout would get “very bad, very fast. In closed-door testimony before the Republican-led House Foreign Affairs Committee last month, retired Gen. AUSTIN SCOTT MILLER said he privately warned a Marine Corps commander who was charged with planning for a potential evacuation to prepare for “really adverse conditions,” per the interview transcript. Some 20 witnesses have met with the committee about the withdrawal so far, and HFAC Chair Rep. MIKE McCAUL (R-Texas) is expected to issue a report on the investigation’s findings this summer. LAI SWIPES ACROSS THE STRAIT: Taiwan’s newly inaugurated president is mincing no words toward China as he takes office, according to BBC News’ RUPERT WINGFIELD-HAYES. Speaking at his inauguration in Taipei this morning, Taiwanese President LAI CHING-TE blasted China’s provocative military moves as the “greatest strategic challenge to global peace and stability" and urged China to stop threatening the self-governing Island. Lai, a member of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, is seen as a more Washington-friendly leader who wants to shore up the island’s with its critical and unofficial allies in the West. There’s no love lost between Lai and his counterparts in Beijing. At a Foreign Ministry press conference in Beijing this morning, spokesperson WANG WENBIN called Taiwanese independence “a dead-end.” "Regardless of the pretext or the banner under which it is pursued, the push for Taiwan independence is destined to fail,” Wang continued. China also sanctioned Boeing and two defense contractors for doing business with Taipei ahead of the inauguration this weekend, according to The Associated Press.
| | | |   | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — LEWIS “SCOOTER” LIBBY is joining the Foundation for Defense of Democracies as a distinguished fellow, focusing on issues including U.S. national security strategy, defense policy, the future of the Middle East and Asia, and the threats posed by Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. He previously served as chief of staff to Vice President DICK CHENEY and as senior vice president at the Hudson Institute. — LAUREN DICKEY is now senior manager for geopolitical intelligence at HARMAN International and a non-resident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She most recently was acting director of the Taiwan desk at DOD. — President LUIS ABINADER won re-election in the Dominican Republic, setting the stage for a second term dominated by Haiti, anti-corruption pushes and greater relationship-building with Washington.
| | — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: The International Criminal Court just saved Benjamin Netanyahu — CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM, The Economist: The likely next president outlines her plan to make Mexicans safer — AVNER GVARYAHU, The New York Times: Occupation has corrupted the humanity of Israel’s military
| | — German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: Discussion on “A Smart Specialization Strategy for Ukraine” — Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, 9:30 a.m.: Defense department space activities in review of the defense authorization request for FY2025 and the future years defense program — The Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Review of the President's FY2025 budget request for the army — The German Marshall Fund of the United States and MITRE, 10 a.m.: Taiwan dynamics in this decisive decade — The Asia Society Policy Institute, 11 a.m.: Rapid reactions to the Taiwan presidential inauguration — The Wilson Center's Africa Program, 11 a.m.: Enhancing the voice of Sudanese civilians on issues key to ending the war and restoring peace — The Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: The Washington NATO summit: Ukraine and transatlantic security — Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: A review of the President's FY2025 budget request for the U.S. Department of State — The United States Institute of Peace, 5 p.m.: “Reflections on diplomacy and peace," including "how nations can work together to build a more peaceful and prosperous world" with former Algerian Foreign Minister LAKHDAR BRAHIMI Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who should also be issued an arrest warrant. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we trust to lock her up.
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