What Democrats do — and don’t — want to publicize about an OC House race poll

Jun 26, 2024

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Michelle Steel speaks into her microphone at a congressional hearing.

Campaign reps for Rep. Michelle Steel, pictured, called her opponent's polls narrative bunk. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

SURVEY SAYS: Political junkies took notice this month when Orange County Democrat Derek Tran released internal polling showing him neck-and-neck with GOP Rep. Michelle Steel. Internal polls — as savvy Playbook readers know — are all about creating a narrative, which means they should be taken with a heavy sprinkling of salt. This release laid out a simple storyline: a novice candidate mounting a surprisingly robust challenge to a Republican incumbent Democrats failed to oust last cycle.

An expanded version of their polling memo painted a more complex picture.

The longer write-up included some shaky numbers for President Joe Biden, who was trailing Donald Trump by six points — a 12-point swing from 2020, when he beat Trump in the district by six. The poll found Biden losing Vietnamese voters, a pivotal voting bloc in the district, by 23 points, even as Tran — the son of Vietnamese immigrants — was statistically tied with Steel for the same voting bloc.

Such numbers would indicate some serious Biden-generated headwinds for Tran and other Democrats. Much has been made about whether Republicans in California can outrun Trump’s unpopularity, but if Biden is behind in the key swing seats, the onus will be on Democratic candidates to outpace their presidential pick. Tran very well could be outpacing Biden, but Democrats aren’t especially keen to highlight bad numbers for the president. The Biden-Trump match-up numbers were not publicized in Tran’s campaign press release, though there was a link to the more detailed memo on the campaign website.

“Derek is outperforming Democrats in large part because of his compelling backstory, which resonates with communities across Orange County, and his proven commitment to public service instead of self-service, unlike Michelle Steel,” said Orrin Evans, a spokesperson for Tran. “Above all else, that contrast is what this race will come down to.”

Evans said Tran is “uniquely positioned” to flip this seat, noting Tran’s background as the son of Vietnamese refugees as part of what’s driving his substantial overperformance among Vietnamese voters compared to Biden.Steel’s campaign, meanwhile, is advancing its own narrative about Tran’s poll — that it’s bunk.

“Message to Tran donors: Desperation and panic has officially set in. Tran cooked the head-to-head numbers just to get your money, but his poll speaks volumes,” Steel campaign spokesperson Lance Trover said. “Derek Tran has no path to victory. The DCCC knows it, House Majority PAC knows it, and even Tran's pollster and consultants know it, which is why they hid it.”

IT’S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to mmason@politico.com.

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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

VOTER BATTLE: A state lawmaker agreed to water down her proposal to expand voter registration in California today in the face of opposition from the ACLU.

The bill by state Sen. Monique Limón would have originally made California’s voter registration system fully automatic, signing up unregistered, eligible constituents to vote as soon as they submit documents to the DMV, such as for a license. After the amendments Limón took in the Assembly Elections Committee, the bill instead calls for the DMV to create a “preapproved registration list,” and work with state and local elections officials to develop procedures for those on the list to register to vote.

Assemblymember Marc Berman, who expressed a “very, very, very cautious” yes vote, said he’s never been contacted by so many prominent lobbyists on an elections-related bill.

“I'm impressed by the group of advocates that were here in support of the bill,” Berman said. “I'm also struck by the advocates that have serious and legitimate concerns, and who have been working in this space in California, in this committee hearing room, for decades.”

The ACLU, League of Women Voters and NALEO remain opposed, contending the bill “would still make the DMV responsible for determining citizenship status, which is dangerous and unnecessary,” Brittany Stonesifer, an attorney at the ACLU of Northern California, said at the hearing. — Eric He

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

From the Capitol

Children play games on their smartphones.

Children play games on their smartphones. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

LEARNING LIKE IT’S 2006: Pre-smartphone schools are so back. Republican Assemblymember Josh Hoover’s bill to prevent students from using their phones in classrooms cleared the Senate Education Committee 7-0 today, after Newsom recently blessed such restrictions (in concept).

There’s still no word on which bill Newsom will use as a legislative vehicle: Hoover’s proposal or a similar one from Democratic state Sen. Henry Stern that is set to be heard in the Assembly Education Committee today. But the continued bipartisan backing for the idea within the Legislature — and nationally — leaves little doubt California will join Florida and other states in emptying students’ pockets. — Blake Jones

MIC CHECK: Republican Bill Essayli stormed out of an Assembly Elections Committee today after his aggressive questioning drew sharp criticism from Democratic committee chair Gail Pellerin, who at one point cut his microphone.

In comments to Playbook while rushing to make a press conference on the Capitol lawn, Essayli accused Democrats of “silenc[ing] their opposition” during hearings, despite his firebrand style being an outlier among GOP state lawmakers.

Playbook also asked the Riverside County lawmaker to explain missed votes before the May 24 house of origin deadline. Essayli said he had an excused absence cleared by Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas’ office and denied rumors he was in Cancún, saying he “definitely was not” vacationing in the Mexican resort town. He refused to further explain the absence.

Essayli’s confrontational language has routinely put him in hot water. He was booted from the Assembly Budget Committee in April after arguing with committee chair Jesse Gabriel and was kicked off the Judiciary Committee in May for a social media post calling Democratic lawmaker Pilar Schiavo a “pedophile protector.”

As for today’s mic cut, Pellerlin told Playbook after the committee hearing that she’s not planning any further retaliation regarding Essayli’s conduct.

“I feel like I made my point at the hearing,” she said. — Tyler Katzenberger

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WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

— KQED will close its San Jose office as the San Francisco-based public radio outlet faces budget cuts and an 8 percent staff reduction. (The Mercury News)

— Katie Porter is returning to her job as a law professor at UC Irvine following her failed Senate campaign, but she’s not done with politics quite yet. (The Orange County Register)

— The Supreme Court ruled today that the Biden administration can’t be sued for pressuring social media companies to remove misinformation. (POLITICO)

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All AVs are required to adhere to strict safety requirements and reporting issued by federal and state regulators focused on road and passenger safety. The data to date indicates that AVs make roads safer by avoiding injury-causing and fatal crashes better than human drivers.

Californians deserve safer roads and accessible transportation – and AVs are a solution. Visit saferroadsforall.org to learn more.

AROUND THE STATE

— UC Berkeley plans to expand antisemitism education to all new students following pro-Palestine encampment protests, Chancellor Carol Christ said this week. (Los Angeles Times)

— A grand jury alleges the Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office’s violated state law by sharing data collected using license plate scanners with out-of-state entities. (Sacramento Bee)

— Oakland officials would cut police and fire services if a $105 million deal to sell its share of the Coliseum — formerly home to the Oakland Athletics — falls apart. (San Francisco Chronicle)

— compiled by Tyler Katzenberger

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