🍋 Lulu’s lemon year

…and "House of the Dragon" is a hit
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Dow Jones
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S&P 500
5,487 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq
17,862 (+0.03%)
Bitcoin
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Hey Snackers,

Brands are using TikTok to market "facial fitness" gum to teen boys as a tool to create jawlines chiseled enough to cut glass. Some teens hope to chew and "mew" their way into looking like Timothée Chalamet.

The S&P 500 notched a fresh record on Tuesday as Nvidia overtook Microsoft as the market's MVPc (most valuable public company). The AI-generated tech boom has the "Buffett Indicator" (aka: the ratio between a country's stock market cap and its GDP) going wild lately.

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Stretched

Lululemon's US growth sours as athleisure rivals like Alo and Vuori make strides

When life gives you Lululemons… Lululemon is one of the S&P 500's worst-performing stocks this year (down nearly 40%), and investors are worried that the downward dog trajectory could continue. The hot-yoga staple has been struggling with cold growth in North America, its largest market. This month, Lulu reported flat comparable sales growth in the "Americas" unit, which makes up over 70% of its quarterly revenue (though sales outside America grew 25%). The legging legend gave a weak forecast for this quarter as competition heats up at home.

The Alo effect… Lulu was riding high during the pandemic as folks wore its comfy fits for at-home yoga, grocery runs, and work-from-couch sessions. It's not that workout sets aren't cool anymore — it's that there are more cool workout sets. Lulu was the athleisure go-to for years, but now it has some sweat-worthy competition. Since the pandemic, prestige athleisure brands Alo and Vuori have made big gains in the space with #buttery matching sets, which often cost at least $150.

  • Alo gained trendy status as celebs like Taylor Swift and Hailey Bieber were photographed wearing its leggings. It has enlisted influential brand ambassadors
    including Kendall Jenner.

  • Vuori, which hit a $4B valuation after a $400M Softbank investment, made ads starring LSU gymnast Livvy Dunne and has had its men's apparel sported by stars like Zac Efron.

  • Too close for comfort: A whopping 90% of Vuori stores and 84% of Alo stores operate within half a mile of a Lululemon location. Both are rapidly expanding their footprints.

THE TAKEAWAY

The middle is inflexible… Not only does Lulu face tough competition from pricey rivals, but it's also losing market share to dupes (think: $20 leggings you see on Amazon). It even hosted a dupe swap in LA, offering its Align High-Rise pants in exchange for cheaper copycats (hmm). With competition from both sides of the price spectrum, Lulu will have to find a way to regain its prestige advantage — or move downmarket.

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IRONTHRONE

HBO hopes to fire up Max with "House of the Dragon" as streamers rely on hit shows

The Greens are coming… and Warner Bros. Discovery hopes not just for Rhaenyra Targaryen. HBO Sunday nights are back: the second season of "Game of Thrones" spinoff "House of the Dragon" premiered on Max on June 16 to nearly 8M viewers — the streamer's biggest day ever. Warner's HBO could use a hit: it's been a while since "Succession" or "The White Lotus," and HBO has yet to recapture GoT's success. Max has nearly 100M subscribers, but it's still lagging Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, and Disney+. Back at HQ, Warner is looking to pay down a debt load of $43B, and its shares have slipped 40% this year after weak earnings.

  • Promo push: HBO social posts showing Targaryen banners digitally added to major landmarks including NYC's Brooklyn Bridge went viral. HBO also draped an actual 270-foot inflatable dragon (Vhagar, IYKYK) around the Empire State Building.

The tentpole TV era… One survey found that it's not uncommon for Americans to subscribe to a streamer just to watch one show, and streaming cos have taken that to heart. Amazon reportedly spent ~$1B making its "The Lord of the Rings" spinoff, "The Rings of Power," for Prime Video. It's now its most-watched show with four more seasons planned. "Shōgun" has been a breakout hit for Disney's Hulu, while Apple's hyping season two of "Severance" for Apple TV+. Meanwhile, streamers are releasing shows in chunks to keep folks subbing (like Netflix splitting up "Bridgerton").

  • Subscripturation: As subscription fatigue sets in, there were a record 50M+ subscription cancelations in the first quarter of this year (see this chart).

THE TAKEAWAY

One show doesn't make a streamer… Subscribers that sign up for a streamer just to see one title may cancel after the finale. During its last earnings call, Warner's CEO said that "churn is the killer in this business and we've been hyper focused on it." One possible solution: combining forces through bundles. Warner's teaming up with Disney to launch a Max, Disney+, and Hulu bundle.

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What else we're Snackin'
  • BNPL: Apple's ending its buy now, pay later service less than a year after it launched. Apple said it plans to use third-party BNPL lenders like Affirm to let banks offer the service through Apple Pay.

  • Closed: McDonald's pulled the plug on its AI drive-thrus (picture: bots taking orders), which it had tested in partnership with IBM. Fast foodies have been trying to automate, but getting the tech right has been a tall order.

  • Burn: Philip Morris halted US sales on Zyn.com after its subsidiary received a subpoena related to whether the nicotine pouches comply with a 2022 ban on flavored tobacco. Zyn has gained popularity as smoke-free alts soar.

  • Woof: Nationwide Pet, the US's largest pet insurer, said it'd cancel coverage for 100K fluffy friends as the cost of vet care spikes (up 8% YoY). Pet owners spent $38B on vet care and products last year, and about a quarter buy insurance.

  • Layers: The US gov't sued Adobe over accusations that, according to FTC Chair Lina Khan, it made its software subscriptions "absurdly hard to cancel." Adobe's sub revenue is up 16x over the past decade.

Snack Fact Of the Day

On average, US teens spend nearly 5 hours/day on social media

Thursday
  • Summer solstice for Northern Hemisphere

  • World Refugee Day

  • Earnings expected from Aurora Cannabis, Accenture, Kroger, Darden Restaurants, Jabil, and Winnebago

Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Apple, Disney, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Warner Bros. Discovery

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