Big business and the nation’s largest oil lobby are gearing up to save a landmark piece of legislation from oblivion should Republicans retake the White House next year. Ready for a twist? It’s the same signature Biden climate statute they largely opposed two years ago. Whether the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute would hold any sway with a President Donald Trump 2.0 is certainly hard to say, writes Kelsey Brugger. But their interest in preserving the Inflation Reduction Act — or at least the portions that would aid the industry — showcases the way that President Joe Biden’s hundreds of billions of dollars in grants, loans and tax breaks have potentially scrambled traditional business and political alliances. “It’s Donald Trump — you never really know,” Tom Pyle, president of the conservative American Energy Alliance and former Trump transition team lead, told Kelsey. Both trade groups’ campaign arms overwhelmingly back Republican candidates, and oil executives in particular have been eyeing a series of policy victories they hope to win in a second Trump presidency. But they’re also gearing up to protect major parts of the climate law, amid questions about whether Trump will seek to repeal it wholesale. “Business is going to defend the Inflation Reduction Act,” said Christopher Guith, senior vice president at the Chamber’s Global Energy Institute. One reason for this fealty: The law has already spurred billions of dollars in new private investments, including many in GOP-led districts. Fossil fuel companies are especially fond of IRA provisions such as those that boosted hydrogen and carbon capture tax credits. (Oil and gas companies have begun to embrace technologies that could keep their businesses afloat as the nation transitions to cleaner fuel.) But big business holds less power over Republican lawmakers than it once did, calling into question whether the Chamber and API throwing their weight behind the climate law will matter. “I think the Chamber of Commerce has lost an extraordinary amount of influence in the Republican conference,” Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio told Kelsey. But he added: “Obviously, if you hear from a local company in your constituency, that matters a lot.” Many Republican lawmakers may indeed be hearing from local companies, given the number of GOP-led districts — at least 37 of them — enjoying clean energy investments from Biden’s climate law. Attempts to repeal too many of those boons could prove politically dicey. Perhaps for that reason, Rep. Garret Graves of Louisiana, considered a leader in the GOP on energy issues, recently said Republicans might take a “scalpel” to the climate law rather than a sledgehammer. Then again, Graves’ own future in Congress may be dicey because of a new redistricting map set to be in place for November’s election.
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