| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Joe Gould and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Then-President Donald Trump and then-Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020, in Nashville, Tennessee. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images | With help from Betsy Woodruff Swan, Connor O’Brien, Miles J. Herszenhorn, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing and Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric NatSec Daily has been beating the drum that 2024 is the foreign policy election. Tonight, we get to test that hypothesis. At 9 p.m., President JOE BIDEN and former President DONALD TRUMP will face off in their first debate in four years. A lot has changed on the world stage since then, much of which hasn’t fared well for the Biden administration in public polls. But Biden is ready for a couple of “important lies” about foreign policy from Trump during the debate, according to a memo the Biden campaign circulated to reporters this week: The first Trump argument they’re expecting: “Biden's weakness also empowered Iran and its allies — including Hamas — to launch the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel,” the memo reads. Team Biden’s counterpoint: The president has been tough on Iran with widespread sanctions on Tehran, and its prisoner swap deal with Iran last year hasn’t freed up money to fuel Tehran’s proxies. The second Trump talking point they’re ready for: “Biden is weak on China.” If that comes up, we can expect Biden will point to his CHIPS Act intended to bolster the U.S. semiconductor industry and the Inflation Reduction Act, both of which China opposed. A Biden campaign official told NatSec Daily: “We are prepared for Ukraine/Russia and other foreign policy issues as well should they come up.” Biden will likely argue that he has restored America’s reputation after Trump blowtorched it by cozying up to dictators VLADIMIR PUTIN and KIM JONG UN and isolating long-standing allies. Biden will remind the audience that when he took office, the world was shut down due to the Covid-19 pandemic — which Trump will blame on Beijing. Part of Biden’s goal tonight is likely “to remind people exactly what it was Joe Biden inherited from Donald Trump,” EMILY HORNE, a former National Security Council spokesperson under Biden, told NatSec Daily. We expect Trump to say what he has been saying: The world is in flames because of Biden and that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza would never have happened on his watch. He may also argue that the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was Biden’s fault (another point the memo heavily pushes back on). “Trump’s theory of the case was that the world and the country were stable and peaceful and more prosperous under his leadership, and it’s a mess under Biden,” ALEXANDER GRAY, the former chief of staff to Trump national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN, told NatSec Daily. The Trump campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment. Polls show that the wars and the instability globally are part of people's overall perception of Biden’s ineffectiveness, Gray added: “It’s not the central issue that people vote on, but it is feeding President Trump’s narrative.” Some former U.S. officials don’t have high expectations that new (or productive) points will be made, and it’s unlikely either candidate could convince the other’s base to switch sides. But it’ll make for good television, at least. “As the consummate entertainer, I look forward to some Trump zingers and a solid highlight reel,” SIMONE LEDEEN, a former DOD Middle East official in the Trump administration, told NatSec Daily.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Unrivaled National Asset – Protecting and Powering Economic Growth
The F-35 is the most significant defense program in the U.S., powering small and large businesses and creating high-paying, high-tech and manufacturing jobs for workers in the innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | EYES ON ISRAEL-HEZBOLLAH: The U.S. believes the bubbling conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to break out into a large-scale confrontation in the next several weeks if Israel and Hamas don’t reach a cease-fire deal in Gaza, our own ERIN BANCO reports. American officials are trying to convince both sides to deescalate — a task that would be easier with a cease-fire in place in Gaza. But that agreement is still being negotiated, and U.S. officials aren’t confident Israel and Hamas will agree to the deal on the table in the near future. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah have drafted battle plans and are in the process of trying to procure additional weapons, two senior U.S. officials briefed on the intelligence told Erin. The risk is higher now than at any other point in recent weeks, according to another senior U.S. official. The State Department today issued a travel advisory for U.S. citizens, urging them to “strongly reconsider” travel to Lebanon. IT’S RAINING WARHEADS: North Korea tested technology for launching multiple nuclear warheads with a single missile for the first time ever this week, according to state-run media. On Wednesday, Pyongyang conducted a test “aimed at securing the MIRV capability,” a missile payload with several warheads that can be sent to different targets, the Korean Central News Agency reported. Part of a MIRV system was tested, not an entire multiple-warhead missile, the outlet reported. Pyongyang still sees it as a big development, saying via the outlet that the test was of “great significance in attaining the goal of upgrading the missile technologies.” The potential development is concerning for the West. It would make Pyongyang a much greater threat, since a high-speed ballistic missile with multiple warheads breaking off would be difficult to defend against. The test also comes shortly after Putin visited Kim, discussing how the pair can deepen military and technological cooperation. IMMIGRATION THREATS RAMP UP: Anger over immigration has fueled a dramatic surge in threats to judges, government officials and migrants, according to an intelligence bulletin obtained by our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN. The document, from the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis, highlights concerns in the Intelligence Community about how a volatile campaign issue could fuel violence. “Perceptions of government inadequacy related to immigration policy, and narratives describing immigration as an ‘invasion,’ remain a consistent driver for some individuals calling for violence against migrants and government personnel,” reads the document, dated May 9, 2024. Trump’s supporters for years have described illegal immigration as an “invasion,” with Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R., Ga.) using the descriptor just this month. Violent threats spiked in January, when the Supreme Court allowed Border Patrol agents to remove razor wire installed along the border by Texas state authorities. Threats against immigration-related targets tripled that month compared to previous months, and it was the first time federal judges faced immigration-related threats, according to the document. Online discussion has been incendiary, with calls for the murder of officials responsible for housing migrants. And immigration-related fervor has also complicated the work of Customs and Border Protection officials at the southern border, the briefing says. “Large rallies, convoy operations, and violent activities by some armed militia groups” have all strained their resources there, and militia activity has heightened the risk of violence. Property of the People, a government watchdog group, obtained the document through an open records request and shared it with POLITICO. The document noted that people opposed to immigration restrictions could also potentially pose threats. But it did not document any specific threats or alleged crimes by people in this category. It did, however, note that several violent plots early this year were linked to sentiment that the border is not secure. That included the FBI’s February arrest of a Tennessee man who told an undercover agent he planned to take explosives to the border in support of a militia. GAZA CITY OPERATION: Israeli forces stormed a neighborhood in Gaza City with tanks today, ordering Palestinians to move to humanitarian zones in the southern part of the enclave, Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI reports. Residents in the southern city of Rafah also reported Israeli bombings there today. SUDAN FAMINE WORRIES: U.N. officials are warning for the first time that hundreds of thousands of people are at risk of experiencing famine in Sudan in the coming months, according to the Associated Press’ SAMY MAGDY. According to a report from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, 8.5 million people are facing extreme food shortages after 14 months of conflict in Sudan. Those shortages are distributed across the country and are being experienced in Khartoum and the country’s main agricultural regions. Meanwhile, over 755,000 people are already experiencing the worst levels of food insecurity measurable in Darfur and other regions of the war-torn country. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | | WATCH IRAN’S ELECTION: Trump’s name has been oft-invoked in the leadup to Iran’s election on Friday, as the candidates vie to portray themselves as the best prospect to contend with a second Trump White House, our own GISELLE RUHIYYIH EWING writes in. Iranians weary and agitated under a suffering economy will be casting their ballots with an eye to alleviating the strain imposed by U.S. sanctions after Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal saddled the country with crippling sanctions and effectively cut it off from much of the global economy. As candidates have auditioned in recent weeks to succeed former President EBRAHIM RAISI, who died in a helicopter crash last month, each has sought to present himself as the strongest matchup against Trump, should he return to office. The candidate field, already culled from 80 submissions to six by the Guardian Council, narrowed further as two conservatives, government official AMIR-HOSSEIN GHAZIZADEH HASHEMI and Tehran Mayor ALIREZA ZAKANI, dropped out midweek. Both urged remaining hardliners, MOHAMMAD BAGHER GHALIBAF and SAEED JALILI, to coalesce behind one candidate for a better chance of beating reformist MASOUD PEZESHKIAN. Also in the race is MOSTAFA POURMOHAMMADI, the only cleric in the field. Pourmohammadi, like former president Raisi, participated in the “Death Committee” responsible for the executions of thousands of dissidents — a resume point that’s unlikely to sit well with voters amid continuing turmoil over the push for women’s rights. Hardliners are playing up fears that Ghalibaf, who currently serves as parliamentary speaker, and Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, could split the conservative vote, handing a victory to the Pezeshkian, the sole reformist in the race. Pezeshkian’s candidacy is anticipated to encourage voters to return to the polls after recent dismal turnout numbers. In the end, though, the presidency serves more as the face of Iranian politics while Supreme Leader ALI KHAMENEI wields all the power.
| | | DON’T STOP ME NOW: China is succeeding technologically in its space ambitions — and says there’s nothing the U.S. can do to stop it. Today, Beijing welcomed scientists from around the world to apply to study lunar rock samples recently brought back by its Chang’e 6 probe. The historic mission retrieved the first-ever samples from the far side of the moon and served as a reminder that China’s space program — which the U.S. has long warned is too closely tied to its military — is pushing ahead in the current space race. But China lambasted the U.S. for having a law on the books that makes it more difficult for NASA to collaborate with Beijing’s space agency. Despite that law, Chinese space official BIAN ZHIGANG told reporters today that the U.S. “cannot prohibit China from making giant steps forward in its space program.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | ISRAELI PATRIOTS TO UKRAINE? The U.S. and Israel are in talks to send some of Israel’s Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, The Financial Times reports. The deal, which isn’t finalized, would see up to eight of the systems being sent from Israel to the U.S. before being transferred to Ukraine, five people briefed on the matter told the FT. It would dramatically increase Ukraine’s air defenses, as Kyiv has been pleading with Western allies to send more systems while Russia’s assault on the country continues. Last month, Israel said it would begin retiring its Patriots, which are more than three decades old, and implement more advanced systems. They have yet to be retired, however, due to concerns about a wider war breaking out with Hezbollah, the outlet writes.
| | PIER PRESSURE RAMPS UP: House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) is urging the Biden administration to halt operations to deliver humanitarian aid though an Army pier anchored off the Gaza coast, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. Rogers assailed the pier in a letter to national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, calling the effort "a gross waste of taxpayer dollars.” The Alabama Republican argued the maritime Joint Logistics Over the Shore, or JLOTS, effort has been ineffective at delivering aid and has diverted “personnel and assets from primary missions in the highly contested Central Command area.” "I urge the administration to immediately cease this failed operation before further catastrophe occurs and consider alternative means of land and air-based humanitarian aid delivery," Rogers wrote. At the same time, internal watchdogs at the Pentagon and the U.S. Agency for International Development are reviewing the delivery and distribution of aid on the Gaza pier, Eric reports. The reviews come as the administration’s much-feted maritime corridor has struggled, as r ough seas have damaged the pier and aid deliveries wait for distribution on the shore due to security concerns. Congressional Republicans have seized on the pier’s troubles to blast the endeavor as a wasteful project intended to shore up the administration’s poor poll numbers. RUTTE’S INROADS: Dutch Prime Minister MARK RUTTE is grabbing the reins of NATO at a perilous time for the alliance. But he’ll be starting with effectively a blank slate among U.S. lawmakers, our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA and Joe report. House members say they’ve yet to hear from the incoming secretary general of NATO and many lawmakers know next to nothing about him. That means Rutte, who the alliance formally selected as its next leader this week, will have significant work to do to establish and develop relationships with U.S. lawmakers tasked with doling out dollars and military assistance internationally. Democrats who do know Rutte had warm words about his capabilities even as they acknowledged potential friction — particularly if Trump regains the White House: “Having had to navigate European politics, I would say he’s well-prepared to handle ours as well,” Rep. GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.), president of the NATO parliamentary assembly, told our colleagues. MIGRATION CAUCUS LAUNCH: A trio of Democratic lawmakers launched the Congressional Caucus on Global Migration caucus today, with the intention of better addressing migration crises around the world via Congress.
| | | |   | | | | | PEACE IN LA PAZ: Bolivian authorities today arrested the former head of the country’s armed forces, Gen. JOSE ZÚÑIGA, after he attempted to overthrow President LUIS ARCE, according to Reuters’ DANIEL RAMOS. The short-lived uprising against the country’s leftist president, which saw the region unite in its expression of concern, saw troops take control of a major plaza in the capital, La Paz, and storm the presidential palace. In one scene that made the rounds on social media, Arce stared down Zúñiga as troops entered the palace. Arce appointed a new military leadership the same day and protests have broken out across the country in support of democracy. The botched coup comes just five years after the country’s leader EVO MORALES was ousted when he attempted to change the constitution and extend his 13-year rule over the country.
| | — The Chinese Communist Party has expelled former defense ministers LI SHANGFU and WEI FENGHE, accusing the two of corruption.
| | | — NICHOLAS KRISTOF, The New York Times: President Biden and Donald Trump, some tough questions for each of you — JUDD DEVERMONT, Foreign Affairs: Africa needs more American involvement — not less — ESTHER WEBBER, POLITICO: What Nigel Farage learned from the American right
| | — The Atlantic Council, 9 a.m.: Production diplomacy for Indo-Pacific deterrence, readiness, and resilience. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Approaches to digital public infrastructure in the global south. — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Germany and the world, featuring German State Secretary THOMAS BAGGER. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Statistical review of world energy 2024. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who loses every debate she has with us. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who catches all of the lies Heidi tells us.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Powering Economic Growth Needed to Outpace Global Competitors
The F-35 is built by more than 1,650 high-tech suppliers, more than half of which are small businesses based in the U.S., representing the backbone of the U.S. innovation economy. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
