| | | | |  | | By Calder McHugh | | Presented by |  | | | |  Turner Broadcasting's Techwood Campus is seen in Atlanta, Ga. on Wednesday, the day before President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are set to meet in a debate hosted by CNN. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | IT’S ALL ABOUT THE MONEY — By now, the basic parameters of the 2024 race for the White House have been set. Both major candidates are well known to voters, who in general don’t like them very much. Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have been accused by their opponents of being unable to string the simplest of sentences together. Voters remain the most concerned about Biden’s age and Trump’s temperament. But even though Americans are convinced they know these two candidates like the back of their hand, over 70 percent of voters say that they plan to tune in this evening to the first presidential debate — which has historically been the most watched of the cycle. So, what’s new that they can learn, even after Trump and Biden’s decades in the limelight, and two debates four years ago? The policy area in which we might see the most surprises is on the economy. Voters generally rank the economy and inflation as their two top issues, and unlike other topics in which we’re sure to hear rote lines of attack, there’s some legitimate mystery as to how each candidate will spin their own record. The economy is a current weakness for Biden, with more voters trusting Trump by double digits. And with his Bidenomics tour not exactly selling out arenas, the Biden campaign has often highlighted other areas of his record as central parts of his pitch to Americans to give him four more years. So how he fends off attacks from Trump on inflation and the economy, which are sure to come in droves, is an open question. As POLITICO’s Adam Cancryn and Josh Sisco reported today, a host of progressive Democrats and allies of the White House are urging Biden to lean into a populist message on the economy, highlighting how he’s gone after corporate greed and contrasting his pro-union record with Trump’s embrace of billionaires and their priorities. The idea that Biden should lean into a more economic populist message has long been a hobby horse of progressives. But Cancryn and Sisco report that this group includes more than just the Bernie Sanders wing of the party — his team also heard it from more mainstream Democrats as he hunkered down at Camp David for debate prep. And the message does seem to make sense — according to a new Axios Vibes survey from The Harris Poll, 41 percent of Americans say that government spending and policies are most to blame for inflation, while 39 percent blame corporate greed and 20 percent blame supply chain disruptions. More Republicans blame the government than Democrats, and vice versa for corporations, but for independents it’s exactly even: 41 percent blame the government and 41 percent blame corporations. If Biden is going to come in for attacks on government spending, it might behoove him to change the topic to corporate greed where he can. Trump’s economic message looks a little bit clearer than Biden’s at first glance. He will do what he can at every turn to hammer the president on government spending and inflation, which he called “a nation buster” at a rally in Wisconsin last week. But some of the Biden administration’s economic decisions might make it a little harder for Trump to draw contrasts. In many cases, Biden has actually maintained or expanded Trump-era tariffs, in particular in relation to China. A two-year pause on tariffs on solar energy technology from four southeast Asian countries expired earlier in June, effectively ending the free trade era for clean energy technology in the U.S. Biden’s skepticism towards free trade has Trump insisting he’d do even more — more tariffs on China with fewer exceptions for certain goods and services in particular. But how Trump plans to attack Biden for policies that sometimes look like Trump’s own — if CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash bring up this question — remains unclear. POLITICO’s Victoria Guida suggested today that Tapper and Bash should ask the candidates, “Are there any downsides to tariffs?” It’s a question that the vast majority of economists wouldn’t have any trouble answering in the affirmative. Yet, with a political consensus shifting towards protectionism (or “America First”), the question could draw out a rare place in which the candidates have to at least be precise about their policy disagreements. There’s a distinct possibility that tonight’s debate looks similar in tenor and content to one or both of the 2020 faceoffs, and few people leave the evening feeling differently about either candidate. But if the needle does move over policy, look for it to be related to discussion of the U.S. economy. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
| | | | A message from Ford Foundation: A lack of high-speed internet impedes economic growth across the U.S., especially in the heartland of the nation. With the support of the Ford Foundation, innovative leaders are expanding high-quality internet access to ensure farmers, educators, businesses, and all communities can thrive in modern day society. Learn more. | | | | | — The Supreme Court rejects a nationwide opioid settlement with OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma: The Supreme Court today rejected a nationwide settlement with OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma that would have shielded members of the Sackler family who own the company from civil lawsuits over the toll of opioids but also would have provided billions of dollars to combat the opioid epidemic. After deliberating more than six months, the justices in a 5-4 vote blocked an agreement hammered out with state and local governments and victims. The Sacklers would have contributed up to $6 billion and given up ownership of the company but retained billions more. The agreement provided that the company would emerge from bankruptcy as a different entity, with its profits used for treatment and prevention. — Idaho must provide emergency abortions after Supreme Court declines to rule on case: Idaho hospitals are once again required to provide abortions in a medical emergency despite the state’s near-total ban on the procedure, following a Supreme Court decision today that punted the case to lower courts for further consideration. A majority of justices said the court erred when it decided in January to take the case, sidestepping the merits of the arguments, which focused on the conflict between Idaho’s near total abortion ban and federal protections for patients in crisis. — Judge rejects Trump’s claims that FBI misled court in Mar-a-Lago search warrant: U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon today swept aside former President Donald Trump’s claims that FBI officials misled the court to obtain permission to search his Mar-a-Lago estate as part of an investigation into mishandling of national security secrets. However, the judge coupled that ruling with a decision that is likely to further drag out the already protracted proceedings in the criminal case charging Trump with hoarding classified documents at his Florida home and obstructing the federal probe into the matter. Despite rejecting Trump’s claims about the facts in the search warrant, Cannon agreed to schedule an evidentiary hearing on two of Trump’s other efforts to toss key pieces of prosecutors’ case. Cannon’s ruling continues her pattern of siding with special counsel Jack Smith on fundamental questions about the case against Trump while sharply critiquing prosecutors nonetheless and leaving open the prospect that she will later back some of Trump’s myriad efforts to dismiss the case. — Supreme Court knocks down Wall Street regulator’s in-house courts: The Supreme Court ruled today that the Securities and Exchange Commission can’t rely on in-house courts to resolve certain enforcement disputes, a decision that could deliver a blow to a critical power of corporate watchdogs across the federal government. In a 6-3 decision along ideological lines, the justices backed a challenge to the constitutionality of the SEC’s internal tribunals — a resounding win for conservatives who have argued for years that regulators wield too much authority with too little oversight.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | RFK’S WAR — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spent months railing against President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Now he’s running against CNN and today’s presidential debate, too. Failing to qualify for the debate, Kennedy has repeatedly blasted the cable news network and the two major parties for excluding him. In a fundraising email, his campaign claimed Biden and Trump feared his presence “would catapult Bobby into the national spotlight, with devastating consequences for the two-party candidates.” Kennedy is planning his own counter-programming, but it’s a longshot effort to make gains on a night that is all about Biden and Trump — and in a race in which Kennedy, while fading, could still spoil either major candidate’s prospects in November. Kennedy’s supporters have used the campaign website to plan protests against CNN, including an upcoming demonstration for this evening at the White House — hundreds of miles from the debate in Atlanta. And Kennedy announced he will share his own live reactions to the debate questions online. TRUST THE EXPERTS — POLITICO reached out to some of the smartest strategists and power players in politics to ask them about the biggest single thing they’re watching for tonight — and what they’re most worried about for their party’s standard-bearer. Read their responses here. SCOTT’S PITCH — Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) became the second contender for former President Donald Trump’s running mate to make his case to FOX & Friends, telling the network today that he “desperately” wants whatever job can help him succeed in his mission from God to Americans. “Anyone who’s chosen to be the vice president, it is such an honor,” Scott told FOX & Friends co-host Ainsley Earhardt alongside his fiancée, Mindy Noce. “This is a kid growing up in poverty right here in Charleston having an opportunity to continue to influence this country.” Scott, who is on Trump’s shortlist for vice president but does not appear to be among the top three reported contenders, said Trump was “right” to call him a better surrogate for the former president than he was a candidate for the Republican nomination. “I desperately want to fulfill the mission the good lord has given me,” Scott said, “and whatever the position is that helps me get that done, on behalf of the American people, I want to do that every single day.”
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Black smoke billows following an Israeli air strike that targeted a house in the southern Lebanese village of Khiam near the Lebanese-Israeli border on June 21, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. | Rabih Daher/AFP/Getty Images | ON THE BRINK — A large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to break out in the next several weeks if Jerusalem and Hamas fail to reach a cease-fire deal in Gaza, U.S. intelligence indicates. U.S. officials are trying to convince both sides to deescalate — a task that would be significantly easier with a cease-fire in place in Gaza. But that agreement is in tense negotiations and U.S. officials are not confident Israel and Hamas will agree to the deal on the table in the near future. Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah have drafted battle plans and are in the process of trying to procure additional weapons, according to two senior U.S. officials briefed on the intelligence. Both sides have publicly said they do not want to go to war, but senior Biden officials increasingly believe that intense fighting is likely to break out despite efforts to try and prevent it. The risk is higher now than at any other point in recent weeks, according to another senior U.S. official. A war between Israel and Hezbollah could ignite a conflict that forces the U.S. to help defend Jerusalem and pushes the Biden administration to engage more deeply in a region it has for years tried to leave. It also risks another humanitarian disaster, punching the aid community at a time when it is already stretched thin and trying to manage the crisis in Gaza.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | | | | | TURN DOWN FOR WHAT — The World Health Organization says that over one billion young adults are at risk of hearing loss due to improper headphone use. But is it just blasting music too loud that leads to hearing problems? It’s actually a little bit more complicated than that — and it’s often hard to figure out exactly what’s causing separate kinds of hearing loss. In an explainer video for Vox, Edward Vega dives into the possibilities and comes up with some interesting conclusions that could change how you listen to music.
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On this date in 1995: House Speaker Newt Gingrich holds a red-tailed hawk during a visit with Columbus, Ohio, Zoo officials in his Capitol Hill office. | Joe Marquette/AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
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