| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Miles J. Herszenhorn and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  A recent poll from the Ronald Reagan Institute found that 70 percent of Donald Trump voters think it’s important that Ukraine win the war. | Chris Szagola/AP | With help from Alex Ward, Connor O’Brien and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Ukraine isn’t worried about a plan recently floated to DONALD TRUMP that would force Kyiv into peace talks with Moscow, partially because of a recent reachout by prospective members of a second Trump administration. Trump advisers retired Lt. Gen. KEITH KELLOGG and FRED FLEITZ, who both served on his National Security Council and are now at the conservative America First Policy Institute think tank, drew up a framework for ending the war that would involve telling Ukraine that it will only get more U.S. assistance if it enters peace talks with Russia, Reuters reports today. At the same time, Moscow would be told that any refusal would cause U.S. aid to Kyiv to increase. Fleitz told Reuters that Trump responded favorably to the proposal, though it’s not yet clear if he would implement it in the future. “We believe it’s just the race of folks who want to make it look like they are setting new Trump’s foreign policy agenda and reminding [people] about themselves,” a person close to President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s office told NatSec Daily. “The perception is that nobody actually knows what Trump’s approach will be. Kyiv is quite calm with that.” Another person close to Zelenskyy was blunt: “The Ukrainian government is happy to work with Donald Trump if he is re-elected,” the person told NatSec Daily. The people in this article were granted anonymity to speak candidly. A senior European diplomat in Washington used the word “worried” after reading the Reuters' story on Kellogg's Ukraine plan. But the official noted that the Trump campaign consistently says nothing should be attributed to the former president unless he says it himself. “The more I speak with different Republicans, it becomes more difficult to identify ‘what Trump thinks,’” the diplomat told NatSec Daily. The AFPI plan is already drawing fire from several analysts NatSec Daily spoke with, who say it would only embolden Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN. One reason: Washington saw what happened when Congress stalled aid to Ukraine for months earlier this year. Instead of moving to the negotiating table, Russia launched a massive ground offensive in Ukraine. Now, the U.S. is helping Ukraine defend a major city and region by allowing them to strike inside Russian territory. Another reason: Ukraine has already proven that, even without U.S. assistance, it will keep fighting. For the AFPI plan to work, the U.S. would need to convince dozens of other countries assisting Ukraine to stop supplying aid, which would be nearly impossible, said ANN DAILEY, who focuses on Russia, Europe and Eurasia at the RAND Corporation. “While doing this could then force Ukraine to go to the negotiating table, it does not guarantee that the negotiations would turn out favorably,” Dailey told NatSec Daily. “It almost certainly guarantees severe damage to the United States’ international reputation.” The plan could also lead to a split among NATO countries, depending on how quickly it’s pushed post-U.S. election. Regardless of whether or not the AFPI plan would be implemented, there are signs that Trump won't abandon Kyiv if he beats President JOE BIDEN in November. A recent poll from the Ronald Reagan Institute found that 70 percent of Trump voters think it’s important that Ukraine win the war. Former Trump officials and those in his orbit attended the Black Sea Security Forum in Odesa the weekend of June 15. One attendee was TROUP HEMENWAY, a senior adviser at The Heritage Foundation and associate director of Project 2025, the conservative think tank’s game plan if Trump wins. MIKE POMPEO, who served as Trump’s secretary of state and said he wouldn’t rule out serving in a second administration, recently held high-level conversations with Ukrainian leadership, according to the person close to Zelenskyy.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | MAJOR PIER PROBLEMS: Aid is now flowing reliably onto the beach in Gaza via the troubled U.S. military-built pier — but it is still not reaching any of the desperate Gazans inside the enclave, our own LARA SELIGMAN and ERIN BANCO report. Tons of food and medical supplies are now piling up on the beach awaiting distribution, as the humanitarian organizations tasked with moving the aid refuse to resume operations due to security concerns, according to U.S. officials and aid group representatives. And there is increasing alarm about food going bad the longer it sits in the marshaling area, according to people involved in the project. The pier backlog is part of a wider problem throughout Gaza, where aid groups have suspended much of their work due to fears they could be targeted by Israeli airstrikes. The U.N. has threatened to halt all of its aid operations across the enclave unless Israel takes urgent steps to better protect their workers, The Associated Press’ SAMY MAGDY and ELLEN KNICKMEYER report. “The hostile operating environment makes it nearly impossible for humanitarian operations to deliver food aid,” STEVE TARAVELLA, a spokesperson for the World Food Programme, told our colleagues. “Restoring order is crucial for an effective humanitarian response to meet soaring needs. U.N. agencies and others need a safe environment to be able to access people and scale up.” KENYANS IN HAITI: U.S.-backed Kenyan forces — who will help Haitian police suppress gangs running rampant in the country — arrived in Haiti today, Biden announced. Some 2,500 forces from Kenya and other countries will deploy to the nation, with the backing of some $300 million from the U.S., which includes weapons and other assistance for the forces. The plan to help Haiti has come under scrutiny from Republican lawmakers, left-leaning advocates and Haitians alike, who believe foreign intervention may not help quell the chaos. Biden remained cautiously optimistic: “While these goals may not be accomplished overnight, this mission provides the best chance of achieving them,” he said in a statement. ASSANGE IS FREE: Wikileaks founder JULIAN ASSANGE will be freed and allowed to return home to Australia after reaching a deal with U.S. prosecutors and pleading guilty to espionage charges, our own JOSH GERSTEIN and SAMANTHA LATSON report. AUSTIN’S WARNING: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN laid blame on Hezbollah for the recent rise in tensions along Israel’s northern border during a meeting today with Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT. “Hezbollah’s provocations threaten to drag the Israeli and Lebanese people into a war that they do not want. Such a war would be a catastrophe for Lebanon, and it would be devastating for innocent Israeli and Lebanese civilians,” Austin said. As loyal NatSec Daily readers know, however, it seems up to Israel whether a wider war breaks out. ICYMI — U.S. to Hezbollah: Don’t count on us to stop an Israeli attack by our own NAHAL TOOSI, ERIN BANCO and LARA SELIGMAN IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | MEAN GREEN MACHINE: In recent weeks, Trump has claimed the Biden administration’s climate policies will weaken the country’s ability to wage war. It’s part of his long-standing pattern of spreading misinformation about clean energy, our own SCOTT WALDMAN reports. But the U.S. military for years has planned and prepared for climate change and its impact on national security, even during the Trump administration. That includes making installations and bases more resilient and mapping out regions of the world where global warming could drive conflict and destabilization. The DOD has signaled an interest in exploring ways to cut costs and emissions through a strategy that could include sustainable fuels — so long as it doesn’t compromise its war-fighting mission. Trump’s comments may be based on the U.S. Army’s climate strategy, which puts an emphasis on electrifying “non-tactical” vehicles, or those not used in war. The document does state the Army could deploy fully electric tactical vehicles by 2050. But it makes clear the move would be a strategic decision and that its core purpose remains unchanged: “to deploy, fight, and win the nation’s wars.”
| | | | OPTICA’S CHINA OPTICS: China-based tech company Huawei has secured a key ally in Washington that has allowed it to project influence despite U.S. sanctions, according to Bloomberg’s KATE O’KEEFFE. Optica, a Washington-based scientific society, has partnered with Huawei to sponsor research events in the United States. Optica leadership has also quietly met with Huawei executives. The close ties, O’Keeffe writes, gave the company continued access to a pool of talented scientists and allowed the scientific organization to maintain a foothold in Asia even as U.S.-China tensions have grown in recent years. Export control policy experts told Bloomberg the arrangements, including the funding partnership, likely did not violate Commerce Department restrictions against technology sharing with Huawei. But it could open Optica to greater scrutiny and liability from the U.S. government and regulators.
| | | |   | | | | | ANTITRUST’S BIG GUNS: The Justice Department is slow-walking the purchase of a major U.S. ammunition manufacturer by a Czech conglomerate, our own JOSH SISCO reports. The Czechoslovak Group’s purchase of Vista Outdoor, first announced in October, is facing scrutiny from the Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. Meanwhile, Justice Department antitrust lawyers have been meeting with stakeholders — including law enforcement groups concerned that the deal could affect the market for key components for bullets. Vista Outdoor owns brands including Remington bullets. The antitrust inquiry is still in early stages, and it is unclear if federal prosecutors will launch a formal probe into the deal. But it comes as the administration steps up its enforcement of antitrust regulations and Republicans worry about the possibility that a U.S. ammunition manufacturer could end up in foreign hands.
| | | COALITION PUSHES TO HALT WISH LISTS: A coalition of government transparency, anti-war and fiscal watchdog advocacy groups are pushing House lawmakers to vote this week to defund the annual process of military services and commanders submitting budget wish lists to Congress, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. In a letter to leaders of the House Rules Committee, which is meeting this afternoon to pave the way for debate on the chamber's annual defense spending bill, the fourteen groups called the process — where brass submit billions in priorities that didn't make the budget — “fuels unnecessary spending and subverts” the annual budget process. "Funds should not be allocated to the military to submit unfunded wish lists that only exacerbates the department’s existing financial mismanagement issues, particularly given the growing size and scope of these wish lists," the groups wrote. "Not providing funds to carry out [unfunded priority lists] will avoid using wasteful and ineffective methods to push the military's top joint priorities." A bipartisan amendment from Reps. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.), WARREN DAVIDSON (R-Ohio), JOHN GARAMENDI (D-Calif.) and TOM MCCLINTOCK (R-Calif.) would block funding for compiling the annual wish lists, though it wouldn't repeal the legal requirement for them. Even if the Rules Committee allows a vote on the measure, it faces long odds as a similar proposal failed last year in a wide vote. House Republicans, meanwhile, are aiming to clear their conservative defense appropriations bill largely along party lines later this week, which Biden has threatened to veto. The House is also set to consider legislation to fund the State Department and Homeland Security. KENYA CONCERNS: One of the administration’s staunchest allies on Capitol Hill is sounding the alarm about a wave of violent anti-government protests in Kenya. In a statement, Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), a Senate Foreign Relations Committee member, said he was “heartsick about today’s developments in Kenya” and called for Kenyan police to “exercise restraint when managing demonstrations and uphold human rights.” Protestors in the East African country torched several major buildings in the capital Nairobi and stormed the country’s parliament, voicing opposition to the Kenyan government’s plans to raise taxes. Read: What to watch in tonight’s primaries in New York, Colorado and elsewhere by our own MADISON FERNANDEZ.
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | BURNS’ BURN BOOK: Washington’s top diplomat in Beijing accused China of “taking dramatic steps to make it impossible” to build ties between the U.S. and Chinese citizens, signaling growing distrust between the two countries. Speaking with The Wall Street Journal’s JONATHAN CHENG, U.S. Ambassador NICK BURNS accused China of targeting attendees of U.S.-organized events in China, restricting the embassy’s social media posts and promoting anti-American beliefs. He also said China is restricting the ability of its students to attend American universities. The comments from the veteran diplomat speak to the mounting tensions between the two countries, even as publicly, the bilateral relationship shows signs of improving. NYET TO NATSEC DAILY: It’s official: Your favorite newsletter, and all other POLITICO content, have been banned in Russia. The Russian government restricted access today to more than 80 media outlets that operate in the European Union, a move that appeared to be in retaliation for a prior ban by the EU on media organizations linked to Russia. The Russian ban also came hours after the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for former Russian Defense Minister SERGEI SHOIGU and Chief of the General Staff VALERY GERASIMOV, claiming that they bear responsibility for Russian airstrikes that targeted civilian infrastructure, our own SEB STARCEVIC reports. Zelenskyy welcomed the ICC’s decision to issue the arrest warrants. “These barbaric missile and drone strikes continue to kill people and inflict damage across Ukraine,” he said. “Every criminal involved in the planning and execution of these strikes must know that justice will be served.” Read: Georgia’s pro-EU parties unite in bid to oust government by our own GABRIEL GAVIN
| | — STEPH GUERRA is now senior adviser at the U.S. AI Safety Institute at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. She most recently was assistant director for health security and biodefense at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
| | — ALEXANDER KARP and NICHOLAS ZAMISKA, The Washington Post: Why American tech companies need to help build AI weaponry — EMMA TUCKER, The Wall Street Journal: EVAN GERSHKOVICH | A letter from The Wall Street Journal editor in chief — JULIE TURKEWITZ and ANATOLY KURMANAEV, The New York Times: How Venezuela’s leader could stay in power, no matter what voters want
| | — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Assessing North Korea’s rural development initiative. — The Wilson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Looking back, looking forward: Assessing the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. — The Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: Who’s a national security risk? The transatlantic geopolitics of data transfers. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Previewing the NATO Summit. — The House Oversight and Accountability Committee, 10 a.m.: Hearing on “Defending America from the Chinese Communist Party's Political Warfare, Part II.” — The Hudson Institute, 10 a.m.: Mexico’s new political landscape. — American Enterprise Institute, 12 p.m.: Population Aging: Are America and the world approaching an inflection point? — Center for a New American Security, 1 p.m.: Discussion about a new report, “Disorderly Conduct: How U.S.-China Competition Upended the International Economic Order and What the United States Can Do to Fix It.” — House Foreign Affairs Europe Subcommittee, 2 p.m.: Hearing on “Analyzing the FY2025 State and Foreign Operations Budget Request for Europe.” Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who never has a plan to help us. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who knows the answer to everything.
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