How bad are Democrats poll numbers? Just look at the independent voters.

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Jun 20, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO New York Playbook PM

By Jason Beeferman

Governor Hochul Announces New York Pharmacists Can Now Provide Hormonal Contraception Without a Prescription.

Independent voters are increasingly siding with Republicans, which could spell trouble for Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York Democrats at the ballot box. | Darren McGee/ Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

INDEPENDENCE DAY: There’s a lot to be worried about if you’re a Democrat in New York, based on our read of the Siena College poll that went out this morning.

The figures indicate trouble for the party’s chances of retaking the House, and for Gov. Kathy Hochul, who plans to seek reelection in 2026.

Today’s poll numbers show that Hochul’s favorability rating is lower than it’s ever been — a gloomy 38 percent. Her job approval is also the worst it’s ever been, at 44 percent. And President Joe Biden is only beating former President Donald Trump by 8 points, a far cry from the 23-point victory he boasted over Trump in New York in 2020. Yikes.

Deeper in the data is another set of numbers that spell trouble for Democrats come November: independents and others not enrolled in either major party (like former Green Party or Libertarian voters). It’s the second largest voting bloc in the state, at about 3.4 million voters (more than Republican, Conservative and Working Families Party voters combined). And they’re not happy with Democrats.

“We used to have Democrats here, Republicans there and independents would be somewhere in the middle range,” Greenberg said. “Now you look at a lot of the questions, what you see now is independents are much closer to Republicans than they are to Democrats.”

Democrats need those voters if they want to regain control of the House through a state where an estimated six House seats are in play.

It’s also a crucial voting bloc for Hochul as she looks toward reelection after defeating Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin by just five points two years ago.

“That should be terrifying to our poor candidates; it’s such a huge delta,” former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran, a Democrat, said of the independent voting numbers in the recent poll. “Abortion will only take you so far and threats to democracy — people don’t feel like that’s real.”

The tally showed that only 28 percent of independents or voters not belonging to either major party viewed Hochul favorably, and 71 percent disapproved of the job Biden is doing as president. In a head-to-head, Trump wins with that group 45-28 in New York.

It wasn’t all bad news for Hochul, though. New Yorkers overwhelmingly supported her bill to restrict social media’s impact on kids, and a plurality of all voters, 45 percent, approved of her congestion pricing pause (though neither party saw a majority of its voters supporting the move).

The poll now has Republicans circling the waters come November.

“It’s no surprise that New York Democrats’ support for open borders, higher taxes, cashless bail, and congestion pricing has resulted in a collapse of support from independent voters,” Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, who flipped a Hudson Valley seat red in 2022, told Playbook in a statement.

“Now, more than ever, New Yorkers want common sense and reasonable policies, which is why Republicans are poised to win in swing districts all across the state.” — Jason Beeferman

 

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From the Capitol

October 11, 2023 — New York, NY — Governor Kathy Hochul, New York Attorney General Letitia James, State Senator Andrew Gounardes, and Assemblymember Nily Rozic today announced new legislation to regulate unhealthy social media usage by prohibiting minors from accessing addictive feeds without parental consent at UFT Headquarters.

Gov. Kathy Hochul at a press conference in October in support of legislation to restrict the reach of social media's algorithms on kids. | Susan Watts/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

SOCIAL MEDIA LAWS SIGNED: Hochul today signed into law the Stop Addictive Feeds Exploitation for Kids act, which will prohibit social media companies from providing children under 18-years-old with addictive feeds without parental consent. The legislation will instead require social media feeds for minors include only content followed by the young users and content must be presented in chronological order.

Hochul also signed the New York Child Data Protection act, a bill that prohibits websites from collecting or selling minors’ data without parental approval.

"Other state's should start paying attention to New York, even our Surgeon General called this [legislation] out at the federal level," Hochul said in her remarks.

“We are not only leading the nation, but other states have been watching us and are going to take this bill and bring it to their state, so that eventually this will be the law of the land,” New York State United Teachers president Melinda Person said.

State Attorney General Tish James said the new law will likely face opposition, as it did prior to its passage, from social media groups that lobbied to delay it.

“Tish James loves litigation and Tish James is not afraid to stand up to any bully,” she added, referring to potential legal pushback. Katelyn Cordero

IRC STICKING AROUND: New York’s new Independent Redistricting Commission is planning to remain in existence in some form for the remainder of the decade.

Commissioners have interpreted the constitutional language that created the commission to mean it doesn’t wither away once maps are finalized. They’re budgeting $900,000 to stay afloat this year, with a focus on producing a report to lawmakers about how New York’s first go-around with the new process went.

“That’ll be carefully done and carefully researched, and we will expect to see a work product by the end of the year or sometime next year,” GOP Chair Charlie Nesbitt said.

The first time with the new redistricting rules was certainly a bumpy experience. Five major court cases have led to multiple changes in the congressional and state legislative maps since the commission released its first draft in 2022. — Bill Mahoney

ENVIRONMENTAL GOALS LEFT BEHIND: Lawmakers and environmental advocates in Albany had clear environmental goals they wanted to achieve this legislative session. They went home accomplishing virtually none of them.

None of the major elements of the state’s plan to slash emissions 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2050 were acted on this year. Measures to reduce plastic packaging, begin plans to transition buildings off gas and mitigate vehicle traffic all ended up failing.

“What we're seeing is just basic climate indifference," Eunice Ko, the deputy director for the New York City Environmental Justice Alliance told POLITICO Pro. "Partly what we're seeing is an overemphasis, I think, on affordability from the governor and the Legislature.”

“I would argue affordable for who,” Ko added. “You can subsidize suburban people, I guess, but won't be willing to subsidize caskets in the Bronx when people are dying from extreme heat."

POLITICO Pro’s New York energy and environment reporter Marie French took a look at what the lack of progress this session means for the state’s climate goals and how reducing emissions and achieving climate law mandates remains elusive. You can read her report here. — Jason Beeferman

STOPPING THE COMSTOCK ACT: Rep. Pat Ryan, of Kingston, introduced legislation with his fellow Democratic House colleagues to eliminate an 1873 federal law the Democrats fear a second-term President Trump could use to implement a national abortion ban.

Some anti-abortion proponents say the 19th-century Comstock Act law could enable them to enact a federal abortion ban without needing to pass any new legislation.

“This is a hidden ticking time-bomb that must be immediately defused,” Ryan said in a statement.

Today he and five fellow House Democrats introduced the “Stop Comstock Act,” which resembles a measure introduced today by Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith.

Ryan also claimed that Trump has a “detailed playbook to weaponize an archaic law from 1873 that would impose a nationwide abortion ban,” referencing a New York Times article that showed a person close to Trump was intent on using the law should Trump become president again — but the former president previously stated he intends to keep abortion up to the states.

Trump said in April that it should be “up to the states to do the right thing” on abortion, while painting Democrats as “radical” on the issue. — Jason Beeferman

AROUND NEW YORK

— SECOND AVENUE SUBWAY: Harlem residents are fuming after the indefinite pause on congestion pricing means Second Avenue subway extension plans have been axed. (AM NY)

— SHOT SPOTTER: The city had a $22 million contract with surveillance a tech firm’s Shotspotter tool to detect shootings around the city, but 87% of time it gave false alarms cops and wasted their time, an audit found. (Bloomberg)

THAT SLENDER, RIOTOUS ISLAND: A look at Long Island, which shocked the political world by painting all four of its congressional districts red in 2022, ahead of the November elections. (Spectrum News)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? Read it here.

 

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