| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | | | BIDEN UNPLUGGED — Is it just us, or does non-candidate JOE BIDEN seem a little more liberated these days? Check out these excerpts from his back and forth with reporters at the White House yesterday: Q: Will Bidenomics continue under Vice President [KAMALA] HARRIS? THE PRESIDENT: It doesn’t matter what the hell you call it, the economy is going to continue. With — all the legislation we passed, it’s working. In case you haven’t noticed, it’s working. Q: How much does it bother you that Vice President Harris might soon, for political reasons, start to distance herself from your economic plan? THE PRESIDENT: She’s not going to. Q: Mr. [DONALD] TRUMP said he wants to “make America affordable again.” Your response? THE PRESIDENT: (Laughs.) Well, he ought to get a job. Q: When will the vice president hold a news conference? THE PRESIDENT: You have to ask her. Q: Will there be a deal for the hostages in Israel? THE PRESIDENT: (Crosses fingers.) Q: Do you have any regrets? THE PRESIDENT: Talking to you guys. Q: Who are you going to pick as the new ambassador to the Holy See? THE PRESIDENT: (Points to the sky.) I’ve got to check with my mom. ON THE OTHER HAND — “White House Walks Back Biden Comment on Venezuelan Election,” by Bloomberg’s Eric Martin: “Biden was asked as he left the White House … whether he supported new elections in Venezuela, and he responded ‘I do.’ … A spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council said Biden intended to speak to the absurdity of Venezuelan President [NICOLÁS] MADURO failing to come clean after claiming victory.”
|  Dem strategist Doug Sosnik sees VP Kamala Harris in more historic terms than do a lot of pundits in Washington, where she has often been underestimated. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: DOUG SOSNIK — Our old friend is out today with a new comprehensive memo on the state of the presidential race and a NYT guest essay breaking down Trump and Harris’ paths to victory in the Electoral College. We talked to him about all of it on this week’s Deep Dive Podcast. “It is a completely different campaign than it was 30 days ago in virtually every sense of the word,” he said. Some major takeaways: — The gender gap is bigger than ever: The gap refers to the fact that women have long been voting at higher rates than men and that women have favored the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1980. It could determine the outcome of the race. “There’s a confluence of events that have come together that suggest to me that it's going to be historic this year,” Sosnik said.
| 
| It’s likely to widen this year for five big reasons:
- The prominence of abortion rights as a major voting issue (Gallup reports the highest percentage of women in decades of polling self-describing as pro-choice);
- The decade-plus trend of college-educated women moving toward the Democratic Party is being revved up by Trump and backlash to the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs;
- Enthusiasm for Harris among Black women, “who have historically been the single biggest driver in the gender gap between parties,” is outstripping even “what the country experienced during [BARACK] OBAMA’s campaigns”;
- Gen Z women, who are disproportionately Democratic, and;
- Trump’s “intemperate remarks about Harris’s sex and race and JD VANCE’s “long history of making disparaging remarks about women.”
— The key groups to watch in the seven battleground states: Black voters in Georgia and North Carolina, and Latino voters in Arizona and Nevada: Harris has erased much of Biden’s weakness among Black voters but has not yet bounced back to 2020 levels among Latinos. White working-class voters: Nationally, they are now below 40% of the electorate, but in the three midwestern battlegrounds they are above 50% (Wisconsin 56%, Michigan 53% and Pennsylvania 51%). NIKKI HALEY voters: Sosnik thinks they still matter, noting that “[d]isenchanted Republican voters were key to the Democrats’ success in the 2022 mid-term elections in the battleground states.” Independent voters: He points to a recent Cook Political Report poll of the battlegrounds that has Harris up 8 points over Trump among independents. — Pathways to victory. In Sosnik’s Times piece, there’s a nice interactive laying out how both candidates can put together electoral college wins. Harris’ potential routes: She has 226 likely electoral votes and, compared to JOE BIDEN, several new opportunities to get to 270. Here’s how she can win: The Pennsylvania path:
- 226 + Pennsylvania (19 EVs) + Michigan (15 EVs) and Wisconsin (10 EVs). Under this scenario, Harris must carry Nebraska’s second congressional district, based in Omaha, or the race would end in a tie and a Trump victory in the House. (There’s a reason that Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ, who was born in Nebraskas, is going there tomorrow!)
- 226 + Pennsylvania + Wisconsin and Georgia (16 EVs)
- 226 + Pennsylvania + Wisconsin, Arizona (11 EVs) and Nevada (6 EVs)
- 226 + Pennsylvania + Michigan and Arizona
- 226 + Pennsylvania + Michigan and Georgia
- 226 + Pennsylvania + Georgia and Arizona
The non-Pennsylvania path:
- 226 + Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia + Arizona
- 226 + Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia + Nevada
Trump’s potential routes: He begins with 219 likely electoral votes. Sosnik sees North Carolina (16 EVs) as the linchpin. Here’s how Trump can win: The Georgia paths:
- 219 + North Carolina and Georgia + Pennsylvania
- 219 + North Carolina and Georgia + Michigan and Nevada
- 219 + North Carolina and Georgia + Michigan and Arizona
- 219 + North Carolina and Georgia + Wisconsin and Arizona
The non-Georgia paths:
- 219 + North Carolina + Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin
- 219 + North Carolina + Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania
— A movement, not a campaign? Finally, Sosnik sees Harris in more historic terms than do a lot of pundits in Washington, where she has often been underestimated. “In my political lifetime, there have been three political movements in presidential politics,” he told us. “And to be clear, a movement in politics is way bigger than a campaign.” He mentioned RONALD REAGAN in 1980, Obama in 2008, and Trump in 2016. “Harris is not the leader of a movement right now,” he said. “She's still the leader of a campaign. But she has been making strides and she could — by the end of the month, particularly if the convention goes well in Chicago — she could be at a point where she's a head of a movement which is bigger than a candidate, and that's pretty much unstoppable. … She's not that far from being there. And I think it's a combination of her circumstances, but also, and probably more importantly, how she's handled herself as a candidate so far.” Listen to the full conversation on Apple Podcasts or Spotify … Read Sosnik’s latest memo Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Comcast: Did you know that most of the data on your smartphone travels over WiFi, not cellular? Thanks to WiFi innovation by Comcast, our customers connect over a billion devices to our network each year. Unlicensed spectrum is key to a fast and secure WiFi experience at home and on the go. Comcast leads the way by developing cutting-edge WiFi gateways that maximize our multi-gig broadband network and spectrum made available by the FCC. Learn more. | | | JUST IN — “Americans’ first impressions of Walz are positive, negative for Vance,” by WaPo’s Emily Guskin: “A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll finds 32 percent of Americans have a favorable impression of Vance and 42 percent find him unfavorable, a net favorability rating of -10 points. For Walz, 39 percent are favorable and 30 percent are unfavorable, giving him a net positive rating of nine points. It’s still early for both Vance and Walz, with more than one-quarter of Americans saying they don’t have an opinion of each.” YOU CAN CALL ME [KAM]AL[A] — Despite grumbling in some corners about it being a sign of disrespect, the Harris campaign is actually leaning into referring to the VP by her first name, Myah Ward reports from Milwaukee. Calling her “Kamala” is part of an intentional rebrand. PEOPLE YOU SHOULD KNOW, PART I — “The Christian Conservative Who’s Reinventing Womanhood,” by The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey: “A rising star on the religious right thanks to her ‘Relatable’ podcast, ALLIE BETH STUCKEY knows what’s good for you.” PEOPLE YOU SHOULD KNOW, PART II — Wired’s Makena Kelly has a helpful breakdown of the influencers on the right and left driving political content online for mostly younger news consumers. ELON MUSK has the biggest reach, but plenty of others who are not such household names are nonetheless connecting with millions. INSIDE HARRIS’ PREP SESSIONS — At Howard University, Harris has been preparing to share the debate stage with Trump — which will be the first time they meet, NYT’s Katie Rogers, Maya King and Reid Epstein report. ROHINI KOSOGLU, KAREN DUNN and SEAN CLEGG are involved with the prep. TALK OF THIS TOWN — “Right on Red: The Culture War Comes for Traffic Lights,” by Michael Schaffer: “In Democrat-dominated cities, bike lanes and pedestrian crossings are taking precedence over cars. GOP lawmakers have other ideas.”
| | | | A message from Comcast: Unlicensed spectrum is key to a fast and secure WiFi experience at home and on the go. Comcast leads the way by developing cutting-edge WiFi gateways that maximize our multi-gig broadband network and spectrum made available by the FCC. Learn more. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House and the Senate are out. What we’re watching … We’re now about halfway through the House’s summer recess, and one big governing decision is bearing down on Speaker MIKE JOHNSON: How long to punt government spending past the Sept. 30 end of fiscal 2024? If you ask appropriators, Democratic leaders and the White House, they would sure like a chance to pass fiscal 2025 spending bills in the lame-duck session after the election. But hard-liners in the House Freedom Caucus are pushing for a March deadline, in the expectation that Trump will then be signing the bills. Roll Call’s Aidan Quigley reports that Johnson is considering it, but expect the pushback elsewhere on the Hill to be fierce. At the White House Biden will sign a proclamation to designate the Springfield 1908 Race Riot National Monument in the Oval Office at 11:15 a.m. He’ll head to Camp David in the afternoon. On the trail Harris will travel to and from Raleigh for her big economic policy event at 2:45 p.m. Her campaign rolled out a suite of new housing policies in advance last night, as WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Andrew Restuccia report, focused on increasing supply and helping first-time homebuyers. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will speak in Milwaukee at noon Eastern — part of the Trump campaign’s strategy to deploy him principally in the three Rust Belt swing states, he tells the N.Y. Post’s Diana Glebova aboard Trump Force Two.
| | | | WELCOME TO THE CNN-POLITICO GRILL AT THE DNC! If you are in Chi-Town next week, join us at the CNN-POLITICO Grill just steps from the United Center for daily events and live programs. Featuring an all-star lineup of the most influential Democrats including Gov. JB Pritzker, Sen. Chuck Schumer, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, the Honorable Pete Buttigieg, Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Laphonza Butler, New York City Mayor Eric Adams and many more surprise guests. Don’t miss out on the buzziest conversations and newsworthy events hosted by POLITICO’s top reporters and editors. RSVP HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | TRUMP CARDS
|  The Secret Service is planning for a shield of bulletproof glass around Donald Trump's podium at outdoor rallies. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | SAFETY FIRST — Trump has stuck to indoor rallies since he was nearly assassinated in Butler, Pennsylvania, but returning to outdoor events may be in the offing. The Secret Service is planning for a shield of bulletproof glass around his podium at such rallies, which it otherwise does only for sitting presidents, ABC’s Katherine Faulders, Aaron Katersky and Luke Barr scooped. Trump wants to return to outdoor venues, they report, but he wants to make sure they’re safe, which could prompt the unprecedented decision from the Secret Service. He’d likely be enclosed on three sides by UpArmored ballistic glass, which the agency is ordering to place around the country so it can be readily transported to his rally locations. More top reads:
- Delay, delay, delay: Trump’s lawyers have asked Justice JUAN MERCHAN to postpone sentencing for his criminal hush money conviction until after the election. More from The Hill
- Show us the money: “Trump’s financial disclosure shows millions made from licensing deals but costly civil judgments,” by CNN’s Casey Tolan, David Wright, Steve Contorno, Fredreka Schouten and Jeremy Herb: “The documents are a reminder of Trump’s business interests all across the globe. … It also reveals tidbits about how the president keeps his fortune, from millions of dollars’ worth of cryptocurrency to a six-figure investment in gold bars. … [T]he largest segment of Trump’s net worth, at least on paper, is his ownership share of Trump Media & Technology Group.”
THE WHITE HOUSE CLEANUP ON AISLE CARACAS — “White House Walks Back Biden Comment on Venezuelan Election,” by Bloomberg’s Eric Martin: “Biden was asked as he left the White House … whether he supported new elections in Venezuela, and he responded ‘I do.’ But the scene was chaotic … A spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council said Biden intended to speak to the absurdity of Venezuelan President [NICOLÁS] MADURO failing to come clean after claiming victory.” JUDICIARY SQUARE HEADS UP — Having failed to do so in Georgia, MARK MEADOWS is now seeking in Arizona to move his criminal election subversion case from state to federal court, WaPo’s Yvonne Wingett Sanchez reports from Phoenix. 2024 WATCH
|  The Centre for Climate Reporting secretly recorded a video of Russell Vought talking about his extensive plans to remake the federal government. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | COMING SOON TO A DIGITAL AD NEAR YOU — Trump’s denials be damned, Project 2025 keeps coming back to haunt him. Men working for the Centre for Climate Reporting secretly recorded a video of RUSSELL VOUGHT talking about his extensive plans to remake the federal government during a second Trump term, per CNN’s Curt Devine, Casey Tolan, Audrey Ash and Kyung Lah. On hidden camera, Vought makes clear that his Center for Renewing America is creating “shadow” agencies already, laying the plans “to take control of these bureaucracies,” “destroying” their independence, and preparing for mass deportations. Trump’s disavowals of Project 2025 were already unconvincing to any Playbook reader, but Vought says that Trump’s distancing was simply “graduate-level politics.” He says Trump has “blessed” his own group’s work. Vought, a potential future White House chief of staff, also talks about needing “to get us off of multiculturalism” and says Republicans should focus more on “Christian nation-ism” instead of “religious liberty.” The Center for Renewing America pooh-poohed the videos as revealing nothing new. More top reads:
- Spoiler alert: ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and CORNEL WEST are set to turn in signatures today to get on the Arizona ballot, per KPNX-TV’s Brahm Resnik.
- Conventional wisdom: Just days before the convention starts, the Democratic Party still hasn’t updated its platform to swap Biden’s name out for Harris, AP’s Will Weissert reports. But more plans are starting to take shape: KATE COX, a Texan who had to travel out of state to get an abortion, will speak at the convention, per Reuters’ Evan Garcia in Dallas. And for those not inside the United Center, there will be a watch party at Soldier Field, per the Chicago Sun-Times’ Katie Anthony.
- Breaking down Walz: Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ’s recent tenure as chair of the Democratic Governors Association helped build his profile and his network of relationships, a crucial step on the path to being chosen as Harris’ running mate, Holly Otterbein, Elena Schneider and Meredith Lee Hill report. The reaction has been more muted in Walz’s Nebraska hometown, the L.A. Times’ Hailey Branson-Potts reports from Valentine, where the population leans more conservative/libertarian. (There’s also an amazing anecdote about his father’s work in a ghost-haunted schoolhouse.)
- Ad it up: Harris has now started running ads on Fox News, per Axios’ Alex Thompson.
- Narrative watch: Trump is increasingly criticizing Harris over California’s criminal justice reform Proposition 47 from 2014, even though Harris wasn’t involved in the campaign for it, Emily Schultheis reports.
| | | | A message from Comcast:   Unlicensed wireless spectrum is key to fast and secure WiFi. Learn more. | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD QUESTIONS IN KURSK — “Complications loom for US arms policy as Ukraine moves deeper into Russia,” by Reuters’ Idrees Ali and Steve Holland: “The U.S. so far deems Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region a protective move appropriate for Kyiv to use U.S. equipment, officials in Washington said, but they expressed worries about potential complications as Ukrainian troops push further into enemy territory.” PULLOUT FALLOUT — “‘They Promised to Take Out Our Families’: The Afghans America Left Behind,” by Ariane Luthi in Foreign Policy: “AHMAD HAIDARI flew a U.S.-funded helicopter out of Kabul in August 2021 and hasn’t seen his wife and children since.” MEDIAWATCH YOWZA — “‘Washington Post’ reviews star columnist Taylor Lorenz’s ‘war criminal’ jab at Biden,” by NPR’s David Folkenflik MORE POLITICS
|  Meta warned yesterday that pro-Russian forces are still working to try to mold Americans online. | Thibault Camus, File/AP Photo | THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — So far (and that’s a big caveat), apocalyptic fears about artificial intelligence/deepfakes upending the 2024 campaign haven’t come to pass, Mohar Chatterjee reports. Instead, AI is being used in much quieter ways, as algorithms help campaigns shape their voter targeting efforts — more technological evolution than revolution. Of course, we still have a few months to go, and a viral deepfake could certainly wreak havoc right around the election. Plenty of false AI-generated images are still spreading misinformation around the internet, and so-called deepfake detectors can fail to catch the election fakers, WaPo’s Kevin Schaul, Pranshu Verma and Cat Zakrzewski report. Then there’s the more familiar threat of foreign countries attempting to interfere in the election. Notably, before and after a favorable Supreme Court ruling, the FBI and other feds have once again started working with social media companies to block disinformation and malign influence campaigns from spreading, NYT’s Steven Lee Myers reports. That includes two Russian-linked efforts thwarted just in recent weeks. And Meta warned yesterday that pro-Russian forces are still working to try to mold Americans online, per NBC’s Kevin Collier. More top reads: - Primary colors: One of the most pivotal primary elections for control of the House is in Alaska, Roll Call’s Allison Mollenkamp previews. The top four finishers will advance to a ranked-choice election in November, and plenty could hinge on who comes in second to Democratic Rep. MARY PELTOLA next week. NICK BEGICH has said that if he’s not the top Republican, he’ll drop out of the general, which could help the GOP consolidate support. But Lt. Gov. NANCY DAHLSTROM, who’s backed by Trump and top D.C. Republicans, hasn’t said the same. Meanwhile, Dems are maneuvering to make sure Republican GERALD HEIKES nabs the fourth spot.
- Keys to the Keystone State: The bad blood runs deep between two rising Pennsylvania Democrats, Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO and Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN, NBC’s Allan Smith reports. A 2023 flood-response event where Fetterman felt Shapiro snubbed him was a particular flashpoint.
TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Susan Glasser, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Tarini Parti and Chuck Todd. SUNDAY SO FAR … FOX “Fox News Sunday,” live from Chicago: Sen JD Vance (R-Ohio) … Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). Legal panel: Jonathan Turley, Tom Dupree and Elizabeth Wydra. Panel: Brit Hume, Karl Rove, Jessica Tarlov and Juan Williams. Sunday special: Behind the scenes at the convention. CNN “State of the Union”: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Panel: David Urban, David Axelrod, Kristen Soltis Anderson and Ashley Allison. CBS “Face the Nation”: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear … Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Austan Goolsbee. NBC “Meet the Press”: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer … Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Panel: Mary Ann Ahern, Matt Gorman, Kelly O’Donnell and Symone Sanders-Townsend. MSNBC “The Weekend”: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul … Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) … DNC Chair Jaime Harrison … Quentin Fulks. ABC “This Week”: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) … Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson. Panel: Donna Brazile and Reince Priebus. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) … Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson. Panel: George Will, Julia Manchester, Daniella Diaz and David Swerdlick.
| | | | DON’T MISS OUR AI & TECH SUMMIT: Join POLITICO’s AI & Tech Summit for exclusive interviews and conversations with senior tech leaders, lawmakers, officials and stakeholders about where the rising energy around global competition — and the sense of potential around AI and restoring American tech knowhow — is driving tech policy and investment. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Shepard Fairey gave Kamala Harris the “Hope” poster treatment. Dimitri Simes’ property was raided by the FBI. JD Vance is winding down his old charity. Vladimir Kara-Murza joined Joe Biden in the White House. Paul Whelan wears the flag pin Biden gave him daily. Sarah McBride usually consumes nothing but coffee before dinner. AND THE AWARD GOES TO — The Edward R. Murrow Awards announced their 2024 winners. The awardees include many outlets’ coverage of the Israel-Hamas war, the documentary “20 Days in Mariupol,” and “overall excellence” from ABC News, CBS News Radio, the Boston Globe and ProPublica. TRANSITIONS — Jeff Micklos will be the next president and CEO of the National Association of ACOs. He currently is executive director of the Health Care Transformation Task Force. … The National Asian Pacific American Women's Forum has added Fajer Saeed Ebrahim as senior policy manager, Sydelle Barreto as policy manager for economic justice and the HEAL Coalition, and DJ Large as a policy associate. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Chase Oliver … Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) … New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy … Business Roundtable’s Josh Bolten … Steve Abbott of Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-Maine) office … Ramesh Ponnuru (5-0) … Michael Grunwald … Voter Participation Center’s Tom Lopach … Lisa Graves … Danielle Jones … Rational 360’s Chris Golden ... Dave DenHerder ... Neil McKiernan of American Defense International ... Tom Anfinson … Rick Chessen … Adam Hersh … Karly Lah … Michael K. Lavers … Seth Colton … Jerry Hagstrom of the Hagstrom Report/National Journal … Stacey Daniels of Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ (R-Wyo.) office … Tyler Grimm … Options Clearing Corporation’s Jim Hall ... Edelman’s Tyson Greaves … Natalie Bashner … Grant Rumley … Ellen Weissfeld … former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (D-Ill.) … Marshall Cohen … former Reps. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), Dick Zimmer (R-N.J.) (8-0) and Rick Berg (R-N.D.) … Dean Thompson … Abe Adams of Targeted Victory … AP’s Martha Mendoza … POLITICO’s Dominick Pierre … Steve Demby Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Lisa Kashinsky’s name.
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