| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan, Sue Allan and Zi-Ann Lum with Philippe J. Fournier | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → One way to think about polling. → The People’s Party of Canada posts its worst quarter ever. → Chaos in House committee. → International Trade Minister MARY NG shares fall priorities. |  | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | |
WELCOME TO AUGUST — I’m your guest-host, PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, editor-in-chief of 338Canada and Politico Ottawa contributor. July is a quiet month polling-wise in Canada, so let’s all rejoice it won’t come back for just a little more than 11 lunar cycles.
— But I don’t like polls: Yes, you do. I see the web traffic. You can’t lie to me on this one. I understand why some folks do not trust polls. I believe my role in Canadian media — I also teach college physics — is to inform voters on the science of polling. Political polling, when conducted correctly, is the most objective information you can access during a campaign, when everything is spin. — Don’t polls influence voters? Leaders tour the country and hold rallies to influence you. Partisans shout and debate on TV and podcasts to influence you. Corporations, unions and other players in civil society also try their darndest to influence you. Parties spend beaucoup bucks on advertising specifically designed and focus-grouped to influence you. Everything during a campaign is designed to influence you. — And polls? They tell you the score of the game. Let’s use a hockey analogy: Imagine you are leading 3-1, or maybe you are trailing 1-3, after two periods. You will — and should — adjust your game plan and strategy for the third period depending on the score. — Same goes with electoral politics: Politics is not a game, but elections are. You have to play to win. Access to good data is crucial to make sound decisions and craft better strategies. — So, do polls influence voters? Well, information can sway voter behavior, so yes. But missing information or misinformation can also have tremendous influence, especially today. — Damn lies and statistics: Are there push polls out there? Questions worded to skew results? Leaked internals to make you believe this or that party is doing FINE? Yes. However, I’d argue there is a Darwinian “natural selection” in the polling industry. Pollsters live off the accuracy of their results, so pollsters with poor reputations can’t stay in business very long. And dishonest or incompetent ones? I’m always willing to call them out. You’re welcome. | | DRIVING THE DAY | | FAMILIAR PATTERN — Don’t bother with the tea leaves. If you’re looking for signs there won’t be a fall election, just follow the money. The Conservatives blew past their rivals in fundraising during the second quarter of the year and continue to make gains against their own records. “Poilievre’s Conservatives continue to crush the competition,” GT&Co’s COLE HOGAN said on X as he posted the year’s tally so far on social media, showing the party ahead of the Liberals by nearly a 3:1 margin at C$20.5 million. — Coming in hot: The Big Blue Fundraising Machine raked in C$9.8 million from 52,519 donors — C$1.87 million more than the same quarter last year, according to their Elections Canada filings. If that pace holds, the party will notch another record-setter this year. The Liberals ticked up C$583,539 from last year, but are still trailing badly at C$3.8 million closing the quarter, while the NDP only managed C$1.3 million. — Love those ads: The Tories put out a fundraising appeal on Wednesday, asking supporters to chip in “so we can keep running powerful ads like this to defeat Justin Trudeau and the NDP-Liberal coalition.” The ad depicts Trudeau haunting Canadians over the summer through the carbon tax. — Not so hot: MAXIME BERNIER’s People’s Party of Canada had its worst quarter on record. The party netted C$140,057, about $223,500 less than the same quarter the previous year. The party’s returns have shown steadily declining donor numbers, with only 1,850 opening their wallets this past quarter compared to 4,097 year over year. | | ON THE HILL | |
TALK OF THE TOWN — “Nobody wins after a meeting like this one,” Bloc Québécois MP ANDRÉANNE LAROUCHE said in French near the close of Wednesday’s haywire gathering of the House committee on the status of women.
It was a massive understatement about a meeting convened in haste and adjourned in resignation. Between tears and tangents, MPs at the hybrid session expressed regret about the state of the all-party committee that was summoned on next-to-no notice in the middle of summer to address the July 25 release by Statistics Canada of police-reported crime numbers. — How it started: “I am supposed to be dead,” witness CAIT ALEXANDER told MPs at the opening of testimony that detailed unspeakable violence against girls and women. “I can’t live in Canada anymore, because it’s not safe for me,” Alexander told the committee. MEGAN WALKER, another advocate for ending violence against women, addressed MPs. They also heard from Peel Region Deputy Police Chief NICK MILINOVICH. — Off the rails: Liberal MP ANITA VANDENBELD used her question time to register complaints on how the meeting was called and the way witnesses were selected. She accused Conservatives of sullying the work of a panel that strives to stay above the partisan fray. "We do not use victims and survivors' trauma to try to score political points in this committee," Vandenbeld said. "This is cruel." She defended her government, then attempted to pivot the discussion to abortion. There was debate over which MP was first to raise her hand to speak. Things devolved from there. Even chair SHELBY KRAMP-NEUMAN, who called the meeting, at times appeared defeated. The committee never did return to its witnesses or their testimony. “I am so disheartened to see the status of women committee falling into the trap of partisanship,” Larouche later said in French to her Liberal and Conservative counterparts. “I was hoping that my committee would not fall into this trap. Women cannot become tools for political games.” — All-party fail: “Each MP held the survivor's safety in their hands,” KIM SHORE, a former gymnast and survivors' advocate, tweeted later in the day. “Today, #FEWO was not a safe space. Testifying at FEWO was one of the most healing & empowering experiences I was privileged to have. That same grace was not extended to witnesses today.” Conservative MP Anna Roberts offered another take."Trudeau’s Liberals backed by Sellout Singh’s MPs teamed up to silence victims of intimate partner violence," she tweeted. — In the National Observer: DAVID MOSCROP writes this morning: "Instead of a proper debate or deliberation based on verified information and reasons, we are getting anecdotal interventions from self-interested politicians. If anything, this is disrespectful to the public, to victims of crime, and offensive to anyone who thinks turning a few pages and taking in some information is important before overhauling one the country’s most complex files." For start-to-finish coverage of the meeting: Read ALESSIA PASSAFIUME of The Canadian Press: “Witnesses storm out of House committee in tears, decrying Liberal politicization.” And for the latest on the aftermath: Here's STEPHANIE TAYLOR of the National Post: “Abuse survivor demands Liberal MP apologize.” | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is on vacation in British Columbia.
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND had not shared her itinerary by the time we hit send on this Playbook. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a fundraiser at Verdicchio Ristorante in Sudbury. — Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET has not released his public itinerary. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in London, Ont., with NDP MP LINDSAY MATHYSSEN. At 10:15 a.m., they will meet with city residents facing “renovictions.” At 11:15 a.m., they’ll hold a media availability in Meredith Park. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Victoria, British Columbia, with BC Green Party Leader SONIA FURSTENAU and other candidates for the opening of the BC Greens South Island Campaign office at 5 p.m. local time. | | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | | 
International Trade Minister Mary Ng talked to POLITICO about her fall to-do list. | Sean Kilpatrick, The Canadian Press | ‘CLEAR-EYED FOCUS’ — Playbook caught up with International Trade Minister MARY NG last week at the Pacific NorthWest Economic Region Summit where she told us was buzzing about the 2026 FIFA World Cup, “and what kind of an opportunity that really is.” We spoke to the minister about her priorities and fall planning. Here are highlights from our conversation, edited for length and clarity. What do you know about the trade priorities of U.S. Vice President KAMALA HARRIS? Every time United States Trade Representative KATHERINE TAI talks about her government's administration, she talks about the “Biden-Harris administration,” right? Our experience is that the issues we have been working on with this administration are issues she shares as well. You’re juggling high-profile issues that include the digital services tax, potential U.S. election fallout, CPTPP in Vancouver, trade missions, free-trade deals, including the potential resumption of Canada-U.K. talks. What are your top three priorities heading into fall? Canada-U.S. continues to be important with our largest trading partner. I will continue the work with FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE to make sure we continue to speak to Americans and Canadians alike on this important relationship. Canada is chairing a meeting of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership in Vancouver later this year. A lot of work has been done already. CPTPP is a 500-million person market. I met with the U.K. secretary at G7 just a few days ago. It was a very quick meeting. He was there just for the one day because he had the equivalent to our Cabinet swearing-in the next day. I will continue to focus on helping Canadian businesses grow in international markets. I have two upcoming trade missions, one to the Philippines and one to Indonesia later in Q4. What about in places like India? I did have a chance to see my colleague at the G7 because the Italian presidency invited a number of non-G7 countries. Nothing has changed on the trade negotiations front. Everyone should know that as they are doing business with India, and as they're making investments in Canadian businesses that are doing business there, they continue to get support from me as their trade minister. That was essentially what I reiterated to my Indian counterpart. What do you really want to get done by the end of the year? My clear-eyed focus is always about Canadians. It's always about Canadian companies, and it's always about their prosperity. I don't think it's a file that ever finishes.
| | | | Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat. | | | | | | | 2024 WATCH | | |  Donald Trump takes part in a Q&A with political reporters at the National Association of Black Journalists convention. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | WEDNESDAY IN CHICAGO — “DONALD TRUMP came out swinging. And swinging. And swinging,” write IRIE SENTNER, BRAKKTON BOOKER and SHIA KAPOS. From their report: “In an explosive interview before a largely Black audience Wednesday, Trump repeatedly went after a panel of Black women journalists and suggested Vice President KAMALA HARRIS had switched her race to help her get elected. He defended his supporters who were convicted in connection to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.” — If you’re playing catch up: 5 things Trump said in a combative interview. — Next week now: Harris is expected to announce her running mate by Tuesday, when she will hold her first rally with her pick in Philadelphia, POLITICO’s HOLLY OTTERBEIN and EUGENE DANIELS report. The two will barnstorm cities in seven swing states in four days. In addition to Philadelphia, they’ll hit western Wisconsin, Detroit, Raleigh, Savannah, Phoenix and Las Vegas. — Top of POLITICO this hour: "Trump and his allies had a plan for how to hit Harris. Then he opened his mouth." | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— The story of how McKinsey installed itself at the heart of the Canadian government ultimately ends up at the prime minister’s door, JUSTIN LING writes in The Walrus.
— Top of Global News: Toronto terror suspects recorded video with weapons, ISIS flag. — POLITICO's EVA HARTOG reports: Prisoner movements in Russia fan speculation of impending swap — LISA YOUNG previews the focal event of the fall season in Alberta: The United Conservative Party annual general meeting in Red Deer. — DAVID THURTON reports for CBC News: The Canadian and German governments are taking the next step to launch Atlantic Canada's hydrogen export industry. — The New York Times goes inside a twister with “the world’s most famous storm chaser.” — POLITICO’s ANDREW MCDONALD considers the state and fate of Scotland’s independence warriors. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Sen. WANDA THOMAS BERNARD.
Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: MP COREY TOCHOR with a SLUSH PUPPiE, campaigning to bring back the plastic straw. Movers and shakers: Poilievre biographer and True North Managing Editor ANDREW LAWTON announced on his talk show he will seek the CPC nomination for Elgin—St. Thomas—London South. The news comes a day after the MP KAREN VECCHIO said she will not seek reelection. STEPHEN LUCAS, former deputy minister of health, is joining the Public Policy Forum as a fellow. Noted: Canada’s privacy commissioner has launched a probe of Ticketmaster Canada following a cybersecurity incident. | | PROZONE | |
Don’t miss our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers by KYLE DUGGAN and SUE ALLAN: Freeland poised to wrap EV tariff consult.
Pro Briefing: Kamala Harris and the World. What we expect on foreign policy and trade. Join POLITICO Pro for a deep-dive conversation with our specialist reporters about the vice president’s approach to foreign policy. Register now. In other headlines for Pros: — Alaskan senator raises alarm about Canadian gold mine spill. — The Science Based Targets initiative says carbon offsets pose “clear risks.” — Post-Chevron era tests courts’ readiness to tackle science. — Q&A: BILL MCKIBBEN on KAMALA HARRIS’ climate destiny. — Delivery drones to take flight over Dallas — offering small climate boost. | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | |
9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Office will post a legislative costing note entitled “Increasing capital gains inclusion rate.”
10 a.m. Families Minister JENNA SUDDS will be in Kitchener, Ont., with a housing announcement. 10 a.m. Minister of Mental Health and Addictions YA'ARA SAKS and Small Business Minister RECHIE VALDEZ will be at Conant Place in Oshawa to discuss affordable housing. 1:15 p.m. Heritage Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE and Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ will talk housing in Cowansville, Que. 3 p.m. Liberal MP MARC G. SERRÉ will be in Gore Bay, Ont., to make an announcement in support of women entrepreneurs. | | | TRIVIA | |
Wednesday’s answer: ROBERT BORDEN suggested to London that Canada should annex Turks and Caicos.
Props to MALCOLM MCKAY, DARRYL DAMUDE, FRANCIS BRADLEY, JOHN ECKER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, JIM CAMPBELL, GREG MACEACHERN, JOHN MERRIMAN, NANCI WAUGH, MARCEL MARCOTTE, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS and PATRICK DION. Today’s question: On this date in 1957, Canada and the U.S. announced plans to integrate air defense operations. Name Canada’s defense minister and his U.S. counterpart who issued a joint statement heralding the North American Air Defense Command. Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
