| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Palestinians displaced by the Israeli air and ground offensive on the Gaza Strip flee from parts of Khan Younis following an evacuation order by the Israeli army to leave the eastern part of Gaza Strip's second largest city on July 1, 2024. | Jehad Alshrafi/AP | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric While there has been little progress on a cease-fire in Gaza in recent weeks, Israel is trying to implement plans for the territory after the war — even as it continues conducting major military operations there. Israel wants to be able to focus on the threat from Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, saying that it’s approaching a new phase of the war in Gaza. As part of that, Israel is preparing to test an experimental plan that involves creating humanitarian zones — a series of “bubbles” — in Gaza that are designed to be Hamas-free, The Financial Times reports. The plan is already being met with fierce skepticism: It’s a “fantasy” project, a person familiar with the plans told FT. And implementing it successfully would require fighting to actually subside, but Israel so far hasn’t let up. Today, Israel ordered a mass evacuation from the city of Khan Younis, a sign that its military will launch a new assault in the Gaza Strip’s second-largest city. Much of that city was destroyed in previous operations, but Palestinians had moved back there to avoid other Israeli assaults in the southern city of Rafah. By and large, experts aren’t hopeful that a credible plan will come together. Infighting among Israel Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s coalition complicates the Israeli leader’s calculus as he tries to remain in power, Hamas still wants to reign, and there’s tepid support among Arab nations for the multinational force. Another major obstacle: Netanyahu doesn’t want the Palestinian Authority to play a role in post-war governance, but the U.S. does. And despite Israel signaling that an Israeli military operation in Lebanon could happen soon, Netanyahu’s national security adviser recently said the war in Gaza could also last until the end of the year. Hamas and Israel aren’t closer to reaching a cease-fire either, a top Hamas official said over the weekend. The cease-fire deal, even if agreed upon, wouldn’t answer the question of who would be in control of Gaza or what the governance structure would be. But it does at least set the stage for discussions that could theoretically involve both Israel and Hamas. “Without Netanyahu’s buy-in and serious help from key Arab states — specifically on how to begin implementing a political, economic and security alternative to Hamas — any postwar planning will be tethered to a galaxy far, far away rather than to the realities back here on planet earth,” AARON DAVID MILLER, a former Middle East peace negotiator, told NatSec Daily.
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The F-35 securely connects high-tech platforms and seamlessly shares information across every domain to deliver what’s needed for a successful mission. Learn more. | | | | | UKRAINE IN THE HOUSE: A trio of top Ukrainian officials are coming to Washington this week for a day-long huddle with the Biden administration to shore up plans for the upcoming NATO Summit, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) scoop. World leaders will gather in Washington to celebrate NATO’s 75th birthday next week, with a heady list of agenda items critical to keeping Ukraine in the fight. Defense Minister RUSTEM UMEROV, Energy Minister GERMAN GALUSHCHENKO, and President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s adviser, ANDRIY YERMAK, will spend Tuesday with Biden administration officials to work through some of those issues before the summit. At the top of their list is to find out what security guarantees the U.S. and the alliance are ready to offer Kyiv, short of an invitation to join NATO. Leaders in Washington and NATO capitals are working to forge an agreement on guarantees during the summit, which takes place July 9 to 11. One NATO diplomat said this effort won’t result in a new agreement between NATO and Ukraine but rather an attempt to take some of the existing agreements and tie them together to “make a larger, more forceful show of support and unified support” for Kyiv. ON HIGH ALERT: Several Army bases across Europe were put on heightened alert over the weekend amid threats of a terrorist attack, CNN’s NATASHA BERTRAND and OREN LIEBERMANN report. The alert level at the Army garrison in Stuttgart, Germany — where U.S. European Command is headquartered — was raised to Force Protection Condition “Charlie” on Sunday, the second-highest alert. A U.S. official stationed there told CNN that they hadn’t seen that alert level in at least a decade. It’s unclear what the threat was. ‘ALMOST DAILY TORTURE’: Israel released the director of Gaza’s main hospital today after holding him for seven months, in what he described as brutal conditions for those himself and those he was held with, The Associated Press reports. “Our detainees have been subjected to all kinds of torture behind bars … “There was almost daily torture,” MOHAMMED ABU SELMIA said at a press conference after his release, describing how guards broke his finger and caused his head to bleed due to beatings. Abu Selmia was held without charge or trial over accusations that his Shifa Hospital was used as a command center by Hamas. He was released along with 54 other Palestinians detainees, many of whom also alleged abuse, apparently to free up space in overcrowded detention centers. The move drew backlash from Israeli government ministers, who said the doctor should have remained in detention. They did not address Abu Selmia’s accusations. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | | BLINKEN NOT BLINKIN’: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN sought to reassure U.S. allies today that Biden’s shaky debate performance was just one bad night, our own MILES J. HERSZENHORN reports. At an event at Brookings Institution, Blinken echoed the oft-repeated defense from Biden allies in the days since the debate, insisting that one debate does not reverse three and a half years of diplomatic achievements on the world stage. “If you look at surveys around the world — for what they’re worth — you see again and again and again that confidence in American leadership has gone up dramatically over the last three and a half years,” Blinken said. “They see President Biden having led the way in all of those different areas.” Still, Blinken usually refrains from commenting on domestic politics and his remarks demonstrate that the fallout from the debate became impossible to ignore for the country’s top diplomat.
| | PYONGYANG SAYS PRIVYET: North Korea is now using Russian satellites for its television broadcasts and ditching its transmission ties with China in the process, according to Reuters’ DAEWOUNG KIM and JU-MIN PARK. The shift, detected by a South Korean satellite television provider, is a sign of the growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, as the increasingly isolated nations deepen their military and technological collaborations. Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN’s visit to North Korea and his love fest with North Korean leader KIM JONG-UN saw the two countries announce new pledges of mutual cooperation and partnership. South Korean government agencies that track Pyongyang will continue to have access to the North’s state media broadcasts, which they monitor as a way to analyze their foe. But the change may result in a lower-quality transmission and feed.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | AID MOVING: The World Food Programme resumed moving aid out of the marshaling area for the U.S.-built pier on the beach of Gaza over the weekend after a several-week pause, Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters today, our own LARA SELIGMAN writes in. The pier itself was disconnected late last week and moved to the Port of Ashdod, Israel, in anticipation of high sea states, and remains there while officials wait for the weather to calm, Singh added. She also cautioned that it will take a few more days to move out all the aid that has piled up in the marshaling area that has built up over the past few weeks. WHY ARE YOU HITTING YOURSELF? Russia’s devastating glide bombs have faulty navigation systems, causing them to accidentally strike its own territory, according to The Washington Post’s MARY ILYUSHINA and ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN. Internal Russian documents obtained by the Post found that at least 38 glide bombs crashed in Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, from April 2023 to April 2024. Most landed in fields or in wooded areas and did not detonate. But at least four bombs hit the city of Belgorod. Seven more were found in the city’s suburbs. The Russian military retrofitted the Soviet-era “dumb weapons,” which lack their own navigation systems, with guidance kits and cheap pop-out wings. Despite the flaws with their guidance systems, these bombs have allowed Russia to wreak havoc on Ukraine’s front lines and fire them from distances out of reach for Kyiv’s air defenses. Read: Ukraine’s ‘people’s satellite’ wreaks havoc on Russian targets by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA and JOSHUA POSANER
| WATCH THIS SPACE: NATO could play a bigger role in countering the threat posed by Russia’s space nuke, House Intelligence Chair Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) told Matt and Miles. In recent months, U.S. officials have said Moscow is developing an anti-satellite nuclear weapon in space, freaking out Washington and causing U.S. officials to use the United Nations and countries such as China and India to persuade Russia to back down from launching it into orbit. Turner, who has been sounding alarms about the space nuke since (cryptically) unveiling the issue in February, said he’s “dissatisfied with the progress” the Biden administration has been making with those talks. The Ohio Republican suggested that NATO may have a bigger role to play in the matter: “I recommended to the administration that they raise this issue and seek an agreement among the NATO allies.” As Matt reports (for Pros!), the U.S. briefed all NATO members about the space nuke threat months ago, and it continues to be a regular topic of conversation among allies, according to a senior administration official. TRAIN UKRAINE: A group of House Democrats is urging the Pentagon to expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots as Kyiv races to improve its defenses against Russia, our own JOE GOULD reports. The lawmakers, led by Rep. ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) are backing Ukraine’s request for 10 more of their F-16 pilots to be trained this year, and asked Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in a letter today to make it happen. “The request comes at a critical juncture in Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia, where the deployment of F-16 aircraft has the potential to significantly influence the outcome of the war,” they write. “By the end of the year, Ukraine will have more F-16 aircraft than they will have qualified pilots to fly them.”
| | | |   | | | | | TAIWAN’S UKRAINE THOUGHTS: Taiwan’s envoy to Washington warned that China’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric toward the self-governing island is backfiring as its leadership seeks to avoid suffering the same fate as Ukraine. In an interview with The Washington Post’s ISHAAN THAROOR, ALEXANDER TAH-RAY YUI, the de facto Taiwanese ambassador to the United States, said that Taipei’s recent efforts to bump defense spending reflect the lessons they’ve learned from the international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “People will only help you if you help yourself,” Yui said. Yui added that China’s saber-rattling is only alienating Taiwan and reducing the likelihood of a peaceful settlement of cross-straits tensions. “The more [the People’s Republic of China] tries to squash Taiwan’s internal freedom and our own sovereignty and insist that we are a ‘renegade province’ of theirs, the more actually they’re pushing us away,” Yui said. PARTY NOT IN THE USA: China bashed the U.S. today for saying it wasn’t invited to take part in its moon sample probe, which loyal NatSec Daily readers will remember reading about on Friday. “The U.S. side seems to have forgotten to mention their domestic legislation such as the Wolf Amendment,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING told reporters today, referring to a U.S. law that makes it more difficult for Washington and Beijing to collab in space. “The real question is whether the U.S. scientists and institutions are allowed by their own government to participate in exchanges and cooperation with China.” ROCKET MAN’S MOVES: North Korea fired back at a drill between the U.S., South Korea and Japan, launching two ballistic missiles towards South Korean waters, according to the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM. It’s only the latest show of force from North Korean leader Kim, who also unveiled a line of pins with his face on them this week as he looks to promote his cult of personality. It raises Kim to the level of his father and grandfather, who both issued versions of pins that residents of the Hermit Kingdom are required to wear over their hearts.
| | — First-round results in France’s legislative elections indicate that EMMANUEL MACRON’s Together party will lose its legislative majority. The far-right National Rally and far-left New Popular Front are expected to win the most seats in the next National Assembly, according to POLITICO projections. Macron will be only the third president since France adopted its 1959 constitution to experience “cohabitation,” or divided government, and Paris is expected to shift in its posture towards Ukraine and Israel accordingly. — Hungary began its six-month European Union presidency rotation today, a reign which right-wing Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN is characterizing with his Make Europe Great Again slogan in homage to DONALD TRUMP. — South African President CYRIL RAMAPHOSA named a new cabinet today, reflecting his African National Congress party’s coalition with the centrist Democratic Alliance party — MARTIN GRIFFITHS, the United Nations’ top official for coordinating humanitarian relief, stepped down Sunday. U.N. Secretary General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES has yet to name a replacement for Griffths, even as the international community struggles to meet crises in Gaza and Sudan. — JENNIFER KAVANAGH is joining Defense Priorities as a senior fellow and director of military analysis. She was most recently a senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. — COREY JACOBSON is now chief of staff at the Defense Department’s office of strategic capital. He most recently was senior adviser to the first assistant secretary of Defense for space policy.
| | — MARK LEONARD, CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER, NATHALIE TOCCI, CARL BILDT, ROBIN NIBLETT, RADOSLAW SIKORSKI, GUNTRAM WOLFF, BILAHARI KAUSIKAN, IVAN KRASTEV, and STEFAN THEIL, Foreign Policy: Europe alone — LUIS SIMÓN, War on the Rocks: NATO should think big about the Indo-Pacific — TARAS REVUNETS, POLITICO: Letter from Ukraine: How will my mom survive if I’m drafted?
| | — Association of the U.S. Army, 8 a.m.: Forum about cyber and information advantage. — Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Force design 2030. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: Aerospace Nation: Want better results in Ukraine? Senior leader views. — Heritage Foundation, 11 a.m.: Lecture from former deputy National Security Adviser MATT POTTINGER on the importance of Taiwan and what can be done to counter the threat of the People's Republic of China. — Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: Discussion about the future of the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement and investment cooperation. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has no plan for her future. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who knows exactly how his life will go.
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