| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Dissent could negatively affect public perception of President Joe Biden's administration among potential voters. And the White House has reason to be worried, especially about its young constituents. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP | With help from Joseph Gedeon, Kyle Duggan and Steven Overly Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric As of today, more than 130 lawyers inside and outside President JOE BIDEN's administration have signed a letter arguing that Israel has violated U.S. and international humanitarian law in the latest push to end U.S. arms sales to the nation, one of the organizers told NatSec Daily. But the White House likely isn’t losing sleep over internal dissent, despite major headlines whenever an official resigns or pens an anonymous letter bashing its policy. High levels of internal dissent can lower morale and increase the likelihood of leaks from frustrated staffers, AARON DAVID MILLER, a former Middle East peace negotiator, told NatSec Daily. But that’s usually the extent of the repercussions. “The circle of decision-making on issues related to Israel is so small and concentrated, and the options so narrow, that it hardly matters in terms of influencing let alone changing administration policy,” Miller said. Only four administration officials have publicly resigned over the administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza war, none of them particularly high-ranking. Biden cares most about the opinions of his inner circle — top Middle East official BRETT McGURK, counselor STEVE RICCHETTI, and senior advisers ANITA DUNN and MIKE DONILON to name a few — and they haven’t erred from the president’s side in the slightest, at least publicly. When national security decisions are hashed out in the White House Situation Room, top administration officials aren’t going to factor in anonymous pushback from within the bureaus, MICHAEL ALLEN, a former National Security Council senior director in the Bush administration, told NatSec Daily. “The meeting would be tactically, ‘What are we doing to support the president's strategy?’” Allen said, who assumes “there's going to be no discussion of internal dissent.” In other words, it’s unlikely that the letter — even though dozens of the administration’s lawyers believe the U.S. should stop sending weapons to Israel — will affect Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN’s report to Congress by May 8 on the matter. Other letters, like those signed by hundreds of former Obama-Biden staffers critiquing the current administration, aren’t expected to affect decisions either. However, dissent could negatively affect public perception of the Biden administration among potential voters. And the White House has reason to be worried, especially about its young constituents. Many college campuses across the country are in turmoil over pro-Palestinian protests, leading to sharp confrontations between local law enforcement and students who question Washington’s ties to Israel amid the war in Gaza. The protests will likely die down as the school year ends, but headline-grabbing protests from young activists may be a challenge for the administration leading up to November. The generational divide on Israel-Palestine between young and older voters has also been widening since the war began. It’s unclear how much that affects Biden, but the polls aren’t looking good for him: Among voters 18-34 years old, the incumbent is 11 percentage points behind Trump, according to a CNN poll published Sunday. In 2020, about 60 percent of young voters cast a ballot for Biden. Though the White House probably won’t consider internal backlash, experts believe the public outrage could worsen: “It is more fuel to the fire for people who are already upset,” Allen said.
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The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security. The most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter in the world is helping those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | SUDAN FAMINE CONCERNS: U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan TOM PERRIELLO warned lawmakers today that the war-torn African country is on a “default trajectory to famine” and that international aid efforts are struggling to provide food to many regions of the country. “The world has treated Sudan largely as an invisible crisis,” Perriello said at a sparsely attended Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, adding that the situation in Sudan is getting “more factionalized, more polarized, more likely to bring in regional actors.” Sudan has been mired in a bloody civil war over the last year that has deteriorated into a proxy conflict between African and Gulf countries looking to extend their influence on the continent. Millions have been displaced and international observers have warned that Sudan’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have committed heinous crimes, including targeted sexual violence. EREZ CROSSING OPEN: Israel opened the sole crossing on the Gaza Strip’s northern edge, allowing more aid trucks to pass into the strip following U.S. pressure, Reuters’ CHRISTOPHE VAN DER PERRE reports. International aid agencies have been calling for the Erez crossing to be opened for months, as hunger is believed to be most severe among those in the northern part of the territory. Israel said last month that it would reopen the crossing after its deadly strike on World Central Kitchen aid workers, which sparked intense backlash from Washington. SecState Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU for almost three hours today, reiterating the Biden administration’s “clear position” on a potential Israeli invasion of Rafah, per a State readout. Few details were made public, but Blinken’s comments to Netanyahu — likely saying that the U.S. doesn’t support an invasion of the southern city without a plan to protect the 1.4 million Palestinians sheltering there — come a day after the prime minister said Israel would move forward with the operation regardless of whether a cease-fire deal is reached. Speaking of the deal, Blinken said, “There is a proposal on the table, and as we’ve said, no delays, no excuses,” before meeting with Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG today. The Biden administration appears increasingly worried about the humanitarian impact in Gaza, as it’s considering bringing some Palestinians to the U.S. as refugees, which would give them a permanent safe haven, according to an internal U.S. document obtained by CBS News’ CAMILO MONTOYA-GALVEZ Tuesday night. CHASIV YAR TROUBLES: Ukrainian forces defending a strategic stronghold under threat by Russian troops said they’re still awaiting badly needed U.S.-provided ammunition, Reuters’ VOLODYMYR PAVLOV reports. Commander OLEH SHYRIAIEV told Reuters that more shells are needed to help prevent Russian troops from taking the eastern Ukrainian Town of Chasiv Yar in the coming weeks. “I hope we receive artillery shells soon,” he said. “I witnessed events a year ago when Wagner was advancing. We received cluster munitions which changed the situation significantly and we managed to successfully counter-attack.” Chasiv Yar is the area to watch right now: Taking the town would help Russian forces gain higher ground and launch attacks against towns to the west. Drone footage obtained by The Associated Press’ JILL LAWLESS and ILLIA NOVIKOV shows that Russian attacks on the town over the past months have pounded it “into an apocalyptic vista … with barely a building left intact.” IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | CHINA PREPS FOR TRUMP: China has begun planning for Trump’s potential return to office, bracing for a resurgence of the turmoil that defined the U.S.-China relationship during his first stint in office, according to the Wall Street Journal’s LINGLING WEI. While Beijing reportedly sees some upsides in the return of Trump, including a decline in the U.S. position as a singular world power, they have calculated that a second Trump administration would likely create more pain for China. Chinese leaders are especially watchful of Trump’s cabinet picks, including figures like former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO and U.S. Trade Representative ROBERT LIGHTHIZER that could escalate ongoing trade tensions. Chinese leader XI JINPING has also purportedly worried that Trump’s fondness for Putin could undercut the close relationship that has developed between the Chinese and Russian leaders as of late. The relationship between Beijing and Washington has also not been without tensions and pitfalls under Biden. But Chinese leaders have reportedly appreciated the administration’s efforts to dial back rancor and not antagonize them unnecessarily, especially over Taiwan.
| | | | NEW AI SECURITY BILL: A cross-party duo of Senate stalwarts will introduce new legislation today aimed at heading off major security risks associated with artificial intelligence, our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) scoop. The Secure Artificial Intelligence Act of 2024 from Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and THOM TILLIS (R–N.C.) bill would require the National Institute of Standards and Technology and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to update their respective cybersecurity bug tracking systems with new processes for reporting bugs within AI systems. It would also require the NSA to set up a test bed for academics and private researchers to study ways to mitigate AI risks, encourage the development of new guidance for locking down the AI supply chain, and establish a public database to record AI safety and security incidents. POLITICO TECH PODCAST: JACOB HELBERG was influential in pushing for the law that forces the sale of TikTok. Now, he wants Congress to prepare for a future conflict with China, one that has artificial intelligence at the center. Helberg, who is a senior policy adviser at Palantir Technologies and sits on the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, joins POLITICO Tech host STEVEN OVERLY to talk about the next frontier in U.S. tech competition with China. Listen here.
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | CANADA’S NATO WOES: Canadian Defense Minister BILL BLAIR said he had a tough time trying to convince the bean counters in the federal government to hit its NATO defense-spending commitment, our own KYLE DUGGAN writes in. It was a struggle to convince not just his Cabinet colleagues, but also the Canadian public, that the country had to “meet this magical threshold of 2 percent” of GDP spent on defense. Canada’s inability to reach the spending mark has frustrated NATO members, 18 of whom are on track to hit the goal. “It was really hard to convince people that that was a worthy goal, that was some noble standard we had to meet, because nobody knows what that means,” Blair said at a Canadian Global Affairs Institute event today. “They don’t know how much money that is and they didn’t know what it is we’re going to spend the money on.” TREASURY TACKLING MOSCOW: The Treasury Department unveiled nearly 300 new sanctions on international supplies of military equipment technology to Russia, our own MICHAEL STRATFORD reports (for Pros!). The sanctions focus on Moscow’s military-industrial base and chemical and biological weapons programs, as well as companies and people in third countries helping Russia obtain what it needs for weapons production. Those countries include Azerbaijan, Belgium, China, Slovakia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. On that note, Russia has ordered up a massive new tranche of weapons in the wake of the U.S. aid package to Ukraine, according to Reuters’ GUY FAULCONBRIDGE and LIDIA KELLY.
| | MUST INCLUDE ISRAEL: It would be difficult to pass a mutual defense agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia if normalization with Israel isn’t included in the deal, Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said today. Graham’s analysis came in response to an article by The Guardian’s JULIAN BORGER today, which detailed how Washington and Riyadh have drafted a set of security and tech-sharing agreements that were supposed to be linked to a broader Middle East normalization deal. But without a cease-fire in Gaza, the Saudis are pushing for a “more modest plan B, which excludes the Israelis,” the outlet writes. “If there is a mutual defense agreement negotiated in the form of a treaty, it needs 67 votes in the Senate to become binding,” Graham tweeted, explaining that the exclusion of Israel would likely torpedo any deal. “This has been true since the very beginning and remains so today.” ICYMI — Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) is working to attach his PAID OFF Act, which seeks to close loopholes in the Foreign Agents Registration Act and foreign lobbying disclosure, to the FAA reauthorization in the coming weeks.
| | | |   | | | | | CHINA’S BAD POLL NUMBERS: Over 90 percent of Americans see China as a rival or adversary of the United States, and a whopping eight in 10 Americans hold a negative opinion of China, according to a new study from the Pew Research Center. GEORGIA’S BAD DREAM: Georgia’s parliament passed a controversial “foreign agent” law in the face of massive protests in the country’s capital, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports. Sixty-three protesters were arrested in Georgia’s capital Tbilisi last night, according to Georgian officials. But public outrage continues over the “foreign agent” law, which would require NGOs and media outlets that receive more than 20 percent of their funding from abroad to register as agents of foreign influence. Critics have compared it to similar legislation in neighboring Russia used to crack down on civil society.= The vote on the bill comes as the South Caucasus country has tried to advance in its bid for EU membership, despite concerns that the country is experiencing democratic backsliding and not seriously pursuing reforms desired by Brussels. “I am disappointed by the rapid political shift taking place in the country, which is at odds with the wishes of the Georgian people,” Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) said in a statement today after meeting with Georgian Ambassador to the U.S. DAVID ZALKALIANI.
| | — Booz Allen Hamilton hired Retired Vice Adm. ROY KITCHENER and Retired Maj. Gen. DAVID GAEDECKE as senior executive advisors within the firm’s global defense business.
| | — DENNIS ROSS and DAVID MAKOVSKY, Foreign Affairs: Why Israel should declare a unilateral cease-fire in Gaza — LUKE COFFEY, Foreign Policy: Turmoil in Georgia could draw in Russia — ISHAAN THAROOR, The Washington Post: The delusions behind Biden’s plan for Middle East peace
| | — People's Vision for Reform in Saudi Arabia, the Middle East Democracy Center, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the MENA Rights Group and ALQST, 9 a.m.: Quest for democracy in Saudi Arabia — Middle East Institute, 9 a.m.: Managing regional escalation amid the war in Gaza — Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: The big bang at 20: central and eastern European perspectives on EU enlargement" — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: A hearing on worldwide threats — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What's going on with North Korea-Russia cooperation? — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: A virtual book discussion on “Collisions: The Origins of the War in Ukraine and the New Global Instability" — Brookings Institution's Center for Asia Policy Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Emerging technologies and geopolitical divides: the transformation of the U.S.-Japan alliance — Wilson Center's Latin America Program, 11 a.m.: The Lithium Triangle: to be or not to be successful — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: A discussion on "North American Economic Security in an Era of Geopolitical Uncertainty," focusing on "enhancing cross-continent trade and investment to the mutual benefit of all three countries" — Defense One, 2 p.m.: Service branch spotlight: Navy — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: A book discussion on "The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History" — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 4:15 p.m.: Stress test: the toll of the war in Ukraine on the Kremlin Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who we never listen to. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who has our undivided attention. CORRECTION: Tuesday's edition of NatSec Daily misstated when the PAID OFF Act was introduced. It was released last year.
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