| | | | |  | | By Anusha Mathur | | Presented by |  | | | |  A person walks past a painting of Vice President Kamala Harris and a sign for the political action committee EMILY's List outside the United Center in Chicago on Sunday. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | MIND THE GAP — As the Democratic National Convention kicks off this week, polls show Kamala Harris is the beneficiary of gains across a number of traditionally Democratic groups. And they reveal that in her quest to become the first woman president, the traditional gender gap between male and female voters is beginning to resemble a chasm. Heightened concerns about reproductive rights, ignited by the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, kickstarted a widening of the gender gap as women flocked to support Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections. The current presidential matchup — featuring the vice president’s historic candidacy and Donald Trump, who is viewed very unfavorably by women — appears to be supercharging this trend. “It is now close to, or certainly in the ballpark of, the biggest gender gap we’ve ever seen,” said Paul Maslin, pollster at FM3, a public policy-oriented opinion research firm. The gender gap typically refers to the difference between the percentage of women and the percentage of men voting for the winning candidate. In 2004 and 2008, according to exit polls, that gap was seven points. By 2012, that number increased to 10 points and it grew to 11 four years later. In 2020, it rose again to 12 points, powered by Trump’s 15-point loss among female voters — 57 percent to 42 percent. Polling ahead of the 2024 race shows signs the divide has widened even further, as Trump makes gains among men while losing even more ground with women. The most recent New York Times/Siena College poll in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin revealed that 55 percent of registered men support Trump compared to just 39 percent of women — a staggering 16-point difference. The Times/Siena poll conducted last week in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina likewise found the exact same difference. Trump’s struggles with women voters date back to his first run in 2016, when a recording surfaced of him speaking in extremely crude terms about women. He has been accused of sexual misconduct by dozens of women over the years and a jury found him liable for sexually abusing advice columnist E. Jean Carroll. More recently, running mate J.D. Vance’s comments about “childless cat ladies” haven’t helped. Harris’ rise to the top of the Democratic ticket appears to have exacerbated the divide. Women are backing Harris at significantly higher rates than they did President Biden — a July Times/Siena nationwide poll of likely voters showed a 6-point difference in female support for Biden over Trump (49 percent to 43 percent), compared to a newly released CBS News/YouGov poll that shows Harris leading nationally by 12 points among likely women voters, 56 to 44. Maslin said the most pivotal reason the gender gap widened the past month is Harris’ ability to solidify undecided female voters. “If you go back in time to the moment before Biden drops out of the race, we have what I call a huge group of standoffish voters – they were unquestionably disproportionately younger, independent and a little more female,” Maslin said. “Kamala Harris just reached up and gobbled them up in droves in these last three weeks.” Although Harris made gains among registered male voters compared to Biden, they still overwhelmingly prefer Trump — and by a 16-point margin in the Rust Belt swing states and 18 points in the Sun Belt swing states. The gender gap is also more pronounced in some states than others, largely driven by the importance of abortion rights in those areas. Abortion is a highly salient issue for female voters, with 23 percent of women listing it as “the most important issue in deciding their vote in November” out of 24 different topics. In Michigan — a state where female voters were energized by an abortion referendum on the state ballot in 2022 — women support Harris over Trump by 28 points and men favor Trump by 16 points. A similar referendum will be on the ballot in Arizona this November, where women favor Harris by 26 points and men support Trump by 16 points. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania — a state with no recent changes to reproductive rights since the repeal of Roe v. Wade — the gender gap is much narrower, with women favoring Harris by just seven points and men favoring Trump by 1 point. However, the gender gap in turnout magnifies even a small gender divide in political preference. In 2020, 68.4 percent of women turned out to vote compared with 65 percent of men, with women comprising 54 percent of the electorate overall. It’s an ominous sign for the Republican ticket if the gender gap remains this wide. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at amathur@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @AnushaMathur4. Nightly will be reporting from Chicago this week. Reach out to cmchugh@politico.com with any and all DNC information or questions.
| | | | A message from Johnson&Johnson: We’re restoring the true meaning of healthcare—developing advanced treatments and smarter and less invasive solutions for today’s most complex diseases. See how we're connecting the best of Health&Care for every patient and provider. Learn more. | | | | | — Blinken says Israel OKs a plan to break the cease-fire impasse and urges Hamas to do the same: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said today that Israel has accepted a proposal to bridge differences holding up a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza, and he called on Hamas to do the same, without saying whether concerns cited by the militant group had been addressed. The high-stakes negotiations have gained urgency in recent days as diplomats hope an agreement will deter Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah from avenging the targeted killings of two top militants that were blamed on Israel. The escalating tensions have raised fears of an even more destructive regional war. — Elon Musk denies gifting Chechen warlord a Tesla truck: Elon Musk today denied that he gifted Chechnya’s strongman leader Ramzan Kadyrov a Cybertruck. “Are you seriously so retarded that you think I donated a Cybertruck to a Russian general?” Musk wrote on his social media platform, X. “Yet another example of how much the legacy media lies,” he added. Kadyrov on Saturday posted a video on Telegram of himself behind the wheel of the Tesla vehicle, which appeared to be fitted with a gun turret, and thanked Musk for sending it. — Bragg takes no position on delay of Trump sentencing as judge weighs impact of immunity ruling: Manhattan prosecutors say they won’t take a position on former President Donald Trump’s bid for a delay that would push his Sept. 18 business fraud sentencing until after the 2024 election. Instead, prosecutors working for District Attorney Alvin Bragg said they would defer to Justice Juan Merchan’s discretion, acknowledging that the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity has complicated the process and could require a delay. Merchan is the judge overseeing Trump’s case. While the decision on timing will be up to Merchan, the prosecution’s stance appeared to increase the chances that Trump’s sentencing could slip until after Election Day — a result that would ensure none of Trump’s four criminal cases will reach that juncture until after voters cast their ballots.
| | | SHAPIRO PUSHES BACK ON ANTISEMITISM CLAIMS — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said today that “antisemitism played absolutely no role” in Vice President Kamala Harris’ decision to not pick him as her running mate. Former President Donald Trump said at a rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, on Saturday that Harris “turned him down because he’s Jewish.” Shapiro, who was widely considered to be a front-runner for the VP pick, pushed back on Trump’s remarks to reporters after delivering a speech to his home state’s presidential delegation breakfast today, writes POLITICO. GOP’S CORNEL WEST GAMBIT — A group of lawyers with deep ties to the Republican Party scrambled over the weekend to rescue an effort to get independent presidential candidate Cornel West on the Arizona ballot, offering one of the clearest examples yet of the GOP’s extensive involvement in furthering the left-wing academic’s long-shot bid, reports the Associated Press. Republicans and their allies have worked to get West on the ballot in Arizona, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Nebraska, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Maine, all in the hope that West will help boost former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning later this year by pulling support from Harris. West does not need to win a state to serve as a spoiler candidate — a few thousand votes in battleground states could be decisive. LUTTIG BACKS HARRIS — Retired federal appeals court Judge J. Michael Luttig, a prominent conservative legal scholar put on the bench by President George H.W. Bush, is endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, whose candidacy he describes as an existential threat to American democracy, reports CNN. It will be the first time Luttig, a veteran of two Republican administrations, has voted for a Democrat. TRUMP RETURNS TO THE TRAIL — As Democrats kick off their convention in Chicago, Donald Trump ‘s campaign is trying to regain its footing after weeks of struggling to adjust to Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the opposing ticket, writes the Associated Press. Trump will attempt to undercut the Democratic celebration with a jam-packed schedule that includes daily events in battleground states tied to subjects where Republicans think they hold an advantage. It’s his busiest campaign week since the winter, when he faced challengers in the Republican primary. Trump is scheduled to appear today in Pennsylvania to talk about the economy and energy, on Tuesday in Michigan to talk about crime and safety, and on Wednesday in North Carolina to talk about national security at a joint appearance with his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. On Thursday, he’ll travel to the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona to talk about immigration before going Friday to Arizona and Nevada.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy answers questions at the 75th NATO Summit on July 9, 2024, in Washington, DC. | Bonnie Cash/Getty Images | PRESSING THE WEST — As Ukraine gains territory inside Russia but is pushed back in its own Donetsk region, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy heaped pressure on his Western allies for more help. “Our guys are doing great on all fronts. However, there is a need for faster delivery of supplies from our partners,” Zelenskyy said in an evening address on Sunday. “Decisions are needed, as are timely logistics for the announced aid packages. I especially address this to the United States, the United Kingdom and France.” Ukraine has been struggling to fend off Russia’s assault in the east, hence the calls for accelerated weapons deliveries. Russia is rapidly advancing near Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region. Russian forces almost seized Krasnohorivka and occupied New York, a town in the Donetsk region, a Ukrainian army brigade said in a Telegram post on Sunday. CAR WARS — Giorgia Meloni has found the ideal target in her economic patriotism crusade. Over the past months, the Italian government has engaged in a widening array of conflicts with Stellantis — the heir of Italy’s iconic carmaker Fiat, now one of the world’s biggest carmakers — for not investing enough in Italy. Stellantis — which owns a dozen brands spanning from Alfa Romeo and Maserati to Peugeot, Citroën and Jeep — has long been in the crosshairs of Meloni. When she was a lawmaker on the opposition benches, she was one of the fiercest opponents of the Franco-Italian merger between Fiat-Chrysler and Peugeot-maker PSA, which gave birth to Stellantis in 2021. Back then, Meloni warned that the deal was a dangerous French take-over of an Italian crown jewel, fueling the evergreen Franco-Italian economic rivalry.
| | | | 13 The number of Democratic national conventions attended by Joe Biden. The president has been a key convention presence for a half-century, whether as a floor manager for candidates, a nominating speaker, or the vice presidential or presidential nominee. He’ll deliver the Democratic keynote address tonight. | | | | AGING UNGRACEFULLY — If you’ve noticed a sudden accumulation of wrinkles, aches and pains or a general sensation of having grown older almost overnight, there may be a scientific explanation. Research suggests that rather than being a slow and steady process, aging occurs in at least two accelerated bursts. The study, which tracked thousands of different molecules in people aged 25 to 75, detected two major waves of age-related changes at around ages 44 and again at 60. The findings could explain why spikes in certain health issues including musculoskeletal problems and cardiovascular disease occur at certain ages, writes Hannah Devlin in the Guardian.
| | |  On this date in 1992: Former President Gerald Ford and his wife Betty watch a session of the Republican National Convention in the Houston Astrodome. | Barry Thumma/AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
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