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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we spill on Taiwan's concerns about Donald Trump's criticism of its defense and industrial policies; unpack the rhetoric from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's first trip to China and talk to a high-profile victim of Hong Kong's fast-disappearing media freedom. And we profile a book that argues the viability of the Biden administration's championing of the "rules-based international order" requires clarity on "what the rules are and why they must be defended.
Let's get to it. — Phelim.
‘QUITE A STIR’ — TRUMP SPOOKS TAIWAN
Donald Trump accused Taiwan of taking away the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry. | Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images |
The political class of Taiwan is increasingly uneasy that a Donald Trump victory in November may make the self-governing island a bargaining chip in U.S. diplomacy with Beijing.
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Trump accused Taiwan of taking away the U.S. semiconductor manufacturing industry, said the island should pay the U.S. for protection from China and suggested that trying to defend the island would be futile. Those comments caused "quite a stir" in Taiwan, said Tony Hu, a former senior Taiwan country director at the Pentagon and now based in Taipei.
Trump's words have fueled fears that a Trump presidency may adopt a transactional approach to tensions across the Taiwan Strait that could threaten the island's de facto independence from Chinese rule. "We should be very concerned — Trump thinks like a businessman, even in terms of U.S. national security and global geo-politics," Hu said.
That's even though his statements are misleading at best. Taiwan pays for U.S. defensive weaponry "to the tune of billions of dollars," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters in response to Trump's comments. And blaming Taiwan for the decline of the U.S. semiconductor business is also inaccurate. "Much of the business that Taiwan specializes in — manufacturing chips for smartphones and AI applications — did not exist at their current scale before they began to be concentrated in Taiwan," said Chris Miller, associate professor in international history at Tufts' Fletcher School and the author of "Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology."
That fact-checking isn't calming nerves in Taipei. That's especially true given
Trump's praise this week for Chinese leader Xi Jinping as "a brilliant man." "If Trump sees a deal to be made with China and Taiwan is a part of it, … that could be a pretty bad situation," said Jason Hsu, former legislator-at-large for Taiwan's opposition KMT party and currently a Mason Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School. Hsu warned that Taiwan may be in for "a period of painful adjustment" if Trump wins a second term.
Republican lawmakers including Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) have downplayed Trump's comments and insisted GOP support for Taiwan remains rock solid. But that's a hard sell in Taipei given that the Republican National Committee's 2024 party platform released this month omits mention of Taiwan for the first time since 1980.
Taiwan's diplomatic outpost in Washington has chosen to ignore Trump's comments, but Taiwan's Premier Cho Jung-tai responded by telling reporters that the island is "willing to take on more responsibility" for its self-defense.
But the Taiwan government's ability to allocate more funding for that defense is no easy task. Military budgeting "is in the hands of the legislature and convincing it to provide more money to provide better assistance to the military is so difficult," said Taiwan's former defense minister Andrew Nien-dzu Yang, who led negotiations for U.S. weapons systems while in office.
A more troubling question raised by Trump's comments is the willingness of the U.S. public to support American blood and treasure to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression. There is no guarantee that Americans will "stick themselves out to defend Taiwan thousands of miles away when a lot of people can't tell whether it's Taiwan or Thailand or Tokyo," said Douglas Paal, who was director of the U.S. diplomatic outpost in Taipei, the American Institute in Taiwan, under President George W. Bush.
"When politicians get up on high horses and talk about doing this and that on behalf of Taiwan, they may look behind them and find that no Indians are lined up behind the chief," Paal said.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— RATNER TOUTS 'PHENOMENALLY CONSEQUENTIAL' ASIA OUTREACH: The Biden administration will roll out a "phenomenally consequential" bout of Indo-Pacific-focused diplomacy over the next 10 days," the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, Ely Ratner, said at an American Enterprise Institute event on Wednesday. That outreach includes Secretary of State Lloyd Austin's upcoming trilateral meeting with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts on Sunday and a follow-on meeting that Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken plan to hold with their Japanese and Philippine counterparts later in the week. Those events will render "really important alliance deliverables," Ratner said, without elaborating. They'll include initiatives with Japan on "deeper defense industrial base cooperation," assistant secretary of state Daniel Kritenbrink said at the same event.
— BEIJING ICES PENTAGON'S ARCTIC STRATEGY: The Chinese government has lashed out at a Pentagon report accusing Beijing of trying to muscle its way into the Arctic region to pursue "investments in infrastructure and natural resources." The report "misrepresented China's Arctic policy and pointed fingers at China's normal activities in the Arctic conducted in full compliance with international law," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Tuesday. The Pentagon report published Monday said Beijing's strategy as a non-Arctic nation is to promote the region "as a 'global commons' in order to shift Arctic governance in its favor."
— NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION TARGETS RESEARCH PROTECTION: The Biden administration will plow $67 million over the next five years into a project aimed to fend off "some foreign entities'" efforts to "unethically or even unlawfully access or use U.S. research" on college campuses, the National Science Foundation said in a statement Wednesday. NSF didn't name any specific countries, but the initiative aligns with U.S. government efforts to counter Chinese government efforts to pilfer cutting edge research and technology from U.S. academia. The initiative will tap the expertise of academic partners including Stanford's Hoover Institution "on sensitive research, threat types, geopolitical analysis and international collaboration," the statement said.
The FBI has warned that some Chinese post-graduate and postdoctoral researchers "may serve as collectors, wittingly, or unwittingly, of economic, scientific and technological intelligence from U.S. institutions to ultimately benefit Chinese academic institutions and businesses."
TRANSLATING EUROPE
— UKRAINE HAILS CHINA AS 'FORCE FOR PEACE': Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Guangzhou on Thursday, his first visit to China since Russia's full-scale invasion started in 2022. According to the Ukrainian foreign ministry, the two discussed "the search for ways to stop Russian aggression and China's possible role in achieving a lasting and just peace."
"China's role as a global force for peace is important," Kuleba said, while also warning Wang that the Russian war "hinders" China's trading relationship with Europe.
The top Chinese envoy urged Kyiv to negotiate. "Although the conditions and timing are not yet ripe, we support all efforts conducive to peace and stand ready to continue to play a constructive role for a ceasefire and resumption of peace talks," Wang said, according to the official statement.
— PM LI TELLS EU'S LEADING HAWK TO ENHANCE TRUST: Chinese Premier Li Qiang called on newly reelected European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to build more trust with Beijing. "At present, China-EU relations have shown a momentum of steady development," Li said in a congratulatory message. "China is ready to work with the EU to consolidate the political foundation of China-EU relations, enhance strategic mutual trust, [and] strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation on all fronts."
Von der Leyen, who thanked "dear POTUS Biden" for his congratulatory call, didn't post anything on X for Li's call.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
The territory's authorities claim they’ve "all along been implementing fully and enforcing vigorously sanctions.” | Samantha Sin/Getty Images |
— REPORT: HK'S 'GONE ROGUE' FOR RUSSIA: A report published this week by the non-profit pro-democracy advocacy group The Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation accuses the territory of serving as a conduit for unlawful trade and financial transactions with Russia, Iran and North Korea. Hong Kong "has gone rogue, serving some of the world's most brutal regimes and damaging international security interests by smuggling military technology, money and prohibited commodities through the territory to flout sanctions," targeting Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang, the report said. Hong Kong's government denied those allegations. The territory's authorities have "all along been implementing fully and enforcing vigorously the sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council pursuant to the instructions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China," a Hong Kong government spokesperson said in a statement Wednesday.
— REPORT: CHINESE AGGRESSION MERITS 'AVALANCHE DECOUPLING': A report launched Thursday by the Stanford University-based public policy think tank, the Hoover Institution, urges U.S. policymakers and their allies and partners to prepare an economic "avalanche decoupling" response to a possible future crisis across the Taiwan Strait. That would involve a three-part strategy combining tariffs on Chinese imports, moving to devalue China's currency and aiding countries targeted with Chinese economic coercion for supporting such measures. Those moves would "harness market forces and incentivize third countries" to face down Chinese aggression, the report said.
THREE MINUTES WITH…
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Selina Cheng is a Hong Kong journalist fired by The Wall Street Journal last week due to what the paper called "restructuring." Cheng — and media freedom advocacy groups — say her dismissal was a response to Cheng's refusal to submit to her editors' demands that she withdraw her candidacy in an election for chair of the non-profit Hong Kong Journalists Association. The Wall Street Journal declined to comment to POLITICO, but told the Hong Kong Free Press that that paper had "made some personnel changes" but declined to comment on Cheng's dismissal. Cheng spoke to China Watcher about why her firing matters.
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What accounts for the difference in The WSJ's strong appeals for media freedom in the case of imprisoned journalist Evan Gershkovich in Russia but not for you in Hong Kong?
Evan was on a reporting trip for The Wall Street Journal when he was detained — it was directly related to his contribution to The Wall Street Journal. My role at HKJA is outside of The Wall Street Journal newsroom, so my speculation is that the Journal does not want to be associated with these activities outside of the company. Even though the Wall Street Journal's news operation does directly benefit from the press freedom that HKJA and myself advocate for.
How surprised are you that The WSJ is refusing to reverse your dismissal despite the intense criticism it's receiving for firing you?
News organizations face criticism every day for a variety of reasons, whether it's because of staffing or editorial decisions. Newsrooms and their management tend to stand their ground — I'm not surprised that they wouldn't reverse this.
What legal actions are you considering?
I'm considering holding the company liable for breach of employment law in Hong Kong, which does protect the basic human right of participating in union activities and taking out union officer positions.
What for you would be the most optimal outcome of this situation?
The most optimal outcome is if the Journal would reverse their decision and reinstate me. I don't hold out hope that this would happen now the damage is already done.
HEADLINES
Newsweek: China's expanding Arctic ambitions challenge the U.S. and NATO
Foreign Policy: China and the U.S. Are careening toward a South China Sea crisis
The Telegraph: I love Hong Kong – but I've renounced my citizenship for my own safety
CSIS: Third Plenum Hot Takes: Skepticism and Concern
HEADS UP
— U.S.-AUSTRALIA TWO-PLUS-TWO IN AUGUST: Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin will convene the 2024 Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations with their Australian counterparts in Annapolis, Maryland, on Aug. 6. Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defense Richard Marles and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Penny Wong will sit down with Blinken and Austin "to discuss the Unbreakable Alliance between Australia and the United States," the Pentagon said in a statement.
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
The China Race. | Amane Kaneko/SUNY Press |
The Book: The China Race: Global Competition for Alternative World Orders
The Author: Fei-Ling Wang is a professor of international affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology's Sam Nunn School of International Affairs
Responses have been edited for length and clarity.
What is the most important takeaway from your book about Chinese military pilot defectors to Taiwan?
The PRC-U.S. rivalry is determining the fate of two incompatible ways of governance and two alternative world orders: autocracy versus democratic rule of law and world empire versus the Westphalian system [in which countries have exclusive control of territory within their borders].
With a strategy of firm containment and smart engagement to transform China, the U.S. has an excellent chance of prevailing.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
The strange international coalition — authoritarianists, isolationists and capitalists on the right; globalists and socialists-communists on the left—pushing a form of centralized world political governance that aligns with the CCP's ultimate goal of a China-led international system modeled on Xi Jinping's various global initiatives.
How compelling to developing countries is the Biden administration's narrative of a "rules-based international order" versus China's pitch for a new multilateralism centered around Xi Jinping's Global Security, Global Development and Global Civilization Initiatives?
It is very compelling to call for defending the existing rules-based world order. But clarity is needed about what the rules are and why they must be defended, how they can be improved and where changes can be made to address the concerns of developing countries.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
MANY THANKS TO: Heidi Vogt and digital producers Tara Gnewikow and Malek Saleh. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at pkine@politico.com slau@politico.eu
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