| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
President Joe Biden walks off with first lady Jill Biden following the CNN Presidential Debate last night. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images | The mass panic among Democrats began last night about 12 minutes into the debate. President JOE BIDEN was answering a question about the national debt. He confused trillionaires and billionaires but corrected himself quickly. He stumbled over millions and billions but again fixed it. Then he started to tick off the things he could pay for with his tax plan: paying down the debt, child care, elder care, strengthening the health care system. Then something went wrong. As he reached for a final example, he lost his train of thought, stumbled around and then just paused while staring at the floor. When he popped his head up, it seemed like he had recovered his thought. Instead, he blurted out this nonsensical line: “We finally beat Medicare!” Our phones blew up, just like yours. A sample:
- “I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue,” said a Democratic House member.
- “I’m on a lot of chains of people gaming out how Biden withdraws. Need open convention. He has to go. Who are the grandees who could tell Biden to go? [BARACK] OBAMA? [BILL] CLINTON? [AL] GORE? [NANCY] PELOSI? [JIM] CLYBURN?” a former senior Obama official wrote.
- “I think there are short lists being made. [Michigan Gov. GRETCHEN] WHITMER, [Kentucky Gov. ANDY] BESHEAR, [North Carolina Gov. ROY] COOPER, [California Gov. GAVIN] NEWSOM,” a Democratic operative said.
- A Clinton alum sent a trainwreck GIF.
The second half of the debate was mildly better for Biden, and his campaign insisted that their dial-testing focus groups showed improvement. “Generally, as we went through the entire debate on all of Trump's answers, the dials moved downward,” Biden campaign pollster MOLLY MITCHELL told us — citing such metrics as which candidate was most presidential and most likable and best addressed your concerns on the issues, where Biden outpaced Trump by more than 20 points, she said. But when it comes to the focus group of Democratic insiders who watched Biden while holding their breath, it was too little too late to allay the deep sense of foreboding that rippled through their ranks last night.
|  People are seen in the spin room at Georgia Institute of Technology's McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, Georgia, last night. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | We were in the Atlanta spin room afterwards, and the delegation of Biden surrogates did not even make an attempt to defend Biden’s debate performance, instead switching the subject to his record — which Biden had just so spectacularly failed to defend for 90 minutes. One excuse for the poor performance circulating mid-debate from Biden world was that the candidate had a cold. But a senior White House aide on the ground with the president in Atlanta Thursday told us that Biden was engaged with the crowds he spoke to outside and looked strong. They added the real culprit was the lack of an audience, which the Biden campaign had demanded. Some Biden aides found the performance so concerning that, we’re told, they spent last night updating their LinkedIns just in case. Even VP KAMALA HARRIS conceded that things didn’t go great. “It was a slow start, that’s obvious to everyone,” she said in an interview with CNN. “I’m not going to debate that.” She went on to discuss Biden’s successful record versus Trump’s. The response to what’s wrong with that defense was articulated by former Sen. CLAIRE McCASKILL (D-Mo.): "Joe Biden had one thing he had to do tonight and he didn't do it," she said on MSNBC. "He had one thing he had to accomplish, and that was reassure America that he was up to the job at his age. And he failed at that tonight."
|  The second half of the debate was mildly better for Joe Biden, and his campaign insisted that their dial-testing focus groups showed improvement. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | But remember: This is not the first time Democrats have had the should-we-dump-Biden discussion in their private group chats and in anonymous texts to reporters. Last year, a few prominent strategists — such as DAVID AXELROD and JAMES CARVILLE — tried to sound the alarm. But only one elected official, Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), gave voice to the party’s widespread doubts about the wisdom of Biden running again. Most Democrats stayed quiet and closed ranks. The question now is: Will that taboo finally be broken? Or will Biden aides once again keep the bedwetters silenced? The left op-ed pages are bubbling over with columnists saying Biden should step down. Biden cares about the views of the opinion elite, so those pieces must sting. (Et tu, FRIEDMAN?) But for the debate to actually matter outside of the pages of the Atlantic and the Times, two things probably have to happen: (1) prominent elected Democrats or high-ranking former officials need to voice these concerns in public, and (2) top Democrats need to pressure Biden in private. Our Jonathan Martin reports on some developments on the latter. One House Democrat told JMart, “The movement to convince Biden to not run is real.” This member said Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES “should consider ‘a combined effort’ to nudge Biden out of the race.” Another person, a well-connected lobbyist noted Jeffries and Obama are set to raise money for House Democrats today in NYC. The key names we kept hearing last night were listed in three concentric rings of influence around the president, starting with (1) his family, particularly wife JILL and sister VALERIE BIDEN, (2) his closest advisers (TED KAUFMAN, TOM DONILON, RON KLAIN, STEVE RICCHETTI and ANITA DUNN), and then (3) the bold-faced electeds and former electeds whose opinions he couldn’t ignore (Bill and HILLARY CLINTON, Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, Clyburn, Delaware Sen. CHRIS COONS).
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California Gov. Gavin Newsom is swarmed by journalists in the spin room at Georgia Institute of Technology's McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | But after the initial wave of “dump Biden” banter crested last night, some of the savvier Dems we pinged were resigned to the fact that the storm would pass and the “West Wing” fan-fic scenarios about an open convention in Chicago would end with a whimper. Here is how one of the most seasoned political pros in Dem politics framed the more likely way forward: “First, it was a pretty shocking performance by Biden, obviously. And any thoughtful person has to ask themself: Should this man be leader of the free world for another 7 months, let alone 55? But he’s not going to step aside and there is no clear process for replacing him. So we’ll have a few days of frenzy. Then everyone will realize the main contours of the race haven’t really changed. We’ll all get back in our corners, with R’s watching Biden drool on continuous loop and D’s claiming that Trump’s outrageous statements were the real travesty.” Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your odds on Biden remaining the Democratic nominee: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute: For nearly four years, Americans have faced the pain of high inflation and global conflict.
The American Petroleum Institute’s Policy Roadmap contains five actions policy makers can take today to secure energy leadership, protect consumers and help reduce inflation. Americans deserve answers. | | | THE BEST IN DEBATE COVERAGE … POLITICO: “‘WTF’: Panicked Dems start looking for alternatives to Biden,” by Elena Schnider, Adam Wren and Lauren Egan … “Dems freak out over Biden’s debate performance: ‘Biden is toast,’” by Lisa Kashinsky, Adam Cancryn and Eugene … “Here’s how Democrats could replace Biden,” by Steven Shepard NYT: “A Fumbling Performance, and a Panicking Party,” by Peter Baker … “‘It’s Frightening’: Democratic Voters Worried by Biden’s Struggles in Debate,” by Shawn Hubler, J. David Goodman, Eduardo Medina and Campbell Robertson WaPo: “Democrats panic over Biden’s debate performance, doubt his future,” by Ashley Parker … “The Great Democratic Freakout is upon us,” by Karen Tumulty WSJ: “Biden’s Disastrous Night Stands to Alter Course of the Election,” by Molly Ball CNN: “Flash Poll: Majority of debate watchers say Trump won debate over Biden,” by Ariel Edwards-Levy AP: “Robert Kennedy didn’t make the debate stage but he answered the same questions during a rival event,” by Jonathan Cooper and Christopher Weber 2025 DREAMING — “The Fight for the Next Biden Administration Is Beginning Now,” by Michael Schaffer: “[Third Way] is part of an underappreciated new trend at Beltway policy organizations, where white papers are giving way to a kind of wonk fantasy football as think tanks create in-house government HR shops that aim to have a cadre of ideologically simpatico political appointees ready to go on day one.” CANNON FODDER — Judge AILEEN CANNON ruled yesterday that she will review an essential legal building block for the obstruction charges against Trump in his classified documents criminal case, per CNN’s Katelyn Polantz. Cannon said she wants further hearings about what prosecutors can use, even though another judge has already signed off on the information, which could threaten the prosecution (or certainly delay it) anew. NAIL-BITER — Rep. CELESTE MALOY’s (R-Utah) lead over primary challenger COLBY JENKINS has fallen to less than 1 percentage point as more votes come in from Tuesday’s election, per the Utah News Dispatch’s Katie McKellar. FIRST AMENDMENT WATCH — Oklahoma State Superintendent RYAN WALTERS yesterday announced that he’d require all public schools to teach the Bible as a historical document. More from The Oklahoman NEWS YOU CAN USE — The CDC said yesterday that it will recommend all Americans 6 months or older receive a Covid vaccine booster this fall. More from the NYT
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at 9 a.m. to take up the Defense, Homeland Security and State-Foreign Operations appropriations bills, with votes expected at 9:45 a.m. The Senate is out. 3 things to watch …
- The House GOP push to make further political hay out of special counsel ROBERT HUR’s probe of Biden’s classified documents handling is now a three-track affair. The Judiciary Committee voted yesterday to hold Biden ghostwriter MARK ZWONITZER in contempt for refusing to comply with a subpoena, following a similar move against AG MERRICK GARLAND. In a second push, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON said the House plans to go to court next week to procure tapes of Biden’s interviews with Hur. And later today, Rep. ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fla.) is expected to force a vote holding Garland in “inherent contempt” — and thus theoretically subject to potential arrest by the House (emphasis on the “theoretically”).
- The latest House Freedom Caucus drama concerns the fate of Rep. WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio), who endorsed against HFC Chair BOB GOOD (R-Va.) in his recent primary that he currently is on track to lose. Some caucus members want Davidson out for his betrayal, but it’s not that simple, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney report for Inside Congress: Booting Davidson would involve some procedural gymnastics involving the caucus’ bylaws; one possibility is simply barring members from endorsing against fellow members in the future.
- From HFC drama to HFAC drama: The future GOP leadership of the House Foreign Affairs Committee is in question, Bloomberg Government’s Maeve Sheehy reports. Three panel members — Reps. DARRELL ISSA (R-Calif.), ANN WAGNER (R-Mo.) and JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) — are all interested in seeking to succeed Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) as the top Republican. But not so fast: McCaul is indicating he will seek a term-limit waiver — meaning we probably won’t know until late November whether there will be a race at all.
At the White House Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will speak at the Stonewall National Monument Visitor Center’s grand opening ceremony in NYC at 4:30 p.m. On the trail The Bidens will hold a campaign rally at noon in Raleigh, North Carolina, with rappers FAT JOE and E-40. They’ll also take part in a campaign reception in NYC at night. Trump will hold a campaign rally at 3 p.m. in Chesapeake, Virginia.
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An amphibious ship and Marines went to the Mediterranean this week, positioning themselves closer to the region if the U.S. decides it needs to evacuate Americans. | Hussein Malla/AP Photo | AMERICA AND THE WORLD MIDDLE EAST LATEST — As fears mount of a major escalation in an Israel-Hezbollah war, the U.S. is already starting to make plans. An amphibious ship and Marines went to the Mediterranean this week, positioning themselves closer to the region if the U.S. decides it needs to evacuate Americans, NBC’s Courtney Kube, Carol Lee, Mosheh Gains and Monica Alba scooped. The Pentagon movement is also intended to act as a deterrent to the warring sides from escalating further. Sounds familiar: Despite U.S. pressure, Israel is increasingly planning for a major air and potential ground assault, according to U.S. officials, if diplomacy doesn’t work. In Israel’s other ongoing war (against Hamas), U.S., U.N. and Israeli leaders met this week to talk about getting food aid distribution going again in Gaza, NBC’s Kube and Gains scooped. As hunger worsens for many Palestinians, many millions of pounds of assistance have been delayed, but the U.S. says it’s optimistic the aid will start moving soon. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is planning to un-pause shipments of massive 500-lb. bombs to Israel, Axios’ Barak Ravid reports. Once the Israeli operation in Rafah comes to an official close in the coming weeks, the weapons will be on their way — though the 2,000-lb. bombs are still under review. And in yet another war — in Ukraine — the U.S. and Israel are close to landing a deal for Israel to send up to eight Patriot batteries to Kyiv, per WSJ’s Nancy Youssef and Gordon Lubold. HOW IT HAPPENED — “Assange plea came after warning that U.S. would lose extradition fight,” by WaPo’s Salvador Rizzo, Rachel Weiner and Ellen Nakashima POLICY CORNER ANOTHER BIG IMMIGRATION MOVE — Biden will grant temporary protected status to Haitians who have arrived in the U.S. since November 2022, shielding about 300,000 people from deportation and giving them the ability to work here, NYT’s Hamed Aleaziz scooped. CLIMATE FILES — “U.S. agency approves a giant natural gas export project — despite Biden’s pause,” by Joel Kirkland and Carlos Anchondo: “Under the FERC permit approved Thursday, the company can build the export facility but will have to wait for the Energy Department to issue a separate permit to ship the gas overseas.” BIDEN’S STUDENT LOAN STRUGGLE — “Legal setbacks deal Biden new election-year student debt conundrum,” by Michael Stratford and Rebecca Carballo ALL POLITICS THE NEW GOP — “Phil Lyman continues casting doubt on results of Utah’s 2024 Republican gubernatorial primary,” by The Salt Lake Tribune’s Bryan Schott: “Two days after his loss to Gov. SPENCER COX in the Republican gubernatorial primary, PHIL LYMAN is still suggesting the election may not be on the up and up and is refusing to concede.”
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute:   | | | |  Yesterday, the Supreme Court's conservative majority said the SEC had to bring its penalties to jury trials. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images | JUDICIARY SQUARE SCOTUS FALLOUT — Two opinions issued yesterday by the Supreme Court, while somewhat narrowly tailored in their specifics, could have wide-ranging effects across the federal government and the country. A swath of federal agencies could lose the ability to bring enforcement cases against law-breakers after the court’s conservative majority said the SEC had to bring its penalties to jury trials, Alex Guillén reports. Experts say the enforcement programs at the EPA, CFPB, Labor Department and NLRB, as they’ve been constituted for decades in some cases, could now be threatened by challenges. If defendants in those actions are entitled to — and seek — jury trials, many agencies could lack the resources to go that route. But the conservative justices said in the opinion that their ruling was narrow, and ironically, experts tell Alex that the SEC itself might not be upended much. And though the court allowed emergency abortions to proceed in Idaho, carving out an exception to the state’s total ban, doctors who perform those procedures and patients who need them remain in limbo more broadly, WSJ’s Jennifer Calfas and Betsy McKay write. The justices did not clarify the question of when doctors have to perform abortions for women in critical condition under the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act. Sidestepping that major issue, the Supreme Court instead returned the case to a lower court, keeping the uncertain status quo in place. More top reads:
- Mark territory: Behind the scenes, MARK MEADOWS has been fighting in court for months to obtain a huge cache of his White House records that he hopes will help in his Georgia criminal case, Kyle Cheney reports.
2024 WATCH VEEPSTAKES — At a Zoom fundraiser this week, GOP donors could ponied up $25,000 a pop to pose a question to North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM, Bloomberg’s Stephanie Lai reports. THE Z FACTOR — “Do the Democrats Have a Gen Z Problem?” by The New Yorker’s Tammy Kim: “[Voters of Tomorrow] had big plans: to grow chapters in key states, broadcast the policies most relevant to young people, and send millions of text messages to potential voters. … [But in] multiple polls, startling numbers of young voters, especially men, were distancing themselves from the Democrats.” SPOILER ALERT — JILL STEIN will be eligible to get matching funds for her campaign, the FEC announced yesterday. THE ECONOMY SIGNS OF SLOWDOWN — “The government marked down personal spending — the main engine of the economy — by half a percentage point to an annualized 1.5% in the first quarter,” Bloomberg’s Vince Golle reports. “Separate releases on Thursday showed declines in orders and shipments of certain business equipment, the widest trade deficit in two years, weakness in the job market and a slide in homebuying.” CONGRESS INCOMING — “Biden prepares emergency funding request to Congress for Baltimore bridge collapse,” by Daniella Diaz, Nick Wu and Caitlin Emma BEYOND THE BELTWAY ON THE BALLOT — A California referendum will ask voters whether they want to ban slavery in the state this fall after legislators passed it yesterday, Emily Schultheis reports. It’s mainly targeted at forced prison labor. TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Leigh Ann Caldwell, Eugene Daniels, Nikole Killion and Mark Leibovich. SUNDAY SO FAR … MSNBC “The Weekend”: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. NBC “Meet the Press”: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum … Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.). Panel: Cristina Londoño, Jennifer Palmieri, Marc Short and Chuck Todd. CBS “Face the Nation”: Catherine Russell … Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) … Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) … Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). Legal panel: Carrie Severino and Elizabeth Wydra. Panel: Richard Fowler, Mary Katharine Ham, Mollie Hemingway and Stef Kight. Sunday special: Jonathan Turley. CNN “State of the Union”: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). Panel: Scott Jennings, Ashley Allison, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Kate Bedingfield. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-Md.). Panel: David Drucker, Julie Mason and Sabrina Siddiqui. ABC “This Week”: Anthony Fauci. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Jen Psaki and Bill Kristol.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Shelby Busch, head of Arizona’s GOP convention delegation, threatened to “lynch” an election official. (She claimed she wasn’t serious.) Alex Jones’ money can’t start being collected by Sandy Hook families yet. Ali Abbasi’s “The Apprentice” Donald Trump biopic is getting closer to distribution. IN MEMORIAM — “Kinky Friedman, provocative satirist and one-time gubernatorial candidate, dies at 79,” by The Texas Tribune’s Emily Foxhall and Joshua Fechter: “Friedman launched a boisterous campaign for governor in 2006, decades after forming the band Kinky Friedman and The Texas Jewboys.” — “‘Teaching the Socratic method with a bullwhip’: Congress remembers legend Judy Schneider,” by Roll Call’s Justin Papp: “[H]er expertise and deep faith in Congress earned her iconic status. She spent 40 years at the Congressional Research Service and mentored many people along the way.” OUT AND ABOUT — The i2Coalition’s 2024 Internet Leadership Awards yesterday afternoon honored Laurie Locascio, Brewster Kahle, Justin Paine and Michele Neylon. Also SPOTTED: Christian Dawson, Alvaro Alvarez, Miles Harrison, Joe Catapano, Marjory Blumenthal, Elizabeth Frazee, Matt Schruers, David Grossman, Chris Lewis, Angie Kronenberg and Matt Eagan. MEDIA MOVES — Sewell Chan will be the next executive editor of the Columbia Journalism Review. He’ll be succeeded in his current role as editor-in-chief of The Texas Tribune by Matthew Watkins. TRANSITIONS — David Chavern will be president and CEO of the American Council of Life Insurers. He currently is president and CEO of the Consumer Brands Association. … AstraZeneca’s federal affairs team is adding Katie Jones as head of U.S. federal affairs and Danielle Fredericks as head of U.S. state and federal public health policy, and elevating Rachel Ross to director of policy comms. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Elon Musk … Ziad Ojakli … POLITICO’s Alex Keeney, Eli Reyes and Scott Waldman … Erin McPike … RNC’s Richard Walters … Carolyn Coda of Invariant … Paul Bonicelli … Allison Aprahamian of the House China committee … Megan Bloomgren … Bill Hulse of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce … Mike Lurie … Kate Mills of Monument Advocacy … Rob Tappan … Al-Monitor’s Elizabeth Hagedorn … former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta … Jesse Holland … former Reps. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) and Donna Edwards (D-Md.) … Laura Tyson … Bill Greener III … Stephanie Benedict … Pete Nonis … Marc Kasowitz Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute: For nearly four years, the American people have faced the pain of high inflation and global conflict. Now, more than ever, it’s time to end political gamesmanship. Let’s work together on solutions that help American consumers and secure our energy future.
At a time of persistent inflation and geopolitical instability, the American people need more affordable energy and less partisanship. Here are five actions policymakers can take now that will make a difference.
a. Protect consumer choice
b. Bolster geopolitical strength
c. Leverage our abundant natural resources
d. Reform our broken permitting system
e. Advance sensible tax policy
Let’s work together on solutions that help address the consequences of inflation, while securing America’s energy future. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
