Three questions for Florida two years after Dobbs

Kimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Jun 24, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Kimberly Leonard

Supporters of Florida Voice For The Unborn demonstrate at the state Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla.

Supporters of Florida Voice For The Unborn demonstrate outside the fourth floor as legislators work on property insurance bills, May 24, 2022, at the state Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla. | Phil Sears/AP

Good morning and welcome to Monday. 

Florida lawmakers rolled back abortion’s legality to six weeks with limited exceptions in the two years since the Supreme Court struck down federal protections and let states decide abortion laws in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. But in November, Florida voters will get the final say.

If 60 percent favor the Amendment 4 ballot measure, then abortion will be legal until viability, and after when a medical provider determines it’s necessary for health reasons.

How the issue is affecting Florida’s electorate is still to be determined. Three major questions linger in the months leading up to Election Day:

Will Gov. Ron DeSantis’ winning streak on the issue continue? 

Democrats widely credit abortion rights with helping them win more elections across the country than they expected in the 2022 midterms. But Florida was an outlier. Democrats got crushed, even through at the time DeSantis had signed a 15-week abortion bill into law with no exceptions for rape or incest.

But most abortions happen before 15 weeks, meaning it’s still unclear whether the current six-week restriction, which will affect more patients, will sway public opinion and affect how people vote or turn out in November. Polls on where Florida voters stand show that at least 60 percent support enshrining abortion rights into the state Constitution.

Top Republicans will be working to persuade Floridians to vote “no” on the amendment in November. While many GOP politicians across the U.S. are hiding from the issue, the Republican Party of Florida passed a resolution early this year clearly stating they were against it. DeSantis, too, is betting that voters are on his side. He’s not only criticizing the amendment but is poised to put financial heft behind the opposition effort through his Florida Freedom Committee launched last month.

Can Democrats effectively leverage the issue in Florida? 

Florida Democrats are banking big on reproductive health ahead of November. Back in Washington, Democrats are putting Republicans on the spot over topics like birth control and in vitro fertilization. They’re taking that message across Florida, too, by holding a press conference in Tallahassee today near a giant balloon shaped like an IUD — a form of long-acting contraception.

“If such a fundamental freedom such as the right to make decisions about your own body can be taken, be aware of what other freedoms may be at stake,” Vice President Kamala Harris told MSNBC’s Morning Joe in a segment that will air this morning.

Early data show the abortion question doesn’t appear to have created a groundswell of support for Democrats in the form of voter registrations, at least according to the latest-available figures from the Florida Division of Elections that runs through May.

Still, that was just before the six-week law took effect, meaning a clearer picture will form in the coming months. The “Yes on 4” campaign released fundraising numbers Friday showing it raised $20 million since the state Supreme Court allowed the amendment to go before voters. The group also started its door knocking drive this weekend.

How will Florida resident and 2024 presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump vote on Amendment 4? 

Trump gave Republicans running for office an escape hatch out of having to take a gestational position on abortion by saying that it should be left up to the states to decide. GOP Sen. Rick Scott is the highest-ranking Florida elected official who echoed a similar position that abortion should not be regulated at the federal level (though before Dobbs he supported a 20-week limit and said if he was still governor he would have signed the six-week restriction).

Despite Trump’s leave-it-to-the-states position, Biden is sure to remind voters during Thursday's debate about Trump’s Supreme Court appointments that paved the way for Dobbs — and it’s possible the moderators or even Biden himself will ask Trump to say how he’ll vote in Florida on Amendment 4. It puts the former president in a bind: On the one hand, anti-abortion groups who’ve supported Trump have wanted him to back restrictions. But Trump already called the six-week law a “terrible mistake” when DeSantis was still in the primary.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com 

 

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

THE BIG STORY — “Florida Medicaid spending on undocumented immigrants plummets after new law,” by POLITICO’s Arek Sarkissian. “Data provided to POLITICO by the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services show $148.4 million in state and federal Medicaid dollars went toward emergency coverage for immigrants in Florida in the year before the state’s new immigration law took effect.

“As of May 3, $67 million has gone toward emergency coverage this year. With two months left in the fiscal year that number will rise, but the state is still on track for a dramatic decrease in spending.

“The spending drop represents a dramatic spike in the rate of decline. The AHCA data also shows Medicaid expenditures in the 12 months before the law took effect dropped a little more than 13 percent. Medicaid expenditures went from $171.4 million in 2022 to the $148.4 million from last year.”

… DESANTIS SIGNS MORE BILLS INTO LAW … 

— Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday signed into law sweeping new restrictions on ethics investigations that critics and Democrats say will make it easier for corruption to go undetected.

DeSantis’ decision to back the bill was not unexpected, especially since it incorporated changes that his general counsel had suggested late last year in the aftermath of ethics complaints that were filed against several top aides of the DeSantis administration by Florida Democratic Party chair Nikki Fried. The aides were cleared.

But some have loudly criticized the legislation (SB 7014) because it places limits on who can file complaints and also will curtail investigations that can be pursued by local ethics boards such as the one in Miami-Dade County.

“This law undermines the will of the people and will allow corruption to go unchallenged,” said Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida. “The governor and Florida legislators who voted in favor and signed off on this new law failed to protect the integrity of our democracy. Instead, they chose to hide from accountability and silence the voices of Floridians who are trying to uphold our collective values.”

When the bill was first introduced last December, Senate President Kathleen Passidomo said the main goal was preventing drawn-out cases such as the one that had involved former state Sen. Jack Latvala. Latvala resigned in 2017 after two investigations accused him of sexual harassment, but a separate probe by the ethics commission dragged on for years and did not close until 2022.

That initial version of the bill spelled out how long it would take for the state ethics commission to investigate and ultimately resolve ethics complaints. And it let candidates hit with false and malicious allegations to recover attorney fees.

But during the session the bill was altered. One of the key changes was to require complaints to be based on “personal knowledge” — a standard already in place at the Florida Elections Commissions. It was a change that had been recommended by DeSantis’ top attorney Ryan Newman in correspondence to the commission. The new law means that complaints can’t be based on newspaper articles or second-hand information.

GOP leaders at the time of passage defended the new law. “I just think the level of weaponization among parties that would seek to use this justifies now a higher standard,” said House Speaker Paul Renner.

— Gary Fineout

— “DeSantis signs bill allowing people to shoot threatening bears,” reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie. “Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday signed a bill allowing people to shoot a bear if they feel it poses a threat to their family, pets or home. DeSantis signed the bill, HB 87, despite opposition from numerous environmental groups and after receiving requests from thousands of their supporters to veto the bills.”

— “DeSantis signs bill compensating Dozier School victims who endured abuse,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Romy Ellenbogen. “The Florida Senate passed a bill that would provide $20 million to compensate victims of the Dozier School and another state reform school in Okeechobee County … It’s unclear how much each surviving victim of the Dozier School will get. The money will be split evenly among the men who qualify. Estimates of how many men are still alive vary from 300 to 500 to upwards of 1,000.”

— “Floridians veterinarians can soon treat animals over web video,” reports Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles.

… DESANTIS SENDS SOME BILLS TO THE LEGISLATIVE GRAVEYARD … 

— “Cities and counties can ban gas leaf blowers, thanks to DeSantis veto,” by Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents. “One of the sillier line items the governor struck from the budget was $100,000 for a study of leaf blowers, the loud yard tools that are irritatingly familiar to anyone who has ever tried to sleep in on a Saturday morning. But that little line-item veto has big consequences: Because by blocking the money for that study, DeSantis also blocked a last-minute attempt by the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature to tie the hands of any local community wishing to limit the use of leaf blowers that run on gasoline — the noisiest and dirtiest kind.”

— “Gov. DeSantis kicks bill regulating left lane driving to the curb,” by Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles. “‘The language of this bill is too broad and could lead to drivers in Florida being pulled over, ticketed, and fined for driving in the furthest left lane even if they are not impeding the flow of traffic or if there are few or no other cars in the immediate area’ reads a transmittal letter from the governor.”

— “Frozen fees: Gov. DeSantis nixes potential hike in wastewater assessments in Brevard Co. water district,” by Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaks at the Governor's Day luncheon Feb. 8 in Tampa, Florida. Climate change will be a lesser priority in Florida and largely disappear from state statutes under legislation signed Wednesday, May 15 by Gov. DeSantis, which also bans power-generating wind turbines offshore or near the state's lengthy coastlines. | Chris O'Meara/AP

DESPITE 2ND HIGHEST EVS IN AMERICA — “Florida slow to fund EV chargers along highways, despite federal money,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Emily L. Mahoney. “The federal government approved all states’ plans, including Florida’s, for the money almost two years ago. But Florida is among 15 states that have yet to allow companies to apply for the money, according to Loren McDonald, the chief executive of a firm called EVAdoption which tracks the progress of this funding and other policies.”

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

LAWSUIT — “Disney employees sue company over canceled relocation to Lake Nona,” by the Orlando Sentinel’s Lauren Brensel. “Two California-based Disney employees are suing the company, alleging misrepresentation of a project that led them to follow work to Orlando, just to move back two years later when the project failed … According to a lawsuit filed Tuesday in Los Angeles County Superior Court, the two employees were among at least 250 others who thought Disney would fire them if they didn’t make the move.”

— “The end of Wynwood? Massive projects would remake Miami’s hippest neighborhood,” by the Miami Herald’s Andres Viglucci.

DATELINE D.C.

PLEA TO DC — “Florida’s Republican mayors wade into property insurance crisis,” by the Tampa Bay Times’ Lawrence Mower. “The Florida Republican Mayors Public Policy Association is endorsing two bills in Congress that would provide tax breaks for victims of disasters and those who buy flood insurance … The organization this week urged senators to pass the Federal Disaster Tax Relief Act … [which] would allow victims of hurricanes and federally-declared disasters to avoid income taxes on compensation they receive for those disasters … The mayors are also urging Congress to pass the Flood Insurance Relief Act, sponsored by Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., and Sen. Rick Scott … The legislation would allow individuals earning $200,000 or less, or households earning $400,000 or less, to deduct their flood insurance premiums from their taxes.”

— “US Supreme Court ruling could affect challenge to Florida law restricting gun-buying age,” by Jim Saunders of News Service of Florida. More from POLITICO’s Josh Gerstein on the Friday Supreme Court decision, which found that a firearm ban for alleged domestic abusers did not violate the Constitution.

CAMPAIGN MODE

US Representative Matt Gaetz, Republican from Florida, addresses the "Turning Points: The People's Convention" on June 15, 2024 at Huntington Place Convention Center in Detroit, Michigan.

US Representative Matt Gaetz, Republican from Florida, addresses "Turning Points: The People's Convention" on June 15, 2024 at Huntington Place Convention Center in Detroit, Michigan. | Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

REELECTION KICKOFF — “Matt Gaetz hits the road to reshape the Republican Party,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Natalie Andrews. “The sharp-tongued Gaetz has been the antihero of Republicans’ fevered spell running the House, engineering the ouster of Kevin McCarthy as House speaker last year. He remains a leading voice of the party’s conservative populist wing, unabashedly pro-Donald Trump while a hard-liner on the budget and foreign aid, regularly aggravating colleagues, some of whom see him as a grandstander who undercuts Republicans’ efforts to govern.”

INDY RUN — “‘Partisan politics should have no role’: State Attorney Bain touts independence, but DeSantis looms large,” by the Orlando Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher. “Orange-Osceola State Attorney Andrew Bain is drawing fire for a political evolution that took him from a registered Democrat to an appointee of Gov. Ron DeSantis — and now has him running as an independent for the job of Central Florida’s top prosecutor.”

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

MAR-A-LAGO DOCUMENTS CASE — “Judge Cannon wants to know whether Merrick Garland is supervising Jack Smith,” by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout and Kyle Cheney. “The federal judge overseeing Donald Trump’s classified documents case grilled special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecutors Friday on how closely Attorney General Merrick Garland oversees their work. Under persistent questioning from U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, the prosecutors declined to divulge details and seemed caught off-guard by the inquiries. At one point, Smith deputy James Pearce said he was ‘not authorized’ to discuss the level of communication that occurred between the attorney general and the special counsel.”

… INSIDE THE VEEPSTAKES … 

— Trump said he decided who his running mate will be, but that he hasn’t told that person — or anyone else — yet, he told NBC News.

— Sen. Marco Rubio appears to have fallen to third place in consideration, NBC News reports, because “doubts about his enthusiasm for the job and concerns about navigating a constitutional hang-up that would require Trump or Rubio to establish residency in another state have persisted in ways that could jeopardize his chances.”

— But Rubio still has big time backers in his corner: “Fox News host Sean Hannity has gone to bat for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, arguing the son of Cuban immigrants could help Trump with Latino voters in key battlegrounds,” reports CNN. “At a dinner in New York City following his felony conviction, Trump canvassed some two dozen Wall Street financiers and high-dollar donors … Rubio received the most votes in the informal straw poll, with many backers citing a key reason: The 53-year-old’s ability to assume the office of the presidency if something were to happen to their 78-year-old nominee. In Rubio, they said, Trump would also get a seasoned lawmaker with the ability to bolster the former president’s Latino support — especially in Nevada, where the senator once lived — and provide his administration a bit of polish. Besides Hannity and Trump’s dinner company, Rubio has another influential figure in his corner: Kellyanne Conway.”

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 
ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

IN MEMORIAM — “​​Beloved actor and Florida resident Donald Sutherland dies at 88,” by C. A. Bridges and Bryan Alexander of USA Today Network — Florida.

RIP — “Robert Dressler, former mayor of Fort Lauderdale who battled Spring Break, dies at 78,” by the South Florida Sun Sentinel’s Susannah Bryan.

BIRTHDAYS: U.S. District Judge Beth BloomTara Price, attorney with Shutts & Bowen.

 

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